MLB Best Bets for Wednesday's Slate | Valdez's near no-hitter
Transcript
00:00A near-no-hitter last night in Arlington, courtesy of Frambois Valdez against the Rangers.
00:05The Lone Star State showdown between the Astros and the Rangers.
00:10Houston wins game number two. Texas won game number one.
00:15It is game number three today.
00:17Yusei Kikuchi getting a start for the Astros.
00:21He was traded for at the deadline last week.
00:24He takes on the Rangers today.
00:25Houston a favorite in Arlington at minus 132.
00:29So, no, the over-under is nine.
00:31What do you like here in this matchup between Houston and Texas?
00:36I know that Houston gave up a lot to get him,
00:38but give me a little rock-and-roll Kikuchi coup here to get another win here.
00:42I like the first five on the money line here.
00:44Why? Mostly because Texas is starting Jose Ureña,
00:47who is not a major league starter anymore.
00:49If you look at some of the numbers he's had, particularly his numbers at home,
00:51they've all come out of the bullpen.
00:53As a starter this year, he's been ineffective.
00:55When you ask him to go two and three innings, for the most part,
00:57in a non-relief role, he has been less than stellar, to say the least, here.
01:02I know the Houston Bats don't hit all that much on the road, but guess what?
01:05The Texas Bats don't hit anywhere on planet Earth in 2024.
01:09So, give me Kikuchi here and the Astros' first five money line
01:14in a very manageable number.
01:16Let's keep it down in the south here, Milwaukee and Atlanta.
01:18Chris Hale's going to take the mound to match up against Freddie Peralta,
01:21and I guess Chris Hale will have to go nine innings,
01:23no-hit baseball, no-run baseball, to give the Atlanta Bats a chance
01:27to try to catch up.
01:28They've been dormant at the plate.
01:30So, the question today is a minus-164 favorite for Atlanta.
01:33Does that hold up against Milwaukee?
01:35Because, quite frankly, it's hard to bet baseball teams
01:37that just can't score runs right now, Mark.
01:40Yeah, the Braves are the team—
01:42the Braves are the girl that says she's going to call you back,
01:44but never actually calls, right?
01:46Like, I mean, that's—
01:47All been there, huh?
01:49Yeah, we've all been there.
01:51You know, he says,
01:52we're all calling you tomorrow, and the next thing you know,
01:54just nothing, zero, bagel, nothing happens.
01:56And the Braves have been doing that to us all season long.
01:59But Chris Hale, all season long, has been absolutely outstanding.
02:02Look, he's gone eight consecutive starts with two runs or less allowed,
02:0514 of his last 15 starts dating back to the end of April
02:09with two runs or less allowed by Chris Hale.
02:13So, he's going to have to be that stellar.
02:15Against the Milwaukee team, guys,
02:17that is bottom six in batting average,
02:19OPS, NWRC Plus, on the road against left-handers.
02:23The Brewers stink against lefties on the road here.
02:26Give me the Braves. First five, minus a half run.
02:28Their backs don't have to do much,
02:30theoretically, against Freddy Peralta.
02:33But if they push across two or three here in the first five,
02:35maybe get a ball to leave the ballpark,
02:37that should be enough for Chris Hale to hold it down
02:39through the first five innings.
02:41The Brew crew did lose at home last week
02:43in Milwaukee a midweek series to these Atlanta Braves
02:47who now ride a three-game skid into today.
02:50But the ace in Atlanta, Chris Hale, is on the bump.
02:52He is the National League Cy Young favorite at plus 110.
02:56Zach Wheeler, second-best number from Philadelphia,
02:58plus 220.
03:00Paul Skeen's third-best price out of Pittsburgh at plus 240.
03:04A couple of postponements yesterday
03:06that made it slightly less than a full slate
03:08in Major League Baseball.
03:10In Cleveland, between the Diamondbacks,
03:12one of the hottest teams in MLB in the American League's best,
03:16in the Guardians, and of course, in the Bronx.
