Will this Asteroid DESTROY Earth in 2038 _ Dhruv Rathee
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00:00Namaskar Friends!
00:01On 13th April, 2029,
00:03an asteroid apophis bigger than 1000 feet
00:06will pass very very close to the earth.
00:14If it collides with the earth,
00:16it will be such a devastation
00:18that has never been seen in the history of humans.
00:20A million times more energy will be released
00:22from the bomb dropped on Hiroshima.
00:25Tsunami waves will rise 100 meters high
00:31and the entire city will be cleansed.
00:33But not only that,
00:34on 12th July, 2038,
00:36another asteroid can collide with the earth.
00:38And look at this post,
00:39there is a 72% chance of it colliding.
00:42NASA has already issued an alert
00:44and has started its planetary defense exercise.
00:47Look at this post ahead,
00:49it's only a few weeks old.
00:50After NASA's chief,
00:51now ISRO's chief has given a warning.
00:53We can all go extinct.
00:55Oh my God!
00:56An earth-destroying asteroid
00:57is rapidly approaching the earth.
01:00ISRO chief says
01:01it's an option to migrate to Mars
01:03and all global space agencies are working on it.
01:07How much truth is there in these news?
01:09Which are the most dangerous asteroids for the earth?
01:13And what is NASA's plan here?
01:15Let's understand all this in depth
01:17in today's video.
01:23Asteroids
01:27Asteroids are also called planetoids.
01:30Because they are like small planets.
01:32They are basically some big stones
01:34that are orbiting in space.
01:35They can be 10-20 meters in size
01:37and can also be 100-200 kilometers.
01:40The smallest asteroid that exists
01:42is only 2 meters wide.
01:44And the largest is called Ceres.
01:46940 kilometers in diameter.
01:48Most of the asteroids in our solar system
01:51are found in the asteroid belt
01:53between Mars and Jupiter.
01:54Where there are millions of asteroids.
01:57The drawing of the asteroid belt
01:59in our textbooks is done like this.
02:02And by looking at it,
02:03you might think that
02:04there are so many asteroids
02:05orbiting around each other.
02:06But in reality,
02:07the average distance between
02:09any two asteroids
02:10is more than 1 million kilometers.
02:13Now what happens is
02:14sometimes these asteroids
02:15move away from this belt
02:17and come close to the earth.
02:19In such cases,
02:20we call them near-earth objects.
02:22In short, they are called NEOs.
02:25NEOs are not just asteroids.
02:27They can also be comets,
02:28meteors, meteorites,
02:30and meteoroids.
02:32You might ask,
02:33what is the difference in all this?
02:34Friends,
02:35they are all pieces of stone
02:37that are flying in space.
02:38But the way we define them,
02:40there is a difference.
02:41For example,
02:42asteroids are made of stone and metal.
02:44Comets are made of
02:45ice, stone, and dust.
02:47They are also called dirty snowballs.
02:49Asteroids are found
02:50between Mars and Jupiter
02:51in the asteroid belt.
02:52Comets are found
02:53in the Kuiper belt.
02:54This belt is in front of Neptune
02:56and is far away in the solar system.
02:57When comets fly in space,
02:59they have a tail
03:01that is not seen in asteroids.
03:02Typically,
03:03the size of the comet
03:04can be very large.
03:05It can be 1 to 10 kilometers.
03:06And whenever a comet
03:07passes near the earth,
03:09it can be easily seen
03:10with the naked eye.
03:11But to see asteroids,
03:12telescopes are needed
03:14in most cases.
03:15In case of danger for us,
03:17a comet is far more dangerous
03:18than an asteroid.
03:19Because first of all,
03:20the speed of a comet
03:21is twice that of an asteroid.
03:23And secondly,
03:24the warning time is less.
03:25Unfortunately,
03:26we won't know
03:27when a comet will suddenly
03:28impact the earth.
03:31This was also shown
03:32in the film,
03:33Don't Look Up.
03:34In this film,
03:35it is shown
03:36that a 6-month warning time
03:37is given
03:38when a comet is about
03:39to hit the earth
03:40and how the government
03:41and space agencies
03:42react to it.
03:44A meteorite
03:45is a small piece
03:46of an asteroid or comet.
