UFC 307 goes down from the Salt Lake City. Peter Klein breaks down the full main card and gives his picks for each bout.
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00:00UFC 307 goes down in Salt Lake City, Utah.
00:13A hotbed for the Ultimate Fighting Championship, suddenly.
00:16Thanks, I'm sure, in no part to the Salt Lake City City Council and the government
00:22in Utah paying TKO lots of money to go there.
00:24Either way, in the main event, it is Alex Pereira defending the UFC's Light Heavyweight
00:31Championship against number seven contender Khalil Roundtree.
00:35Also, we have the Women's Bantamweight title on the line as Rocky, Raquel Pennington, goes
00:40up against Juliana Peña.
00:42Conrad, we'll get to the wrestling question there in the wrestling talk, but a slight
00:49teaser, because Conrad asking not a preview, but a question, thoughts on NXT Black and
00:54Silver Rebrand.
00:56Initial thought, like.
00:58Okay, let's go into the fight breakdown.
01:00And I've, normally, I like to do real, like, okay, this is what these guys have done in
01:05the last little bit, this is whatever.
01:07If you've seen my previews before, you know how I kind of like to do it.
01:09But as I explained before, this morning has been chaotic.
01:13I got sick late last night and didn't have the most awesome of sleeps.
01:18Woke up feeling a little bit better today, and the wonderful combination of Advil, Tums,
01:23and Monster Energy is powering me through.
01:26So you can probably tell I'm a little bit more bleh than normal for this one.
01:30But also, my laptop wasn't working until literally two minutes before the show started.
01:34So I didn't get to do as in-depth of previews on these.
01:38So a little bit more of this is just going to be a bit off the cuff, so to speak.
01:45So I'm just going to do a main card preview for this one, and the app I was using doesn't
01:53give me, you know, names.
01:55So that's annoying.
01:57But if we go here to our trusty Wikipedia, if there was anything that happened in the
02:03weigh-ins, and I miss it, I apologize for that.
02:06But in the Middleweight division, it is Roman Dolidze against Kevin Holland.
02:10Again, this fight happening at Middleweight, Dolidze is a plus-130 underdog against Kevin
02:15Holland.
02:16Holland is kind of one of those post-hype sleepers that people talk about in fantasy
02:22football a whole lot.
02:23Oh wow, Wikipedia's looking for donations, look at that.
02:26Where there was a lot of hype around this guy, and it just hasn't quite got there recently
02:31for him.
02:32He was kind of brought in, I don't want to say as a sacrificial lamb, but he was brought
02:36in to kind of make MVP look good.
02:39Now he bounces back with a win over Mikel Oleksandrovich back at UFC 302 with a submission
02:44win there.
02:45Dolidze is still 3-4 in his last 7, with the wins being against Oleksandrovich, Chiesa,
02:53and Santiago Ponzinibbio.
02:55And the losses against Paige De La Maddalena, Steven Lombard-Thompson, and Khamzat Shmayev.
03:00And so, yes, those are kind of tippy-top fighters in this division.
03:06And you could very well explain, like, okay, well he only loses to the big guys, I don't
03:10think Dolidze is that.
03:11And Dolidze himself, coming off of a couple of losses against Marvin Vittori and Nazredin
03:16Imovov, before picking up a win over Anthony Smith.
03:21And so both of these guys, with Dolidze being 36, and Ken Holland being 31, boy, Kevin Holland's
03:30only 31.
03:31Feels like he's been around longer than that.
03:33But you have, I think, a couple of guys who had a little bit of, like, Dolidze wasn't,
03:38I don't think ever like, okay, watch out for this guy.
03:41He was more just a guy who worked his way into, like, back half of the top 15 rankings,
03:45and so to speak.
03:46But Holland was someone where, hey, this guy could be a championship contender.
03:49And he's had some injury issues and all of those things.
03:51And so maybe he gets it back on track.
