As Kashmir navigates its first election post-abrogation of Article 370, a sense of hope and anticipation emerges amid a complex history of conflict and efforts to restore peace.
With a significant voter turnout of 61.38% in phase 1 and 54.11% in phase 2 of polling, along with a diverse candidate pool, this election marks a critical juncture in the region’s political evolution.
In an interview with Tarique Anwar, Amarjit Singh Dulat (AS Dulat), former special director of the Intelligence Bureau, ex-secretary of the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) and a well-known expert on Kashmir, shares his perspective on the region’s intricate geopolitical landscape.
Reporter: Tarique Anwar
Camera: Suresh Pandey and Vikram Sharma
Editor: Sudhanshu
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#KashmirElections #Article370 #Democracy #KashmirVotes #KashmirPolitics #AmarjitDulat #JammuKashmirElections #JammuKashmirElections2024 #AssemblyElections2024
With a significant voter turnout of 61.38% in phase 1 and 54.11% in phase 2 of polling, along with a diverse candidate pool, this election marks a critical juncture in the region’s political evolution.
In an interview with Tarique Anwar, Amarjit Singh Dulat (AS Dulat), former special director of the Intelligence Bureau, ex-secretary of the Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) and a well-known expert on Kashmir, shares his perspective on the region’s intricate geopolitical landscape.
Reporter: Tarique Anwar
Camera: Suresh Pandey and Vikram Sharma
Editor: Sudhanshu
Follow us:
Website: https://www.outlookindia.com/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Outlookindia
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/outlookindia/
X: https://twitter.com/Outlookindia
Whatsapp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaNrF3v0AgWLA6OnJH0R
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@OutlookMagazine
Dailymotion: https://www.dailymotion.com/outlookindia
#KashmirElections #Article370 #Democracy #KashmirVotes #KashmirPolitics #AmarjitDulat #JammuKashmirElections #JammuKashmirElections2024 #AssemblyElections2024
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NewsTranscript
00:00You see, I think one of the takeaways of the abrogation, and I would say also a muscular
00:08policy that what the Hurriyat thought of itself, you know, that they were big, that is all
00:15gone.
00:16The arrogance of the Hurriyat is finished.
00:18And actually the Hurriyat is finished.
00:20If you want to revive it, you can revive it.
00:23People are always there.
00:24But if you want to revive it, then my question is, why is the poor Mirwais, who is the center
00:31of the Hurriyat, if there's anyone left, it is the Mirwais, and he has a role in Kashmir.
00:36Then why is he on the house arrest?
00:38Why is he not out in the open?
00:40Why is he not asked to contest the elections?
00:44And I don't know whether he would, but he is the main, let's say, separatist leader
00:50or a leader with that kind of leaning.
00:54Most of it is finished.
00:55Let me tell you.
00:56Pakistan also is finished.
00:57Mainstreaming is a very important part of dealing or handling Kashmir, and I think it
01:01goes back to 1947, because what has been our problem in Kashmir, the problem has been Pakistan.
01:08So Delhi's effort throughout has been to mainstream Kashmir.
01:13And you know, first we started with Sheikh Abdullah, and he was mainstreamed in 1975
01:18when he entered into an accord with Indira Gandhi.
01:21So after that, Farooq has been mainstreamed.
01:25The other mainstream leaders are mainstream.
01:28The Hurriyat was also getting mainstreamed.
01:30Now it is mainstreamed, I think.
01:33But you mentioned an interesting thing that the Jamaat is participating in the elections.
01:38So are some old Hurriyat people participating.
01:43So somebody is reviving all this for their political gain, but it won't happen.
01:51Hello, and welcome to Outlook Talks.
01:58My name is Tariq Anwar.
02:00In this segment today, we have with us Mr. A. S. Dulat.
02:04He was former Special Director, Intelligence Bureau, former Secretary, Research and Analysis
02:10Wing, and post-retirement.
