"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Jumat (23/08/2024) dengan Tema Situasi Politik RI Panas, IHSG Merosot".
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00:00Thank you for joining us and good morning for those of you who have just watched the MarketBuzz segment.
00:10The IASG price index was closed in the red zone in our trade after touching the highest level of intraday and closing throughout the period.
00:18The correction took place amid the sentiment of concern about a constitutional crisis after the decision of the Constitutional Court, which received rejection from the legislative body of the DPR RI.
00:31The IASG price index fell after strengthening in four trading days in a row, breaking a new highest record in both intraday and closing positions.
00:42On Thursday, the IASG fell 0.87%, to level 7,488.68, to the end of trading in the Indonesian stock market.
00:52The entire sector index fell along with the IASG.
00:55The infrastructure sector fell 1.50%, the technology sector rose 1.40%, the non-primary consumer goods sector fell 1.24%, the transportation and logistics sector fell 1.23%, and the finance sector fell 1.19%.
01:13Although weak, the IASG was recorded as still strengthening 1.07% in the last week, while since the beginning of the year the IASG is still strengthening 2.97%.
01:23From the side of the mutual funds, Raksasa became the largest supporter of the IASG.
01:28The Central Asia Tbk or BBSIA Central Bank was the largest supporter of the IASG, with a total of 9.9 index points.
01:40The Indonesian People's Bank was the largest supporter of the IASG, with a total of 8.2 index points.
01:45The Indonesian State Bank was the largest supporter of the IASG, with a total of 7.4 index points.
01:51The IASG is in the midst of heating up the action of the Turkish Demo on the implementation of the Constitution of the Regional Head of State.
01:59This change means that the political party's support limit in the implementation of the Regional Head of State and also the age requirement is predicted to be one of the risks.
02:07This is characterized by a constitutional crisis due to the decision of the Constitutional Court, which could change the map of the implementation of the Regional Head of State, obtained from the legislative body of the DPRRI.
02:20This condition makes market players who are enjoying a smooth wave of the sentiment of the Federal Reserve, which managed to raise the largest Rupiah value in Asia throughout August.
02:30And the IASG New Alternate has begun to increase awareness.
02:35Reported by Bloomberg News, Wells Fargo, a US-based investment bank, estimates that there is a possibility that the sentiment of Rupiah and government obligations will be affected by the emergence of political unrest,
02:46although the possibility is not long.
02:48Various sources for IDXJournal.
02:57Yes, Mr. Mayor, we summarized some of the main sentiments throughout yesterday's trade, Mr. Mayor.
03:03And maybe it will still have an impact on today's trade.
03:06Among them, there is a demo of the rejection of the RUU-Pilkada in the DPR, which was funny.
03:10Then, this also affects the Rupiah against the US Dollar, which is 100 points below, approaching the level of 15,600, after previously being strong at 15,400.
03:22Then there is from TenBank, BNI or BBNI noted that the interest rate of 10.7 trillion rupiah increased by 3.8% in the first semester of 2024.
03:30We will review it later, but before that, we turn to the economic agenda as follows.
03:34Friday, August 23, 2024, there is the IHK Inti Japan Year-on-Year and in July, the IHK Inti Singapore Year-on-Year and in July, the reserve of deficit from India in the US Dollar.
03:45Meanwhile, from the United States, there is Chairman of the Board of Governors, Jerome Powell.
03:50Those are some global economic agendas that should be considered.
03:55Then, from within the country, there is the MI10 Agenda, there is IKBI or IKBI RUPS, followed by SOMI, then there is MLPT, DPS Dividend Tunei Interim.
04:06An update from the Asian Stock Exchange this morning, will the stock market follow the movement of the US Stock Exchange that is moving in the negative territory? The data are as follows.
04:15Let's take a look at the news for Nikkei Japan.
04:18Then there is also the Shred Times, KOSPI, Hang Seng Hong Kong tend to strengthen, where Nikkei increased by 0.07%, Shred Times Singapore increased by 0.1%, KOSPI decreased by 0.34%, Hang Seng Hong Kong increased by 1.44%.
04:32Where is the index of the joint stock price in the middle of the political sentiment that seems to be heating up, but it seems to be starting to cool down.
04:40We will discuss it through a video conference with Mr. Muhammad Nafan Aji Gustaw Utama, Senior Market Cartist of Mirai Asset Security Indonesia.
04:48Good morning, Mr. Nafan.
04:50Good morning, Mrs. Prisana.
04:52Thank you for joining.
04:54Mr. Nafan, how far is the political sentiment, especially about the RUU, this election, will affect today's trade?
05:05Looking at our rupiah, it's down to 15,000, approaching 15,600.
05:12Okay, this is actually a demonstration for the Indonesian government, right?
05:18Close to the Indonesian government, even though the DPRK is forced to be ruled by the United States,
05:28but it doesn't help the United States, right?