03:48When a meteorite
03:49comes close to the earth
03:50and enters our atmosphere,
03:52we call it a meteor.
03:54When it happens,
03:55it burns very fast
03:56and we see
03:57a streak of light.
03:59It is also called
04:00a shooting star
04:01if you've ever seen it
04:02in the sky.
04:03When it is in large numbers,
04:04it is called a meteor shower.
04:05And if a meteor
04:07crosses the atmosphere
04:09and falls on the earth,
04:11it is called a meteorite.
04:13This is the only difference.
04:14The important thing
04:15for us here
04:16is NEOs.
04:17Asteroids and comets
04:19that pass by the earth
04:21and cause us to be in danger
04:23of crashing the earth
04:25and destroying the world.
04:27This danger is justified
04:28because this has happened
04:29to dinosaurs
04:3066 million years ago.
04:38If they can go extinct,
04:39so can we.
04:41But before measuring
04:42and moving forward,
04:43I would like to say one thing.
04:45If you take your news
04:46from such accounts
04:47on Instagram and Facebook,
04:49it would be better
04:50if you stop following news.
04:52Because this news
04:53about the 2038 asteroid strike
04:55is completely fake.
04:59If you want to follow
05:00some pages on Instagram
05:01for news,
05:02there are many options
05:03like The Hindu,
05:04Indian Express,
05:05Scroll.in, The Wire,
05:06News Laundry.
05:07Even our mainstream
05:08news websites.
05:09Although the standard
05:10of Indian media
05:11doesn't spread
05:12lies of this level.
05:14Because see,
05:15Times of India
05:16has also written an article
05:17on this.
05:18In the headline,
05:19NASA warns that
05:20a planet-sized asteroid
05:21has a 72% chance
05:22of impacting earth.
05:24This headline is wrong.
05:25It's a click-baity headline.
05:26But if you read
05:27the first line
05:28of the article,
05:29this has been
05:30clarified there.
05:32NASA recently conducted
05:33a hypothetical exercise
05:35to assess planet's preparedness
05:36against an asteroid impact.
05:38Actually, this 72% chance
05:40is not a finding
05:41or a result.
05:42This is a hypothetical
05:43imaginary scenario
05:44created by NASA.
05:46This was an exercise
05:47that if today we get to know
05:49that in July 2038,
05:51an asteroid is going
05:52to hit the earth,
05:54then what can we do?
05:56This was a mock test
05:57in which more than 100
05:58experts participated
05:59from different organizations.
06:01NASA, European Space Agency,
06:02UK Space Agency,
06:04United Nations Office
06:05of Outer Space Affairs.
06:06Everyone discussed
06:07that if an asteroid
06:09hits the earth
06:10after 14 years,
06:11then what steps
06:12will we take
06:13to stop it?
06:14On June 20, 2024,
06:15NASA released this report
06:16to the public
06:17in which some
06:18very interesting things
06:19have been told.
06:20We will talk about them
06:21later in the video.
06:22But before that,
06:23I would like to tell you
06:24that the date of 2029,
06:25which I talked about
06:26at the beginning of the video,
06:27that date is not
06:28hypothetical.
06:29An apophis asteroid
06:30bigger than 1000 feet
06:31really exists.
06:33And this asteroid
06:34on April 13, 2029,
06:36will pass very,
06:37very close to the earth.
06:39Only 30,000 km away.
06:41It is less than
06:42many geostationary
06:43satellites.
06:44NASA released
06:45a video in which
06:46the exact path
06:47of this apophis asteroid
06:48has been shown.
06:50After 5 years from today,
06:51the day this asteroid
06:52will pass by the earth,
06:53you won't even need
06:54a telescope
06:55to see it.
06:56You will be able
06:57to see it directly
06:58with your eyes at night.
06:59So the question arises
07:00that what is the chance
07:01that this asteroid
07:02will actually
07:03collide with the earth?
07:04The answer is
07:050%.
07:08In 2004,
07:09when this asteroid
07:10was discovered
07:11for the first time
07:12by humans,
07:13there was a ruckus
07:14all over the world.
07:15Because the first
07:16observations that were
07:17done, they said
07:18that there is a
07:192.7% chance
07:20that the asteroid
07:21will collide with the
07:22earth in 2029.
