Michael Kugelman, Director of South Asia Institute at Wilson Center, warns that India-Canada relations have reached a new low, drawing comparisons to India's strained ties with Pakistan. Allegations of Canada sheltering anti-India terrorists and growing diplomatic tensions, including expulsions and harsh rhetoric, have worsened relations. Kugelman highlights the deep-rooted issues, including Trudeau’s perceived support for Sikh causes, that contribute to New Delhi’s frustrations.
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00:00My first reaction was that one could not have imagined that things in this relationship
00:05could get worse, but they have.
00:08It certainly is reminiscent of India's relations with Pakistan, the poor allegation that we're
00:14hearing from India that Canada is sheltering and sponsoring anti-India terrorists.
00:21This is what we're used to hearing India say about Pakistan.
00:24Canada does not consider that it is harboring extremists and terrorists, and certainly
00:30this is something that India very rigorously disagrees about.
00:35India's concerns about the threats posed by Khalistan supporters and Canada's concerns
00:43about what it believes India is up to in Canada, this is a recipe for a really serious and
00:49entrenched crisis.
00:51If you read through the statement, the language is simply extraordinary, and indeed, this
00:57is the type of language that is reserved for the likes of Pakistan, and perhaps it's even
01:02harsher in this case.
01:04It reflects long-standing anger in New Delhi about Trudeau specifically and his government
01:09specifically in terms of its actions and policies.
01:13It's hard to be optimistic about this relationship righting itself, so to speak.
01:20The best we can hope for for this relationship in the coming weeks and perhaps even the coming
01:25months is not that things will get better, but more so that they don't get worse.
01:29Mumbai's first reaction was that one could not have imagined that things in this relationship
01:35could get worse, but they have.
01:37I think that this is a relationship that's now hit rock bottom, and indeed, looking at
01:43recent developments, it certainly is reminiscent of India's relations with Pakistan in terms
01:49of these extremely serious allegations being made, in terms of senior diplomats being expelled,
01:56as well as the use of blistering language in government statements.
02:01It's all there.
02:02Of course, the core allegation that we're hearing from India that Canada is sheltering
02:08and sponsoring anti-India terrorists, indeed, this is what we're used to hearing India say
02:14about Pakistan.
02:15It's remarkable, and particularly the fact that we're talking about Canada, which has
02:20been a partner of India.
02:23India has been able to strengthen ties with many countries across the West, including
02:28Canada.
02:29In that regard, it's quite striking that you have this relationship that's experienced
02:33significant levels of trade and investment, people-to-people ties, strategic convergences,
02:39and yet despite that, we've seen this gradual deterioration in relations over the last two
02:44years, and it really has hit rock bottom this week, and in great part because of this
02:48one issue, the issue of Khalistan.
02:50Canada does not consider that it is harboring extremists and terrorists, and certainly this
02:56is something that India very rigorously disagrees about, but this comes back to the issue of
03:06there being so many different factors at play here.
03:10There's the fact that this government in Canada has taken a series of positions that include
03:17expressing support for Sikhs in India in terms of the farmers' movement against the Indian
03:25government, which includes many Sikhs, and Trudeau has expressed strong support for that,
03:32and that comes back to the domestic political issue in Canada, but I don't want to overstate
03:36that as well.
03:38As I had said before, this is a two-way street here, right?
03:42I mean, there's India's concerns about what it believes is a threat based in Canada, but
03:48there's also Canada's concerns about what it views as extensive degrees of influence
03:56and meddling by the Indian government, which we've learned just on Monday that according
04:02to Canada does not only include the view that India was behind an assassination last
04:10year, but also that India's government had been involved in some way in extortion, violent
04:16activities, and other issues, depending on an extraordinary statement released by Canada
04:23on Monday.
04:24So between India's concerns about the threats posed by Khalistan supporters and Canada's
04:34concerns about what it believes India is up to in Canada, this is a recipe for a really
04:40serious and entrenched crisis in a relationship that really could stand to be in a better
04:47place but is seemingly destined to be doomed for quite some time.
04:52I was struck how in this long statement there was indeed explicit reference to Trudeau and
04:59the true government, the Trudeau government.
05:02The references were not to Canada's government or to Ottawa or the Canadian state.
05:06It was specifically to the Trudeau government, and I think that reflects longstanding anger
05:11in New Delhi about Trudeau specifically and his government specifically in terms of its
05:16actions and politics that have contributed to this position that New Delhi finds untenable.
05:24But yeah, I mean, if you read through the statement, I mean, the language is simply
05:28extraordinary.
05:29And indeed, you know, this is the type of language that is reserved for the likes of
05:35Pakistan.
05:36Perhaps it's even harsher in this case.
05:38And I think that, you know, one can attribute that to so many years of Indian frustration
05:45about India having conveyed its very serious concerns to the Canadian government and New
05:51Delhi feeling that Canada has simply been unwilling to address those concerns.
05:58And I think that, you know, really what's happened today is the straw that broke the
06:03camel's back.
06:04When you're accusing, you know, the senior most Indian diplomat in Canada of being a
06:09person of interest in these very serious affairs related to these serious allegations, I think
06:15that was just too much.
06:18But it's hard to be optimistic about this relationship righting itself, so to speak.
06:25You know, we know that it's been in a particularly bad state for more than a year since Trudeau
06:31leveled the allegation of the assassination last year.
06:36And, you know, we have seen some concessions on both sides over the last year.
06:41But I think that what happened on Monday is really, you know, it really amounts to the
06:47relationship stepping up many rungs of the escalation ladder.
06:51And, you know, the higher you go up, the harder it's going to be to get down, particularly
06:55because both sides have really dug in on their respective positions, right?
06:59I mean, India feels that it's completely in the right in terms of its view that Canada
07:06is harboring extremists.
07:08And Canada believes that it is right in its view that it's doing nothing wrong.
07:13And that's, you know, I think that these uncompromising positions tend to be more common
07:18when you really don't have much sense that things are going to be getting better in the
07:23relationship or that they could be getting better.
07:25So in that sense, I think that the best we can hope for for this relationship in the
07:29coming weeks and perhaps even the coming months is not that things will get better, but more
07:34so that they don't get worse.