Balancing Act: Modi's Strategic Diplomacy Between Russia and Ukraine – Insights from Burzine Waghmar
In this exclusive interview with Burzine Waghmar from SOAS South Asia Institute, University of London, we delve into the significance of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's recent diplomatic trip to Russia and Ukraine. Discover how Modi has skillfully navigated the complex geopolitical landscape, maintaining a delicate balance between two major global powers. Explore what this means for India's role on the world stage and its potential as a global peace maker. Gain expert insights into the broader implications for international relations and the future of global diplomacy.
#ModiDiplomacy #RussiaUkraine #GlobalPeace #IndianForeignPolicy #BurzineWaghmar #SOASInstitute #Geopolitics #InternationalRelations #IndiaOnTheWorldStage #DiplomaticBalance
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#ModiDiplomacy #RussiaUkraine #GlobalPeace #IndianForeignPolicy #BurzineWaghmar #SOASInstitute #Geopolitics #InternationalRelations #IndiaOnTheWorldStage #DiplomaticBalance
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00:00The West understands this, that India cannot overnight wean itself away.
00:04Similarly, India has not condemned the Ukraine invasion outright
00:08in this forlorn hope of harking back to some Indo-Soviet honeymoon period.
00:13Maybe the Prime Minister would rub US in the wrong way
00:16when such a big war is going on.
00:18He looked quite emotional with Zelensky.
00:22The West understands that India has had a very strong relationship with the Soviet Union.
00:28It was a message to the West that India is not Putin's puppet.
00:33That we can do what we want and we will meet who we want and when we want.
00:39For example, coming from my own field of work, Iranian studies primarily.
00:43Washington and Tehran are at loggerheads since 1979,
00:46but India has had a very stable relationship with Iran
00:51as one of the few West Asian partners and as a Muslim Republic.
00:55And India has, of course, had to accede to the sanctions which were imposed up to 2006.
01:01It fell into place, okay.
01:02But at the same time, India did not dial down its relationship with Tehran.
01:06That it is just one person who can broker a deal and can end the war.
01:12Hello and welcome.
01:13You're watching One India.
01:14My name is Nageen Singh.
01:16Today, we are joined by Burzin Waghmar, SOS South Asia Institute, University of London.
01:22And we are going to discuss the trip that PM Modi made to Russia, to Ukraine,
01:30and what it means for India and for the rest of world.
01:34Thank you so much, Mr. Waghmar, to connect with us.
01:37The first question that I want to ask you,
01:40that how does the world views what PM Modi did in the last few weeks?
01:46He traveled to meet Putin. He also traveled to Ukraine to meet Zelensky.
01:52Now, both these meeting together, how would the world see it?
01:55When you say the world, primarily you mean how the West sees it,
01:59who have become increasingly India's allies and not so much allies,
02:03but actually partners, economic and political and defense partners,
02:09with India joining the Quad in recent years, as you know.
02:15Primarily, India enjoys an expansive set of multivalent relationships with several countries.
02:22Now, inevitably in so doing, whether in the past or in the present,
02:27India ends up upsetting some and pleasing others.
02:31And there's no getting around that in foreign policy, which is a common bane of all countries.
02:36So India is not an exception to it.
02:38What West and Washington does understand, and primarily Indians don't understand this,
02:45but Washington does appreciate, even if they don't say so publicly,
02:49but privately, that India cannot overnight wean itself away from Russian supplies of defense equipment,
02:57on which it has depended for more than a quarter of a century.
03:00It is happening as we speak. And since 2018,
03:04you will notice that India's defense imports, for the first time since 2018,
03:11dipped below 50% from Moscow as its principal supplier.
03:16It has expanded into not just indigenous equipment ramping up with Maindra Aerospace and others,
03:25but also with purchases from the French, the Rafale jets, as you recently know,
03:29and from Washington and others in the West, and Israel, of course.
