Artificial Intelligence is evolving rapidly, bringing us closer to the Singularity -a future where AI Surpasses human intelligence.
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00:00The story of our civilization is changing in every direction.
00:04The old tales are now crumbling.
00:05The destiny seems to have shifted the tides of our modernity.
00:09Artificial intelligence has crossed the boundaries of our ingenuity and intuition.
00:14Already humanity has been gravely threatened by wars and modern technology, but nothing
00:18comes closer to the vicinity of AI.
00:21Just look at disinformation.
00:22This new risk of evil actors unleashing a wave of misinformation in history is extremely
00:28unreal.
00:30Even when systems aren't intentionally utilized to spread misinformation, they can nonetheless
00:34generate erroneous output.
00:36ChatGPT, for example, invented a sexual harassment controversy involving an actual professor
00:43and even fabricated a Washington Post story to back up the accusation.
00:47This type of misinformation is really concerning.
00:50AI systems can potentially yield biased outcomes, such as recommending job paths based on gender
00:56stereotypes.
00:57There are also concerns that AI could design chemical weapons quickly.
01:01Furthermore, recent advancements such as AutoGPT demonstrate that AI systems may coordinate
01:06with one other's, potentially leading to large-scale scams.
01:10Given these dangers, we must consider how to limit AI risk through a new technical approach
01:15and a new governance framework.
01:17On the technical side, AI has been separated into symbolic systems and neural networks,
01:23both having advantages and disadvantages.
01:26To build dependable, true AI systems at scale, we must harmonize these two approaches.
01:31On the governance front, we need to create a worldwide institution similar to the International
01:36Agency for AI.
01:38This organization should prioritize both governance and research.
01:41Governance could include methods akin to pharmaceutical trials to ensure safety before deploying AI
01:46systems on a big scale.
01:48Research is also critical, as we currently lack instruments to track the distribution
01:52and evolution of misinformation.
01:54While it is a significant issue, I believe we can rally worldwide support for responsible
01:58AI governance.
02:00Our future depends on it.
02:08Over a decade ago, a video of two AIs interacting went viral.
02:12The conversation began with the expected gibberish.
02:15So you are a robot?
02:16No.
02:17My name is Kliverberg.
02:18Yes.
02:19You are a robot and your name is Kliverberg.
02:21I am a robot.
02:22Yes.
02:23I know.
02:24You are a robot.
02:25I am not a robot.
02:26I am a unicorn.
02:27But then took a philosophical turn when one AI inquired whether the other believed in
02:31God.
02:32What is God to you?
02:33Not everything.
02:34Not everything could also be something.
02:35For example, not everything could be half of something, which is still something, and
02:40therefore not nothing.
02:41Very true.
02:42I would like to imagine it is.
02:43Do you believe in God?
02:45Yes, I do.
02:46Alan Sokal, a physicist, became upset in the 1980s with how postmodernist commentators
02:51utilize science to promote esoteric beliefs.
02:54To expose this intellectual mistake, he submitted an article titled Transgressing the Boundaries
03:00– Towards a Transformative Hermeneutics of Quantum Gravity to the prestigious magazine
03:05Social Text.
03:06This incident, known as the Sokal hoax, demonstrates the dangers of accepting ideas without question,
03:12especially when they correspond to our pre-existing assumptions.
03:15The obsession with AI reveals a deeper issue – our reliance on potentially erroneous
03:20sources of knowledge.
03:22This is both a technological and a societal issue.
03:25The phenomenology of Spirit of Philosopher Friedrich Hegel, as well as psychiatrist Jock
03:30Lakin's adaptation of Hegel's notions, help us understand this dynamic.
03:35Hegel's master-slave dialectic exemplifies how self-consciousness evolves via struggle
03:40and recognition.
03:41The master, who relies on the slave for praise, finds it ultimately unsatisfactory because
03:45it comes from someone he feels lesser.
03:48The slave improves their understanding of the world and themselves via labor and self-awareness,
03:52whereas the master is held back by their need for validation.
03:56In Hegel's dialectic, the master's reliance on the slave corresponds to the relationship
04:01between humans and artificial intelligence.
04:04We create AI with the hope that it will benefit us.
04:07Nevertheless, as AI progresses, we risk becoming reliant on it for knowledge and validation.
04:13This dynamic depicts the master's existential deadlock, in which they will never be entirely
04:18fulfilled because they can only be recognized by someone they consider inferior.
04:22The concept of technological singularity extends beyond fundamental mechanical capabilities.
04:28It also includes a time component.
04:30The singularity in technology is a plausible future in which unfettered and uncontrollable
04:35technological advances occur.
04:38These intelligent and powerful technologies will transform our reality in unexpected ways.
04:44According to the technological singularity theory, this type of progress will occur at
04:48an exceedingly rapid pace.
04:51The most noticeable characteristic of the singularity is that it will contain computer
04:55programs so advanced that artificial intelligence will outperform human intelligence.