03:19Now, Zeno, the weather report the next few days
03:21in the greater New York City area is not kind to baseball.
03:25We could see some showers today,
03:27but a doubleheader is scheduled
03:28between the Yankees and the Angels.
03:31And Luis Gil gets the start for game number one,
03:34the scheduled starter yesterday for the postponement.
03:37The Yankees nearly a $3 favorite at minus 290.
03:41What do we expect out of our guy,
03:42Luis Gil, today against the Halos?
03:45All right, before I get to Luis Gil,
03:46can we not bury the lead here
03:48in case anybody, like, looked at both prices
03:50for the doubleheader?
03:51Will freakin' Warren is a minus 265.
03:55Who the hell is Will Warren?
03:57I actually had to Google.
03:58He got the win last week.
04:00I understand that.
04:01That's not like, I'm just, it's so innocuous.
04:03Why, there's not a world
04:05where Will Warren is a minus 265 favorite.
04:07Can we just leave that on the surface?
04:09You can't back the Angels,
04:11but there's no way you can back any version
04:12of the Yankees with Will Warren on the mound.
04:14Can you do it with Luis Gil on the mound?
04:16Sure you can, because whether he's Luis Gil
04:18or Lucas Gil, the Yankees are gonna win
04:20when he pitches.
04:21You're good enough for them
04:23to steal the first game of this series.
04:24I, you know, again, again,
04:25some of it depends if they even get the second game in here,
04:28but nonetheless, I back the Yankees.
04:31And oh, by the way, just a note
04:33on the Dimebacks and Guardians as you see the graphic.
04:35The Guardians have not lost three,
04:38four consecutive games all season.
04:40This is just their second in-home losing streak
04:43of the year.
04:45I had a huge 5% play on the Guardians last night
04:47to not lose four in a row.
04:48Obviously it got rained out.
04:50I wouldn't touch it today.
04:51It's a little sketchy with a doubleheader here,
04:53Benny and Donny.
04:54Yeah.
04:55Pretty close to a pick them in the first one.
04:57The Slenderman, Brandon Fopp gets the start for Arizona.
05:00The Dimebacks have won 10 of their last 12.
05:04And despite being called Blake Lively
05:06on a broadcast by Gary Cohen,
05:09and as said why earlier this week,
05:11Ben Lively gets the start for Cleveland.
05:13In the opener, Zeno, we appreciate the time.
05:16Thank you for being here.
05:17Hour three up next on The Early Rockets
05:19as we touch them all as well in daily basis.
05:27A celebratory experience last night
05:31for the Chicago White Sox.
05:33Snapping a 21 game losing skid
05:36with a 5-1 victory against Oakland yesterday in Oakland.
05:41Oakland, so the 21 game losing streak, Craig,
05:44it matched the longest in MLB history since 1988.
05:48It tied the longest in American League history
05:51alongside the Baltimore Orioles
05:53that lost the first 21 games of their 1988 season,
05:57came to a close.
05:58Yippee!
06:00The Southsiders still south of 500 by 60 games.
06:05Craig, it is terrible.
06:06It is dismal this year for the White Sox.
06:10How do you describe the current landscape
06:12that is this White Sox franchise?
06:16They made a lot of changes in the off season,
06:18and I think that what you're probably gonna have to do
06:23is put some of this on the previous people
06:25that were running things there.
06:27I think it's only fair to say
06:29that Kenny Williams, his time was up,
06:31Rick Hahn, his time was up.
06:33Both gentlemen did a fine job
06:35as general managers through the years,
06:36but very clearly toward the end did not
06:39to have this team in this kind of shape.
06:41Also, Pedro Griffo is probably gonna end up losing his job.
06:45You can't lose as many games as he did
06:47in order to get there.
06:49And the White Sox can't even get the number one pick
06:51in the draft for all of this,
06:52which is sort of crazy to think
06:54that they're not even eligible
06:55because of the new CBA rules with the lottery.
06:57But I think more than anything else,
06:59I'm happy that the story is over
07:01because I'm not gonna necessarily call out
07:03any other media or broadcast or radio shows.