02:12In the year 2000, he was appointed as an advisor on Jammu and Kashmir in the Prime Minister's
02:18Office, where he served from January 2000 to May 2004.
02:23He has authored many books.
02:25In 2015, he came to the center stage on account of his book, Kashmir, The Vajpayee Years.
02:34In 2018, he co-authored another book called The Spy Chronicles, R.A.W.
02:41Raw, ISI, and The Illusion of Peace with ex-ISI chief Asad Durrani.
02:48Again, so sir, let me begin by asking you, what is Kashmir according to you?
02:58Kashmir is Kashmir.
03:00And right now, it's going through, I think a momentous election, it's a very important
03:06election for everybody.
03:09And you'll see that there's been a very high percentage of voting in the first phase, today
03:16is the second phase, the amount of candidates who are contesting, it's a big thing.
03:23And this time, winning and losing is important, you know, because everybody is waiting to
03:30see what will happen in this election.
03:33So this is the first election after 10 years in the abrogation of Article 370.
03:39A lot has happened in the past 10 years.
03:41What's your comment on that?
03:43Well, you know, it's been up and down.
03:45I mean, there are some positive things like, which the government always points out like,
03:54you know, stone pelting and hartaz and all have stopped.
03:59They've stopped because of our initial muscular policy that we adopted after the abrogation
04:04because I think there was a fear in Delhi that there may be a huge revolt or something,
04:09which never happened.
04:11So I think because of that, the Kashmiris decided not to come out and unnecessarily
04:21get killed.
04:22So the muscular policy worked, but and militancy, you know, I differentiate between militancy
04:31and terrorism.
04:32Militancy is our homegrown, what happens with our own boys, Kashmiris are involved.
04:40And that went up and down.
04:42We saw that first it started in the south, which was most vulnerable.
04:49But the most difficult part of Kashmir actually is the north, because that's where the infiltration
04:55takes place from, traditionally has taken place from.
05:00And the worst terror has come in the north, the worst killings have happened in the north.
05:09And then also, what was striking was that there was a period when it came to the center
05:13to Srinagar, which normally doesn't happen.
05:17So these were disturbing trends.
05:19Now all that has thankfully, it is largely over.
05:24But we still have to deal with terror, which comes from Pakistan.
05:29And you know, time and again, we've seen in that area of Poonch and Rajouri, the army
05:36has faced a very difficult situation, because that is a difficult area.
05:42It's thickly forested, time and again, terrorists have come in and killed the army.
05:52And now it has shifted to Jammu of late.
05:56I think out of the 10 districts in Jammu, it has been affected by terrorism, some attacked
06:03by the other.
06:05So it's all right, we hope the elections go through peacefully, and then let's see who
06:11wins and what kind of government is formed.
06:14That is the situation.
06:15So you mentioned muscular policy.
06:18Earlier, you criticized National Security Advisor.
06:21No, no, I don't criticize him, I don't dare criticize him.
06:25But you called him hawkish for his handling, hardliner position in handling the border
06:31disputes with China.
06:33In your book, A Life in the Shadows, MMR, you have a full chapter on Dowell's strategy,
06:43muscular power in Kashmir.
06:44You see, let me say very clearly, Dowell and I are friends, we've been colleagues, we work
06:52together.
06:53And a lot of people don't know that we work together in Kashmir.
06:57His way of dealing with things is slightly different from mine, possibly he's been more
07:02successful.
07:03I can't challenge Mr. Dowell in anything, because he's one of our best operatives.
07:11So I think that's what it is, as far as Dowell goes.
07:16So in 2023, you again, there's something called Dowell's Doctrine, which again, you criticized
07:26in 2023, for handling the Kashmir conflict with Pakistan, it is that, that Dowell Doctrine
07:36and...
07:37No, no, you see, these are things which people say and mention that there is a Dowell Doctrine
07:43which is hardline.
07:45And then somebody said, people say there is a Dullard Doctrine which is soft.