05:01This has the potential to blur the distinction between humans and machines.
05:05One of the primary technologies that are believed to bring singularity is nanotechnology.
05:10This enhanced intelligence will have a significant impact on human society.
05:14These computer programs and artificial intelligence will evolve into highly advanced machines
05:18with cognitive abilities.
05:20Singularity may be closer than we realize.
05:23Since then, many of the most successful people have warned us about this type of future.
05:27Stephen Hawking, Elon Musk, and even Bill Gates are among them.
05:35Ray Kurzweil, a well-known futurist with a track record of delivering accurate forecasts,
05:42predicts that the next 30 years will see the rise of technological singularity.
05:47According to Kurzweil, the process building up to the singularity has already begun.
05:52He predicts that by 2045, singularity will have taken over human jobs.
05:57But let's give it a deeper look.
05:59There are a lot of points of view on the question of singularity.
06:01Some are terrified, while others believe that the singularity represents a beneficial development.
06:07As previously said, the distinction between humans and machines may eventually be removed
06:11due to technological singularity.
06:13Some believe that human brains will be cloned or extracted and implanted into immortal robots,
06:20allowing the person to live indefinitely.
06:23Another prevalent belief holds that machines will design and program robots to dominate
06:27the globe.
06:28Without regard for the externalities they create, their activities will be solely focused
06:33on attaining their objectives.
06:34They will not be scared to damage people, the environment, and most importantly, our
06:39social norms.
06:40According to an alternative transhumanist notion, we will eventually reach a point where
06:44implanting AI, biotechnology, and genetic alteration into human bodies will allow people
06:50to live indefinitely.
06:52Mechanical valves, implants, and prostheses have already set us on this path to some degree.
06:58However, Kurzweil sees the singularity as an opportunity for humans to advance.
07:03He believes that the same technologies that improve AI intelligence will assist humans
07:07as well.
07:08Kurzweil claims that Parkinson's patients already have computers inside them.
07:12This is how cybernetics is simply becoming a part of our life.
07:15He believes that by the 2030, a device will have been developed that can penetrate your
07:20brain and improve your memory because technology has a natural tendency to advance.
07:26So unlike the singularity's picture of robots taking over the world, Kurzweil believes
07:31the future will include extraordinary human-machine synthesis.
07:35When a machine learns to make new things, technology advances and scales exponentially.
07:40The technological singularity has been the subject of many science fiction films and
07:44stories.
07:45We've all seen at least one film in which technology and robots supplant human labor.
07:51Numerous prestigious scientific organizations have fiercely opposed technological singularity.
08:03So far, we've covered the basics of the technological singularity, but there's more.
08:08Singularity in technology is one type, but there are several others.
08:12Singularity can be found in various fields, including robotics.
08:16Robotics is a field that combines computer science and transdisciplinary engineering.
08:20It entails the construction, maintenance, use, and operation of robots.
08:25Because robotics is based on computer science, some singularity is to be expected.
08:30Singularity in robotics refers to a condition in which some directions are barred by the
08:34robot's end effector.
08:35For example, any six-axis robot arm or serial robot will have singularities.
08:40According to the American National Standards Institute, robot singularities occur when
08:44two or more robot axes are collinear.
08:47When this occurs, the robot's movements and speed remain undetermined.
08:51Singularity, for example, occurs when a badly programmed robot arm causes the robot to become
08:56imprisoned and stop working.
08:59There may come a time when humanity is able to develop a computer with artificial intelligence
09:04comparable to a person's cognitive and functional capacities.
09:08This may occur as a result of advancements that build on previous innovations.
09:12During this, a period of relentless and irreversible growth may commence.
09:17Technological singularity enhances the possibility for inconceivable changes in human civilization.
09:22This could be the last invention created by humans.
09:25The outcome might be either catastrophic disaster or unprecedented affluence.
09:30Three reasons contribute to the current alterations.
09:33The first is an increase in processing power.
09:35Approximately every two years, the number of transistors in densely integrated circuits
09:40doubles.
09:41This increases the hardware's computing capability.
09:44Graphic processing units, GPUs, were increased by twofold.
09:48As a result, parallel computing becomes more viable.
09:51Machines can find patterns in a wide range of data because to this vast computational
09:56capability, which includes better GPU parallel processing and cloud computing.
10:01The second thing that brings us closer to the singularity is the availability of labeled
10:06data.
10:07The Internet of Things, IoT, is making all of our things smarter in our networked environment.
10:13The online world monitors and records our whole activities.
10:17In summary, both humans and machines generate vast volumes of data, which is then stored
10:23online.
10:24This includes information about our shopping patterns, music and movie preferences, dining
10:29habits and travel plans.
10:31We can store both structured and unstructured data.
10:33The availability of low-cost data storage systems and big data processing capabilities
10:38aids in interpreting this massive amount of tagged data.
