Jurus Jitu Mendongkrak Kinerja Industri Manufaktur
Presiden Joko Widodo telah memberikan instruksi di hadapan anggota kabinet Indonesia Maju, saat rapat sidang kabinet perdana di Istana Garuda Ibu Kota Nusantara. Presiden memberikan perhatian serius terkait tren penurunan data Purchasing Manager's Index atau PMI Manufaktur Indonesia yang terjadi dalam empat bulan terakhir.
S and P Global telah merilis PMI Manufaktur Indonesia bulan Juli 2024 sebesar 49,3. Level tersebut turun dibandingkan Juni 2024 yang berada pada angka 50,7. Dengan demikian, PMI Manufaktur Indonesia mengalami kontraksi untuk pertama kalinya sejak Agustus 2021, atau setelah bertahan dalam level ekspansi selama 34 bulan berturut-turut.
Lantas langkah dan strategi apa yang harus dilakukan Pemerintah dan pelaku usaha guna meningkatkan lagi kinerja PMI Manufaktur Indonesia kedepan?
S and P Global telah merilis PMI Manufaktur Indonesia bulan Juli 2024 sebesar 49,3. Level tersebut turun dibandingkan Juni 2024 yang berada pada angka 50,7. Dengan demikian, PMI Manufaktur Indonesia mengalami kontraksi untuk pertama kalinya sejak Agustus 2021, atau setelah bertahan dalam level ekspansi selama 34 bulan berturut-turut.
Lantas langkah dan strategi apa yang harus dilakukan Pemerintah dan pelaku usaha guna meningkatkan lagi kinerja PMI Manufaktur Indonesia kedepan?
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TVTranscript
00:00Updating Indonesia's Economic Situation
00:20Hello viewers, how are you today?
00:22Back again with me, Prasetyo Wibo, in Market Review,
00:26we're going to talk about Indonesia's economic movement.
00:28And this time, we're going to talk about the government's concern
00:32about the decline of Indonesian PMI manufacturers.
00:35Even President Joko Widodo gave instructions to his line
00:40to find the main reason why the decline of Indonesian PMI manufacturers
00:46in the past 4 months could happen.
00:49Let's start Market Review.
00:59President Joko Widodo gave instructions to his line
01:05to find the main reason why the decline of Indonesian PMI manufacturers.
01:10Indonesian PMI manufacturers have left the expansion level
01:13and are now in the contraction level with a value of 49.3.
01:19We want to find the main reason
01:24why the decline of Indonesian PMI manufacturers
01:29in the past 4 months could happen.
01:37We want to find the main reason why the decline of Indonesian PMI manufacturers
01:42in the past 4 months could happen.
01:49We want to find the main reason why the decline of Indonesian PMI manufacturers
01:52in the past 4 months could happen.
01:57That was the statement of President Joko Widodo
02:00to the members of Indonesia Onward Cabinet
02:02during the meeting of the Prime Minister's Cabinet
02:04in Garuda Palace, Nusantara.
02:06The President gave serious attention
02:08to the decline of the Purchasing Managers Index
02:11or Indonesian PMI manufacturers
02:13in the past 4 months.
02:17S&P Global has released the Purchasing Managers Index
02:20or Indonesian PMI manufacturers in July 2024
02:23with a value of 49.3.
02:26The level fell compared to June 2024
02:28which was at a value of 50.7.
02:31Thus, Indonesian PMI manufacturers
02:33experienced a contraction for the first time
02:35since August 2021
02:37or after staying in the expansion level
02:40for 34 consecutive months.
02:43Jakarta is covered by IDX Channel.
02:47Indonesian PMI Manufacturers Index
02:50In the next segment, we will tell you
02:52about the data or trends
02:54of the Indonesian PMI Manufacturers Index
02:58as you can see on your TV screen.
03:02We will look at the movement
03:04from April, May, June, and July
03:06for Indonesian PMI manufacturers
03:08as you can see on your TV screen.
03:11In April, 52.9 was recorded
03:14as the expansion level
03:16for Indonesian PMI manufacturers.
03:18In May, it dropped to 52.1.
03:22In June, it dropped to 50.7.
03:26In the past 3 months,
03:28there was a decrease even though
03:30it was still at the expansion level.
03:32However, in July 2024,
03:34Indonesian PMI manufacturers
03:36entered the contraction level
03:38or at 49.3.