03:34So that is happening. But be that as it may,
03:37the West understands this, that India cannot overnight wean itself away.
03:41And it also understands, and it does give India wide berth and breathing space because of the China factor.
03:48And Washington has been primarily sympathetic about it,
03:52and has overlooked aspects when it has criticized others, but not criticized India as such.
04:01So that must be seen in one context.
04:03And also Modi's first trip upon assumption of office after elections was to Moscow.
04:09And you could say that was also largely symbolic to assure that Moscow and New Delhi are on the same page.
04:16And of course, it was a boost to Putin's PR,
04:18because even as Mr. Modi landed in Moscow, the NATO summit was ongoing where Ukraine was condemned.
04:26And that may be so. And India was, as I said, it shows, it demonstrates,
04:31it maintains an expansive set of relationships which may seem conflicting or contradictory to others, but not to India.
04:39Mr. Modi was in Moscow in July. Come August 23rd, he's in Kiev.
04:44Now, that may seem a vote to face to some, but in the Indian context of things, at least to me as a historian,
04:50it doesn't seem so, because India does behave like this, which may be considered ambivalent, perplexing or irritating.
04:58I'll just one example to talk about recent history of India's actions when the Kuwait crisis took place in August 1919.
05:07Foreign Minister Gujarat was the only one to meet Saddam Hussein and was given a one to one meeting.
05:12And India's immediate interests were in order to get Indian expatriates out of Kuwait,
05:18in a rule running into their houses. And of course, the Kuwaitis and the other GCC members were rather upset that Gujarat not only made it to Baghdad,
05:28but were seen very warmly hugging and conversing with Saddam Hussein, who was condemned by all in the West.
05:36And of course, in the Arab world, it's a slightly different situation.
05:38But you get my point that India took a bold move at that time and a rather audacious move to send a foreign minister.
05:44But it had its primary interests in mind at that time.
05:48And of course, India did not join the Coalition for the Gulf War in February, January, February 1912.
05:54Similarly, India has not condemned the Ukraine invasion outright.
05:58But at the same time, it has also not three months ago, you know, OK, the final peace communique,
06:06which was inked in Switzerland by President Zelensky and others on the Ukraine peace summit.
06:11Of course, Deputy National Security Advisor Pawan Kapoor was sent and delegation was sent from India.
06:16But that didn't add up too much. And the world would have wanted to see India take a more robust stance on it.
06:22But as I mentioned to you, Washington and London understand because of not pushing India at the same time,
06:30seeing that Putin has not pushed too much into the Chinese camp.
06:33But that brings me to my next point.
06:36There is this belief in certain New Delhi circles that if India can blow hot, blow cold with both partners,
06:43somehow Putin will not be pushed into Beijing's camp.
06:47Actually, I'm sorry to disappoint one and all by telling you it has already happened.
06:51With each increasing day as the war has started, China has practically access to all of Siberian oil and natural gas reserves.
07:01And Putin has been more than willing to sign that off with the pipeline deals to Beijing.
07:05And that is happening because China is also a major importer.
07:08It's not just Indians who are purchasing Russian oil in copious quantities.
07:13And Putin leans very heavily on Beijing, which has not supplied a government equipment,
07:19but supplementary equipment, defence equipment has been supplied to Moscow since the war began in February 22.
07:27And also Russia is increasingly indebted to China economically.
07:32It is a completely lopsided relationship in terms of trade deficit.
07:36So all that has happened and the ship has sailed.
07:38So I don't understand why Indians keep going on about the fact that we must see to that.
07:42We don't push Moscow into Beijing's camp when it already is.
07:46And Mr Singh, I have something more disturbing to tell you again as a historian.
07:51If you remember, in November 86, when Gorbachev made his first state visit after assuming office a year earlier,
07:58as Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi's guest, following that visit on the last day of the press conference,
08:06Mr Gorbachev made it quite clear. And this was the USSR.
08:09This is not Russia, which panned out a few years later when the dissolution of the Soviet Union occurred.
