Golf Best Bets: PGA Tour BMW Championship Predictions
Transcript
00:00live right here on the early line on sports grid. Our
00:06producer, Joe Friso, if you could, I'm not sure what our
00:10technical capabilities are at this moment. Are we good? We
00:15are good. Alright. You tell me, Joe. I think we're ready to go.
00:18Keith Stewart joins us live right here from the Mountain
00:21Time Zone in Denver, Colorado for the BMW Championship this
00:26week. The second leg of the PGA Tour playoffs. That is the
00:29FedEx Cup playoffs as we keep it rolling. Keith, as always,
00:33we appreciate the time. Last week in Memphis, this week out
00:36in the Rocky Mountain State, we appreciate the time here on the
00:39early line. Ben, it is a beautiful morning out here in
00:43Colorado for the BMW Championship. Let's talk a
00:46little golf. We got two weeks.
00:52Now, BMW 250 guys. I think we're Keith, our apologies. I
00:57believe we're having a couple of technical difficulties here
01:00on the early line on this Tuesday. Just keep us abreast
01:05as we try to get this thing rolling. Alright, we'll keep
01:09firing through. Keith, let's look back at Memphis last week
01:12and the Saint Jude Championship before we go forward to this
01:15week in the BMW Championship. The opening leg of the FedEx
01:19Cup playoffs. It wasn't easy for Hideki Matsuyama on Sunday
01:23but he did hold on to win the Saint Jude Championship to
01:27start off the FedEx Cup postseason. What did you make
01:30of Hideki's performance last week in Memphis? I tell you
01:34what, Ben. Hideki, it was really, it was really
01:37something because you have to consider how he started his
01:40week. The story surrounding him and his team, the fact that he
01:43didn't have his regular caddy there, the fact that he didn't
01:45have his coach there because they had gotten robbed over in
01:49London when they had stopped over from Paris heading to
01:51Memphis and those guys lost their visas and their passports
01:55in order to come to America. So, Hideki with a new caddy
01:59goes out and he wins and holds on on Sunday. An impressive
02:02performance and you know what? A good course fit and a good
02:05course fit again this week. We've seen a lot of multiple
02:08winners over the years in the playoffs. I think Hideki's still
02:11pretty alive this week, guys. Keith, the top 50 move on here
02:16to the advance to the next round but let me take a look at
02:18some of the guys that didn't finish there particularly in
02:21Rory McIlroy. Back-to-back 74s on the weekend. What happened
02:25to his game and not advancing? Well, that's an upset right
02:28there. DRS, how about the bottom of that leaderboard? You
02:31got T68, you got two guys, Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy
02:36and then 70th place Max Homa. I mean, three huge names and
02:39these guys are well out of form. I don't see how they, you
02:42know, they even get it back. I mean, I was there all week.
02:46Rory was hitting the driver everywhere. It was one of the
02:48worst ball striking weeks of his career and I just don't see
02:52how he flips the switch which is a shame because out here at
02:54Castle Pines, par 72, 8,130 yards on the scorecard. It's a
03:00perfect fit for Rory. Jack Nicklaus golf course, he loves
03:03those two but man, I tell you, it looked rough last week and
03:09not so much just the game, Donnie. It was his body
03:12language. He looked like he was just done for the year. He
03:15actually looks like he's been done since Pinehurst and he
03:17walked out of that scorer's tent and didn't want to talk to
03:20the media anymore. I think Rory needs a reset, boys. A
03:25difficult performance in Memphis but it should be stated
03:28that Rory McIlroy is still there at the BMW Championship.