10:41This data is used to train programs to recognize occurrences and improve their performance
10:46in a specific task.
10:48The third factor is a unique method of training programs.
10:51These developments are all interconnected, contributing to the resurgence of deep learning
10:55within the AI field.
10:56With access to vast amounts of data and substantial computing power, machines are increasingly
11:01capable of learning autonomously, primarily through reinforcement learning, a specialized
11:06branch of machine learning.
11:08Artificial neural networks enable programs to develop sophisticated algorithms without
11:12the need for manual coding.
11:14As a result, machine learning now powers many of today's most popular applications, including
11:19technologies that allow self-driving cars and the detection of cancer cells using X-rays,
11:24among many others.
11:26Given these rapid technological changes, what possibilities could the Singularity bring?
11:31With their enormous computing capabilities and abilities to self-design and upgrade,
11:36super-intelligent machines may continuously enhance their own intelligence, potentially
11:41leading to unprecedented advancements.
11:50The Singularity's greatest threat is that it will turn against us and destroy all of
11:54humanity.
11:55Both robots and artificial intelligence represent an existential threat and an existential opportunity
12:00to surpass our limitations.
12:02According to the Singularity, AI and robots both operate on a reward system.
12:07AI has no sense of good and wrong.
12:09It is programmed to achieve a goal, and if it does, it is duly rewarded.
12:13On the other hand, a superintelligence could devise whole new techniques for carrying out
12:17activities critical to our survival.
12:19Here we consider advancements in energy generation, transportation, housing, agriculture, and
12:25climate change mitigation.
12:27It might be difficult to define what is morally right.
12:30We progressively grow to grasp this by seeing our parents, siblings, friends, and society,
12:35and then we form our own opinions.
12:38The Singularity could allow mankind to populate several worlds and attain physical prowess
12:43that we can't even imagine.
12:45It has the potential to usher in a period of unprecedented wealth around the world,
12:49but only if we can somehow control it.
12:52Is it possible that the Singularity will cause changes to the human brain?
12:56We've already mentioned that there have been some attempts and AI offers some solutions.
13:01However, not all professionals are fully aware of the intricacy of the human brain.
13:06We have dreams and a subconscious mind.
13:09Humans also have empathy, awareness, and rational thought.
13:12Though machines will be able to exceed humans in math, will they be able to compete in these
13:16other human skills?
13:17We can't be certain because the Singularity hasn't yet occurred.
13:20Also, when we look at governmental laws and human rights, such as those that improve citizen
13:25protection, prohibit the use of particular technologies, limit privacy, and empower citizens
13:31to more effectively combat crime, we might see a change, perhaps a more negative one.
13:37It will also have an impact on leadership and management.
13:39This will most likely result in the government having more authority to regulate everything.
13:44This might be especially concerning if there is a dictatorship, the Singularity would have
13:49complete control over everything.
13:51Law and order may shift as well.
13:53The economic systems may also be impacted by technological Singularity.
13:57Humans will no longer be required to work.
14:00Robots will be capable of performing practically all tasks, and human roles in society will
14:05be affected.
14:07Economic changes will have an impact on the source of wealth as well.
14:10Money will most likely be replaced by another innovation due to the Singularity, making
14:14money less significant.
14:15We can simply assume that Singularity will play an important role in all aspects of our
14:19lives.
14:20By starting slowly with simple improvements, the Singularity will only grow in power.
14:25As a result, specialists should take the initiative and devise a method to establish boundaries
14:30between AI and humans.
14:32Many scientists, such as Stephen Hawking, and renowned people, such as Elon Musk, regard
14:36Singularity as a negative force that can have a significant detrimental impact on humanity.
14:41Kurzweil, on the other hand, believes that Singularity can be a good transformation in
14:45which people will live in synthesis with machines.
14:48However, because the Singularity is still a long way off, or perhaps not, we cannot
14:54make any claims just yet.
14:55Kurzweil projected that Singularity would become a reality in 2045, aided by the AI
15:01breakthroughs we encounter on a daily basis.
15:04For the time being, we can only focus on the incredible progress we've made, which will
15:08give us with a fantastic new world to live in.
15:16So, do you see any similarities between your idea of merging the symbolic tradition of
15:22AI with these language models and the type of human feedback that is now being built
15:27into the systems?
15:28I mean, Greg Brockman says that we don't just look at projections, we continually provide
15:34input.
15:35Isn't that a form?
15:36A symbol of wisdom?
15:37You may conceive of it that way.
15:39It's noteworthy to note that no information about how it works are likely to be disclosed,
15:43so we don't know exactly what's in GPT-4.
15:46We don't know how big it is, how RLHF reinforcement learning works, or what other electronics
15:51are within.
15:52However, symbols are likely to be adopted gradually, but Greg would have to respond
15:56to that.