07:06But Ben, I gotta tell you,
07:07there's nothing more annoying
07:08than seeing some of these national shows
07:11discussing the White Sox
07:13when I know for a fact
07:14they have not talked baseball in months on their shows
07:17and choose the White Sox to be the tipping point here
07:20as what they're gonna talk about,
07:22you know, to get some attention here.
07:23So for me, I'm very happy that it's over.
07:25That's one of the reasons why.
07:26I'm not saying that baseball moves the needle
07:28like the other sports, because I know it does not.
07:30I'm not trying to say that it does.
07:31But if you haven't talked baseball at all, like ever,
07:34and then you're just gonna pick on these guys,
07:37I just, I don't know.
07:38Something about that to me seems wrong.
07:41Maybe a win streak on the horizon here for the White Sox.
07:44I'll tell you one scene that sort of changed their season
07:46over the past month and a half.
07:47That's been the Houston Astros pick up a victory yesterday.
07:49Now 58 and 55 on the season.
07:51Frambois Valdez, outstanding as usual.
07:54One out away from another no hitter.
07:55Corey Seager steps in, drops a two run home run,
07:58but they get the ultimate win
07:59and that's what they came for.
08:01Great performance.
08:01Eight and two thirds innings pitch,
08:03two earned runs, five Ks, three walks.
08:05Frambois Valdez almost again, perfect here with a no hitter.
08:08But I like what I see out of the Astros.
08:10And for me, Craig, I think they're gonna end up
08:11winning the NL West at this point.
08:14Yeah, I mean, look, Donnie, I mean, it could happen.
08:16I mean, they're doing this without Kyle Tucker.
08:18And offensively, while all numbers are down
08:20across baseball, you know, really,
08:22when you look at Jordan Alvarez,
08:24he's been the only consistent performer.
08:26I guess Altuve's numbers are above average,
08:28given the numbers that we've seen in baseball this season.
08:32But it's probably gonna be on the arm of Valdez
08:34to get farther than, let's say,
08:35the first round of the playoffs.
08:36We saw that in the World Series a couple of years ago.
08:39And by the way, has there been any pitcher
08:41better than Valdez recently?
08:42Not named Skeens, I don't know.
08:44Five and O with an ERA just over three.
08:46He's striking out way more batters now
08:48than he did early on this season.
08:50Obviously, Frambois is now healthy.
08:53And look out if Houston gets in,
08:55because that's the kind of guy that can go game one,
08:58game four, game seven for you and win a series.
09:01So very curious to see how far things go.
09:03But guys, let's be clear.
09:04They gotta have Tucker back and healthy,
09:05I think, also, to go deep.
09:07Yeah. Yeah.
09:08Valdez threw a no-hitter in his first outing
09:11in August in 2023.
09:13A near no-no in his first start of August in 2024.
09:17The Astros, a victory.
09:18The Mariners, a loss yesterday at home against the Tigers.
09:22So now just a half-game difference.
09:23Seattle in front in the American League West.
09:26A marquee matchup this week, Craig,
09:28in Los Angeles between the Dodgers and the Phillies.
09:31As we know, it's a regular season set,
09:34as we saw just about a month ago
09:36when Phillies swept the Dodgers,
09:38and it felt like a statement only for the Phills
09:41to lose their next six series,
09:44both before and after the All-Star break.
09:47The rubber match today in Los Angeles.
09:49The Dodgers, a slight favorite to take the game
09:52and the series.
09:53A game-and-a-half lead at this moment
09:55for Philadelphia over L.A.
09:58for the top spot in the National League.
10:00So, Craig, with all of that information,
10:03how significant is this third and final game
10:05in the midweek set tonight in Los Angeles?
10:08Yeah, look, it's the dog days now.
10:10The baseball players will tell you that.
10:12We've reached it in August,
10:13where there's still two, three weeks
10:15until we get to September,
10:16and that's when the final push happens.
10:18I'm very pragmatic about these teams.