03:53It is tempting to throw out Dolidze as an underdog play, but I do think Kevin Holland,
04:00just a in-depth analysis here, I think Kevin Holland's a better fighter than Dolidze is.
04:05And so I do think that on their best days, Holland probably doesn't even make it close
04:11with Dolidze, quite frankly.
04:13And so I do think Holland ends up getting the win.
04:15Next, we go to Ketlyn Vieira against Kayla Harrison.
04:19This one in the women's bantamweight division.
04:21Harrison is a strong favorite at minus 1150.
04:25Vieira is a plus 650 underdog.
04:27Harrison, for a long time, held the moniker of best fighter not in the UFC.
04:32And now she's hoping to hold the moniker of best fighter in the UFC.
04:35She is likely a win away from a title shot.
04:37She is already in press conferences shit-talking Juliana Peña.
04:42The one concern you would have is that she is looking past Vieira.
04:46Now, Ketlyn's a talented fighter.
04:50And against, honestly, most fighters in this division, Ketlyn, I think, would be favored.
04:57And she would be a fighter that I would be looking at.
04:59She has losses against Jana Kunitzkaya and Raquel Pennington recently.
05:03So one of them's a champion.
05:05And one of them is a little underrated in Kunitzkaya.
05:08But she does have wins over Misha Tate, Holly Holm, and fighters like that.
05:12Also, previously in her career, Kat Zingano and Sarah McMahon.
05:16So Vieira is a very talented fighter.
05:17But Harrison is just a different, different, different kind of animal.
05:23And I think someone who will go out and get the job done here.
05:27There is no value at all in taking Harrison just to win at minus 1150.
05:34So the official prediction here is Harrison by decision.
05:37I think she grinds out another win.
05:40Third from the top, it is José Aldo.
05:43The legend returns as he steps back into the octagon against Mario Bautista, who is a 31-year-old
05:50fighter from someplace I've never heard of in Nevada.
05:53For Bautista, he is on quite the winning streak.
05:57He has not lost since UFC 259 back in March of 2021.
06:02He was 8-2 at that time.
06:03And now he's 14-2.
06:04So that's six fights in a row that this guy has rattled off, including a win by unanimous
06:08decision over Ricky Simone back in January of this year at an Ultimate Fight Night show.
06:14For José Aldo, the resume is legendary.
06:18He is one of the greatest fighters in the history of this sport.
06:21Now, that was a while ago that he was doing that.
06:25And you can certainly say that there is a falling off happening with José Aldo.
06:31He lost to Marab back at UFC 278.
06:34Marab's the champion now.
06:35Aside from that, he's won four of his last five against Chido Vera, Pedro Muñoz, Rob
06:40Font, and Jonathan Martinez.
06:42I do think that just because this José Aldo would lose to previous version José Aldo,
06:48we kind of assume that this José Aldo would lose to other fighters as well.
06:53And I just, I don't believe that's the case.
06:55I think Aldo is legitimately still a good fighter.
06:59And at plus 120, I just think he has a little bit more striking than most of the, I mean,
07:05he's a little bit more striking than most human beings on the planet.
07:08But he has a little bit more striking edge than most fighters that Bautista has faced
07:11so far in his career.
07:13And so I just don't think he is ready for that sort of a output and that sort of a game
07:18plan coming at him.
07:19And so it is for that reason that I think José Aldo gets the win in this fight as the
07:23underdog at plus 125.
07:24Co-main event for the Women's Bantamweight Championship.
07:26It is Giuliana Pena looking to unseat Raquel Pennington and get back the belt that she
07:30lost to Amanda Nunes.
07:34These two go back to the Ultimate Fighter.
07:36And this is very difficult for me.
07:38And this is where it's like the head-heart thing.
07:41Because Raquel Pennington, so that season of the Ultimate Fighter, and it's why I still
07:46think there's a bit of value in the tough format, if done well.
07:50That season of the Ultimate Fighter was the introduction of the Women's Bantamweight Division.
07:54And it was also the first season of the Ultimate Fighter that came out when my wife and I started
07:59dating.