08:14This was the USSR. I repeat, Mr Singh, the USSR and Premier Gorbachev,
08:19who made it clear to a press conference of Indian journalists,
08:24in any future Sino-Indian showdown, Moscow cannot be counted upon for any assistance.
08:31Do not expect anything from us. And it seems people have forgotten this aspect.
08:37Gorbachev made this clear when Indo-USSR relations were at their very peak.
08:42And they never have been quite since after the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
08:48They have been quite stable, you can say, Indo-Russian relations.
08:51True. But it's not quite what it was during the Indo-USSR period,
08:55when India depended very heavily on Moscow for the UN veto on Kashmir and other matters,
09:01but also for defense equipment and trade and the like.
09:04But Gorbachev could say point blank to India on his last day's visit.
09:09And what happened after 86 was that the Sino-USSR frontier border agreement was being worked upon
09:17and came into effect because China didn't just have a border war with India in 62.
09:22It had a border war with the USSR in 69, which people forget, in the Soviet Far East.
09:28And it had never really been demarcated.
09:32And Gorbachev was determined to get that going.
09:35And it finally came out in the early 90s. And the Sino-Russian frontier is now settled.
09:40It's only the Sino-Indian border that is a question of acrimony,
09:44because China has pretty much arranged border agreements with 12 to 15 other states.
09:50It's only the India problem, India imbroglio, which remains as such.
09:54So this is to point out to you that in this forlorn hope of harking back to some Indo-Soviet honeymoon period,
10:01as certain Indian left intellectuals, journalists, and even diplomats keep talking about,
10:06Moscow will not come to your assistance, whether the Ukraine war took place or not,
10:12whether Russia invaded Georgia or not.
10:15This is a different dynamic and Moscow made it plain.
10:18And Putin is exactly going to follow what Gorbachev did.
10:21Why would he stick his nose out for you, particularly when he is in hock to Beijing?
10:27It's not happening.
10:29And the sooner Indians wake up and smell the coffee, the better.
10:32But the situations might have changed a bit.
10:36You know, when we see Prime Minister Narendra Modi hugging Putin,
10:40which rarely happens that someone is hugging Putin.
10:43So we want to understand from you that how the situations have changed after Prime Minister Narendra Modi has come.
10:50We want to understand that maybe the Western powers,
10:54of course, the USA being the leaders of those Western powers or leading the NATO,
10:59how they would see it. Are they seeing it that, you know,
11:03maybe Prime Minister would rub US in the wrong way when such a big war is going on?
11:08So much of aid is being transferred from USA to Ukraine.
11:13So at that moment, how would they read, you know, Prime Minister Modi?
11:18Of course, so many images with Ukrainian president also came out,
11:22where he looked quite emotional with Zelensky.
11:27So both these things that have happened in this week, will that rub US in a different manner?
11:33Of course, we have talked about the past and the strategies that they had,
11:37but I'm also talking about on personal level, how the world leaders, especially USA,
11:43how are they going to react to it? And elections are there.
11:46So there could be a difference as well.
11:48Well, insofar as Washington and London were concerned with the Moscow visit in July,
11:55it was familiar fare to them. Yes, they did make some noises about it that it's regrettable.
12:00They were not outright condemnatory,
12:02but they did express their displeasure not to tell India what it can or cannot do.
12:07But it's just that when you're the world's largest democracy after 77 years
12:11and you run a transparent polity based on adult franchise,
12:15not a repressive regime, which just locks up people arbitrarily,
12:19which is happening in Putin's Russia today, which is a throwback to the Soviet Union.
12:24You would expect and that is what I think Indians don't get,
12:28is that they would like some vocal movement on the part of Delhi to at least condemn the invasion.
12:35In that, you are a democracy,
12:37you're not just any country because India always says that it's exceptional
12:42and the Indian pursuit of foreign policy has always been based on its exceptional status
12:47as a country, based on its non-alignment,
12:50that it will always tell others what it thinks,
12:52whether they are friends or allies, because things must be based on principles.
