In this compelling interview, Nimrod Goren, a Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute, discusses the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas as it marks one year since the devastating attacks. He shares insights on the current situation in Gaza, the impact on families of Israeli hostages, and the broader implications for the Middle East. Goren also addresses the challenges facing Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and examines whether regional powers like Russia may become involved in the escalating tensions. Join us for an in-depth analysis of a conflict that continues to shape the future of the region.
#IsraelHamasWar #MiddleEastConflict #NimrodGoren #Gaza #Netanyahu #IranIsraelTensions #WarAnniversary #HostageCrisis #MiddleEastInstitute #GlobalPolitics #CurrentAffairs
#IsraelHamasWar #MiddleEastConflict #NimrodGoren #Gaza #Netanyahu #IranIsraelTensions #WarAnniversary #HostageCrisis #MiddleEastInstitute #GlobalPolitics #CurrentAffairs
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00:00I think on Russia, there are question marks.
00:02You mentioned the visit or the meeting with the Iranian official,
00:04and there are different narratives for that.
00:06One is protracting Russian backing to Iran,
00:09but the other one is maybe constraining.
00:11Part of the lack of success is the unwillingness of our current coalition,
00:16which is a far-right coalition,
00:17even if it now opposes the two-state solution,
00:20to find a model of who will replace Hamas.
00:22If you want Hamas gone from Gaza, who comes in?
00:26You know, there are two things happening.
00:28On one hand, you have a war going on with so many fronts,
00:32escalating tensions,
00:34and on the other, you have an Israeli society
00:36that's currently remembering and mourning
00:38and processing the one-year mark to the deadliest day in Israeli history.
00:43Hello and welcome.
00:44I'm Nageen Singh, and this is One India.
00:46And today, of course, it's October 7,
00:49and we are discussing what's happening in the Middle East.
00:52Now, we have our guest.
00:54He's a senior fellow.
00:55He's an expert on the international matters,
00:59especially in the area of Israel, Iran, Jordan,
01:03all these places which are almost on fire every day.
01:08We know that what is happening in Haifa,
01:10what is happening in Beirut, there are attacks.
01:14And now, Mr. Goran, welcome to the show.
01:18And the first question straight away,
01:21what is the situation in Middle East?
01:23You are in Jordan right now.
01:25What is the situation?
01:27What are the news which are coming in?
01:29And this is October 7.
01:30What can we expect that is going to happen?
01:33It is a pleasure being here.
01:34Thank you and greetings from Jerusalem.
01:37You know, there are two things happening.
01:39You know, on one hand, you have a war going on
01:42with so many fronts, escalating tensions,
01:45and on the other, you have an Israeli society
01:47that's currently remembering and mourning
01:50and processing the one-year mark to the deadliest day in Israeli history.
01:54So it's kind of remembering and reflecting
01:57on an event that never ended.
02:00You know, October 7 of last year is still very much present
02:03in the lives and memories of Israelis.
02:06As we speak now, so many people are still processing their losses,
02:12hostages that are still held by Hamas in Gaza,
02:14people who are displaced from their home,
02:16people who are fighting across the borders.
02:18So it's still very much in existence.
02:21And while that is happening,
02:23and we're trying to make sense of all that happened
02:25and what are the domestic consequences
02:27on our society, on our political system, on our identity,
02:31there are soldiers that are fighting,
02:33you know, on the northern border against Hezbollah,
02:36in Lebanon, against Hamas in Gaza,
02:38confronting threats from Iran, from Iraq, from Yemen.
02:42A new reality, I think, for reasons we didn't know a year ago.
02:46But Mr. Goran, do you think it is not just war between countries?
02:50This is more a war between the Jews and between the Muslims.
02:56I think not, because you see so many Arab countries
03:00that have agreements with Israel,
03:02that signed peace treaties, whether it's Egypt and Jordan,
03:05or countries that have normalization agreements with Israel,
03:08like the UAE and Bahrain and Morocco.
03:11And these relationships are still intact.
03:13So basically, the battle that is happening
03:16is between us and those on the extremist side of the other side.
03:20You know, Hamas, Hezbollah, these are terror organizations.
03:23These are not mainstream Muslims.
03:25And I think much of the Arab countries in the Muslim world
03:28is supporting a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinians,
03:32and is willing to have good relations with Israel.