03:32He ranks fifth in the FedEx Cup standings, did enter the
03:35postseason at third overall. Scottie Scheffler still in
03:39front. Hideki Matsuyama makes the big move up the board to
03:42number three in the FedEx Cup standings and Xander Shoffley,
03:45the two-time major champion this year, checks in at number
03:49two. So, as we see these odds, this is not for this week's
03:52event at the BMW Championship but just the FedEx Cup winner
03:56when all is said and done. Keith, how do you evaluate
03:59these odds at the moment? Scottie is for sure still the
04:03man to beat. You can't forget guys that next week when we
04:06take the top 30 to the Tour Championship, we have that
04:09staggered scarts. So, Scottie's not only going to be in first
04:13place but he's gonna get a couple extra strokes on the
04:15field. You know, last week, he wasn't great with the putter
04:18but everything else was. He finishes T4. This week, he's
04:22coming to a place where we're not on Bermuda gas greens
04:24anymore. So, I feel like the putter's gonna work a little
04:27bit better but it's a ball striker's paradise. You have to
04:30cover the fact that I'm at 6400 feet of elevation here at
04:34Castle Pines Golf Club. There's a huge adjustment to be made.
04:37Seven and a half percent of carry. So, that means when
04:40Donnie's hitting his driver 300 out here, he's hitting 23. So,
04:45all of a sudden, that 8100-yard golf course, he gets
04:48down to 7500 yards, four par fives. This is the perfect
04:52spot for Xander and Scottie. I think Scottie still easily
04:55maintains his lead going in and with a brand new redesigned
04:59Eastlake, I'm not sure that Xander has as much of an
05:02advantage over Scottie like he would anyone else. We take a
05:06look at the FanDuel Sportsbook here for the odds for this
05:08weekend's BMW Championship. No stranger, it's Scottie Sheffler
05:11to plus 330 price followed by Xander Shoffle to plus 550 but
05:14how about this? Rory McIlroy, third in line at a 12-1 price
05:18followed by Morikawa, Cantlay, and Matsuyama. Give us some
05:21looks here at the top of the leaderboard for this weekend
05:23here, Keith. I think the big two are really impressive. You
05:27just go to Xander. He won at Valhalla, the PGA Championship,
05:31his first major of his career and the first major of his two
05:34this year. That's a Jack Nicklaus-designed golf course.
05:37Big golf course just like this one that I'm at this week and
05:40of course, you have Scottie who's still striking the ball
05:42unbelievably. He doesn't like to putt on Bermuda. We're back
05:45on Poa, Bentgrass, Greens. I feel like Scottie's going to
05:48have a little bit of a bounce back. Both of those guys are
05:51going to be a huge part of this conversation. I won't bet them
05:54at single odds. I'll have to wait till the live market. I did
05:57bet Scottie on Sunday morning in Memphis when he was seven
05:59back because he was over 10-1. I mean, I'm betting Scottie
06:02anytime live, he goes over 10-1 and he's not in the jail cell,
06:06guys. I mean, he is that good and he's that impressive. So at
06:09the end of the day, I think that either one of those guys,
06:13they're a live bet play. I would not bet them pre-tournament
06:16at six or three-to-one. Scottie Scheffler still finishing in
06:20fourth in Memphis in the opening leg of the FedExCup
06:23playoffs. Andrew Schauffele firing a seven under in his
06:26final round on Sunday. Keep the top 30, make it to Atlanta and
06:30Eastlake for the Tour Championship for the guys on
06:33the horizon of getting to the third and final stop in the
06:36FedExCup playoffs. Give us some names to pay attention to this
06:39week out in Denver. All right, my early leans on the early
06:43line. Victor Hovland, he's back from the dead. He won the BMW
06:46last year. He was great last week. Top five and approach. Top
06:49five off the tee and we know the guy can score and the other
06:53guy is a hometown hero, Wyndham Clark. Yes, he's from Denver. If
06:57you're talking about a guy who knows all about altitude
07:00adjustments, here's your guy. He played very well last week.
07:03T-7 there at the St. Jude. So I love Wyndham Clark. He bombs it
07:07off the tee and he'll understand about these greens.
07:11Jack Nicklaus, all sorts of levels. It's going to be one of
07:13those complicated courses to score. Keith Stewart, we
07:18appreciate the time. Enjoy the week at altitude. More on the
07:21early line up next.