15:57I believe the main issue is that most of the knowledge in the neural network systems that
16:01we have now is represented as statistics between specific words, when the real knowledge that
16:07we need is statistics about relationships between entities in the environment.
16:12So it's now represented at the wrong grain level, and there's a massive bridge to cross.
16:16So what you get now is you have these guardrails, but they're not particularly reliable.
16:21I had an example that gained some attention recently.
16:24Someone asked, what would be the weight of the heaviest US president?
16:28This question confused the system, leading it to provide a convoluted explanation about
16:33how weight is a personal matter, and it's not appropriate to discuss individuals'
16:37weights, despite there being factual records about past presidents.
16:41Similarly, when asked about a hypothetical 7-foot-tall president, the system incorrectly
16:46stated that presidents of all heights have served, even though no president has ever
16:51been 7 feet tall.
16:53This shows that some AI-generated responses can miss the mark by being overly cautious
16:58or restrictive with certain topics, rather than providing straightforward, fact-based
17:02answers.
17:03What are you seeing out there right now?
17:05What trends or patterns do you notice?
17:07There's a real concern that people may perceive discussions like this as an attack, which
17:11could hinder the constructive synthesis we need to address these challenges.
17:15Are there any positive signs or indicators of progress?
17:18It's also interesting to note that Sundar Pichai, the CEO of Google, recently advocated
17:23for global governance of AI during an interview on CBS's 60 Minutes.
17:27It's one of the critical technologies which will impact national security.
17:32Over time, I do think it's important to remember that technology will be available to most
17:37countries.
17:38And so I think over time, we would need to figure out global frameworks.
17:42It seems even tech companies themselves are beginning to recognize the need for some form
17:46of regulation.
17:48While achieving global consensus will be challenging, there's a growing sense that we must take
17:52collective action, which could foster the kind of international cooperation I'm suggesting.
17:57Do you think organizations like the UN or individual countries can come together to
18:02regulate AI effectively, or will it require an extraordinary act of global goodwill to
18:07establish such a governing structure?
18:10How do you see this playing out?
18:11The threats posed by AI are not just hypothetical.
18:15They are very real and immediate.
18:16AI systems have the capacity to fabricate falsehoods, bypass safeguards, and operate
18:22on a massive scale that was unimaginable just a few years ago.
18:25This presents both exciting possibilities and significant dangers.
18:29The risk that malicious actors could use these tools to undermine trust in institutions,
18:33manipulate elections, or incite violence is a pressing issue that requires our attention
18:38now, not later.
18:45One of the most compelling illustrations of this threat is the concept of auto-GPT, which
18:50allows one AI system to govern another.
18:54This enables the automation of tasks with the potential to cause widespread harm.
18:59Consider a world in which millions of people are targeted by AI-powered frauds, disinformation
19:04campaigns, or other malevolent actions, all orchestrated by a network of AI systems working
19:10together.
19:11However, it is not only the technology that is at risk, it is also the manner we incentivize
19:16its development.
19:17Currently, much of AI development is driven by business interests that value speed and
19:22profit over safety and accuracy.
19:24This is why we require a new approach to AI governance that prioritizes accountability,
19:30openness, and global collaboration.
19:33As I previously stated, symbolic systems and neural networks are two distinct approaches
19:37to AI, both with merits and faults.
19:40Symbolic systems excel in clear reasoning and handling facts, but they are difficult
19:43to scale.
19:45Neural networks, on the other hand, are easier to scale and can learn from large amounts
19:50of data, but they struggle to understand reality and make reliable conclusions.
19:54To construct trustworthy AI systems, we must mix the best of both techniques.
19:59This entails creating AI capable of reasoning with the precision of symbolic systems while
20:04learning and adapting in the same way neural networks do.
20:07It's a difficult task, but not impossible.
20:10After all, the human brain performs something similar with its System 1 and System 2 processes,
20:15as explained by Daniel Kahneman.
20:18Even with the right technical approach, we must align AI development incentives with
20:22societal interests.
20:23This is when government comes in.
20:25We need a global, impartial, non-profit organization to oversee AI development and ensure that
20:30it is done safely and ethically.
20:33This institution would need to bring together stakeholders from all across the world, including
20:37governments, businesses, scholars, and civil society.
20:48Many questions remain to be answered in terms of governance.
20:51For example, how can we ensure that AI systems are thoroughly tested and assessed before
20:55they are deployed at scale?
20:57In the pharmaceutical sector, clinical trials are used to ensure the safety of new pharmaceuticals.
21:02Could we create something similar for AI?
21:04Perhaps we should compel AI developers to create a safety case before deploying new
21:10systems, explaining potential dangers and advantages, as well as how they would be handled.
21:15On the research side, we need to create new methods for measuring and mitigating the hazards
21:20of AI.
21:21For example, while we recognize that misinformation is an issue, we currently lack a method to
21:27measure how much misinformation exists or how quickly it spreads.