03:34If that happens, there is a lot of criticism, of course,
03:37against Israeli actions in Gaza, within the Arab and Muslim world.
03:41There are those that do not want peace,
03:43also, you know, in the extreme part of the Israeli society, we have those.
03:47So it's kind of a battle between those who want a future of peace,
03:51of prosperity, of security, of stability,
03:53and those who want to see eternal fighting, basically, between the people.
03:57But this seems to be an unending war,
03:59one year, and it has only spread across countries.
04:03Now, Lebanese are saying that it is almost like a Gaza-like situation
04:08in Beirut, or other parts of Lebanon,
04:11especially, of course, the southern Lebanon.
04:14So how do you see Israel retaliating to the attacks?
04:17And what should we expect today after October 1st attack, Operation True Promise 2?
04:23What should we expect from Israel?
04:25Are they going to hit the nukes, the nuclear stores,
04:29or they are going to restrain as, you know, UK and France,
04:32the US, UK and France, they are saying that, okay,
04:35you should control these attacks, don't attack on the nuclear sites of Iran.
04:39And of course, we have seen what happened yesterday,
04:43and day before yesterday, when Netanyahu,
04:46it was almost like Netanyahu versus the French Macron.
04:51So where do you see all this happening?
04:53And what will be Israel's reaction?
04:55So you rightly mentioned the conflict between Israel and Iran,
04:59which used to be through proxies,
05:01you know, Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis are all proxies of Iran.
05:04And traditionally, the warfare between Israel and Iran was not direct,
05:08was not public.
05:10And what happened and what changed in April of this year,
05:12when Iran attacked Israel for the first time with missiles,
05:14it became very direct.
05:16And just a few days ago, we, you know,
05:17we had almost 200 Iranian missiles going towards Israel.
05:21And now there is a discussion about Israeli retaliation on that.
05:25Of course, we do not know when it will happen and in which scope.
05:28The Prime Minister has already vouched to do that,
05:31and it makes sense in terms of Israel's strategy.
05:33But what kind of action and for what strategic goal?
05:36What is the objective of it all?
05:38And I think on that, there is coordination between Israel
05:40and the US administration.
05:42And you mentioned all those international actors
05:44that want to see more constraint.
05:46I think Israel listens mostly to Washington
05:48from the other actors in the international community.
05:51And the goal of President Biden from October 7th of last year
05:55was first to stand by Israel and ensure its security,
05:59but also prevent the escalation to turn into a full-fledged regional war.
06:04I think that American goal is still very much in place.
06:07And Israel will probably take into account the American concern
06:10when it decides what to do in Iran.
06:13The Israeli Ministry of Defense is going to Washington this week.
06:16So I guess that will shape what is happening.
06:19But that's quite separate from what happens between Israel and Hezbollah
06:22because there, Israel sees an opportunity
06:25to basically dismantle or dramatically weaken
06:27the most significant enemy it has on its immediate border.
06:30The successes of the last two, three weeks
06:32is something that Israel wants to continue vis-a-vis Hezbollah
06:35and step it up to ensure a different reality across the border.
06:39There's another big factor, Mr. Gorin, that is Russia.
06:43We had the news that Israel attacked the Russian air bases in Syria
06:49and it was big news.
06:51But now, will Russia enter this war?
06:55What do you think will be Russian perspective?
06:57They're already fighting with Ukraine
06:59and they have made several comments.
07:02Russian PM was in Iran just the day before the strike of October 1st.
07:08So where do you see Russia in this war?
07:11And will they ever, you know, enter this directly
07:14or will they continue to just support Iran from the back end?
07:17I think what we should aspire is for less and less countries
07:19to be militarily involved and more countries engage in diplomacy
07:23that would help reach agreements and find the way out.
07:26And I think on Russia, there are question marks.
07:29You mentioned the visit or the meeting with the Iranian official
07:31and there are different narratives for that.
07:33One is portraying the Russian backing to Iran,
07:36but the other one is maybe constraining
07:38because I'm not sure that the Russians want this full escalation as well.
07:41So over the last years, Israel and Russia,
07:45although they have differences between them,
07:47managed to create this modus vivendi
07:49in terms of Israeli attacks against Iranian targets in Syria.
07:54Because Israel, it's not started last year,
07:57that Israel was acting to prevent Iran from entering
08:00or getting a stronghold within Syria, where Russia is also dominant.
