In this insightful interview, Jordan Cope, a Middle East and counter-terrorism expert, joins Nagen Singh from OneIndia to analyze the potential shifts in the Israel-Iran conflict following the upcoming U.S. elections. Cope shares his expert insights on how political changes in the United States may impact strategies and alliances in the Middle East. With tensions rising and the stakes higher than ever, he discusses the implications for regional stability and U.S. foreign policy. Tune in to gain a deeper understanding of the intricate dynamics at play in one of the world's most volatile regions.
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#JordanCope #MiddleEast #IranIsraelConflict #USElections #CounterTerrorism #OneIndia #ForeignPolicy #MiddleEastExpert #PoliticalAnalysis
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00:00Hello and welcome. I'm Nageen Singh. This is One India. Today, it's October 7,
00:04one of the historic days when Hamas attacked Israel and more than 1200 people were killed.
00:12Now it is one year and we have Mr. Jordan Cope. He's joining us from US and he's a counterterrorism
00:20expert. He's an expert on Middle East and we want to understand with him that where is this war
00:25heading and will there be an end to this war or not? Well, thank you so much for joining us,
00:32Jordan. First question that I want to ask you that where is this war heading with Biden asking
00:40for restraints, France asking for restraints, West is asking for restraints to Israel,
00:47but Israel, I think they don't want to stop right now. So there always is an end to every war. The
00:53question is when that will commence. And Israel right now has existential threats that it must
01:00deal with coming from Iran, which has unleashed all of its proxies effectively from October 7th
01:06onwards. Israel currently is fighting a front, excuse me, a war of seven fronts, not just against
01:13Hamas and Hezbollah, but against the Houthis, against Iraqi militias and against other countries
01:19that have, excuse me, other factions that have participated in this front. And so what Israel
01:25must do is use the unfortunate momentum that was created from the October 7th attacks, seize it and
01:33make sure to clear all of these fronts off of its borders. Israel is unlike any other country today
01:40in which there are existential threats literally on its border. Hezbollah with 150,000 rockets,
01:46Hamas which unleashed one of the worst terrorist attacks in modern memory,
01:51not only killing 1,200 people, but resulting in the hostage taking of 250 others.
01:59It was an attack that was one of the worst in modern memory. And it should be noted, it was
02:05one of the worst attacks on humanity at large, with over 40 countries having had victims who
02:12were either killed or taken hostage. It's shameful that the West isn't supporting Israel
02:17more. It's shameful to hear that some Western countries are delaying arms shipments or even
02:22withholding them. But this is a war that is necessary, not just for Israel, not just for
02:28Israel's security, but for the integrity of Western values. But do you think it is a war between the
02:34religions? Of course, Saudis are not entering here. But do you think it is a war between the
02:40Jews and between Muslim nations, Muslim countries? I absolutely don't think it's that. Because Israel
02:47at the end of the day, 20% of its population is Arab, the vast majority of that Arab population
02:53being Muslim itself. There are certain affirmative action benefits for certain Muslim groups in
03:00Israel, such as Bedouins to serve within the Israeli Defence Forces. It's very questionable
03:06what even constitutes Muslim identity, because throughout the Middle East and North Africa,
03:12many would not consider Iran's version of Islam, Shia Islam, to be a pure form of Islam. And it's
03:19similar in terms of how India's identity manifests. India itself has many Muslims within its population,
03:25even though it's predominantly a Hindu country. And so this certainly isn't a war between Judaism
03:31versus Islam. Israel itself has peace agreements with many Muslim countries before and after the
03:39Abraham Accords. So it's important to realise what this is. It's an onslaught by Islamist factions
03:46and state sponsors of terrorism who endorse Islamist ideologies, such as Iran. And even though
03:53Qatar isn't classified as a state sponsor of terrorism, it should be. And so Islamist factions
03:59and state sponsors of terrorism who endorse Islamist ideologies who seek to ultimately
04:05promote Israel's demise and destruction. Right. How do you see the war, you know, turning around?