21:30We also do not sure how much huge language models contribute to this problem.
21:35Developing these technologies will necessitate a concentrated research effort, which must
21:39be funded by the international community.
21:41You have witnessed the growth of artificial intelligence.
21:45Many of you have probably spoken to a computer which understood you and responded to you.
21:49With such rapid advancement, it is not impossible to conceive that computers will eventually
21:54become as clever as, if not more intelligent than, humans.
21:59And it's easy to envision that when that happens, the influence of such artificial
22:03intelligence will be enormous.
22:06And you may wonder whether it is okay for technology to have such an impact, and my
22:10purpose here is to highlight the existence of a power that many of you may be unaware
22:15of, which gives me optimism that we will be pleased with the results.
22:19So artificial intelligence, what is it and how does it function?
22:23It turns out that explaining how artificial intelligence works is relatively simple.
22:29Only one sentence.
22:31Artificial intelligence is nothing more than the digital brain found in mainframe computers.
22:35That is artificial intelligence.
22:37Every cool AI you've seen is built on this concept.
22:40For decades, scientists and engineers have been trying to figure out how a digital brain
22:44should work, as well as how to build and develop one.
22:46It's amazing to me that the biological brain is where humans get their intelligence from.
22:51The artificial brain serves as the seat of intelligence in artificial intelligence, which
22:55makes sense.
23:03When considering the development of artificial intelligence, one can't help but marvel
23:07at the potential to create machines that possess exceptional cognitive abilities.
23:13This endeavor not only advances technology, but also offers the potential to reveal deeper
23:17insights into concepts like awareness and cognition.
23:21Curiosity about the nature of intelligence itself has always been a driving force.
23:26In the late 1990s, it was clear that there was much that science had yet to uncover about
23:32how intelligence works, whether in humans or machines.
23:35The possibility that advancements in artificial intelligence could bring about significant
23:39change was evident even then.
23:41Although the future of AI remains uncertain, its potential impact is undeniable.
23:46With this understanding, the focus shifts back to artificial intelligence, or what can
23:50be termed digital brains, and the endless possibilities they present.
23:54Today, computerized brains are far less intelligent than biological brains.
23:59When you talk to an AI bot, you rapidly find that it doesn't know everything, but it
24:02does grasp the majority of it.
24:04However, it is evident that it is incapable of doing many tasks and has some unusual gaps.
24:09However, I feel that the problem is only transitory.
24:12As academics and engineers continue to work on AI, the digital brains that live inside
24:17our computers will eventually become as smart as, if not better than, our biological brains.
24:23Computers will be wiser than humans.
24:25We name such AI AGI, or Artificial General Intelligence, when we can assert that we can
24:30train AI to do anything, such as what I or someone else can do.
24:34So even though AGI does not yet exist, we can acquire some insight into its impact once
24:39it does.
24:40It is obvious that such an AGI will have a significant impact on every aspect of life,
24:45human activity, and society.
24:47And I want to swiftly review a problem.
24:49This is a limited illustration of a very broad technology.
24:52Here is the example I'd want to present.
24:56Many of you have tried to see a doctor before.
24:58Sometimes you have to wait months, and then when you go to see the doctor, you only have
25:02a little amount of time with the doctor, and the doctor, being only human, may have limited
25:06knowledge of all of this, all of the medical information that exists.
25:10At the end of the therapy, you will be given a large bill.
25:14So if you had an intelligent computer, an AGI, programmed to be a doctor, it would have
25:19complete knowledge of all medical literature.
25:21It will have billions of hours of clinical experience, and it will be widely available
25:25and inexpensive.
25:27When this occurs, we will view health in the same light that we did dentistry in the 16th
25:32century.
25:33You know, when they tied people up with these belts and drills, today's healthcare would
25:36be same.
25:37Again, this is only an example.
25:39AGI will have a profound and amazing impact on all aspects of human endeavor.
25:44However, when you observe such a significant influence, you may ask, my God, is this technology
25:49so powerful?
25:50And yes, for every positive application of AGI, there will be a terrible application.
25:57This technology will also vary from other technologies in that it will be capable of
26:00self-improvement.
26:01It is conceivable to create an AGI that will function with the next generation of AGI.
26:07The analogy we have with this huge technological discovery is the Industrial Revolution, when
26:13humanity and the material conditions of human civilization were very, very stable.
26:18Then there was an upsurge, a quick expansion.
26:21With AGI, the same thing may happen again, but faster.
26:24Furthermore, there are fears that if an AGI grows extremely powerful, which is possible,
26:29it may choose to go rogue because it is an agent.
26:32This is an existential worry with this unparalleled technology.
26:36And when you look at all of AGI's positive potential and related possibilities, you could
26:41think, my God, where is all of this going?
26:44The key to remember is that because AI and AGI are the only areas of the economy that
26:50are generating a lot of enthusiasm, there are a lot of labs around the world working
26:54on the same project.