08:03So I think all these operations that Israel took place in the region
08:08were somewhere within, again, the headlines, the arrangements,
08:12the consideration that were given from Russia.
08:15And Russia is an important actor.
08:17I don't see it having an appetite to enter the war.
08:21Israel definitely needs to take into account, you know, where it attacks.
08:25I don't think it attacked specifically Russian places,
08:28but maybe in the vicinity or nearby.
08:31And I hope that we won't have more countries joining in.
08:35That's not where we want to do.
08:36Right. And how about Israel?
08:39Israel, when, you know, the attack happened,
08:42when Hamas attacked on October 7th,
08:45after that, the first comment or the most famous comment of Benjamin Netanyahu
08:50was that they will finish Hamas.
08:53How much have they succeeded?
08:55Because it's a big question.
08:57This is what the war is continuing, that Israel wants to finish Hamas.
09:02But I think they haven't finished it yet.
09:05It still exists.
09:07More than 40,000 people have been killed in Gaza and it continues.
09:11So where does it end?
09:12When Hamas will be beaten?
09:14First, it's true, the human suffering of civilians
09:17on both sides of the conflict is mounting.
09:19And I think it's a consideration for those dealing with military.
09:23Diplomacy to take into account people on the ground and what they are going through
09:26and how to really find a way out of that.
09:29If you speak about the Israeli goals,
09:31so yes, there was this very fierce messaging about Hamas,
09:33but then when it was translated into objectives approved by the Israeli coalition,
09:38basically there were three.
09:40So it was about making sure Hamas is not governing anymore in Gaza,
09:43making sure that Hamas cannot pose another threat
09:46like it did on October 7th to Israel.
09:48But Netanyahu didn't succeed in beating Hamas.
09:51Hamas exists.
09:52Yes, I think that was kind of a very fine tuning of the messaging
09:56that it was clear quite from early on
09:58that you cannot eliminate an organization of an idea or an ideology, okay?
10:02You want to make sure that Hamas is not a political power governing Gaza
10:05or that Hamas is not having the military or terror capabilities
10:09to go against Israel and to make sure that all these hostages,
10:13you know, 101 hostages are still held by Hamas are released.
10:17It was 250 a year ago.
10:19And I think Israel and all three of them have only partial success,
10:23you know, still 100 hostages still held,
10:26Hamas, you know, still present, still fighting,
10:30although it's much weaker than it was a year ago dramatically.
10:35But part of the lack of success is the unwillingness of our current coalition,
10:39which is a far-right coalition,
10:41led by Netanyahu, who opposes the two-state solution,
10:44to find a model of who will replace Hamas.
10:46If you want Hamas gone from Gaza, who comes in?
10:50It shouldn't be Israel.
10:52It should be the Palestinian leadership,
10:54the moderate leadership from Ramallah, from the Palestinian Authority,
10:57in some renewed fashion, taking control over the Gaza Strip,
11:00like was the situation before Hamas took over Gaza
11:03from the Palestinian Authority itself.
11:05Then you need international and regional actors to pitch in
11:08and to help rebuild and reconstruct and pave the way towards peacemaking.
11:12But if Netanyahu and the government does not want all of that,
11:16then basically, you know, we are stuck with Hamas,
11:18which is the position that we had before the war,
11:20when the Israeli Prime Minister was basically
11:23enabling Hamas to continue to be in power.
11:26And the question here is, you know,
11:27how much has really changed, you know, a year into the war,
11:30in terms of the policies and the priorities of the current Israeli Prime Minister.
11:33And the biggest question, when do you think the war will end?
11:36Or will it ever end?
11:37Or it is going to continue for another couple of years
11:40until all the resources are, you know, destroyed in all countries?
11:44Yeah, that's a good question.
11:46I think looking at it from an Israeli perspective,
11:48you know, I think that part of it depends on political change in Israel.
11:54Because it's not only about the war ending,
11:56but which reality you want to see after the war ends.
11:59And if you want to see a pathway to peace,
12:02to more normalization of relations with the Arab countries,
12:04to more regional integration and cooperation,
12:07then we need an Israeli leadership that is not led by extremists,
12:11but by people who are more moderate,
12:12more open to engaging with the other side,
12:15looking for a peaceful solution,
12:16to working with the international community.