12:56So it's a question of right versus wrong and right versus might.
13:01You can't just walk into a country and take it over. Just as,
13:04like I said, Iraq happened with Kuwait and Putin happened with Ukraine,
13:09which has been a sovereign de jure de facto independent entity for the last 30 plus years,
13:15along with other 14 republics of the USA, which went their separate ways.
13:20Now, Mr. Putin has his own historical baggage
13:23because he has never forgiven the end of the Cold War
13:25and he feels Russia's prominence was eclipsed by the West and that the West,
13:31the West wasn't. Putin's psychology is this, Mr. Singh,
13:35from what we hear in London and what some Russian experts tell me,
13:39it's not that he's upset that the West has accused or criticized Russia
13:46or gone against it, whether in Kosovo or other actions.
13:50His problem is the West has ignored Russia
13:53and that for him is a greater humiliation
13:56and slight, the sense of as if we don't matter.
14:01That is what really gets him.
14:03It's not that the West has criticized Russia or not criticized Russia.
14:07It's just that you, it feels that Russia is just bypassed in major decisions,
14:12which explains Putin's psychology and actions in Georgia,
14:16in Syria, in Ukraine, and in Serbia during the late 90s.
14:22But putting that aside, the West understands
14:26that India has had a very strong relationship with the Soviet Union,
14:31despite and it also understands that India is not a client state of Russia.
14:37It never has been, which must lead you and others to then ask
14:41if Mr. Modi can hug Putin in the middle of this war in July,
14:47but then Mr. Modi hugs practically so many other states of the world.
14:50So what's so exceptional is what I would ask in the first place
14:53and why would people make so much capital about it?
14:56But then the second point is in a month's time,
14:59Moscow was slightly taken aback because Mr. Modi lands up in Kiev.
15:03What does it tell you? That India will do what it feels
15:07and this goes back to this Indian mentality of strategic autonomy
15:11and that we will meet and shake hands with who we want.
15:14You can't tell us what we can do or cannot do.
15:17And this was a message, this visit to Kiev was a message to the West
15:22that India is not Putin's puppet, that we can do what we want
15:28and we will meet who we want and when we want.
15:31For example, coming from my own field of work, Iran in studies primarily,
15:36Washington and Tehran are at loggerheads since 1979,
15:39but India has had a very stable relationship with Iran
15:44as one of the few West Asian partners and as a Muslim Republic.
15:48And India has of course had to accede to the sanctions
15:51which were imposed up to 2006. It fell into place.
15:54Okay. But at the same time, India did not dial down its relationship
15:58with Tehran just because Washington has a problem with it
16:01and India could stand up to Washington that we will still maintain,
16:05we can maintain relationships with others who may fight among themselves.
16:09So that's what happened with the Kiev visit.
16:12Okay, but I understand your point in that way,
16:15but just focusing on Modi, of course, we are talking about the Indian perspective over here.
16:22So we have heard several statements, you know, from international leaders as well,
16:27not just now but also in the past that it is just one person
16:31who can broker a deal and can end the war.
16:35Many have said that, you know, Narendra Modi has good relations there.
16:39He has good relations with the US as well.
16:41Of course, he went to meet Zelensky as well.
16:43But I just want to understand from you that those who are many who are banking
16:49that Narendra Modi being the Indian PM,
16:52he can have some role in, you know, warring factions that he can stop the war
16:59or there is a good reason that you see that is there any reason that you can tell is
17:05that what will be the points that make India stronger
17:08or there is a possibility that Modi can play a role in stopping this big war
17:14which is going on for two years.
17:16Like Jordan is trying quite hard in Middle East to stop the war between Israel and Hamas.
17:21So can Modi have some similar role that he can bring both parties on the same table
17:27because it is not being able to be done.
17:30They try to do it in Switzerland.
