"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Selasa (10/09/2024) dengan Tema Peluang Jangka Pendek Jelang Keputusan Suku Bunga The Fed."
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00:00And next, we will look at the interesting economic agenda for us to discuss.
00:04From Asia, in Indonesia, there will be data on Indonesian retail sales in July last year.
00:10Then there is data on China's trade balance in August,
00:14and also industrial production in Malaysia in July last year.
00:19And also from the United States, there is a monthly OPEC report.
00:23And from Europe, there is the German IHK report in August,
00:27and also the Norman report in August,
00:30which is our year-on-year report.
00:32And next, for the emitting agenda,
00:34ITMG, Ex-Dividend Tune-in Trim,
00:36then BTON, and ANZO,
00:39and then MFME will host the RUPS.
00:46And next, we will look at the main Asian exchanges this morning.
00:54Main Asian Exchanges
00:59The main Asian exchanges this morning,
01:01Compaq, with Nikkei 225, opened at 0.53% at level 36,408.
01:06SCI Singapore opened at 0.37% at level 3,509.
01:10KOSPI Korea opened at 0.02% at level 2,536.
01:15Hang Seng Hong Kong opened at 0.05% at level 17,205.
01:19Investments
01:40And next, to discuss this morning,
01:42we have been connected by video conference,
01:44there is Mr. Herman Cahyadi,
01:46who is the Chief Investment Officer of BRI Investment Management.
01:50Good morning, Mr. Herman.
01:52Good morning, Mr. Wiki. Thank you for inviting me to BRI.
01:55I hope we are always in good health, Mr. Herman.
02:00Mr. Herman, let's talk about the two global factors,
02:03which are inflation from the United States,
02:05and also China's economic slowdown.
02:08How do these two things have a significant impact,
02:13or maybe one of the main concerns for domestic market players?
02:19Yes.
02:20So if we look at the inflation trend in the United States,
02:23it tends to decrease.
02:25So if we compare, for example,
02:27the total inflation in the United States in September 2022,
02:31two years ago, it reached 6.6%.
02:34Finally, the data released,
02:36the total inflation in the United States is already 3.2%.
02:40If we look at it again,
02:42the 3.2% is when we release the shelter component,
02:47the core inflation in the United States is actually 1.8%.
02:53And likewise, with other inflation indicators
02:56that are often used by the Fed as their reference,
02:58that's what we call the Personal Consumption Expenditure,
03:02it has also dropped from 5.5% in September 2022
03:07to the last figure of around 2.6%.
03:10That means that all the inflation indicators in the United States
03:16have also decreased.
03:17And that's what makes the market think
03:21that inflation has begun to be controlled
03:23so that the Fed has room to cut their flow rate.
03:27And this is supported by a weakening of their unemployment rate
03:32which rose to 4.3% in July last year,
03:36and now it has dropped slightly to 4.2%.
03:39So they, the market players,
03:42and even the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell himself,
03:47also said that this is the time for the Fed to change direction.
03:52It means that there will be a decline in the flow rate next week.
03:55And all of that is very, very much causing the dollar to weaken
04:00so that the emerging market currency, like the Rupiah,
04:03has also strengthened quite a bit in the last month.
04:06So the Rupiah has been strengthening around 5% since July.
04:13Then also, inflation is also pushed by the weakness of China's economy,
04:22which is the largest consumer community in the world.
04:26By weakening China, the price of these communities is quite stable
04:31even though there is a war in the Middle East and Russia.
04:34What can be done by domestic investors
04:37related to this mixed sentiment, Mr. Herman?
04:42Yes, so if we look at it, even though the IHSG is now 7,700,
04:48which is already an all-time high,
04:49but if we dig deeper,
04:51we see that the IDX80 index or LQ45 is not yet an all-time high.
04:58So, even though the IHSG is already an all-time high,
05:01it is only pushed by several big cap stocks
05:05whose movements are very, very extraordinary.
05:08But if we look at LQ45, IDX80,
05:13all of them are not yet an all-time high.
05:14So there are still stocks that still have their value,
05:19haven't moved too high.
05:22It means that if we look at the positive data from the United States
05:25it is also possible that the Fed itself will decrease the level of its trading
05:29and will have an impact on the momentum of the domestic market
05:33for stocks whose valuation is still low can be used.