03:40This is the concern of the current government
03:43to find ways and strategies
03:45to increase the performance
03:47of manufacturing industries.
03:49Is it the impact of the global economic condition?
03:51Because Indonesia is not the only country
03:53that has experienced a decrease in PMI manufacturers.
03:57In the next segment,
03:59we will look at the types of manufacturing industries
04:01in Indonesia.
04:03There are food and beverage industries,
04:05pharmaceutical industries,
04:08chemical, metal, and automotive industries,
04:12as well as electronics, textiles, and textile products.
04:16As we all know,
04:18there are several industries
04:20that have already experienced
04:22quite a lot of pressure
04:24resulting in the decision
04:26of the employment relationship
04:28or PHK that is carried out by the industry,
04:31such as textiles and textile products.
04:34And some others are still struggling
04:37to withstand the pressure.
04:39As we all know,
04:41there are a lot of foreign products
04:43that enter or flood the Indonesian market.
04:46So, what are the strategies
04:48or strategies
04:50that can boost the performance
04:52of Indonesian manufacturing industries?
04:55We will discuss it in the next segment.
04:58We are still trying to connect
05:00our sources to discuss
05:02in the Market Review program.
05:04We will be back in a moment.
05:10Indonesian Manufacturing Industries
05:13Manufacturing Industries
05:15The topic of our discussion today is related to
05:18the impact of manufacturing industries.
05:21We have already connected via Zoom
05:23with our comprehensive sources.
05:25We have Mr. Ajip Hamdani,
05:27Economic Policy Analyst
05:29from the Indonesian Employers Association.
05:31Good morning, Mr. Ajip.
05:33Good morning, Mr. Hamdani.
05:35Good morning, Mr. Ajip.
05:37Good morning, Mr. Ajip.
05:39Good morning, Mr. Bras.
05:40How are you, sir?
05:41I'm good.
05:43Next, we will have Mr. Yusuf Reddy Manilet,
05:45Economic Policy Analyst from Core Indonesia.
05:47Good morning, Mr. Yusuf.
05:48Good morning, Mr. Bras.
05:50How are you, sir?
05:51I'm good.
05:53Let's get to the review.
05:54This is interesting.
05:55As mentioned earlier,
05:56President Jokowi even raised his hand.
05:58This is a direct instruction from Mr. Ajip and Mr. Yusuf.
06:00If we look at it,
06:02if it's possible to review from APINDO,
06:04what is happening in our manufacturing industry?
06:07What is happening?
06:08Is it because of global conditions
06:10or there is also domestic domination?
06:13Please, Mr. Ajip.
06:14Mr. Bras, if we measure it,
06:16and the recommendation is the Purchase Manager's Index or PMI,
06:19and it is true that this month
06:21we experienced a construction below 50,
06:24actually the PMI reflects
06:26the demand side and the production side.
06:30It means that if we want to divide
06:32why we experienced a construction PMI,
06:34then we have to divide it into two sides.
06:37How is the supply side?
06:39How is the demand side?
06:40Let's talk about the supply first.
06:43Is it true that our supply experiences inefficiency
06:46or an increase in HTTP?
06:48As a result, the demand rises and has less competitiveness.
06:51And the second is the fluctuation of the value of rupiah.
06:54Of course, it will interfere with logistics
06:57and the circulation of goods,
06:59and especially for raw materials
07:02that originate from imports.
07:04Well, that's a matter of the supply side.
07:07But what is not less important
07:10is how we see the demand side,
07:13the demand side, Mr. Bras.
07:15At least we see there are two things
07:17why we experience a decline.
07:19The first is indeed the purchasing power of our society
07:21is rapidly decreasing.
07:23And even if we look at the data from
07:25the study from the University of Indonesia,
07:27it shows that more than 8.5 million people
07:31have experienced a class decline since 2019
07:34to 2003.
07:36This means that this is an indicator that
07:39the purchasing power of the society is indeed decreasing.
07:42And the second factor in talking about the demand side
07:45is the issue of competitiveness.
07:48For example, if there is a flood
07:50of imported products from China,
07:52it gives an extraordinary pressure
07:55on our demand.
07:57Because the demand in Indonesia tends to be pragmatic.
08:00Where the goods are more affordable and cheaper,
08:02they tend to shift.
08:04This problem needs to be analyzed comprehensively, Mr. Bras.
08:07If we want to make our PMI
08:10expand again in the coming months,
08:12it is how we balance the supply side
08:15and also how we balance the demand side.