17:31They try to have a peace talk over there.
17:35But Putin outrightly said that he will not attend it.
17:39India cannot play a role.
17:40It's as simple as that. The Jordanian example is instructive
17:44and I'm glad you brought that up.
17:46But therein is one different proviso in that Jordan is seriously involved
17:51for its own security and embattled relationship tied with the Arab world
17:55and Israel on one side. India has no stake in the Caucasus.
18:02It has relations, which is all very well,
18:04but it has no direct stake in the matter.
18:07And India's intervention or China's intervention,
18:11which carries greater heft than India,
18:14does not matter to Putin because it's very personal.
18:17It has come down to an ethnic-fatricidal conflict,
18:21which in any case it was even at the very outset,
18:24and it's personal with Putin. Just as it was personal between Hitler and Stalin,
18:30there is the personal dimension where he has staked his entire career on this
18:35and it's clearly blowing up in Putin's face,
18:37whether one likes to believe it or not. The point is,
18:40Ukraine is still standing despite being battered and bruised.
18:43It has not caved in and it's not over in a matter of weeks,
18:47which is what Putin boasted to Xi Jinping just after the Winter Olympics had finished,
18:54if you remember. And clearly China looks back also and knows,
18:59even if it doesn't say so and did not say so to Putin when they had the last summit in May,
19:04when Putin came into Beijing, that things are not going well.
19:07And even the Chinese privately ask themselves,
19:11although they publicly don't condemn Putin in Moscow,
19:14as India doesn't, as to what is the endgame and what is the purpose of this all?
19:19That is the similar question which is being asked in South Block 2,
19:22I'm sure by Indian diplomats,
19:24and they must realize that this is just one man's obsession with Ukraine.
19:29It is Putin's. It is not Russia's war.
19:32It is not a war that the Russian people asked for or sought,
19:35which explains why the Russian economy may still be stabilized,
19:39but at least 30 to 40,000 Russian emigres,
19:44the best of Russia's brain drain talent has gone up to Argentina,
19:47Turkey, Israel, and so on and so forth,
19:50because they don't want to be conscripted into this war.
19:53If it was Russia's war, you have to explain to me,
19:55why are these Russians all abroad?
19:58And of course, the question is, why are Indians being captured
20:02and found dead also as being pressed into the fight as we have seen in recent times?
20:07And the Indian Foreign Office and Mr. Modi brought it up in July,
20:11and some bodies, I believe, have to return back
20:13because they were lured into the pretext of going as expatriates,
20:17as if they were going to work in Bahrain or Dubai.
20:19And the next thing you know, they're forcibly put into a uniform,
20:22which, what does it show you, if not Russia's desperate tactic?
20:26So I don't see India, and in fact,
20:29India did bring up something with Mr. Putin on that last month,
20:33but nothing really much has happened
20:35because some people have been dead,
20:37of those seven or eight Indians recently from Haryana,
20:40and their bodies have not even come back yet.
20:42So I don't see anything quite yet happening
20:46or India having a substantial role to play in defusing the situation.
20:51There is talk of it happening,
20:53and has been so since the war began as one of Moscow's closest allies.
20:59But India has never really had that sort of relationship
21:02where it could have leverage with Moscow to tell it what to do.
21:06It has never been that sort of relationship.
21:08It has purely been a defense and economic relationship,
21:12and partly political, during the Soviet Union days
21:14when it used the veto to help India for Kashmir and other matters.
21:18But otherwise, even Moscow has realized,
21:22Russia has realized, that India is slowly going to the Western camp.
21:27And of course, they don't say much about it
21:29because they still want to be in India's good books.
21:31Just as India tries to be in Moscow's good books
21:34and not try to push it too much into the Chinese camp.
21:37So it's a question of hedging and leverage all the time,
21:40and such is the nature of murky politics.
21:44Okay, but still, last question.
21:47Actually, I think we are running out of time.