05:37Because in the next few days there will be a sentiment
05:40that will trigger an increase in global trade
05:42and also the IHSG to be exact.
05:447,700, psychologically,
05:47is this a level that is expected to continue
05:54its strength?
05:55Or maybe you see this is already quite overbought?
05:58Mr. Herman.
06:00Yes, so if we look at it, we look at it in terms of length
06:03and in terms of short-term.
06:05If we look at it fundamentally too,
06:08actually, if we put the IHSG valuation in the PE band,
06:12it is still below average.
06:14So it's still around minus one standard deviation.
06:17It means that if we invest in the next one year,
06:21there is still an upside.
06:23Yes, if we look at it in terms of length, fundamentally one year.
06:28Now, if we look at it in a very short term,
06:32for example, in September,
06:34this September is also a little uncertain.
06:38So if we look at the last 20 years,
06:41in September, the first 10 years from 2004 to 2013,
06:46the tendency was 80%.
06:49So it means it's still 50-50.
06:51But even if there is a correction in September,
06:55it can be an opportunity to accumulate stock-to-stock M&A
07:01that has a strong fundamental.
07:03Because next year it may still be able to increase
07:06because the IHSG valuation or the stock value is still low.
07:10In the short term, for those who expect gains
07:13and a strong fundamental,
07:15in the short term, for those who expect gains from investment,
07:21it's not too bad.
07:26Because you saw earlier that there is a possibility
07:29that there may be a correction.
07:31But if we look at it in the long term,
07:34you saw earlier that there is a possibility,
07:36there is a potential upside,
07:38and it can be enjoyed.
07:41Okay, if we look at the sectors,
07:44which one do you recommend?
07:47And it looks interesting in terms of price,
07:49even if you want to enter now with an investment term
07:52that is not short, but long.
07:54Looking at some of the indicators earlier.
07:57So we see that the sectors that will be benefited
08:02by the development of Sukubunga Dovet
08:04and also Bank Indonesia in the future,
08:06are sectors that are interest rate sensitive.
08:09Such as banking, then property,
08:13and then also with a decrease in commodity prices,
08:17such as oil,
08:18it will also help the consumer sector.
08:23Consumer staple.
08:26So that's what investors can ...
08:29Advertise.
08:30Advertise.
08:31Okay, okay.
08:33Can we then talk specifically about the shares?
08:38As for the shares,
08:40what can be seen, for example,
08:42the Big Four Banks,
08:44we still see the future,
08:46especially for long-term investors,
08:48can still collect too.
08:50Then for the consumer sector,
08:52such as Mayora, ICBP,
08:55those are fundamental remittances.
09:01Okay, although in terms of price,
09:02Big Four Banks is already quite premium, right?
09:05Not yet.
09:06If we look at the price to book and PIB,
09:11it's still not there yet.
09:12It hasn't reached two standard deviations yet.
09:14Okay.
09:15Not to mention the price target
09:17from this Big Four, right?
09:19Yes.
09:20Okay, the possibilities for then
09:22there will be an increase,
09:24how many percent, sir, for this Big Four,
09:26in general?
09:28So we will not discuss,
09:31I mean, per each bank,
09:33how many percent,
09:34but we compare it like this,
09:36in terms of valuation,
09:37the IHSG, if we look at the valuation,
09:40in terms of earnings yield,
09:42it's about 7.4%.
09:45Compared to our 10-year SBN bonds,
09:48it's 6.6%.
09:49So actually,
09:51for investors who have a higher risk profile
09:54and have experience in stocks,
09:57the IHSG has higher earnings yield
10:00than the bond.
10:01And the same goes for LQ45.
10:03LQ45 has an earnings yield of 7.9%,
10:06even higher than the IHSG earnings yield,
10:09and also higher than the 10-year bond.
10:11So the upside is still there.
10:13Okay.
10:14Not to mention,
10:15then we will talk about
10:16the Samsung ProBasis Bank,
10:18which has a fairly large valuation,
10:19and this also reflects the movement
10:21from the IHSG that you just mentioned.
10:23Okay.
10:24If we look at the market conditions
10:26at the moment,
10:27because the indicators that are the consideration
10:29are various, Mr. Herman.
10:30For example,
10:31pay attention to value, growth, or momentum.
10:35Which should be the main consideration
10:38before we decide
10:40to execute the investment strategy?
10:43Yes.
10:44Of course,
10:45we are not a fund house
10:48that focuses on momentum,
10:50but we always pay attention to value and growth.
10:52Okay.
10:53For investors
10:55who have a paradigm of value,
11:00there are still a lot of stock values
11:02in the IHSG that can be respected.
11:05But what is certain is the value of the stock
11:08must be seen
11:09whether the emitter
11:11still has a competitive advantage
11:13and also the catalyst
11:15in the future.
11:17If there is no catalyst,
11:19it can be a value trap.
11:20And the same goes for growth stocks.
11:23We also invest in companies that have growth.
11:27But it must be growth at a reasonable price.
11:30So, I mean,
11:31there is growth,
11:32there is growth,
11:33but the valuation is still quite normal.
11:36So, we will not chase
11:38high valuation
11:39and the valuation is too high.
11:41Okay.
11:42If we had a chance to discuss
11:44the global sentiment
11:45from China and the United States,
11:47then talk about the domestic sentiment,
11:49maybe you are watching
11:51or is there any other global sentiment
11:53that you are now discussing?
11:56What is it, Mr. Herman?
11:58Yes, so from the global,
12:01we will wait for the decision of the Fed
12:03next week.
12:04Whether they will reduce
12:06the Fed rate by 25 or 50 bps.
12:09Meanwhile,
12:10the possibility of reducing 25 bps
12:12is around 70%,
12:13and 50 bps, 30%.
12:15So, that's what will be expected next week.
12:18And also,
12:19in the domestic sentiment,
12:22we also see that
12:24there is a decrease in purchasing power
12:26among the lower middle class.
12:30That's what we always monitor.
12:32And actually,
12:33the Purchasing Manager Index of Indonesia
12:36in the next two months
12:37is also below 50,
12:38which means a contraction.
12:39And this is what we hope
12:42the new cabinet will be formed
12:44in the next October.
12:46So, we have a strategy
12:48to boost economic growth
12:50among the lower middle class
12:52and also among the middle class.
12:54Okay, what's interesting is that
12:55some time ago,
12:56related to some policies
12:58that will be taken by the new government,
13:00related to allocations for construction
13:02construction in Ikan Nusantara
13:04which is only 4 trillion.
13:06How do you deal with construction-based stocks
13:09which then as a project
13:11get the completion project
13:13from Ikan Nusantara?
13:14How do you see this sector?
13:17Of course, by paying attention
13:19to the allocation of the budget
13:20from the new government, right?
13:22Mr. Herman.
13:23Yes.
13:24So, actually,
13:26we prefer sectors
13:28that have a stronger balance sheet.
13:31So, for now,
13:33we are not too focused
13:36on the construction company infrastructure,
13:39but we are more focused
13:42on the interest rate sensitive
13:44and also the consumer sector.
13:46Okay.
13:47We have already discussed
13:49how ISG can continue
13:52its strengthening.
13:54As a target,
13:55from the investment management BRI,
13:58for ISG,
13:59until the end of the year,
14:00at what level, Mr. Herman?
14:02Yes.
14:03So, our best case,
14:04the best scanner,
14:06is around 7,900.
14:08Okay, 7,900.
14:10Okay.
14:11Let's move on to other stocks
14:14that are also getting attention
14:16from investors,
14:17other than the sectors
14:19that you mentioned earlier,
14:21related to conglomerates
14:23whose movements are very attractive.
14:25In your opinion,
14:26what is the analysis like?
14:28Yes.
14:29So, some conglomerate movements
14:32that are attractive,
14:33do you mean too high or too low?
14:35Yes.
14:36In terms of movement,
14:37this is quite fluctuating.
14:39The movement is also,
14:41the strength is also very interesting.
14:43In your opinion, what is it like?
14:45Yes.
14:46So, back to what you said earlier,
14:48that we will always evaluate
14:51the valuation of the emittance.
14:54If, for example,
14:55the valuation is too high,
14:57we prefer to target
14:59emittance that has a lower valuation
15:01but there is more sustainable growth.
15:04Okay.
15:05Yes, everything goes back to the valuation.
15:07Is it reasonable
15:09compared to,
15:10or is it projected
15:12with such fundamental conditions?