07:49So yeah, as I said, we are different types of people and I didn't know that there was
07:54a Dullard Doctrine till the former Governor Satpal Malik, when I met him and I introduced
08:01myself, I said, you know, I'm Dullard, he says, I've heard a lot about you in Kashmir.
08:08So I didn't know there was such a Doctrine and I still don't know what this Doctrine
08:12is.
08:13But yeah, there is a difference between Ajit and myself, he's tougher, maybe I'm a little
08:19softer.
08:20Our former Director Intelligence Bureau, Mr. M. K. Narayanan used to say that when I want
08:28to wield the stick in Kashmir, I send Dowell, when I want to offer the carrot, I send Dullard.
08:34So that's what the difference is.
08:38Many Kashmir Watchers, including you, were of the opinion that peace attempts would collapse
08:43with the abrogation of Article 370.
08:46You yourself had said that separatism, not terrorism and Hurriyat will all be finished.
08:52Is it so as Hurriyat is still there?
08:56They have taken, Jamaat-e-Islam is taking part in the election.
09:01So you see, I think one of the takeaways of the abrogation and I would say also a muscular
09:10policy that what the Hurriyat thought of itself, that they were big, that is all gone.
09:20The arrogance of the Hurriyat is finished.
09:22And actually the Hurriyat is finished.
09:24If you want to revive it, you can revive it, the people are always there.
09:28But if you want to revive it, then my question is, why is the poor Mirwais, who is the center
09:35of the Hurriyat, if there's anyone left, it is the Mirwais.
09:39He has a role in Kashmir.
09:40Then why is he under house arrest?
09:42Why is he not out in the open?
09:45Why is he not asked to contest the elections?
09:48I don't know whether he would, but he is the main, let's say, separatist leader or a leader
09:56with that kind of leaning.
09:58Most of it is finished, let me tell you, Pakistan also is finished.
10:01But yes, because you know, in Kashmir, Pakistan remains a little factor.
10:07So, therefore, I think Kashmiri leaders, whether it is Dr. Farooq Abdullah, whether it is Mirwais,
10:16they keep saying that we need to talk to Pakistan.
10:19And I agree, we should talk to Pakistan.
10:22So you once said that militancy would come down, continue to come down, but terrorism
10:28will stay unless we sort out issues with Pakistan and bat it for dialogue with the neighbor.
10:36Many dialogues have already taken place.
10:38What happened?
10:40So continue talking.
10:44Not every dialogue will succeed.
10:46Now what is happening?
10:47You mentioned China in particular.
10:49I don't know China.
10:50I can talk about Kashmir.
10:52But we need to sort out something with China also.
10:55It requires a dialogue.
10:57You know, it will not happen militarily.
11:00Neither they can come and take over India, nor we can go into China.
11:06So it has to be sorted out diplomatically and negotiations stop it.
11:11BJP, which is in the center, has traditionally maintained a position that it will not negotiate
11:23with any non-state actors.
11:26And you talk about holding dialogues with Pakistan.
11:31I still do.
11:33And I still believe it will happen.
11:34Because it's a necessity.
11:36Even if it's a showpiece, you need to do it.
11:39You have to do it.
11:41And it will happen.
11:42This is my belief.
11:43So coming back to elections again, given the Jamaat-e-Islami Kashmir participating in election
11:50after 37 years, what impact do you foresee this shift having on the broader political
11:57landscape in Kashmir?
11:59One.
12:00Second.
12:01Do you think this could lead to Hezbollah Mujahideen, which has been supported by the
12:06Jamaat, shifting its strategy in any way?
12:09No, I think the Hezbollah is almost finished.
12:14There's nothing much left in the Hezbollah Mujahideen.
12:18There may be a few boys coming occasionally, but largely the Hezbollah is over.
12:24There are other Tanzeems now.
12:26There was Lashkar, which is the Pakistani Tanzeem set up by the ISI.
12:31That also is flittering away.