07:23Now, 2.7% chance
07:24is not that big.
07:25It means
07:26there is a 97%
07:27chance that it
07:28will not collide.
07:29But when the
07:30danger is so big,
07:31then 2% chance
07:32is also very scary.
07:33So in those years,
07:34it was called
07:35the city killer,
07:36the most dangerous
07:37asteroid.
07:38This is where
07:39it got its name,
07:40Apophis.
07:41Apophis is a very
07:42big snake in
07:43Egyptian mythology
07:44that destroys everything.
07:45It is also called
07:46the God of Chaos.
07:47But the good news is
07:48that when scientists
07:49did more observations
07:50of this asteroid,
07:51they found out
07:52that in reality,
07:53there is a 0% chance
07:54that it will collide.
07:55A few years later,
07:56scientists thought
07:57that not in 2029
07:58but when it will
07:59come back to earth,
08:00then the danger
08:01can increase.
08:02Like in 2036
08:03or in 2068.
08:04Because in 2029,
08:05when it will pass
08:06very close to the earth,
08:07then it will pass
08:08through a keyhole area.
08:09In space,
08:10keyholes are
08:11those places
08:12which are so close
08:13to the earth
08:14where an asteroid
08:15will affect
08:16the gravitational
08:17force of the earth.
08:18When in 2029,
08:19this asteroid will
08:20come so close to
08:21the earth,
08:22then it will pass
08:23through a keyhole
08:24region,
08:25due to which
08:26its orbit will
08:27change.
08:28Due to the
08:29gravitation of
08:30the earth,
08:31its orbit will
08:32change.
08:33But in 2029,
08:34this is not
08:35a danger.
08:36NASA has
08:37confidently said
08:38that in the next
08:39100 years,
08:40this asteroid
08:41will never collide
08:42with the earth.
08:43For this reason,
08:44it has been
08:45removed from
08:46the risk list
08:47of near-earth
08:48objects.
08:49Now you will
08:50say, what is this?
08:51Is there a risk
08:52list?
08:53Of course,
08:54there is.
08:55Space agencies
08:56around the world
08:57have made a
08:58risk list
08:59of the most
09:00dangerous asteroids
09:01in terms of
09:02their impact
09:03date and time.
09:04What is the
09:05probability of
09:06colliding with
09:07them?
09:08Look at the
09:09section of
09:10IPMAX.
09:11Maximum
09:12probability is
09:13written here.
09:14And in the
09:15section at the
09:16back, the
09:17diameter is
09:18written as
09:19how big
09:20this asteroid
09:21or comet
09:22is.
09:23This is the
09:24wonder of
09:25data science
09:26that today
09:27we can
09:28predict the
09:29paths of
09:30space.
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10:36Let's come back
10:37to our topic
10:38and in this
10:39risk list,
10:40let's look at
10:41the top 3
10:42most dangerous
10:43asteroids in
10:44detail.
10:45Number 1
10:46is 2023
10:47VD3 asteroid.
10:48This 2023
10:49in its name
10:50tells us that
10:51this asteroid
10:52was discovered
10:53in 2023.
10:54It is a
10:55very small asteroid
10:56in size.
10:57The probability
10:58to hit it
10:59is 1 in
11:00387.
11:01That is
11:020.25%
11:03chance to
11:04hit it.
11:05This is
11:06actually a
11:07very big
11:08chance.
11:09This is the
11:10reason why
11:11it is on
11:12number 1
11:13in the
11:14list.
11:15But
11:16because its
11:17size is
11:18very small,
11:19it is not
11:20that dangerous.
11:21The chances
11:22are that
11:23even if it
11:24hits the
11:25earth,
11:26the
11:27meteor will
11:28blast the
11:29city.
11:30It came
11:31out of
11:32nowhere.
11:33A bright
11:34speck in the
11:35sky, soon
11:36streaking across
11:37the horizon
11:38followed by
11:39an almost
11:40apocalyptic
11:41scene.
11:42A blinding
11:43flash of light
11:44and then
11:45all hell
11:46broke loose.
11:47The
11:48diameter of
11:49that meteor
11:50was around
11:5120 meters
11:52and a
11:53powerful
11:54shock wave
11:55that
11:56nearly
11:571,500 people
11:58were injured.