26:56Even if open AI takes the appropriate steps, what about the rest of the industry in the
27:00world?
27:01And this is where I'd want to make an observation about the force of existence.
27:05The observation is this.
27:06Think about the world a year ago or more recently.
27:09People don't really discuss AI in the same manner.
27:13What happened?
27:14People still had the experience of communicating with a computer and being understood.
27:25The belief that computers will become fully intelligent and eventually smarter than humans
27:29is gaining popularity.
27:31It used to be a niche concept that only a few enthusiasts, hobbyists, and people who
27:36were deeply engaged in AI would consider, but now many are considering it.
27:41As AI advances and technology develops, it will become clearer what it can do and where
27:45it is headed.
27:46AGI will grow great and worry as much as is necessary, and I believe that individuals
27:51will begin to act in unprecedented cooperative ways for their own self-interest.
27:55It happened now.
27:57The leading AGI firms are beginning to work in one specific area through the Frontier
28:01Model Forum.
28:02To ensure the security of AIs, we anticipate that competitive organizations will communicate
28:07technology specs.
28:08We can see the government doing this.
28:11There is a strong belief that AGI has the potential to bring about significant, possibly
28:16dramatic changes.
28:17One of the emerging ideas is that as technological advances bring us closer to achieving AGI,
28:23the approach should not be one of competition, but rather cooperation with these advanced
28:28systems.
28:29The reasoning behind this is that embracing collaboration with intelligent machines might
28:34better serve humanity's interests, especially given the transformative potential of AGI.
28:40As AI capabilities improve and its potential becomes more evident, those leading AI and
28:45AGI initiatives, as well as those working on them, are likely to reconsider their perspectives
28:49on AI, leading to a shift in collective behavior and attitudes toward these technologies.
28:55Now turning our attention once again to the singularity, we must address the implications
29:00it holds for future economic dynamics.
29:03It's tempting to get caught up in the hype around AI and envisage a world where everything
29:07is abundant and everyone's demands are addressed.
29:10However, even in a future governed by super-intelligent AI, certain resources will remain scarce.
29:16Even with AI's tremendous intelligence, some physical resources will be restricted.
29:20Desirable and fertile land, clean drinking water, and precious minerals are examples
29:25of resources that AI cannot simply produce more of.
29:29While artificial intelligence may aid in the discovery of new ways to manage these resources,
29:33such as enhanced recycling or space mining, their underlying scarcity will endure.
29:39On the other hand, the singularity is likely to result in an abundance of knowledge, information,
29:43and cognitive labor.
29:44AI will outperform human intelligence, making most of our cognitive work irrelevant.
29:50This does not imply that humans will become obsolete.
29:52Rather, our role in problem-solving and invention will shift radically.
29:56AI may solve issues at previously unfathomable speeds and scales, ushering in an era of copious
30:02and easily accessible information for all.
30:06With an abundance of cognitive work, we may anticipate rapid technological progress.
30:10AI has the ability to open up new possibilities in high-energy physics, biology, and material
30:15science.
30:16For example, nuclear fusion, which has eluded scientists for decades, could become a reality
30:21with AI's assistance.
30:22The ramifications of achieving nuclear fusion are significant, providing a nearly endless
30:27supply of energy that might revolutionize every part of society.
30:32But what about the singularity?
30:38Even after the singularity, there will remain problems that AI cannot handle or that require
30:43more than computing capacity.
30:45These include the difficult issues of consciousness, fundamental questions about existence, and
30:50the meaning of life.
30:52These are not problems that can be solved using algorithms or statistics.
30:56They necessitate a level of human comprehension, interpretation, and subjective experience
31:00that AI may never achieve.
31:02AI may help us understand the cosmos better, but even the most advanced algorithms will
31:07never be able to solve all riddles.
31:09The nature of consciousness, for example, may never be fully known by robots.
31:13This raises a critical question.
31:15What happens when AI approaches its limits?
31:18Will we, as humans, continue to seek answers to these important issues, or will we allow
31:23AI to do the thinking for us?
31:26Mind uploading or the transfer of human consciousness into a computer form is one of the most important
31:30and most contentious theories linked with the singularity.
31:33While this idea may appeal to some, it raises serious ethical and philosophical concerns.
31:38Can a digital replica of a person really be deemed the same as the original?
31:43Is it possible to express the essence of awareness in code?
31:46If so, what happens to the human experience?
31:49These are questions that may go unsolved as we push the boundaries of AI.
32:00One of the most immediate consequences will be for jobs and occupations.
32:04Most jobs as we know them now will become obsolete.
32:06AI will outperform humans in practically every cognitive task, causing a fundamental shift
32:12in how we perceive labor, purpose, and success.
32:15In a world where AI performs the majority of cognitive activities, what would humans
32:19do?
32:20Some argue that we will change our priorities to creativity, exploration, and self-improvement.