12:32So it's now more the Jaish and also now they've got different names.
12:40They call it resistance force and things like that.
12:45But whatever they call it, it's all from Pakistan.
12:48There are continued grievances of people in Kashmir with regard to their survival, identity,
12:55dignity and language.
12:56What's your comment on that?
12:57How do you see that?
12:59There's one little point, that's all.
13:01And this is not, it has nothing to do with abrogation.
13:04Of course, it's got accentuated with the abrogation, but it's, I've been hearing it pre-abrogation
13:11also.
13:12There's only one fear that the Kashmiri carries or has, that he should not be reduced to a
13:17minority in his own state.
13:19That's all.
13:20So that will take care of whatever you're saying, dignity and things like that.
13:25And of course, you know, abrogation, 370 is gone.
13:28It's dead.
13:29It's finished.
13:30It's not going to come back, no matter what the politicians say.
13:33But what is required, and I think there's a commitment in Parliament of the government
13:39to restore statehood.
13:40And the earlier it is done, the better it is.
13:43You have time and again said that Delhi always viewed the valley, the region of Jammu and
13:50Kashmir in black and white and ignored its grace.
13:56What are the grays that you always refer to?
14:00The gray is like that.
14:01The Kashmiri is basically gray, you know.
14:05And Delhi likes to see things in black and white, you know, including myself.
14:10But then you realize that Kashmir is not either white or black.
14:16It's more gray.
14:17It's in between.
14:19And Mirwais once said to me, I said, you know, ap log sab jhoot bolte hain.
14:25He said, yes, but you teach us how to lie.
14:28You taught us how to lie, because you don't speak the truth with us.
14:32So neither do we.
14:33It has impacted the Kashmiri character, but it has also inherited the Kashmiri character.
14:41The Kashmiri is not easy to understand.
14:42There are many layers within layers within layers.
14:46And by the time you get through those layers, you find you failed in understanding the Kashmiri.
14:51So it takes a lot of time.
14:52It requires a lot of patience.
14:55It requires a lot of understanding.
14:59And once you start understanding, you'll find the Kashmiris are wonderful people.
15:04In your previous comment, you have mentioned this.
15:06But let me ask you once again, there are two narratives.
15:12You perceive unrest in the valley as militancy, but the government calls it terrorism.
15:17What is the difference between the two?
15:19Actually, there is no difference.
15:23Difference was, I had created the difference in my mind that, let's look at it like this,
15:29that, you know, we've been talking of militancy, we've been talking of terrorism.
15:32Actually, it's all terrorism.
15:34But I look at what our boys do, you know, because they are our boys, you know.
15:41When it started in South Kashmir, as I told you, boys said at one time, that they were
15:47prepared to die in the name of Allah.
15:49All that has stopped now.
15:50But nobody wants to die ultimately, or die for what, you know.
15:55And this thing has been this intifada, if you want to call it that, has been going on
16:00for so many years.
16:03All that, all that it has brought to Kashmir is death and destruction.
16:07The government has not solved any problem for Kashmir.
16:13So that's how it is.
16:15Let's go back to the neighbor once again.
16:17In the light of ongoing political upheaval in Pakistan, how do you anticipate this might
16:24affect the situation in Kashmir?
16:26Do you see any potential shift in policy or dynamics?
16:29From the Pakistani side?
16:30Yes.
16:32They're already showing their hand that, you know, they'll continue with this terrorism.
16:37It's not stopped.
16:39Sometimes it comes down.
16:40Now, I think because of the elections, it has reduced.
16:44But we've seen a lot of it in Jammu, and we've seen a lot of it in Punjab, Rajouri, where
16:49it keeps happening.
16:50Even during the election, there was an attack in Kishtwar or somewhere.
16:56So it's not over.
16:58Obviously, that's the Pakistan policy for the time being, that we'll do this.
17:04So in the light of political unrest in Pakistan, do you anticipate any effect in the situation
17:13in Kashmir?
