Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:06You with a marquee matchup
00:09tonight in Las Vegas, our third
00:11and final ranked versus ranked
00:14top 25 matchup to begin week
00:16number one on a Sunday night in
00:19Sin City. It's 13th ranked LSU
00:22a four and a half point favorite
00:24against 23rd ranked USC to open
00:27up the season for both the Bayou
00:29and Los Angeles. Let's start
00:31with a little bit of big picture
00:32conversation before we dive into
00:34the weeds of this matchup. It is
00:36year number three at both of
00:38these programs for two very well
00:40established head coaches in
00:42college football. Ryan Kelly in
00:44Baton Rouge LSU has won ten
00:46games each of his first two
00:47years. Lincoln Riley, year
00:49number three in Los Angeles
00:51after a disappointing seven win
00:53regular season with Caleb
00:54Williams, but a bold victory
00:56that provides a glimmer of
00:57Miller Moss. Now the starting
00:58quarterback. Where do you think
00:59these two schools enter the
01:012024 season? Well, the
01:02perception is that they're
01:03headed in opposite directions.
01:05And the reason why I say that is
01:06you talk about Brian Kelly in
01:08terms of year number three, where
01:10he had Jaden Daniels, the
01:11Heisman Trophy winner this year
01:13there plus 125 to make the
01:15college football playoff. They
01:16started in the area of about
01:18eight to one. They've now moved
01:1912 to one to win the SEC and
01:22more importantly, they were
01:23about a 14 to 16 number to win
01:26the national championship. On
01:27the flip side, you have USC
01:30cab with a seven and a half win
01:31total, a 20 to one shot to win
01:33the big 10. What that's unheard
01:35of when you just think about
01:36Lincoln Riley in his days in
01:38Oklahoma and certainly in the
01:39two years with Caleb Williams
01:41for USC. I mean, this is a
01:43perfect opportunity for Miller
01:45Moss and the USC Trojans to not
01:47just win this game, over exceed
01:49expectations this year. Well, I
01:51think it's really interesting.
01:52These are two teams that I'm,
01:53I'm in on both, right? I'm, I
01:55like both these coaches. I think
01:57both of these quarterbacks,
01:58while they have big shoes to
01:59fill, while they might not hit
02:01those levels first and second
02:03overall pick, I think in the
02:05landscape of college football
02:07are probably a touch underrated
02:09and we've put too many guys
02:10ahead of them. When you
02:11consider the situations that
02:12these two quarterbacks are in,
02:14it makes this game specifically
02:16tough for me. In fact, I've
02:17kind of battled a bit from my
02:19futures of who do I need here?
02:21Who do I want here in, in this
02:23game? And I think if LSU gets
02:25this win, we start, we can then
02:28kind of push them in that
02:29national title conversation a
02:31little bit more depending on how
02:32it looks, because that's the
02:34range that LSU is closer to
02:36than USC. If the Trojans win a
02:39football game like this though,
02:40here on the road, I know the
02:43schedule's tough, right? They
02:44didn't get an easy break when it
02:46comes to that big 10 schedule,
02:48but all of a sudden now you go,
02:50well, hold on a minute. Can you
02:52can you get, even if they went
02:53one and two with Michigan, Penn
02:55State, Notre Dame with two of
02:56those games being at home at
02:58nine and three, I think the
03:00difficult schedule here of USC
03:01as part of the reason I have them
03:02in my CFP, there's a pathway for
03:05this team to crack into the
03:06college football playoff. And
03:07although LSU plays in the
03:09southeastern conference, the
03:10Bayou Bengals have the second
03:12easiest schedule of the 16
03:14schools from the SEC. I also
03:17think the numbers tonight could
03:19indicate what 2024 has in store
03:21both from a conference
03:22perspective, that outlook and
03:24the chase for a college football
03:26playoff appearance. And my first
03:28focus, not to the four and a
03:30half point spread in favor of LSU
03:32Kev, but that total of 64 and a
03:35half, two defenses that were
03:37atrocious a season ago, but with
03:39two great offenses. Think about
03:41the quarterbacks for these teams
03:43last year, the Heisman Trophy
03:45winner and Jaden Daniels and the
03:47reigning Heisman Trophy winner in
03:49Caleb Williams. But LSU and USC
03:51both played 13 college football
03:53games a season ago. They are two
