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IMF Program ki Manzoori Main takheer kay peeche kia Wajuhat hai? Expert Analysis
IMF Program ki Manzoori Main takheer kay peeche kia Wajuhat hai? Expert Analysis
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00:00Mr. Haroon, first of all, we are going to the IMF for the 24th time.
00:04We are fulfilling the prerequisites for the 24th time.
00:08And we have no other option.
00:11If a common citizen is going to run his house for the 24th time,
00:17and the shopkeepers tell him to ask other shopkeepers
00:21if they can knock on the door,
00:24then one thinks, should we go for the 25th time or not?
00:28Are we on those lines?
00:29Or have we not started thinking about it yet?
00:32Yes, Nika, thank you.
00:33Look, there is a loss of credibility at the moment.
00:39We have increased our exposure in friendly countries
00:44and we are not able to satisfy them on our economic gain plan
00:50that the money we have taken from you will be returned in this way in this period.
00:56For that, we need a very strong growth plan
01:00which is vetted by international experts
01:03so that our friends are satisfied.
01:07I want to talk a little about the IMF.
01:11But our presence in the IMF
01:16whose job it is to strengthen Pakistan's case and take it forward,
01:22unfortunately, historically,
01:28we appoint a retired bureaucrat as a reward
01:34for those who have no interest and have retired.
01:38Secondly, a junior man is sitting in the IMF.
01:41In the IMF, we need economists of macroeconomics
01:44who can speak their language.
01:47So, one is our weakness there.
01:49Secondly, politically, Pakistan is not the preferred country of the IMF shareholders.
01:58And we understand this.
02:00Look, 16.5% of the shareholding is in the US,
02:046% is in Japan, 6% is in China,
02:07although China is on our side.
02:09Then 4%, 4%, 4% is in France, Germany and the UK.
02:14Like the IMF-UN, no one decides on consensus or one vote.
02:18It decides on the economic muscle, on the savings it has.
02:23And you know that these countries see us from China's point of view.
02:27That means we have to do more strong economic diplomacy in Washington
02:32so that our case goes ahead.
02:34When we sign a staff-level agreement,
02:38the third mistake we make,
02:39I have worked from that side for 18 years,
02:42the third mistake we make is that
02:44whenever there is a staff-level agreement,
02:46we start giving political populist statements.
02:50It's a process.
02:52Why are you talking about Mr. Ishaq Dar, Mr. Harunchali?
02:56No, everyone does this.
02:58Look, there was no need to give the date of August yet,
03:03unless, as they say in banking,
03:04until the cheque is in the mail,
03:06you don't announce it.
03:08You see, there are steps.
03:10When a staff-level manager goes to the executive committee,
03:16which is run by Kristina Georgieva and Geeta Gopinath,
03:21they make it a priority.
03:23Then it goes to the executive board, as I said,
03:26which has a shareholder for power decisions.
03:30All the members have it.
03:32Mr. Harun, one thing we want to achieve with this
03:35is macroeconomic stability.
03:37But what about microeconomic stability?
03:40That stability which is important for a common citizen.
03:43Because in this context,
03:45even shutting down utility stores is being seen as a step
03:48for the poor.
03:51And because of that, the poor will have a lot of problems.
03:54It's difficult to get a subsidy at one place.
03:56So, is our focus there?
03:59Yes, look, this is a more important question for this.
04:03Look, we have already gone to the IMF 23 times.
04:06It will happen 24 times in a row.
04:08But it is dangerous to ask for more deposits from other countries
04:14because your vulnerability increases on the diplomatic side.
04:18Now, let's look at our current situation.
04:21100 million people are on the brink of poverty or below.
04:26Joblessness, your employment rate has fallen.
04:3130 lakh children are coming to the market.
04:34Now, for this, we need 4-5 proactive policy shifts.
04:40Now, what are those policies?
04:42If you want to revive the industry, which the IMF does not stop,
04:46then you need investment and industrial policy.
04:50I ask everyone, tell me,
04:53do you see a champion in the current cabinet leadership?
04:59Do you see one, Mr. Harun?
05:02I don't even know the name, to be honest.
05:04You don't know the names of the cabinet members?
05:06Honestly, I don't know who is the minister of our industry.
05:10You may know.
05:12That is very interesting.
05:13I am not talking about myself.
05:16I talk to investors from all over the world,
05:19I talk to people, nobody knows.
05:20So, you are saying that the government is not doing
05:23what it should do for the ease of doing business
05:26of the people who should be in contact with the industry?
05:29Look, the government has to reach out to people right now.
05:33The person who people trust, reaches out.
05:37Right?
05:38Now, I don't see a champion in our commerce ministry,
05:42nor on the industry side.
05:43It is wrong to put everything on finance.
05:47Unfortunately, the coordination of the planning commission
05:49and finance, which we read, is also weak.
05:52We have few economists, and I am not criticizing this.
05:56I am telling what is my perception of people
05:59and what is the perception of people.
06:01We have to go towards some targeted subsidies.
06:05If you look at the expenses on the utility store,
06:08what we are doing,
06:09this is the same circular debt that is eventually created.
06:12That you make expensive electricity and sell it cheap.
06:14Mr. Haroon, let's look at this from a different angle.
06:17We, subsidies, targeted, untargeted, generic, specific.
06:22Leaving these,
06:24provide opportunities for our people
06:27so that they automatically get employment.
06:30We shut down the internet here.
06:31The children, the freelancers, the youth,
06:34the IT companies are sitting hand in hand at this time.
06:38What should we do now?
06:39We had made a way to reduce the exchange rate.
06:42We put that aside.
06:43So, don't do it.
06:44You don't give subsidies.
06:45You don't stick to your politics.
06:47At least the government can do this.
06:49Yes, I am telling you,
06:51you need a policy shift
06:54and you will have to build a consensus on it
06:58so that market-based employment opportunities can be created.
07:02People should have access to managerial skills,
07:06access to markets,
07:07access to finance,
07:09and targeted.
07:10I will give an example.
07:11Just now I was listening on TV
07:13that the toll on the motorway has been increased from X to Y.
07:17If this toll is doubled for land cruisers
07:21and halved for smaller vehicles,
07:24then it is a targeted subsidy.
07:26You are giving it from the rich to the poor.
07:29Similarly, if you have to give coupons for food,
07:32you should target it along with BISP.
07:35But the government will dole out taxpayers' money in a populist way.
07:43It is not sustainable in a country that does not have liquidity.
07:47Right.
07:48Okay, last question.
07:49You are also a member of the privatization committee.
07:53So, you know what is going on inside.
07:56We have been hearing about privatization for a long time.
07:59Do you see that it will happen at some point?
08:04Or is there less hope for the world?
08:06Yes, again, our track record is that
08:09apart from offloading some companies' shares,
08:12we have not been able to do good privatization for the past 15-20 years.
08:18Now, the question arises that why don't we question ourselves
08:22that if the whole world does it?
08:23First of all, let me tell you
08:25that selling family silver is not a policy.
08:30The policy is that the government does not want to do business.
08:34That is why we will either restructure the institutions,
08:36or give them management, or privatize them.
08:39That is the job of the experts.
08:41Okay.
08:41If you read the law of the privatization commission,
08:43the experts were supposed to run this auction house.
08:47We made it a ministry.
08:49We established it.
08:50That was the establishment.
08:52Now, when I was a member of the cabinet committee,
08:5427 projects used to come for privatization.
08:57After that, there used to be a tug-of-war.
08:59Then, six used to go back.
09:00Even today, unfortunately,
09:02That is what is happening.
09:03May God change this, Mr. Adam.