11:59Most of
12:00them suffered
12:01cuts from
12:02shattered
12:03windows.
12:04Number 2
12:05in the
12:06risk list
12:07is the
12:081979 XB
12:09Asteroid.
12:10Its
12:11diameter is
12:12400-900
12:13meters.
12:14It
12:15will
12:16potentially
12:17hit the
12:18Earth
12:19on December
12:2012,
12:212056.
12:22The
12:23probability
12:24of
12:25impact
12:26is 1
12:27in 6,711.
12:28This
12:29is a
12:300.01%
12:31chance
12:32of collision.
12:33You
12:34can see
12:35that all
12:36the scientists
12:37working in
12:38the space
12:39agencies are
12:40doing a
12:41great job
12:42because
12:43even a
12:44small
12:45risk like
12:46this
12:47can
12:48cause
12:49a
12:50huge
12:51impact.
12:52The
12:53scientists
12:54don't
12:55want to
12:56even
12:57take a
12:58small
12:59risk for
13:00the
13:01Earth.
13:02The
13:03only problem
13:04is that
13:05these are
13:06the only
13:07asteroids we
13:08have discovered
13:09so far.
13:10Maybe
13:11more asteroids
13:12will be
13:13discovered
13:14in the
13:15future.
13:16Comets
13:17don't have
13:18a good
13:19calculated
13:20trajectory.
13:21We
13:22don't
13:23even
13:24do a
13:25good
13:26job.
13:27I would
13:28like to
13:29tell you
13:30about the
13:314 most
13:32popular
13:33detection
13:34projects.
13:35The
13:36first one
13:37is Linear
13:38Lincoln
13:39Near-Earth
13:40Asteroid
13:41Research.
13:42It
13:43was started
13:44in 1996
13:45and it
13:46is a
13:47collaboration
13:48between
13:49NASA
13:50and MIT
13:51to
13:52find
13:53asteroids.
13:54The
13:55second one
13:56is CSS
13:57Catalina
13:58Sky Survey.
13:59It was
14:00established
14:01in 1998
14:02by the
14:03University of
14:04Arizona
14:05and it
14:06uses
14:07two
14:08telescopes.
14:09Its
14:10measurements
14:11are so
14:12precise that
14:13in 2008,
14:14it found
14:15an asteroid
14:16that was
14:17only 4
14:18meters in
14:19diameter.
14:20The
14:21third one
14:22is Pan
14:23Stars
14:24Panoramic
14:25Survey
14:26Telescope
14:27and Rapid
14:28Response
14:29System.
14:30It is
14:31located in
14:32the Pacific
14:33Ocean
14:34and it
14:35uses the
14:36world's
14:37largest
14:38digital
14:39cameras
14:40to
14:41find
14:42asteroids.
14:43The
14:44images
14:45captured
14:46by this
14:47camera are
14:481.4
14:49meters.
14:50If we
14:51couldn't find
14:52any of the
14:53other systems
14:54and
14:55accidentally
14:56missed
14:57an asteroid,
14:58it would
14:59give us
15:00a warning
15:01at the
15:02last minute.
15:03This
15:04system can
15:05scan the
15:06sky twice
15:07every night
15:08for any
15:09danger.
15:10The
15:11defense
15:12system of
15:13the Earth
15:14is very
15:15strong.
15:16But
15:17mistakes
15:18with the meteor.
15:19This 20-metre-high meteor
15:20couldn't detect any system on time.
15:23That's why for such scenarios,
15:24the civil defence component becomes very important.
15:26NASA has talked about this
15:28in its mock test report
15:30on page number 12.
15:31If a small asteroid or meteor
15:33is going to collide somewhere,
15:34it is very important that at the right time,
15:36disaster management plans
15:38should be activated with international coordination.
15:41But what will happen if a big asteroid
15:43is going to collide?
15:46There are three strategies to deal with it.
15:49First, kinetic methods.
15:51Second, slow push and pull methods.
15:53And third, nuclear methods.
15:55Out of these three,
15:56kinetic method is the only method
15:58that has been successfully tested in real life.
16:00In this, we send a spacecraft
16:02to collide with an asteroid
16:04and change its orbit.
16:07It's a very simple and effective method.
16:09Its practical experiment was done two years ago
16:12in NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test.