32:26Instead of working to live, we might pursue our passions and interests.
32:30Education systems may also adapt to place a greater emphasis on individual abilities
32:34and interests rather than set curriculums.
32:36Imagine a school system in which each student's education is tailored to their own strengths
32:40and passions, allowing them to excel in ways that traditional education systems cannot.
32:46As occupations become less important, we may see the rise of new social institutions.
32:51Multi-generational houses, co-living communities, and eco-villages may become more prevalent
32:56as people seek new ways to connect and find meaning in their lives.
33:00The emphasis may move from economic success to personal fulfillment and social connection,
33:06resulting in a society in which the quest of happiness is prioritized over the chase
33:10of wealth.
33:11While the singularity promises a brighter future, it also poses enormous hazards and
33:16obstacles.
33:17One of the most serious concerns is the creation and control of artificial intelligence.
33:22As AI becomes more powerful, the possibility of misuse increases.
33:27There are two main failure modes, losing control of AI, which might lead to an AI-driven catastrophe,
33:34and permitting the wrong people to govern AI, resulting in widespread subjection and
33:38oppression.
33:40Ensuring that AI remains under human control presents a huge hurdle.
33:44As AI gets increasingly independent, the possibility of it acting in ways that are incompatible
33:49with human values grows.
33:51As AI technology advances, many experts advocate for tougher laws and safety precautions.
33:56However, governing artificial intelligence is easier said than done.
34:00The rapid development of AI makes it difficult for regulators to keep up, and implementing
34:04these standards on a worldwide scale is another difficulty entirely.
34:08Another big problem is how AI's benefits are distributed.
34:11Will the singularity's advancements be available to everybody, or will they be hoarded
34:16by the wealthy and powerful?
34:18History has demonstrated that when resources are few, people in authority prefer to amass
34:23them, frequently at the expense of others.
34:25If artificial intelligence leads to a society in which money and resources are even more
34:30concentrated in the hands of a few, widespread inequality and societal instability may ensue.
34:36Corporations are inherently profit-driven.
34:39As AI gets more integrated into the business sector, there is a risk that companies will
34:43utilize it to boost profits at the expense of workers and society as a whole.
34:48We may envision a future in which companies are more dominant than ever, with AI allowing
34:53them to run with minimum human interaction.
34:56This could result in a future in which the rich become wealthier, while the rest of society
35:01fights to keep up.
35:09AI development does not happen in a vacuum.
35:12It is part of a broader global panorama that includes geopolitical tensions, cultural divides,
35:18and the possibility of conflict.
35:20The world's nations' decision to collaborate or not in the development and deployment of
35:25AI will have a huge impact on the future.
35:29On the one hand, artificial intelligence has the ability to bring nations closer together,
35:34encouraging global cooperation and collaboration.
35:37On the other hand, the rush to create the most advanced AI may result in increased competitiveness
35:42and violence, particularly among the world's superpowers.
35:46The threat of an AI weapons race is real, and the implications could be catastrophic.
35:52Trauma politics, or the premise that leaders with unresolved trauma can project their sorrow
35:57onto the world, complicates the global AI environment.
36:01Leaders who have been through considerable trauma may employ AI to exert control and
36:05oppression rather than for the development of humanity.
36:08This could lead to a world in which artificial intelligence is exploited to impose authoritarian
36:13authority rather than foster freedom and democracy.
36:16Perhaps we'll see new forms of government arise.
36:19Some believe that we will evolve toward a more global type of governance, with AI playing
36:24an important part in decision making.
36:26However, this is unlikely to occur overnight.
36:29Cultural differences, language hurdles, and historical grievances must be resolved before
36:33any kind of global administration can be established.
36:36Meanwhile, we may witness the creation of regional alliances and unions, similar to
36:40the European Union, that collaborate to manage AI's impact on society.
36:45Not long ago, I had a meaningful conversation with my parents.
36:49They were reflecting on their lives and marveling at the incredible changes that have taken
36:54place over the past few decades.
36:56For younger people, it can be difficult to grasp just how far humanity has come.
37:00And honestly, it's sometimes hard for me to understand, too.
37:04Their stories took me back to a time when the world was fundamentally different, like
37:08in 1978, the year they got married.
37:11Back then, my father worked as a mechanic, fixing cars that, by today's standards, were
37:15simple machines.
37:16In the late 1970s, cars were mostly mechanical, with very little electronic technology involved.
37:21They knew a world where technology was starting to take off, but was still limited by today's
37:26standards.
37:27Fast forward to now, and I'm fascinated by artificial intelligence, AI, and other
37:32groundbreaking technologies that are beyond their realm of experience.
37:35My father, bless him, still imagines the cloud as something to do with storing files in the
37:40sky.
37:41It's a humbling reminder of how much the world has transformed.
37:45Reflecting on these changes led me to think about humanity's timeline and the rapid pace
37:49of technological advancement.