08:18Of course, each needs its own policy, Mr. Bras.
08:20Okay, supply and demand,
08:22which is also a concern from APNO,
08:24that there is indeed an inefficiency in the domestic industry.
08:27In addition, there is a decline in the demand
08:30for the purchasing power of the society.
08:32On the other hand, there is a flood of imported products.
08:35What does Core Indonesia see?
08:37Is it real?
08:38Our industry is also in a slump right now.
08:41In other words, they are confused about what to do
08:43with the flood of imported products.
08:45Then the production cost cannot be pushed as far as possible.
08:49Please.
08:50Yes, so if we talk about the context of this year,
08:53as Mr. Ajib said,
08:55the condition is not so good,
08:57especially in the second quarter for the industry.
09:01Because I tried to detail a little
09:04what Mr. Ajib said.
09:05For example, from the demand side,
09:09we see that there is no longer a seasonal factor
09:12or a seasonal factor that can push demand
09:14to make consumption.
09:16Unlike the first quarter,
09:17which is still covered by the Ramadan factor,
09:22in the second quarter,
09:24the seasonal factor is relatively non-existent.
09:27So that's what pushes the weakening of domestic demand.
09:32At the same time,
09:33we also remember that in the second quarter,
09:36there was a weakening of the value of the rupee exchange.
09:39And this weakening of the value of the rupee exchange
09:41also has an impact on the increase in the production burden.
09:46Because some industries, as we know,
09:49are very relative,
09:50depending on the raw materials from abroad or imports.
09:54So when the rupee experiences a weakness,
09:57this will eventually have an impact on increasing the production burden.
10:01So entrepreneurs who then have a choice
10:04can actually cut the profit margin
10:07for not increasing the price.
10:08But I don't think everyone can do that.
10:12So this is what eventually has an impact
10:15on the price increase for some products.
10:18Because there was a change in the value of the rupee exchange.
10:21If we talk about a longer context,
10:24the problem of industrial competition is not a new issue.
10:29Because in the last 5-10 years,
10:32we have often faced the problem of deindustrialization,
10:37which happens slowly, unfortunately.
10:39Why did this happen?
10:41I think there are various factors,
10:43starting from the weakening of competition,
10:46because, for example, new players appear in certain industries.
10:50Then from a domestic point of view,
10:52we see that the investment in the industry sector is also relatively not so active.
10:58Especially for the industry sector, which is a tight-knit industry, for example.
11:03So I think this is what then adds
11:07a series of industrial competition problems.
11:11So we think this is actually not a new problem.
11:14We have always been able to address the problem of deindustrialization,
11:19which has often been faced by Indonesia in the last decade.
11:22Okay, but Indonesia is not alone.
11:24If we look at the decline in PMI manufacturing,
11:26there are several countries, Japan, Malaysia, China, also experiencing a decline.
11:30How do you see it?
11:31The pressure from the global, which makes the conditions worse,
11:34then the producing countries like China
11:36eventually look for new markets, including Indonesia.
11:39But we know that the government has safeguards here and there.
11:42Is it also not effective?
11:45Yes, so we do see it globally happening in several countries.
11:50Because I said it was a factor that happened in the context of this year only.
11:56So if we look at the current geopolitical problems,
12:01then the issues of certainty from the policy of the Acuan flower tribe,
12:06especially in developed countries,
12:08it also affects the demand side and the supply side of the industry itself.
12:13So, as I said earlier, it also has an impact.
12:17Now, if we talk about the context of Indonesia,
12:20the safeguarding is actually important,
12:24in order to protect the business actors in the country.
12:30Once again, we face various problems
12:36or various challenges that must be faced
12:39to then push for reindustrialization again.
12:43For example, if I try to elaborate further,
12:46related to the issue of funding, for example.
12:49If we look at it, for example,
12:51the business actors are quite challenged to get funding from within the country.
12:57Because the flower tribe in the country is relatively higher.
13:02And even now, the trend is actually still increasing
13:05because the BI is still taking or the policy stance is relatively tightening.
13:12So this is what then adds up.
13:14So when, for example, the funding is relatively limited,
13:18the business actors eventually find it difficult to get alternative funding.
13:23One of the alternative funding, for example, is to provide a letter of intent.
13:27But even the letter of intent, private business actors must then face
13:32the government that is also participating in providing the letter of intent.
