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00:00Welcome to Apropos.
00:04The stakes couldn't be higher.
00:06Following weeks of personal attacks on the Democratic candidate,
00:10Kamala Harris is set to come face-to-face with her rival for the White House
00:14in just a few hours' time in a clash that could prove pivotal.
00:18They're meeting for what could possibly be their only TV debate of the campaign
00:22to showcase their starkly different visions for the country
00:26after a tumultuous summer in a contest that could come down
00:29to tens of thousands of votes in a handful of states.
00:33Even a small shift in public opinion could alter the outcome of the election.
00:37With the latest on the highly anticipated clash between Harris and Donald Trump,
00:41here's Antonia Kerrigan.
00:45Extremely tight in the polls, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are now counting down
00:49to their live debate in Philadelphia.
00:52The format of the showdown has been the result of much negotiation.
00:5590 minutes of debate time on ABC News with no live audience in the room,
01:00structured by moderators asking questions,
01:03and each candidate afforded a fixed allowance of answer time,
01:06rebuttal time and follow-up, clarification or response time.
01:10Candidates will be armed with only pen, paper and a bottle of water,
01:14and there will be no lifelines.
01:16Prepared notes are strictly prohibited,
01:18as is consulting with campaign staff during the ad breaks.
01:21The date and host channel were agreed on in May by the Trump and Biden campaigns.
01:26But after wrangling in recent weeks,
01:28it's almost a surprise the debate is going ahead at all.
01:31In early August, Republican candidate Donald Trump said he was pulling the plug,
01:35soon after it became apparent that his opponent would be Vice President Harris
01:39instead of outgoing President Biden,
01:42calling instead for an alternative date on Fox News.
01:45The former president confirmed his participation at the end of August,
01:49but has continued to insist the process is rigged against him,
01:52like at a town hall on the Fox News channel last week.
02:15Meanwhile, his opponent appears quietly confident.
02:20Despite not having entirely got her way either.
02:23Originally, the Biden campaign demanded that mics be off,
02:26except when the candidate has the floor,
02:28perhaps for fear that Biden be distracted by interruptions.
02:32But the Harris campaign wanted both mics on,
02:34so the former prosecutor could shine by shutting down any interruptions
02:38and put the spotlight on any loss of composure by her opponent.
02:42Her campaign eventually relented on the demand,
02:44but put it in writing that they consider the mics off rule
02:47puts her at a disadvantage.
02:50For more on the debate, we're joined now by Jordan Cash,
02:53Assistant Professor of Political Science at Michigan State University.
02:57Thank you so much for being with us on the programme this evening, Jordan.
03:01Firstly, opinion polls suggesting the race is neck and neck.
03:04Just how pivotal is this debate and what are you expecting
03:08in terms of how the two candidates will perform?
03:11It is quite pivotal, given how close the polls have been lately.
03:15And the fact that this might be the only debate that the two candidates have.
03:19So this is really the only chance that Americans will have,
03:22that we know of, to see how they'll perform.
03:25And especially for, I would say, Kamala Harris,
03:28I think there's a bit more at stake,
03:29given that she hasn't done many media appearances.
03:32She hasn't really gone off script.
03:34So this might be the only chance that Americans have to see Kamala Harris
03:38and how she performs under pressure without a teleprompter.
03:41I think it's a little bit less for Trump,
03:43but definitely with the polls as close as they are,
03:45this might be the one opportunity that either campaign has to break away.
03:49As to what we should expect, I would anticipate that, as was mentioned earlier,
03:53having the mics off will probably help Trump.
03:55It will help him be more disciplined,
03:57like he was in the first debate against Joe Biden.
04:00I would also anticipate that Trump is likely to try to tie Harris
04:04more to the Biden administration,
04:06to really emphasize that the policies of the Biden administration
04:09are the Biden-Harris policies,
04:12particularly on immigration, inflation, the economy generally.
04:16With Harris, I would expect her to focus more on character issues,
04:19to the extent that she's going to focus on policy.
04:21I would imagine she's going to emphasize Trump's positions,
04:25mainly previous positions on abortion,
04:27since Trump has tried to moderate in recent weeks,
04:29but also introducing herself
04:32and trying to draw a personality contrast with Trump.
04:36That so far has been her main line in the campaign,
04:39to show herself as what's often called the vibe shift or good vibes candidate.
04:44I imagine she'll try to do that again
04:46and emphasize Trump's abrasive personality
04:50and perhaps even bring up his felony convictions from a few months ago.
04:54Do you think she's likely to come under pressure then for backtracking,
04:57as some would have it, over liberal policies she's previously championed?
05:02If we talk about things like fracking, immigration, nationalizing health insurance,
05:08how do you think that's going to play for her?
05:10Yeah, I imagine that will be a big part of the debate.
05:14Trump in particular, I think, is going to focus on that
05:16and try to demonstrate that Harris has, you might say,
05:22changed or flip-flopped on the issues a fair bit.
05:25Considering that Harris, again, hasn't been out in public that much in an unscripted way,
05:30and when she has been asked on these questions,
05:32like at her CNN interview about a week ago,
05:36she didn't have a great answer for it.
05:38She's really going to have to figure out how to answer for these perceived inconsistencies,
05:45why the Harris running now in 2024 is different from the Harris that ran in 2019-2020,
05:52because Trump is going to hammer her on that.
05:54I imagine she really needs to have a clear answer
05:57if she's going to try to introduce herself to the American public
06:00while she's under pressure and draw that contrast with Trump.
06:04What about policy issues?
06:06Who do you think is likely to be stronger when it comes to things like the economy,
06:09immigration, abortion?
06:11Do you expect that we're going to see a lot of detail revealed
06:14in those particular areas during the debate?
06:17I honestly would not look for a lot of detail.