17:14No, I don't think so.
17:16I think they've made that position quite clear by continuing with terrorism.
17:22That's why I say one needs to talk to Pakistan.
17:24What is the point of all this?
17:26What are you trying to prove?
17:27Because if you can do it, we can also do it.
17:31So, there is no other way.
17:35While the Modi government's decision to strip Kashmir of its special status brought global
17:42criticism, yet for the first time, India has invited world diplomats from countries around
17:48the globe to observe the elections, which is ongoing.
17:53How do you think this move will influence international perceptions of the political
17:58situation in the region?
17:59You know, this is not the first time that it has happened.
18:04It's a good thing.
18:05Let the diplomats or the foreigners go and see how we hold elections.
18:11We are a democratic country and let them have a look.
18:16This was done, I can remind you, in 2002 also, when Vajpayee was very clear, he wanted
18:23a free, fair, open election, which should be accepted not only in Kashmir or in India,
18:30but all over the world.
18:32And he asked, foreigners were told, whoever wants to go, can go and watch the elections.
18:39And by and large, the foreigners accepted that it was a free and fair election.
18:44So this time also, we hope the same, foreigners will think the same and come up with whatever.
18:51If they have to say anything, it will be positive.
18:55Mr. Duluth, with your long experience of Kashmir, what are the historical mistakes the BJP and
19:04the Congress have committed in Kashmir?
19:07Well, you know, people won't agree with me, but I think there have been watershed moments
19:15in Kashmir.
19:17I think, and that is how Pakistan got into Kashmir.
19:22I think one was the arrest of Sheikh Abdullah, of course, in 1953, and then the death of
19:31Sheikh in 1982, and then the dismissal of Farooq Abdullah, his son, in 1984.
19:39So these are watershed moments.
19:42There are others also, but these are the basic things, I mean, the big things.
19:47And Pakistan, you know, as long as the Sheikh was alive, let me tell you one more thing.
19:53The Abdullahs are quite despised in Pakistan, you know, because Pakistan has never forgiven
20:01the Sheikh for going with India rather than turning down Jinnah's offer of Pakistan.
20:07So I think we forget this sometimes, the Abdullahs are not liked in Pakistan.
20:13And therefore, as long as the Sheikh was alive, Pakistan didn't venture into Kashmir.
20:22And then they were waiting for him to go, and the Sheikh died in 1982.
20:29And when Farooq took over, they were waiting to see what will happen, what kind of leader
20:33he will be.
20:35And everybody in Kashmir says that Farooq's first tenure as chief minister, I think it
20:42only lasted about 18 months before he was dismissed, was his best.
20:47So after 1984 is when, in my mind, Pakistan started working on entering Kashmir and starting
20:59this whole business with the JKLF and then the Jamaat and the Hizbul Mujahideen and whatever
21:07it is.
21:08I think it was all post-84, because I think Zia-ul-Haq was then the president and between
21:18Zia and the ISI and also Amanullah Khan had gone back to Pakistan.
21:24All these things combined and to plan and plot and plan the insurgency in Kashmir.
21:32How do you see this notion of normalcy, even after this normalcy, attacks are happening,
21:41we are losing our soldiers, so many things are happening.
21:45I've said that, Kashmiri leaders keep saying that, Mahbuba keeps saying, Dr. Farooq keeps
21:51saying it, but where is the normalcy?
21:55And we project normalcy through tourism and tourism, yeah, it is doing well, it is thriving.
22:01A lot of tourists going to Kashmir and fortunately, and this is, you know, typical Kashmiri and
22:09Pakistani thing, that they will not disturb tourism, because Kashmir survives on tourism.
22:16Otherwise, it's very easy, I mean, if you can hit people in all over Jammu, it's not
22:22difficult to blow up a bus or something carrying tourists, but that does not happen.
22:30So that's how we project normalcy.
22:32You know, there is a kind of normalcy, but it's not the kind of normalcy that we want
22:37to see, because Kashmir has gone quiet and that disturbs me, there's been a sort of silence.
22:44And I think what will nip this silence in the bud is these elections.
22:51Once this result comes out, and Kashmir has a government of its own, whichever party it
22:57is, then I think the situation should change, hopefully.
23:02All these development projects, the smart city and all, is it, are they the remedy of
23:11restoring peace in the region?
23:13Yeah, yeah, that's all very good.
23:15But to restore peace in Kashmir and in the region, as you say, we must revive the political
23:22and democratic process.
23:25And with that, we must also restore statehood.
23:29Very simple as that.
23:30Now the political and democratic process, not so much the political, but the democratic
23:35process is happening now.
23:37And that's why I keep repeating that once these elections are over and we have a proper
23:43result, I think things might, hopefully might change.
23:48New Delhi keeps talking about normalcy, Kashmir being mainstreamed, everything is happening
23:59positively.
24:00Still, UAPA and PSA have been slapped against journalists, politicians, will it help bring
24:10peace in the region, number one?
24:13And if there is normalcy, what these barbed wires, bunkers, such operations are?
24:19That happens because, as I say, you know, terrorism hasn't gone, it's still there.
24:25And Pakistan has that capability of disturbing the peace.
24:29So it continues.
24:32And as I said, the normalcy is when in the summer and the summer is continuing yet.
24:39This is a very good season in Kashmir, one of the best, autumn.
24:44There will be tourists, there are always tourists.
24:46So that is normalcy.
24:47But I think the greater normalcy will come once we have an elected government in Kashmir.
24:55The Kashmiri criticism since the abrogation of 370 is that we are being ruled by outsiders.
25:04So hopefully that will end with the elections.
25:09And booking journalists, politicians under UAPA, PSA, will it help New Delhi to restore
25:16peace there?
25:17I don't think so.
25:18But I don't know which journalists you're talking about, which politicians you're talking
25:24about.
25:25But I think the politicians are all out.
25:26You mentioned another thing about mainstreaming.
25:30Now, mainstreaming is a very important part of dealing or handling Kashmir.
25:35I think it goes back to 1947.
25:37Because what has been our problem in Kashmir?
25:39The problem has been Pakistan.
25:42So Delhi's effort throughout has been to mainstream Kashmir.
25:47And you know, first we started with Sheikh Abdullah and he was mainstreamed in 75 when
25:52he entered into an accord with Indira Gandhi.
25:55So after that, Farooq has been mainstreamed.
25:59The other mainstream leaders are mainstream.
26:02The Hurriyat was also getting mainstreamed.
26:04Now it is mainstreamed, I think.
26:07But you mentioned an interesting thing that the Jamaat is participating in the elections.
26:12So are some old Hurriyat people participating.
26:18So somebody is reviving all this for their political gain.
26:23But it won't happen.
26:24There is a criticism of Jamaat that they have now become BJP agents.
26:29I don't want to comment on all that, whose agents they are.
26:32The election results will tell you, you know, who is agent, who is whose agent.
26:37But the point is, the Jamaat has participated in elections in the past.
26:42Gilani Sahib participated five or six times.
26:46And he was Pakistan's last man standing.
26:49I think he participated maybe five times and lost three times, or participated six times
26:55and won three times, something like that.
26:57But he did participate.
26:59One last thing.
27:01You had so many last things.
27:06Do you watch movies?
27:08Yeah, of course, I watch movies.
27:10I mean, not regularly, but I watch movies.
27:12I have seen Kashmir Files.
27:14How was it?
27:15No, no, I didn't see it.
27:17I didn't see it.
27:18But what I heard about it was, I mean, the Kashmiri was critical of it.
27:23If the Kashmiri is critical, I think I would also be critical if I saw it.
27:28But I haven't seen it.
27:29This is what Mr. Duluth had to say, ladies and gentlemen.
27:34Thanks for watching.
27:36Stay tuned.