21:48So I'll ask you last question.
21:50Let's summarize it in two minutes.
21:52My question is that this current trip,
21:55how PM Modi would have seen it?
21:58What kind of benefits that it would have?
22:01Of course, on PM Modi's image,
22:03that he is a leader who is reachable by both countries.
22:08And Zelensky has anyway, so many times has said
22:11that you should talk to Putin
22:13and you should try to get a resolve on this.
22:15So overall, just give me an idea that both trips,
22:20how is this going to impact PM Modi's figure in the world?
22:26And of course, in Asia, in Middle East, of course.
22:30The visit is seen largely symbolic
22:33that the world's largest democracy can maintain
22:35communications open lines with both antagonists.
22:38That's the first thing that can be said.
22:40Now, what you make of the trip subsequently
22:43is a different matter altogether
22:46in that it is largely symbolic,
22:48and it does go to show that India can demonstrate
22:52some empathy with the Ukrainian situation,
22:55even though it has not condemned Moscow
22:57outright for the invasion.
22:58Incidentally, India has sent more than 100 tons
23:01of medical humanitarian equipment to Kiev
23:04since the war began.
23:05That must also be placed on record.
23:08And that has all been shipped via Poland
23:10just as Mr. Modi took the train from Poland to Kiev.
23:13So India has done symbolically that bit as well.
23:17And of course, prior to the invasion,
23:18you must remember that Ukraine supplied
23:2177.8% of India's edible oil imports,
23:25edible oil, because the Indian edible oil industry
23:28has never been one that has been well set up.
23:31And India still largely depends on oil imports,
23:34not just of the hydrocarbon source,
23:37but also the edible source from abroad.
23:39And Ukraine's sunflower oil was a key supplier to India.
23:44And that stopped, and so overnight that stopped
23:47and created problems with food security issues for India,
23:50but also for the rest of the developing world.
23:52And it's interesting to note on that point,
23:55Mr. Singh, that a few months after the war began,
23:57this is around April or June 22,
24:00people said that this was primarily an ethnic conflict
24:04between two former Soviet cousins or Slavic cousins
24:08and that sort of thing, and it's a white man's war.
24:10It doesn't affect us,
24:12but it does affect the world in more ways than one.
24:16It has World War ramifications
24:18in that the economies of India, Egypt,
24:21and others have gone to spiral
24:22with their balance of payments.
24:24Bangladesh too, incidentally,
24:25which is looking for a bailout this month,
24:30undertook a lot of issues, had to endure a lot
24:33with the balance of payments crisis
24:35once the Ukraine war began.
24:36So it must be realized that the global South
24:39does have a stake,
24:40although they'd like to dismiss the matter
24:42and say that this is purely a white man's war
24:45and has no direct effect on us.
24:47It does, as I've pointed out,
24:49with all these ramifications
24:50that show up in more ways than one.
24:52And last example, the diamond industry
24:54in Bombay and Surat and Nafsari, if you know.
24:58Diamond dealers in Bombay are tearing their hair out now
25:01because of the new sanctions that have come in
25:04for Russian diamonds from Siberian mines.
25:06And they have to make sure there's a traceability factor,
25:10whether it comes from South African mines
25:12or from Russian mines.
25:14And this new slew of legislation
25:17has thrown so many of them overboard overnight.
25:20So that's just to take one example from Bombay.
25:23So I end with that,
25:25so that people don't immediately think
25:27that the Ukraine war has nothing to do with us.
25:29Go to Saveri Bazar Bombay
25:31and ask them what they're enduring
25:33and they will tell you how the war
25:34so far away is having effects on them.
25:38I'm so glad you could bring in all angles
25:41that to Saveri Bazar.
25:43Thank you so much for your time
25:44and giving us these insights.
25:47We really appreciate it.
25:49And of course, we'll be speaking with you again
25:51on some other topics
25:53and we'll connect again.
25:54Thank you so much for your time, sir.