13:36So the challenge is to push for a lot of reindustrialization
13:40and not just this year.
13:42Actually, it has happened before.
13:44Okay, Mr. Yusuf, this is interesting.
13:46Deindustrialization that you said needs to be reindustrialized again.
13:49Mr. Ajib, as a business actor, how do you see it?
13:51Is this deindustrialization really happening?
13:55Or is it more because of the supply-indemnity challenges
13:57so that our manufacturing industry is under pressure?
14:01Mr. Pras, we will enter the definition of deindustrialization
14:05if our measurements and recommendations are
14:07how to contribute the manufacturing sector and industry to the GDP.
14:12Which in fact, for the past 10 years, our ratio has continued to decline.
14:15Where we remember in 2014, our rate was above 20%,
14:18at a rate of 21% per capita in 2014.
14:21But then it continued to decline,
14:23even until the last year of 2023, it was only around 18%.
14:27This is indeed a challenge from the elected president, Prabowo Gibran,
14:31how in 2025 there will be a reindustrialization
14:35so that the ratio of GDP can increase above 20%.
14:38This is of course very challenging.
14:40But Mr. Pras, if we can compare it with the comparison of the countries
14:44that Mr. Pras mentioned earlier and Mr. Yusuf mentioned earlier.
14:47For example, let's talk about China and America.
14:50These are the two countries with the world's largest economic balance.
14:54And like that, they are also experiencing construction on the Purchase Managers Index.
14:58But don't forget, Mr. Pras,
15:00that there is a country here that they continue to be expansive,
15:03namely India, for example.
15:05And actually, speaking of China, India, America, and Indonesia have one thing in common,
15:09which is in the four largest countries with the largest population in the world.
15:13In a way, it's like that.
15:15And even if we look at the population of India, it has started to outnumber China.
15:21And then they can design their domestic economy.
15:24So they can build a very productive and constructive business ecosystem.
15:29So we can see, even their PMI,
15:32when China and America and even Japan fell,
15:36it turns out that India even rose.
15:38And if we look at the statement from the Minister of Finance, Mr. Mulyani Indrawati,
15:42that actually our PMI is very supported and helped by
15:47how bilateral cooperation with India.
15:49It means that this is an interesting data, Mr. Pras.
15:51That in the so-called geopolitical condition,
15:55which is unstable, the global condition is also tending to decline.
15:59But it turns out that some countries continue to be expansive and continue to rise.
16:03Indonesia must learn a lot in this matter, Mr. Pras.
16:06And I think Indonesia has a lot of resources
16:09and a lot of economic factors that we can continue to upgrade.
16:13So, as Mr. Pras said earlier,
16:16on the supply side, we can get incentives from government regulations.
16:21But on the demand side, we also experience improvement in purchasing power.
16:24That's about it, Mr. Pras.
16:25Okay, but is there still a fiscal space available
16:27if we do give one more incentive for the industry?
16:30The fiscal space is not the only policy that we expect, Mr. Pras.
16:34When it comes to government intervention, it can go through three things.
16:38When it comes to fiscal issues, it must be the first.
16:41Even the PPN 12% narrative should be put aside first.
16:45Because it again puts pressure on the purchasing power of the community
16:47and makes the business sector eager to make business orientation in 2025, for example.
16:55Then, for example, Mr. Yusuf also mentioned the issue of the level of the Bunga Acuan tribe.
17:006.25% as the level of the Bunga Acuan tribe in Patok by BI
17:05is a monetary policy that I think is quite burdensome.
17:08Where the HPP or the selling price of our products
17:10is very high and has little competition.
17:14And if we look at how our commercial credit can reach double digits and so on, Mr. Pras.
17:20That is the sector on the monetary side.
17:25So the meaning is, in addition to fiscal, we are also monetary, and one more thing, Mr. Pras.
17:28That we need regulations for the business world.
17:32Because if we look at the study from APINDOM,
17:35it shows that for scaling up the business, it takes 5 to 10 years, Mr. Pras.
17:41It means that a sustainability, a regulation is needed
17:45so that the business world can follow the existing regulations
17:48and they can go to class well before the regulations change.
17:51That's it, Mr. Pras.
17:52Okay, Mr. Haji, what is the strategy? We will discuss it later in the next segment.
17:55Mr. Yusuf, we will be back in a moment.
17:56Viewers, stay with us.
18:12Thank you for joining us in Market Review.