10:20Philadelphia, New York, even the Yankees to a degree.
10:22We were talking a few weeks ago.
10:24Everyone was just saying the Yankees are done.
10:27They're done. All of a sudden, they make a trade,
10:28and they roll off several wins in a row.
10:30At some point, the Phillies are going to start winning again.
10:32Dodgers are going to push toward 100 wins.
10:34Every team is going to have these streaks.
10:36What you don't want to do is see it happen
10:38for more than a month or two months.
10:40But, guys, out of every five- or six-month season,
10:42every month can't be a 700-winning percentage.
10:45It was not going to happen for the Phillies.
10:47It was never going to happen for the Dodgers.
10:49And so it really is all that matters, guys.
10:51Talk to me second week in September.
10:53Who's hot? Who's pushing toward the postseason?
10:56Who was it last year?
10:57The Texas Rangers. What did they do?
10:59They got to the World Series.
11:00So I think the same could be said for all of these teams
11:02as we head toward October.
11:05Game-and-a-half difference between the Phillies
11:06and the Dodgers atop the National League.
11:08Only a half game separates the Red Sox and the Royals
11:12for the third and final American League wild card.
11:14Spot, Craig, 30 seconds left.
11:15KC, a minus-142 home Moneyline favorite today.
11:19How important is it for KC
11:21to snap their two-game skid against Boston?
11:24Got to get out of the way of the Red Sox right now.
11:26They're playing really good baseball.
11:27So a little temptation here, I would say,
11:29on the side of Boston.
11:32You know, 10 games over, 11 games over.
11:34Boston has a real good shot to get in
11:36if they can keep it going.
11:37So slight lean toward Boston today.
11:40The Red Sox, winners of six of their last eight,
11:43looking up at KC in the American League wild card chase.
11:46Craig Mitchell, see on Newswire at 11 a.m. Eastern.
11:49More of the early lineup now.
11:50The final game of what appears to be
11:52a very full Wednesday slate in Major League Baseball
11:55is the final game of a midweek series
11:58between the two top teams in the National League,
12:00the two frontrunners for an NL pennant,
12:03the two best prices to win a World Series.
12:05It's the Dodgers and the Phillies in a rubber match
12:08to take the set this week out at Chavez Ravine.
12:12Now, the Dodgers are a favorite, minus-142 on the Moneyline.
12:16Gavin Stone gets the start.
12:18The young Tyler Phillips makes a start
12:20for Philadelphia on the other side.
12:23I believe the total is on the rise out in L.A.
12:26It is at nine, eight and a half the number there,
12:29now at nine for that over-under.
12:32Might we see some offense, DRS,
12:34as you have alluded to throughout this show?
12:37I think we get some.
12:38And yesterday, you know, just breaking down the game,
12:40and sometimes just day-to-day,
12:41the pitchers you have on the mound,
12:43I said the pitcher was better
12:44on the Philadelphia Phillies side,
12:45even though it was Clayton Kershaw.
12:46But we always preface that by saying
12:48it's not Clayton Kershaw as a career.
12:49It's how he appeared just in that game.
12:51And also, the fact that the Los Angeles Dodgers
12:53really struggled over the past month
12:55against left-handed pitching.
12:56Sanchez was a lefty.
12:57It made some sense that they won.
12:58But today, I don't necessarily agree
13:01that the Phillies, you know, or disagree, I should say,
13:03that the Phillies shouldn't be an underdog.
13:04They should.
13:05I just don't know if the Dodgers
13:06should be around that minus-140 range,
13:07because Gavin Stone, not the greatest pitcher.
13:10If you just take a look at a 30-day Snapchat for him, Ben,
13:12303 iso against 448 weighted on base percentage.
13:15And we're talking about a split of 44 left-handed batters
13:18he's faced.
13:18That's a 357 iso, 48 right-handed batters he's faced.
13:22That's 255.
13:23Now, the Philadelphia Phillies' offense
13:25seemingly coming around.
13:26You got some decent temperatures out there late night tonight.