08:00And she is, like, big brother and survivor and all of those reality shows.
08:04And so I was like, hey, this feels like a very easy entry point.
08:08There's a reality show based on people who punch each other in the head.
08:11And so we watched tough and Raquel Pennington ended up being one of those fighters who you
08:15just fall in love with, right?
08:18And so that is...
08:21I have always liked Raquel Pennington.
08:24And I think that there is still a really talented fighter in there.
08:28And when you look at Raquel Pennington, really, um... it's quite the career arc that she ended
08:35up having.
08:37Because she goes out and just... like, and...
08:42I cannot overstate this enough.
08:44A life-altering ass-kicking at the hands of Amanda Nunes.
08:49This was, A, at Amanda Nunes' peak.
08:51And B, this set off a, I am not kidding, months-long conversation about the role that corners play
09:00in the protection of their athletes.
09:02Because it was so clear from the word go that Raquel Pennington was just in there to, like,
09:08it was literally what, speaking of dated references, it was literally what JWoww was saying in
09:15that episode of Jersey Shore.
09:17Step up, get your ass beat.
09:18Step up, get your ass beat.
09:19Step up, get your ass beat.
09:20That's what it was!
09:21Pennington would step up, and Nunes would beat that ass.
09:24And just kick the shit out of her for, I think they ended up stopping it in the fifth round,
09:30but it was, like, after the third, it probably should have been stopped.
09:35And then definitely after the fourth.
09:37But you still have the corner being like, oh no, you're tough, you can do this.
09:40And even Raquel Pennington was like, hey, don't think I can.
09:43Probably not gonna happen for me this time.
09:46So can we just fucking cut this out, because I'm getting the hell beat out of me here.
09:50And I do feel like that was a, it was a real conversation for a while.
09:57And that is the type of fight that changes fighters.
10:00We've seen, like, it was a bit of a different situation.
10:03But Robbie Lawler and Rory McDowell.
10:05Rory was never the same after that.
10:07And we have seen a lot of guys who just get beat up.
10:11Cain Velasquez and Junior Dos Santos.
10:13Another one.
10:14Where, like, those fights really took it out of both of those fighters.
10:19I know I'm now going to more competitive fights than what this one was, but, like,
10:24this was so one-sided that it just, it felt like, okay, well, this is the end of Raquel.
10:28And then she misses weight and loses to Jermaine Durandamy, then rattles off a ton of wins
10:33in a row and wins the Bantamweight Championship.
10:36Like, she called, her nickname is Rocky, and it fits.
10:39She is the underdog story of all underdog stories.
10:41It is incredible what she has been able to do, and genuinely one of my favorite fighters.
10:47Growing up against Julianna Pena, who talked a lot of shit, and was just wildly unlikable,
10:53A, on the Ultimate Fighter season, to the point where she got hurt after her season
10:59of tough, and a lot of people were saying that it was her camp was just annoyed with
11:04her and hurt her on purpose, that was a theory that was floated out for a little bit around
11:11that.
11:13Like, all of the nice, bubbly whatever that Raquel Pennington is, Julianna Pena isn't.
11:18But what she is, is a really talented fighter.
11:21And so she was able to work her way into a title fight, no one gave her a hope in hell,
11:25Nunes talked about having a bad weight cut and all of those things, and it didn't matter,
11:29because Julianna Pena, forever and always, has a win over Amanda Nunes.
11:33I do think that she maybe took a little bit too much from that, because she talked a whole
11:38lot of shit, and then Nunes basically just punted her for five rounds, and ended up getting
11:43a win, and a dominant one, to get the championship back.
11:46But Pena has, since then, tried to take the, tried to lean into the heel approach a little
11:50bit more.
11:51And I get trying to embrace that, when everyone kind of doesn't like you anyway, but she's
11:57not good at it.
11:58Like, oh, Amanda Nunes is retiring because she's afraid of me.