18:14Viewers, we will continue this interesting discussion
18:16with Mr. Ajib Hamnani and Mr. Yusuf Reddy Manilet.
18:19Okay, Mr. Ajib.
18:20So what if we talk about a strategy that must be done by the government
18:23in the transition period,
18:25with only a few months left to go,
18:28do we need innovation or is there something else that needs to be done?
18:32Please.
18:33Okay, let's look at the two sides of the coin.
18:36The government and the private sector.
18:38As for the government,
18:39we hope that the government can be comprehensive
18:42and can push for regulations that are pro-growth,
18:45especially those that are pro-industrial sector.
18:47Okay.
18:48Once again, we are talking about the comprehensive issue
18:50on the regulation of fiscal policy, monetary policy,
18:53as well as the pro-investment policy.
18:56Then, we are talking about the private sector,
18:58how we should invest in the private sector,
19:00how we should invest in the private sector,
19:02how we should invest in the private sector,
19:04is how we should build an ecosystem
19:07to mitigate deindustrialization.
19:09It should be how the industry also builds an ecosystem with the private sector.
19:14That's why in Apindo, we have a program called UMKM Merdeka.
19:18It's about how to build an ecosystem from upstream to downstream.
19:21As Mr. Yusuf said earlier,
19:23it must be built from upstream to downstream.
19:25Because how do we talk about efficiency in the downstream business,
19:29but in the upstream, the business is also inefficient.
19:31For example, food and drink production.
19:33It should be from the upstream.
19:34From agricultural production and so on,
19:36they can press the HPP,
19:38so that the raw materials required to find industrial materials are also cheap.
19:42This is the ecosystem business, Mr. Prasit.
19:44Yes.
19:45Once again, we don't just expect from the government sector,
19:48but also from the private sector,
19:50we also build and mitigate for deindustrialization.
19:54And I think Apindo can play that role to the maximum.
19:57That's all, Mr. Prasit.
19:58Okay.
19:59So, Mr. Yusuf, what do you think from the economic point of view?
20:01In this transition period,
20:02do we need a new policy or are we just waiting?
20:05Meanwhile, the focus of the government related to PMI,
20:09will it continue to decline or trend from PMI to our future manufacturer?
20:14Yes, if we refer to the document on fiscal policy principles,
20:18in 2025, the problem of industrialization has actually been accommodated.
20:23It means that the current government has tried to send a kind of policy
20:31that should be continued by the next government.
20:35So, I think on the positive side, the transition process is going well.
20:40So, if we look at the problem of deindustrialization,
20:44it will still be one of the problems that will be solved by the next government.
20:51So, if we look at the fiscal policy principles,
20:54for example, the problem of structural reformation will be one of the problems
21:00or policies that will be carried out by the new government.
21:04So, I think it is important,
21:06especially if we talk about, for example, investment efficiency.
21:11It is often related to high investment costs.
21:16So, this is what needs to be solved by the next government.
21:20In addition, I think if we look at the fiscal policy that is relatively expansive,
21:26I think it needs to be directed to become a kind of policy
21:30that pushes the ecosystem of the industry itself.
21:34For example, not only from the consumer or community side through social assistance,
21:40but also, for example, it is necessary to pay attention to the Ministry of Investment.
21:43It is necessary to pay attention to, for example, how to allocate spending to the Ministry of Industry.
21:48And whether it is in accordance with the program of the Ministry of Industry that wants to push industrialization.
21:54So, I think those are the things that need to be paid attention to in the transition project
21:58so that the problem of de-industrialization that we discussed at the beginning
22:03can turn into a re-industrialization agenda for the development of the industry
22:08and also the economy in general in the future.
22:12Okay, that's it.
22:13The important thing is how to focus and integrate together
22:16between the ministries to keep the pace of our manufacturing industry still maintained.
22:20From the supply of raw materials, then to increase the demand again in the community.
22:24Besides, we also fight against the illegal import products that enter Indonesia.
22:30Mr. Ajib, thank you very much for the time and sharing that you have delivered.
22:33Mr. Nady, thank you for the insight that you have given to the audience today.
22:37Congratulations on continuing your activities again.
22:39Good health, Mr. Ajib and Mr. Nady. Thank you.
22:41You're welcome, Mr. Pras.
22:43Dear viewers, don't leave your seat because we will be right back
22:47with another interesting topic. Stay tuned.