06:20So far, neither candidate has been very specific on their plans
06:24for any of those policy areas.
06:26I will say when it comes to the polling, right now,
06:28Trump is leading on who Americans trust for the economy,
06:32for inflation, for immigration,
06:34while Harris leads on who Americans trust to handle abortion issues.
06:38So I wouldn't imagine that there's going to be terribly much specifics,
06:42but they're definitely going to play to their strengths.
06:45How would you defeat a debater like Donald Trump?
06:48His performance, it did go under the radar during the debate against Joe Biden,
06:52following that catastrophic debate for Joe Biden,
06:55but it's going to be an entirely different ballgame this evening, isn't it?
07:00It certainly is, and that's a big question.
07:02How do you defeat Donald Trump in a debate?
07:05So far, perhaps the best strategy and the one that it seems Harris might go,
07:10based on some of the rumblings and rumors going around,
07:13is that really the only way you beat Donald Trump in a debate
07:16is to let him defeat himself.
07:18That is more or less what happened in 2020 when he debated Joe Biden,
07:22that he came in very aggressive,
07:25as I think most acknowledge, too aggressive in his debates with Joe Biden,
07:29and that really turned a lot of Americans off.
07:31So I would imagine, and I think that's why Harris wanted the hot mics on,
07:34so then Trump could, again, kind of let him talk, let him interrupt,
07:39let him get rattled, and he tends to maybe not be as cohesive
07:46or as presidential when he gets in such a position.
07:51So I imagine Harris is going to have a very difficult time doing that
07:54with the mics off and without a live audience.
07:57The stage is kind of set up against her in that way.
08:00But she's going to have to find a way to rattle Trump
08:03and get off his game a little bit, get him off balance.
08:07And are we likely to see, do you think, Harris the prosecutor
08:11go after Trump the felon?
08:13And if she does take that stance, do you think it risks making her look
08:17like she's coming across as being less presidential?
08:21I wouldn't necessarily say that.
08:23I do think we're going to see Harris take that line of attack.
08:26She's been doing that in her speeches recently.
08:28I don't know that it would make her seem less presidential
08:32insofar as she tries to make that case.
08:36It would, I think, remind Americans that Trump is, again,
08:39a controversial figure, has had these legal problems.
08:42Trump, I think, would, and that might be one way to rattle him,
08:46because I think Trump is very defensive over what he sees
08:49as politically motivated legal attacks.
08:53So that might be one way to do it.
08:55I don't think it will make Harris look presidential,
08:57but it may take the focus off of what Americans are probably
09:00more interested in, which is to hear what she's actually
09:02bringing to the table.
09:04And those Americans, they will remember how Donald Trump
09:06came across when he debated against Hillary Clinton
09:09last time round.
09:11Do you think he's in danger of damaging his support
09:14among female voters this time if he comes across
09:17as badgering his opponent?
09:19He has been quite critical of Kamala Harris in recent weeks.
09:23Yes, and that's the risk to Trump.
09:26And again, I think one of those things that if you get him
09:28off balance and rattle him and he starts making personal attacks,
09:31that's the risk.
09:33For Trump, he really needs to focus on the policy issues
09:36where polls say he is stronger than Harris, tying Harris
09:40to what are perceived as unpopular policies
09:43of the Biden administration.
09:45If he gets into the personal stuff, starts going after
09:47Harris personally, I think that's where he does start
09:50to look unpresidential.
09:52He looks like he's badgering, as you said, and risks making
09:55her look like the more presidential candidate,
09:58the one who's cool under fire.
10:00And do you think the debate could end up swinging voters
10:02in any particular direction?
10:04I guess that is the big question.
10:07It comes just days before early voting gets underway
10:10in certain states.
10:12I think so.
10:14Like I said earlier, this is likely to be the only time
10:17that we see these two on the same stage, unscripted,
10:21and actually speaking with each other.
10:24I think for a lot of Americans who are undecided,
10:28this is where they're going to make up their minds.
10:30And with early voting starting so soon, this is probably
10:33the last shot that either campaigns have to really
10:36make a breakaway.
10:38Of course, there's a long time until November,
10:41but with early voting coming up, if you want to put yourself
10:44in a more secure position, this is the time to do it.
10:47And, John, do you think there'll be a clear winner,
10:49if we were talking to you this time tomorrow evening,
10:52will there be a clear winner coming out of this debate,
10:54do you believe?
10:56That's a very good question.
10:58I hesitate to say there'll be a clear winner,
11:01but I would not be surprised if there is a clear winner.
11:05I think it's going to come down to which candidate
11:08keeps their cool, is able to stay on message,
11:13not get rattled by the other candidate.
11:15And whoever can do that, I think, will look like the winner.
11:20Who do you think that winner is going to be,
11:22if we're going to put it to you?
11:25Oh, man, if you had to put it to me now,
11:27I will say given Trump's track record,
11:29I think he's coming in from a position of strength.
11:31The fact that Harris has not had a lot of these unscripted moments,
11:34and when she has, she hasn't done particularly well.
11:38The debates in 2019, when she was running for president
11:41for the 2020 cycle, didn't go well for her.
11:44So history, I would say, would give the edge to Trump.
11:49But, again, that's with limited information on what Harris can do.
11:53And we've never seen her in a one-on-one debate like this since 2020,
11:57and she did fairly well against Mike Pence.
12:00If I had to pick one, I'd say the edge is to Trump.
12:03But that's very, very slight.
12:06We'll find out how it all plays out in a few hours' time.
12:08Jordan, thank you so much for joining us.
12:10That's Jordan Cash, Assistant Professor of Political Science
12:13at Michigan State University.
12:16Well, that is it from us for now.
12:18Do stay with us, though.
12:19We'll be back shortly with more world news.