04:11Because now we have multiple factions who are attached to it. Even Russian PM was in Iran
04:19just the day before the attack on Israel. And China has made statements that the war should be
04:25stopped immediately. But of course, there is no stopping from Israel, no stopping from the
04:31resistance forces. And of course, Iran. So do you think there could be a world war if other countries
04:37like Russia get involved? And of course, US has sent their forces, some troops in Middle East. So
04:45is there any chance that it can, you know, trigger a World War Three? So as I believe the Fox
04:52correspondent Trey Yinks noted that wars never unfold as we expect them to. So it's obviously
04:58very difficult to predict how it will. I think for now, the war is relatively contained between Gaza,
05:05Lebanon, and what could be Iran in the future. I don't think Russia and China want to get too
05:11involved. China definitely has a lot of prospects in terms of the region, which might counteract
05:18that prediction in terms of its one belt one road and its maritime Silk Road and whatnot. So what's
05:26important to consider, at least right now, is that Russia, at least in Ukraine, definitely has its
05:31hands tied. China might have some prospects to intervene, but I doubt that it would. And I doubt
05:38that this US administration, as we currently speak, especially before elections, would want to
05:45war in the region with its troops on the ground. Unfortunately, Israel, for many decades now,
05:51has had to deal with all of these problems, these existential threats on its own. And the West
05:58needs to continue supplying Israel. They need to continue supporting Israel, not just because
06:04Israel is a bastion of hope as a democracy and the only democracy in the region, but a bastion
06:10for human rights and values that the West can get behind. And India, of course, as well.
06:15But the leaders like Kamala Harris, she said that what Netanyahu did is shameful, which is
06:22a very strong statement. There is another person, Trump, who is saying that you should hit the
06:29Iran nuclear sites as soon as possible, you should hit them first. So after November 5,
06:35there could be Kamala Harris or there could be Trump. What can happen after November 5?
06:41If Trump wins, if Kamala Harris wins? It's certainly a big question to be asked. The
06:47current administration, if that's any prediction for the future, has allegedly withheld or delayed
06:54arms shipments to Israel. So it's questionable how that will manifest in the future if the Harris
07:02administration bears any semblance to the current Biden administration, to which she is a part of.
07:10The Trump administration appears to have been a little more on the hawkish side. So I don't
07:17want to speak in advance and perhaps preempt or undermine any of their future agenda. But we have
07:24to use, I guess, the statements that are currently at display for our prediction. And it seems that
07:30the Harris administration might be a little more dovish, might even withhold or delay arms
07:35shipments. The Trump administration, on the other hand, might be more hawkish and supportive of war
07:41efforts. That being said, what his administration, not his administration, but what he has also said
07:48in the meantime, effectively, is that Israel needs to get this war over with sooner than later. And so
07:54how to interpret that, especially before elections, is certainly a question to be
07:59had. But it definitely seems he's more hawkish. But November 5 is going to be an important date
08:04for this war that is going on in the Middle East. Certainly. And I actually think that once November
08:105th passes, there is a possibility that these presidential candidates might actually be even
08:18more expressive for Israel once the swing states are decided and they no longer have to, I guess,
08:25kowtow to potential voters in those states. And they could be more genuine about how they really
08:31feel. OK, my last question, Jordan, how do you see Netanyahu's role? Do you think he has succeeded
08:38in this war or it has been a failure for him? We have seen massive protests against him in Israel.
08:45And of course, the hostages, they are still there, 100 hostages, at least, they are still
08:51under Hamas siege. So how do you see his role? How one defines victory in war is obviously a very
08:57challenging question. Initially, Israel's objectives were to free the hostages and to
09:02eliminate Hamas. Israel has since declared effectively that it has reduced Hamas from a
09:08military organization to a terrorist organization. It has effectively helped
09:14compel the rescue and or the liberation through ceasefire. I need to rephrase that.
09:24Israel has effectively reduced Hamas's capabilities from a military organization to a terrorist
09:30organization by one means or another. It has effectively helped rescue 148 hostages,
09:39unfortunately, 30 of them, the bodies whom Israel has recovered are deceased. But that being said,
09:47it has significantly reduced and instilled fear within terrorist organizations throughout the
09:52Middle East and has reminded terrorist organizations throughout the Middle East
09:57that Israel is no longer going to be on the defensive, that at times Israel will have to be
10:03on the offensive in terms of its self-defense in order to protect its civilians. And it will
10:10catch terrorists off guard as it did Hezbollah with the Pager attacks, one of the most precisely
10:16and well executed cyber attacks in modern day warfare. It's taken out significant Hamas leaders
10:23undermining their morale, including Mohammed Daif, including Ismail Haniya, including Hezbollah's
10:31Hassan Nasrallah, and it looks like Hashem Safi Yadin. These are significant losses to these
10:37terrorist organizations, once perceived as untouchables. And Israel has reminded these
10:43terrorists throughout the Middle East that there is unfortunately a new dawn that has arrived,
10:48and that Israel will no longer be in the shadows when it comes to these existential
10:54threats that seek to destroy it. And that also comes to Iran, which has sent now hundreds of
11:00missiles directly into Israel, completely transforming this proxy war into a direct
11:06confrontation. And as Israel showed when it struck the aerial defense systems outside of its nuclear
11:14facilities in Iran, this is a new precedent that has now arrived, and Israel will no longer wait
11:22for the threat to build up. Thank you. Thank you so much for your time, Jordan.