05:31Like with Jakarta, even though there is a dispute in the United States.
05:35So, we hope that this year we will be able to live in democracy, of course.
05:46Actually, this is also related to the sentiment of the market.
05:53So, what should be done by the market players in the middle of the election?
06:22Actually, it was also said that it was back to the decision of the United States,
06:28not using the decision of the DPRK.
06:32Do you see, if we look at Asia, it tends to strengthen even though the United States is weak
06:39because it anticipates comments from Jerome Powell this Friday.
06:43Will the price index of our trade still be corrected?
06:50Yes, actually, if I look at it technically, it tends to be a limited downside.
06:54Because the ISP has started to approach the support area, which is at the level of 7,466 to 7,336.
07:06So, if the DPRK is able to return to the decision of the DPRK,
07:12it will automatically create tension for the investors.
07:18So, this can be used by the investors to tie the price.
07:23Actually, we will call a simple system, where Jerome Powell will reach not only the outlook of the United States,
07:33but also the potential of the Fed to implement a diva policy, which is the expansionary monetary policy.
07:42So, in this way, the market will be more optimistic.
07:47Because we see that the expansion of the Fed to increase the ratio of investor points
07:55can also be profitable.
07:57Because according to the Fed Watch Pool, the expansion can be 73% in September.
08:04So, automatically, the price index can be corrected.
08:10What do you think about the trend of the price index and the combination so far?
08:14It's still in the bullish phase, in my opinion.
08:17Because the movement of the ISG is still consistent, holding above the moving average of 10.
08:25And on the other hand, the movement of the ISG is still relatively holding at the major neckline.
08:32So, as long as the ISG does not break down from the two areas of support that I mentioned earlier,
08:38there will be a potential retracement to the existing area at 75.46% to 75.95%.
08:46Because of the benefits of the bullish phase experienced by the ISG.
08:51Of course, the net foreign buy is also increasing at 8.45 trillion.
08:57Previously, it was estimated at less than 8 trillion.
09:00So, there is a net foreign buy that continues to accumulate.
09:06So, the performance of the ISG so far is good.
09:12Okay. What about other sentiments?
09:13About the weak Rupiah, it's quite deep, right?
09:16From Rp15,400, now approaching Rp15,600.
09:20Then, there is a symposium from Jackson Hole,
09:22waiting for comments from Chairman of the Fed Jerome Powell about
09:26whether or not to lower the flow rate in September or when.
09:30How long will it be a trigger?
09:32Okay, as long as we are optimistic that soft lending,
09:40soft lending, pre-economics will happen.
09:43So, the Fed must implement a pivot policy.
09:47So, in terms of the flow rate,
09:49this will potentially make the Rupiah exchange rate appreciated, right?
09:54It can potentially be appreciated.
09:57Actually, the Rupiah exchange rate,
09:59which seems to be depreciated,
10:01aside from the dynamic of the last few years,
10:06we can also see that our transactions are also experiencing
10:10a large deficit in the range of US$3 billion.
10:15Of course, this is one of the reasons
10:18related to the performance of Rupiah,
10:21which experienced depreciation during the second quarter.
10:26This is also related to Volongga,
10:29which was implemented by the Fed at the time.
10:32So, you see, the tendency of Rupiah will reverse
10:37if the Fed finally decides to lower the flow rate.
10:41It means there will be further strengthening.
10:43But maybe this is as an anticipation,
10:47waiting for the decision of the Fed.
10:48That's why it weakens,
10:49at the same time, in a political moment that tends to be a bit hot in the country
10:53because it is colored by a funny demo action.
10:55No, and we also see that the Bank of Indonesia
10:59during August 21st,
11:01held a meeting,
11:03even though there is also an expectation that Rupiah
11:06will experience a strengthening, right?
11:08In the Rp15,400 level,
11:12there is hope that the Federal Reserve
11:14has the right momentum
11:17to overcome the monetary crisis.
11:19But the Federal Reserve held the meeting,
11:22because there are also various factors.
11:25What does it reflect, Mr. Nafan?
11:27What does it reflect in handling the flow rate?
11:29Yes, the bottom line is that the uncertainty still remains.
11:32That's how it is.
11:33Okay.
11:34Especially globally.
11:35So, it is obvious that the bottom line is that
11:38the BI will most likely be related to the action of the Fed
11:43so that it can increase its optimism towards the market
11:49and how to implement the default policy.
11:53That's very essential.
11:55Okay.
11:56In the middle of the demonstration in the country
11:58that was funny,
12:01the ICG is experiencing a break,
12:03but there are also foreigners who collect certain shares.
12:06What is your own recommendation and choice, Mr. Nafan?
12:09We will review it in the next segment, Mr. Mayor.
12:11And don't go anywhere.
12:13We will be right back after the break.