12:18And I think the current coalition is not there in Israel.
12:21And after we have the next election,
12:23I hope we will have a more reasonable coalition that could advance that.
12:27But of course, some of the problems are on security,
12:29and we need to weaken those spoilers in the region,
12:32together with allies, because other Arab countries
12:34and international actors have the same, basically, goal of Israel.
12:37It may be not share the military way of conduct that Israel is doing.
12:41But you need a regional international community to pitch in
12:44and help when they can to create these new regional realities,
12:47while we are working domestically to change the nature of our governance.
12:52But Mr. Gorin, do you think Netanyahu has failed as a PM of Israel,
12:57or he has failed the people of Israel?
12:59We have already lost 150 hostages.
13:03There have been multiple protests,
13:05and that too, you know, quite massive protests that Israel has seen.
13:10So do you think he has failed as a PM?
13:12I think so, and I think beyond that, you know,
13:14I think you see it in consecutive public opinion polls in Israel,
13:18that most of the society holds Netanyahu accountable
13:20for the failure of October 7th, the policies that he had before,
13:23the conduct that he did later on since the war began,
13:28and the one early election.
13:30So it's kind of a popular mindset in Israel.
13:32So while Israel is united on the war issues,
13:35and a lot of solidarity and mutual support,
13:38there is also a demand for political change.
13:41And that's definitely there.
13:43So I think there's a consideration of leadership failures,
13:47mostly because the very basic concept of,
13:50if a prime minister, whoever that was,
13:52was in a position of power,
13:53when the worst day in Israeli history happened,
13:56you know, the most natural thing to do
13:59is to give a chance for someone else to repair,
14:01or at least take responsibility for what your role was.
14:04And I think Netanyahu, until now, did not take responsibility,
14:07did not enable an inquiry committee
14:10to really investigate into why everything happened,
14:13what lessons should be drawn.
14:15And I think that's a sign
14:16that most Israelis want to see differently.
14:19And my last question, Mr. Goen.
14:21We heard multiple news reports,
14:24of course, some were Iranian news services,
14:27that Iron Dome failed multiple times,
14:30you know, and it crumbled under several attacks
14:33by Hezbollah and by Iran, of course.
14:37But can you tell us, what is the situation?
14:40How safe are Israelis?
14:42This is my last question.
14:43How safe are Israelis right now?
14:46Has Iron Dome crumbled,
14:49or is it still working the way it was?
14:51Or what is happening about the shield
14:54that is protecting millions of Israelis?
14:58Not being a security expert myself,
15:00I can give this testimony as an Israeli on the ground.
15:04And there's the sense of security,
15:06the Iron Dome and the Arrow rockets,
15:08Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 are providing Israelis,
15:11so we are feeling less safe because we are under fire.
15:14There are sirens going on from Haifa to Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
15:17People are running to shelters every now and then.
15:19But when this is happening,
15:22the scope of people who have been injured or killed
15:26is relatively very low, okay?
15:29We saw 200 missiles almost go towards Israel,
15:33and not a single Israeli died of that.
15:35That's not happening by chance.
15:37So it's true that the more rockets that are being fired,
15:40the same time it's more difficult to confront it.
15:43The system enables those rockets
15:46that are not going towards population centers,
15:48perhaps to make impact.
15:49But overall, I think the sense that we are protected
15:52and that such a long war,
15:54the major impact that was done was not by missiles, okay?
15:58That's not where most Israelis were killed or injured
16:02over the last year, almost at all.
16:04We hope it will continue,
16:06but I don't think that Iran don't crumble.
16:08I think on the contrary,
16:09it provides Israelis a strategic asset
16:11that enables at least some security for people
16:14in a very unsafe time which we are living in.
16:16Well, Mr. Goran, we'll just hope that this war ends.
16:21That will be good, of course,
16:22for Israel, Palestine, Iran, Lebanon,
16:25and all the neighboring countries.
16:27We hope there is end to the war in Russia as well.
16:32But it's not us who will be deciding.
16:33We can just give the insights that what is happening
16:36and let things move in a better way.
16:39This was Nimrod Goran giving us all the details
16:43about what is happening in this ongoing war.
16:47And we'll get back to you with some more news
16:50about Israel, Hamas, Iran, Lebanon war.
16:55This is Nageen Singh for One India.