Punto De Vista: Publiko, sang ayon at sumusuporta sa pamamahala ni PBBM ayon sa survey
Punto De Vista: Publiko, sang ayon at sumusuporta sa pamamahala ni PBBM ayon sa survey
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00:00It came out in a survey that more Filipinos are supporting President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.
00:06That's what Professor Antonio Contreras will discuss in Punto de Vista, Professor.
00:18Good morning, Dayan, and to all the viewers this morning,
00:23and to all of you in the studio.
00:26You're right, the support for President R. Marcos and his administration increased.
00:32From 31% of the last survey of OCTA Research, this one is 36%.
00:38The survey was conducted from June 26 to July 1, and the sample is 1,200 randomly selected respondents.
00:48So from 31%, it became 36%.
00:52Meanwhile, the support for former President Duterte and Vice President Sarang Duterte decreased by 20%.
01:01Now, it's only 16%, down 4%.
01:05The support for the opposition increased from 4% to 5%.
01:12So if we can see, the takeaway here is that the support for the government increased.
01:19In these three political divisions, because now our landscape is divided into three,
01:28the administration of President Marcos, the opposition, and the force of the Dutertes.
01:35The support for President Marcos and his administration increased,
01:39and the support for the opposition also increased,
01:41but the support for the Dutertes decreased.
01:46We can understand this because the public did not like the movement of the Dutertes.
01:52This includes their support for China,
01:58their high support for Apollo Kibuloy,
02:05and also the statements that are coming out to the Vice President.
02:10So this is one of the signs that the public does not like
02:15what the Dutertes are doing.
02:20And this is good news for the President and his administration.
02:23This means that the support of the people for the changes in the administration is increasing.
02:30The changes in the administration will be approved later.
02:35So that's the first takeaway.
02:37But if we look at it, the majority of people did not favor one of these camps.
02:43Because there is still a large percentage, 42%, in the middle.
02:48There, 31% said that they do not favor any of the camps.
02:54And there are 11% who say that they do not know,
02:58they have not yet decided where they will favor.
03:02So these are called the independents.
03:04These are called the swing voters or swing citizens.
03:09And to think that their majority,
03:11they are higher than the percentage of support they received from the government.
03:1542% compared to 36% of the pro-Marcos or pro-administration.
03:21This is a very dynamic political landscape.
03:27The midterm elections will be held in 2025.
03:33This 42%, even though it shrank a bit,
03:36because in the last survey, the undecided or independents reached 45%,
03:42now it became 42%, down by 3%.
03:45So it shrank.
03:46But even so, this is very rich to fight three camps.
03:52This is going to be very, very significant.
03:55The 42% will determine who is the majority and who is the minority in the Senate or House.
04:02Who is the support that will go to those.
04:05Although based on historical data,
04:07that will also break according to those who made decisions.
04:11So the probability, if we look at science,
04:14more will go to the administration.
04:17Especially the Filipinos who do not want to lose,
04:20they want to go to victory.
04:22But even so, our politics is exciting.
04:26The opposition should not lose hope even if they are only 5%.
04:33Because if they work properly,
04:35maybe they can also get a big chunk, not for the majority,
04:39but to increase the number of seats in the Senate and the House.
04:43Because the 42% is big.
04:45For a political strategist, that is a good target.
04:49That's a very fertile area to mine.
04:52Because talking about elections is not to appeal to your base.
04:58Talking about elections is how do you convert.
05:02Conversion is what we are talking about here.
05:04How do you convert those who don't like you or those who are undecided to go to you.
05:09And 42% is a big number to work on.
05:13Although for now, there is a lot of support in the administration of President Marcos.
05:19We greet the President for this event
05:23that his support is strong and strong.
05:26Even though it did not reach 50%,
05:29this is still the plurality of the decision-makers.
05:32And maybe this is also a reminder to the Duterte
05:35that they should reflect
05:37on what is wrong with what they are doing
05:39because their approval rating went down.
05:43So that's my point of view this morning.
05:47Good morning.
05:50Thank you very much, Professor Contreras.