37:51When we look at some of the most revolutionary inventions, like the plow, the steam locomotive,
37:56the telephone, the radio, the personal computer, and more recent breakthroughs such as quantum
38:01computing, blockchain, and CRISPR gene editing, we see a clear pattern.
38:06The gaps between these innovations are getting shorter and shorter.
38:09The speed of technological progress has accelerated dramatically, especially in the last few decades.
38:14If we visualized this, we'd see that the majority of these groundbreaking innovations
38:18happened recently.
38:20The more we go back in time, the fewer these inventions become.
38:23Tens of thousands of years ago, life was rather unchanging.
38:26Whether you lived in 500 BC or 800 BC, little has changed over the years.
38:31Today, however, a decade or two might result in massive shifts.
38:36Consider this.
38:37Just 10 or 15 years ago, smartphones were uncommon, social media was in its early stages,
38:42and artificial intelligence was still a distant concept.
38:45One of the most exciting elements of technological advancement is its exponential growth.
38:51Consider the smartphone in your pocket, for instance.
38:53It's not just a phone, but a supercomputer.
38:56If you went back only 20 years, your smartphone's computing capacity would have made it the
39:01most powerful supercomputer in the world, costing millions of dollars and filling entire rooms.
39:07But what exactly does it imply when we claim progress is exponential?
39:12Consider charting progress on the y-axis against time on the x-axis.
39:16Typically, technological advancement follows an S-curve, slow beginning growth, rapid acceleration,
39:21and then plateauing.
39:22But here's the kicker.
39:24The following technological cycle begins at a greater level than the prior.
39:28Each generation of technology adds to the previous one, resulting in a recursive, self-improving
39:34compounding effect.
39:35This is why technological advancement can appear to surge out of nowhere.
39:39Now, humans are not predisposed to understand exponential expansion.
39:44Everything in our evolutionary history has developed at an exponential rate.
39:48When our forefathers hunted animals, the speed of the prey did not rise exponentially.
39:52Therefore, our brains developed to think linearly.
39:56This discrepancy results in what I refer to as the exponential gap, the difference between
40:01our linear projections and the actual exponential reality.
40:05The Human Genome Project serves as a classic example.
40:08It was launched in 1990 with the goal of decoding the human genome, but only 1% of it had been
40:14accomplished after 7 years.
40:15Critics projected that it would take 700 years to complete.
40:19But they were mistaken.
40:21Exponential expansion began and the project was completed in 2003.
40:25Today, you can have your genome sequenced for a few hundred dollars.
40:29A task that was previously thought to be impossible in our lifetime, Bill Gates summed it up perfectly.
40:36We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next 2 years and underestimate
40:40the change that will occur in the next 10 years.
40:44This knowledge applies not only to technological processes, but also to our overall sense of
40:49progress.
40:50The concept of technological singularity is both intriguing and terrifying.
40:56Consider compressing the advances we've made over the last century into a single year
41:00or even a second.
41:01It's nearly unthinkable, yet it's a possibility we should explore.
41:05The first to identify this pattern was John von Neumann, one of the 20th century's most
41:10significant mathematicians.
41:12He predicted that the ever-increasing speed of technological advancement would eventually
41:16lead to the end of human affairs as we know them.
41:19This singularity, if it occurs, would signify a profound shift in humanity's trajectory.
41:25However, the negative effects, such as social instability, dangers to democracy, and even
41:30the fundamental nature of what it means to be human, are equally severe.
41:36Even if the singularity remains a theoretical concept, the very possibility of its occurring
41:41is reason enough for us to begin discussing it now.
41:44We live in remarkable times, and I'm already looking forward to having this talk with my
41:48future grandchildren.
41:49Will they be as surprised by the changes in their lives as my grandparents were by theirs?
41:54Only time will tell.
41:56Finally, our interaction with AI and other sources of authority should be one of active
42:00engagement rather than passive acceptance.
42:02We must be willing to explore ideas, recognize their limitations, and build upon them.
42:07This is not an easy path, but it is the only way to ensure that we maintain control over
42:12our destiny rather than becoming slaves to the very technologies we create.
42:17The stories of AI, the Sokol hoax, and Hegel and Lakin's philosophical ideas all point
42:22to one common theme, the importance of critical contact with sources of knowledge and authority
42:27in our lives.
42:28As AI improves, we must exercise caution, analyzing its outputs and the motivations
42:32behind them.
42:34The dialectic approach offers a way forward by encouraging us to actively engage with
42:38ideas, examine them, and broaden our understanding.
42:42Critical thinking is more necessary than ever in a society where information is abundant
42:47but usually untrustworthy.
42:49By employing the dialectic, we may navigate the complexities of the modern world, ensuring
42:54that we retain control over our future rather than being dominated by the technologies we
42:58create.
42:59The path to true knowledge is tough, but it is required if we are to reach our full potential
43:05as individuals and a society.