Ukraine's growth in its own military capability a sign it can prevail - Bruegel thinktank
Amid war in Ukraine, the rapidly unfolding conflict in the Middle East and uncertainty about future relations with US, the EU has rarely faced such challenging times. Jacob Kirkegaard, Senior Fellow at the Bruegel thinktank shares his views on what the coming years may hold.
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00:00A new commission, a new European Parliament and a new US administration.
00:13What does this all mean for the future of Europe?
00:15I chat to Jakob Kirtgaarden on The Europe Conversation.
00:19So Jakob, we're coming into a new commission, a new European Parliament and I want to start
00:26off with the Middle East because obviously this week we had the anniversary of the 7th
00:30of October Hamas attack.
00:32With that we've seen horrendous conditions in Gaza as a result of the Israeli response
00:37and also a widened regional spread of war.
00:41What implications does this have for Europe?
00:44Well I think the short answer is that in economic terms, unfortunately the implications for
00:49Europe really resides on the risk of escalation, aka that Israel may or may not choose to
00:56strike the Iranian oil sector.
00:59Iran may then retaliate and oil may rise significantly in price.
01:04That's really the economic risk.
01:06Politically, for the EU, I think we have seen over the last number of many months in fact
01:12that obviously this is a conflict that retains this ability to mobilize significant segments
01:19of European populations.
01:20It varies from country to country.
01:23What you lack basically for the EU is of course unity.
01:27One of the charges levelled against the EU in relation to this is double standards.
01:32That there isn't the same support or empathy for the Palestinians as there is for Ukrainians.
01:39And that has impacted the EU's reputation within the global south, something that Brussels
01:44has been trying to garner support for when it comes to the war in Ukraine.
01:49How do you see this playing out?
01:51I think it is true.
01:53I think it is important for Europeans to recognize that while we clearly view the conflict in
01:58Ukraine as the first existential armed conflict really threatening the military security of
02:05Europe arguably since World War II in some ways, or certainly since the end of the Cold
02:11War, and therefore we view that rightfully in my opinion as an existential crisis.
02:17But in the eyes of the global south, who do not fear imminent invasion by Russia, well
02:24it's just quote unquote another regional conflict.
02:27So that we in Europe, but also in the broader G7, are sort of trying to actively solicit
02:34their support for Ukraine for what in their eyes is a regional conflict while we, again
02:39in their eyes, are ignoring not just the Israel-Palestine conflict, but many other regional conflicts,
02:46armed conflicts across the global south.
02:50Yes, in their eyes that's clearly hypocrisy.
02:53And I think, again, if you look from where they come, they have a point.
02:58So we see it as an existential crisis, yet at the same time we hear from the Ukrainians,
03:03from President Zelensky, we don't have enough weapons.
03:07Our soldiers are on the front line and they're suffering for the want of weapons.
03:11But I think there's no doubt that Ukraine continues to fight a very determined and very
03:18much larger neighbor in Russia.
03:21So they are inherently the underdog, if you can put it that way.
03:25They have received very significant amounts of financial and military support from the
03:29West.
03:30But the war is entering now, it's well into its third year, and there are concerns.
03:36Not just with the upcoming US presidential election, but also domestic politics in many
03:40European countries.
03:41Is this sustainable?
03:42I think the good news, in my opinion, is that I believe in Europe, with the clear exception
03:47of Hungary, possibly Slovakia, but let's put it this way, all the countries in Europe with
03:53real money and military capabilities are strongly behind Ukraine.
03:59I suspect that situation will persist, precisely because we do have to view this conflict as
04:06an existential one, because I think it is naive to assume that if Russia were to prevail
04:13in Ukraine, that they would, quote-unquote, just stop at those four provinces that they
04:18have already annexed.
04:19But at the same time, we've heard from President Zelensky, he has his vision for ending the
04:25war, his victory plan, which he presented at the United Nations General Assembly, at
04:29Ramstein in Germany to NATO allies.
04:32And the response has been tepid.
04:35There's no complete embrace of this response from the United States, which hasn't said
04:40it can give support for, for example, the use of long-range weapons into Russian territory.
04:46We've heard Chancellor Schultz saying Germany would never agree to that.
04:49And what we do know of the plan is that it's very offensive.
04:53So it doesn't appear that the allies are, you know, four square behind Zelensky on this.
04:59I think you need to have Russia put under military pressure.
05:05And I think that is really what this plan strives to do.
05:09That will require, clearly in the eyes of, you know, President Zelensky and the Ukrainian
05:15government, the ability to strike strategic targets with Western weapons deep in Russian
05:21territory.
05:22Clearly, as you mentioned, the U.S. government, the German government do not see it that way.
05:27But there are other European governments, including those who have delivered F-16s and
05:32other missiles, long-range missile to them, that actually are in favor of it.
05:36So we will see where we end up.