16:15On 26th September, 2022,
16:17a 170-metre-tall dimorphous asteroid
16:19was present somewhere in space,
16:21far away from Earth.
16:22And NASA's spacecraft was taken
16:24and crashed on it.
16:31We were not in any danger from this asteroid.
16:33It was just an experiment
16:35to see if doing this
16:37really changes the orbit of the asteroid
16:39or not.
16:40A video of the spacecraft was also taken
16:42which you can see on the screen.
16:43After this, when NASA saw the results,
16:45the asteroid's orbit was actually changed.
16:47The same experiment is going to be done
16:49by China's National Space Agency next year.
16:51In 2025, they will take a 30-metre-tall asteroid
16:54and collide with it
16:56and try to change its orbit.
16:58The second method is slow push and pull.
17:01In this, we slowly change the orbit of the asteroid.
17:04Solar energy can be used for this.
17:06A spacecraft goes near the asteroid
17:08and concentrates the sun's rays on the asteroid
17:11and vaporizes a part of the asteroid.
17:14Due to this reaction, a small amount of gas will be released
17:17which will cause a slight thrust on the asteroid.
17:19And slowly, the asteroid will change its orbit.
17:22This happens naturally on asteroids
17:24when any asteroid passes near the sun.
17:27But when this is done by sending a spacecraft,
17:29the fear is that when the vaporization
17:31of the stone present on the asteroid happens,
17:34the stone may interfere with the optical system
17:36of the spacecraft.
17:38The third method is nuclear.
17:40Literally, send a nuclear bomb to the spacecraft
17:42and destroy the asteroid.
17:49It sounds like a movie,
17:51but realistically, it may never be used.
17:53There are two reasons for this.
17:55First, using a nuclear bomb in space
17:57can cause a lot of legal, international,
17:59geopolitical problems.
18:01And second, when an asteroid is destroyed,
18:04its pieces will scatter all over.
18:07And we don't know which orbit those pieces will follow.
18:10It is possible that a piece may fall on the earth
18:13due to its explosion.
18:15But this method is still under consideration
18:17because if an asteroid is very large,
18:20like if an asteroid is more than 10 km in size,
18:23the same size that extincted the dinosaurs,
18:27then other methods may not work so well
18:29because the size of the asteroid itself is so large.
18:32The mock test that NASA conducted a few months ago
18:34talked about all these things.
18:36Exactly how to deal with an asteroid
18:39that is going to hit the earth after 14 years
18:42and has a chance of 72%.
18:44The good news is that 81% of the participants
18:47who were participating in this mock experiment
18:49believed that they were ready to deal with such a danger.
18:53There are only a few gaps
18:55that various scientists have raised
18:57regarding such scenarios.
18:58For example, one gap was mentioned
19:00that we have only tried one method so far.
19:03The kinetic method.
19:04We should test this kinetic method many times in the future
19:07so that we can be sure that it will work.
19:10This was the 5th meeting
19:12to discuss such a hypothetical asteroid strike.
19:15Before this,
19:16such meetings were held in 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2022.
19:20It was named as
19:21Planetary Defense Interagency Tabletop Exercise.
19:24And in the John Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory,
19:27about 100 experts were found.
19:29So all in all,
19:30there is nothing to worry about.
19:32Firstly,
19:33there is no such big asteroid in the next 100 years
19:35which has a 0.01% possibility of hitting the earth.
19:39Secondly,
19:40our earth's defense systems
19:42are becoming more advanced with time.
19:44In the year 2028,
19:45NASA will launch a space telescope
19:48named Near Earth Object Surveyor.
19:50It will detect such asteroids
19:51while being outside the earth.
19:53So our detection systems will improve even more.
19:56And thirdly,
19:57if we find an asteroid
19:58which can come and hit the earth,
20:01then we already have systems to stop it.
20:05So stop believing these fake news
20:07and if you are interested in the topic of space,
20:10then I have made many more videos on space.
20:12There is a complete playlist.
20:13You can click here and watch it.
20:15Like this video on wormholes.
20:18How interstellar time travel can be possible through wormholes.
20:21You can click here and watch it.
20:23And the link to Scalar's live masterclass
20:25can be found in the description below.
20:27Thank you very much.
20:30NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology