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00:00For more analysis, we can cross live to Filippo Dionighi, who is a Senior Lecturer of Politics
00:05and International Relations at the University of Bristol. Let me ask you, we've heard from
00:12Hezbollah, they vowed to respond to this, but what do we know about their military capabilities?
00:18What kind of response are we looking at? Well, it's difficult to say. The military
00:23capacity of Hezbollah has been showed off in several forms of videos, speeches, and
00:31also through actions such as rocket launching and attacks on Israeli territory. We don't know
00:37exactly what we don't know about Hezbollah, and therefore what we really are going to expect at
00:44this point is difficult to predict. We know that Hassan Nasrallah, the Secretary General of
00:50Hezbollah, is going to talk tonight at 5pm Beirut time. And at that point, perhaps we are going to
00:57find out a little bit more what is going to be the stance of Hezbollah towards this latest
01:01unprecedented attack. And how can Hezbollah possibly organise itself now? I mean, what we
01:08can assume are quite key communications means, backup communications means, have been severely
01:14destroyed. What comes next then? Again, it's uncharted territory. It is true that the
01:23communication system for Hezbollah is a very important instrument. In 2008, there was a domestic
01:30Lebanese situation in which the then government has attempted to dismantle the communication
01:36system that Hezbollah manages secretly in Lebanon in order to communicate with its troops and its
01:43members. And at that point, the reaction of Hezbollah was extremely harsh, up to a point
01:47that the country was almost on the brink of a civil war, meaning that its communication system
01:53is a very important asset. The extent to which has been damaged by yesterday and the day before
01:59attacks is difficult to assess. We know that the pager system at this point has become obsolete.
02:05Yesterday, two ways radios were targeted, apparently. Also, other devices were involved
02:11in the attack. And that means that, again, its communication capacity is probably compromised,
02:17at least for what is relevant for this type of aerial communication, at least. This type of
02:24telecommunication. We don't know. There are reports that says that there are other communications
02:30channels. But again, for Hezbollah, this is a significant blow in that sense.
02:38I want also to mention, in reality, what really we're witnessing now is also that up until now,
02:43the war that we saw between Israel and Hezbollah was relatively contained. And also, particularly,
02:50Israeli targets were mostly at the elite level and at the top level of the command in most of
02:55the cases. The past days instead, we've witnessed that at this point, the targets are more in the
03:01rank and file capacity, military capacity of Hezbollah, meaning that also, you know,
03:07the younger generations, the ones that have been, that were born and raised in the myth of Hezbollah
03:14invulnerability, have probably, you know, witnessed, experienced a degree of lack of
03:21trust at this point towards the organisation, which is the kind of confidence Hezbollah needs
03:25to regain in order to continue this war, if that's what they intend to. And a little earlier,
03:31we spoke to our correspondent in Jerusalem about the latest comments from the Israeli defence
03:36minister. What's your take on that? What does he mean by the centre of gravity of this war is
03:41moving north? Well, as we were hearing from your correspondent, the issue for Israel, I mean,
03:49the issue between Israel and Hezbollah is a longstanding one. It goes on at least until
03:54since, you know, the early 80s. But at this point, in conjunction with the Gaza war, Hezbollah has
04:01entered the conflict into what they refer to as a solidarity war, as a way of distracting forces
04:08from Gaza and keeping and trying to wear out the Israeli military capacity. The result of it has
04:15been that the north of Israel has been evacuated and tens of thousands of Israelis have been
04:20displaced by the north of Israel, effectively creating an area, an empty area for the north
04:26of Israel, which has significant economic costs for Israel itself. But also in terms of political
04:33objectives, the Netanyahu's government is a government that tends to portray itself as the
04:37government that provides security. And obviously not being able to control that area and provide
04:42security in that area is a major defeat for Israel up until this point. So possibly the objective at
04:50this point is try to decouple the conflict in Lebanon and Gaza and try to focus more on the
05:00Lebanese front and try, therefore, to guarantee a degree of security in that part of Israel,
05:04north of Israel, so that the return of Israelis in that part will be possible again.
05:10I just wanted to ask you very briefly, because we're running out of time.
05:13How do you think Washington feels about all of this? I mean, they've told Israel to avoid
05:18provocations, to avoid escalations. But, you know, we've seen what's presumably Israel is
05:24behind assassinations of high-level commanders like Ismail Haniyeh. It is difficult to say.
05:30The stance of Washington towards Israel at this point has been ambivalent. They claim that they
05:36want a diplomatic solution. They've also tried to negotiate a ceasefire in Gaza, which remains the
05:42key issue, because if Israel agrees to a ceasefire in Gaza, the northern border will also become
05:50quieter, because that's also something that Hezbollah has said themselves. Again,
05:55their stance remains ambivalent. It seems to prioritize a diplomatic solution, and that's
06:01what Amos Holstein has been trying to negotiate so far. But in reality, they don't seem to put as
06:07much pressure as you would expect towards Israel to achieve that diplomatic solution.
06:13Therefore, you know, now they're busy with elections and campaigning, of course,
06:16which is a distraction. But again, if the United States wants to achieve greater results,
06:21it can, in fact, put much greater pressure on Israel to achieve that solution.
06:27All right. Filippo Dionighi from the University of Bristol, thank you very much for your analysis.
06:33Pleasure.