05:39And I think it should also be mentioned, and I think this is again one of these areas which
05:43at least gives me a relatively high degree of optimism, actually, about Ukraine's ability
05:50to ultimately prevail, which is the growth of Ukraine's domestic military industrial
05:55complex and capabilities, where we have seen in recent weeks and months the rising use
06:02of accurate long-range drone strikes by Ukraine on, you know, Russian ammunition depots, energy
06:11storage facilities, et cetera.
06:13At the 75th anniversary of NATO in Washington, D.C., Ukraine was told there was an indestructible
06:18bridge towards membership, not quite membership, but no timeline.
06:23Do you think Ukraine will become a member of NATO, or do you foresee that it may have
06:29to give up NATO membership, at least in the short to medium term, in order to negotiate
06:35Russia leaving its territory?
06:37I think they will become a member of NATO.
06:41But I think it is arguably more important for Ukraine that they become a member of the
06:45EU, because I think that ultimately Ukraine will prevail in this war, meaning that they
06:53are able to deter Russian aggression, even without being a member of NATO, provided that
07:01they have access to ongoing Western financial and military support, which in principle they
07:07could have without being a member of NATO.
07:11What matters for Ukraine, however, in the long run, is money financing to rebuild the
07:17economy and full integration with the EU, so that they can completely turn their back,
07:23which is clearly what they want, to any links in the energy sector and otherwise with Russia.
07:29That requires, in my opinion, full EU membership in the relatively near to medium term, meaning...
07:37Like 2030?
07:38Yeah, early 2030s.
07:40And this ironically also, in my opinion, would prove a much bigger long-term threat
07:47to Vladimir Putin and indeed the entire Russian regime, because what this would provide Ukraine
07:53was an opportunity to become, I would argue, a fast-growing market economy-based democracy
08:01fully anchored in the EU, clearly showing the Russian population that, you know what,
08:06there is an alternative to the autocracy perpetrated on them by Vladimir Putin and
08:11his likely successors.
08:12Do you not think countries like Hungary will go out of their way to block Ukraine's accession
08:19every step of the way, which we've seen so far?
08:22Viktor Orban will try to curry favour with his true political masters, which are, in
08:28my opinion, in Moscow and increasingly also in Beijing.
08:33He may try that, but ultimately we are now seeing the growth of, you know, domestic opposition
08:39parties in Hungary.
08:42If we manage, by the rest of the EU, to continue the financial squeeze on Hungary through the
08:49budget, I think, you know, at the end of the day, and again we're talking maybe 10 years,
08:56for the final decision for Ukrainian membership to be taken, it is not clear that the Hungarian
09:02regime, if I may use that word, is act, just have that level of longevity, given the domestic
09:08developments and ongoing, I hope, economic pressure that he will face within the EU.
09:13And you say political paymasters, do you mean because of the investment Beijing and Moscow
09:19have in Hungary?
09:20No, I don't, I mean, I think it is clear that Hungary, having clearly written off, I would
09:26argue, many of the currently frozen and future transfers from the EU.
09:34What have they done instead?
09:35Clearly with regard, they continue to elicit Russian energy imports, including building
09:43a new nuclear power plant.
09:45With the case of China, he has signed, among other things, clearly, in my opinion, to continue
09:52to offer a, if you like, uniquely politically preferred destination for Chinese investment
09:59in the EU, a security treaty with China that allows Chinese police officers to patrol with
10:08Hungarian police officers on the streets of Hungary.
10:12That is something that no other EU member can offer, and may, in fact, choose to, maybe
10:18the deciding political factor when the Chinese, quote-unquote, private companies or state-owned
10:24companies choose where to locate their investments.
10:27Just final question before I let you go, because we have about three weeks to go to the US
10:31election.
10:32What are your predictions?
10:33And, you know, regardless of who wins, do you think that Europe is on its way to de-risk
10:40from its relationship with the United States, or is that just impossible, at least for the
10:44short term?
10:45Yeah, I think it is, in the short term, in a military sense, it is clearly impossible.
10:48I mean, NATO without a fully committed United States is just not NATO.
10:53At the same time, I think the fact, irrespective of who wins, the fact that a candidate like
10:58Donald Trump might be re-elected, I mean, he could actually win and be re-elected, in
11:04my opinion, clearly casts doubt about the long-term viability of, or the value, if you
11:10like, of NATO's Article 5.
11:13So irrespective of who wins, Europe doesn't have any choice other than to do what some
11:18of the things that was in the Draghi report as well, to achieve a much higher degree of
11:23self-sufficiency in military, national security issues.
11:28The EU can only achieve that if we manage to fully integrate Ukraine into the European
11:35economies, because we're already seeing the growth of domestic Ukrainian weapons production.
11:40If they have an existing military industrial complex, they will become, I think, the arsenal
11:47of the EU.
11:48Okay, Jakob Kirkgaard, Senior Fellow at Bruegel, thank you very much for joining us on The
11:53Europe Conversation.
11:54My pleasure.