03:55of five FPS programs around the
03:57country to go over in more than
03:5975% of their games. LSU over in
04:0212 of 13, USC over in 10 of 13
04:07changes for both schools at the
04:09defensive coordinator position
04:10for both LSU and USC. And I
04:13think when you look at these
04:14teams, big picture, how the
04:16defense has performed tonight
04:17could say a lot. Yeah, I'm on
04:19the under at 64 and a half. Part
04:21of what pushed me is I spent a
04:23lot of time on the total
04:24thinking about the step forward
04:26the defenses need to take. And
04:27then I was neglecting the point
04:28you made of, oh yeah, the first
04:30and second overall picks played
04:31on these teams last year. A
04:33little exercise for the people
04:34last year, USC played both
04:36Washington and Oregon,
04:37Washington. That game total was
04:3976 and a half. The Oregon game
04:41total 78 and a half. If these
04:44two teams played last year, what
04:46do you think that total is? Is
04:48it in the 80? You think? I think
04:51we're touching 80. I think
04:52towards the tail end of the
04:53year, let's say this was a
04:54November matchup. They're
04:55touching 80. 78, 79. I don't
04:58know, but I mean, it's in the
04:59ball between 76 and a half and
05:0180 and a half, probably. So I
05:03think the question then is year
05:05over year, how much of these
05:07teams, it's hard to, but move
05:10towards an under team, if you
05:11will, right? Dropping the
05:13offensive power rating, pushing
05:15up the defensive power rating.
05:17If you said nine points per
05:19team, I don't think that would
05:21be crazy. So even if you go to
05:22that high bar of 80 and a half,
05:24it's 62 and a half year. I think
05:26there's a little value on this
05:27under. You see, I lean that way
05:29too. I don't love the total as
05:31much as I lean to the side in
05:33terms of this matchup, but I
05:34understand what Kevin is saying.
05:36I'll play devil's advocate in
05:37the sense of we have two
05:39different defensive
05:40coordinators, Blake Baker for
05:42LSU. And we also have Lynn that
05:44comes over from UCLA, right? And
05:46we both have two pass happy
05:47offenses. Take away Caleb
05:49Williams and Jaden Daniels from
05:51the equation. We still have
05:52Miller Moss that has experienced
05:54372 in regards to the bowl win
05:56over Louisville and Garrett
05:57Nussmeyer got the bowl win over
05:59Wisconsin, right? Do we feel
06:01like the lack of production with
06:02those quarterbacks is maybe 80%
06:05out of the hundred because LSU
06:07threw for 304 yards per game,
06:09USC 333, right? They're going to
06:11chuck it. So, you know, the
06:13biggest problem too in week one
06:14matchup spent is defensive
06:16secondaries reading coverage,
06:18especially with new schemes. So
06:20if this, let's say in the first
06:21half gets into the like mid
06:23fifties, that might be an area
06:25where I might jump in as opposed
06:27to the pregame number at 64 and
06:29a half. And the quarterback
06:30comparison is also fair as a
06:32representation of these two new
06:34programs entering 2024. Miller
06:36Moss was not the heir apparent
06:38to Caleb Williams. It was Malakai
06:40Nelson, but Miller Moss was
06:42great in the holiday bowl as
06:43maybe we have learned about
06:44Malakai Nelson. He was not the
06:46five-star recruit and best
06:47quarterback in the country that
06:48we expected. He transferred to
06:50Boise. He lost out on the
06:51starting job for the Broncos,
06:53but Miller Moss, a holiday bowl
06:55record, six touchdowns against
06:57a good Louisville defense
06:58throwing for more than 370
07:00yards and Nussmeyer bode his
07:02time in Baton Rouge as well.
07:04Thirteen appearances in the last
07:06three years in the Reliable
07:07Quest Bowl against Wisconsin
07:08last year, 395 yards, three
07:11touchdowns and an interception.
07:14Again, defense is going to be a
07:15key component, not only tonight
07:17as it pertains to the total, but
07:19the season for both of these
07:20teams. Danton Lynn, the former
07:22defensive coordinator at UCLA
07:24makes the short trip to
07:25downtown L.A., takes over as the
07:27D.C. at Southern Cal. Finally,
07:30Alex Grinch was fired by his
07:32longtime friend and head boss in
07:35Lincoln Riley. Blake Baker comes
07:37over from Missouri, a Mizzou team
07:39that ranked in the top half and
07:40the top four of SEC total
07:43defenses each of his two years
07:45in Columbia.