12:00It's like, yeah, sure, she's really worried about another 25 minute cardio kickboxing
12:05session, where she plays target practice with your brain, and ends up winning.
12:09Like, no one is buying that.
12:11And so no one's really buying this shtick from her at all.
12:14And she has become a little bit unlikable in all of these things.
12:18And that has been just a bit of a disaster.
12:21So, I think you can kind of tell, emotionally, which fighter I like over the other, right?
12:28Here's the problem.
12:30I think Julianna Pena is a better fighter than Raquel Bennington is.
12:33And so, from a prediction standpoint, I kind of hate it.
12:37But I'm going with Julianna Pena in this bout.
12:40I just feel like Raquel's stand-up is better than Julianna Pena's, no question.
12:45But I do think that Pena's ability to be able to get inside, and get some takedowns,
12:49and really start to wear this fight down, and get things going that way, is going to
12:54be her road to success.
12:57And so, I just—it's not that I don't see Raquel Bennington having a hope in this
13:05one.
13:06Like, I certainly do.
13:07There's a reason why, that, especially for a UFC title fight, the odds are actually pretty
13:09close on this fight, with Bennington as a minus-170 underdog.
13:14She does—sorry, minus-170 favorite.
13:15She does have more tools in the toolbox than Pena does.
13:19I just think the tools that Pena has are better.
13:22So I think Pena pulls off another upset, and wins the bantamweight crown, and that
13:28gets her a shot with Kayla Harrison coming up at a later date.
13:33And then the main event.
13:34It is Alex Pereira taking on Khalil Roundtree.
13:37Pereira is a minus-500 favorite, coming off of some amazing nights for him.
13:42He has turned himself into—when he kind of started this rise against Israel Adesanya,
13:47that was another one where I like one guy, I don't like the other guy, but oh, the
13:50guy who I don't like just won, that's crazy.
13:54He kind of came in a little bit unlikable.
13:56But as it's gone on, and you see the destruction, you see the talent, you see the crispness
14:01of the technique and everything like that, he has turned into one of my favorite fighters
14:05to watch.
14:06Which is too bad, because you only get to watch him for like two and a half minutes,
14:08because that's how quickly he is getting guys out of the cage with that.
14:13But he has one of the most meteoric rises in the history of the sport.
14:18Starting from kickboxing, where he was quite good.
14:21And then quickly into the UFC.
14:23Like nine fights in, he's a two-division champion.
14:27And is toward the top of most pound-for-pound rankings.
14:30And now he's calling out heavyweights.
14:32And I think that will continue.
14:33He goes up against Khalil Roundtree.
14:35We talked about this a little bit on Tuesday.
14:37It's a weird situation that Roundtree has found himself in.
14:39What's he going to do?
14:40Turn down a title shot?
14:41Of course not.
14:42But his last fight was called off because he had a positive test for a banned substance.
14:51And then, instead of, okay, well let's give you one more fight, whatever, he just gets
14:55a title shot.
14:56It's insane that he is in this spot.
14:59But it's an opportunity for him.
15:01Also, he is another guy who comes from The Ultimate Fighter, and so he's another dude
15:04who my wife is actually kind of a big fan of.
15:06He can bring the action.
15:08And I think that for however long this fight lasts, it will be fun.
15:12He has basically a puncher's chance.
15:15And that's about it.
15:17I think all of the circumstances leading into this fight would make this one of the biggest
15:22upsets in the history of the sport if Khalil Roundtree was able to pull that off.
15:27It would just, it would be so out of nowhere, given all the circumstances leading into this
15:32fight, that it would be just mind-boggling for him to pull it off.
15:35Like, the thing that he is good at, Pereira is one of the best in the world at, so it's
15:40a really difficult situation for Roundtree to get into.
15:43Now, he has the skill and technique that he can land a shot and change the world.
15:47I simply do not see that happening.
15:49So I am going to go Pereira to win this fight, rather convincingly, and probably quickly,
15:54in the main event of UFC 307 in Salt Lake City.