13:2876 degrees at first pitch.
13:30That's nice.
13:31Wind blowing out to dead center field.
13:32That'll help.
13:33But also, what are we getting out of the Phillies' perspective
13:35from their pitcher in Tyler Phillips?
13:37Just making those spot starts here in hopes
13:39that the Phillies get some of their starters back,
13:41like, you know, Ranger Suarez back from the DL,
13:43Tyone Walker, who are close to returning.
13:45He's got to make another start.
13:46His 56 batters he's faced from the right side here,
13:49Ben, a 358 iso and a 426 weighted on base percentage.
13:53So, Teoscar Hernandez went yard last night.
13:55Maybe a good opportunity for him once again tonight.
13:57Also, Kike Hernandez.
13:58Now, you do have a couple left-handed batters
14:00that always do damage.
14:01Let's show Haywatani.
14:02He's got really good numbers against right-handed pitching
14:04and also Gavin Lux.
14:05But I'm more focusing here my efforts on Phillips
14:08really being damaged from the right side.
14:09Case in point, we agree.
14:11Eight and a half to nines makes some sense.
14:13I would not be surprised waking up tomorrow morning
14:15seeing this game have a double-digit number in front of it.
14:18Two talented offenses, two questionable pitchers.
14:21Five starts made in Tyler Phillips' MLB career
14:24all here in 2024.
14:27Through the month of July, he made four starts.
14:30He was 3-0 with a 1-8-0 ERA,
14:33including the final one he made on Saturday, July 27th,
14:36against the Guardians.
14:38A complete game shutout, only allowing four hits,
14:41but was roughed up on Friday in Seattle.
14:44Only an inning and two-thirds,
14:46allowing eight earned runs in total.
14:50What version of Tyler Phillips will we see?
14:52A couple of doubleheaders on the board today
14:54if we can play both of them in Cleveland
14:57between the Guardians and the Diamondbacks
14:59and in the Bronx between the Yankees and the Angels.
15:02The Yanks greater than a two-and-a-half-dollar favorite
15:05in both of the doubleheader games on the slate today
15:08against the Angels.
15:10Much more competitive between Cleveland and Arizona.
15:13Again, the D-backs entered today, DRS,
15:1512-4 since the All-Star break,
15:17victorious in 10 of their last 12 games.
15:20Yeah, by the way, the doubleheaders, to me,
15:22and it might sound odd to say,
15:23they put the better team at a disadvantage.
15:25Why? You got two games against a bad baseball team.
15:27You should beat them both games.
15:29We know how that works out.
15:30You take a look at Arizona and Cleveland.
15:31They have a doubleheader today.
15:33If you told them up front,
15:34hey, you guys are gonna split, hey, you know what?
15:35That's probably what was gonna happen anyway
15:37over the next day or two
15:38if we were playing those baseball games.
15:39But the Yankees being such heavy favorites
15:41and playing a doubleheader anticipated today,
15:44like, you can't ever expect the sweep here.
15:46It's hard to do that.
15:47You might have to use your closer in game number one.
15:49You can't use them in game number two.
15:51Maybe one of your players gets a little bit banged up.
15:53You can't play from game one to game two.
15:54And you just don't want to put your superstars out there
15:56for 18 innings of baseball.
15:58So, therefore, you don't have that full gas opportunity.
16:01So I think the Yankees are at a slight disadvantage.
16:03Should they sweep? Technically, they're the better team.
16:05But how many times does that play out here?
16:07It's a 1-1 just about every single time
16:09it feels the way doubleheaders end up working that way.
16:12But it's a tough scene for the Yankees.
16:14They don't have any excuses.
16:15They should win a handling game number one.
16:17It's just a matter of can they hold on for game number two.
16:20Listen, there's more rain expected here
16:22in the greater New York City area over today,
16:26tomorrow, even beyond that into the weekend.
16:29But if Donnie is correct, right,
16:31just the average margin,
16:33the law of mean or whatever we want to call it,
16:36and this is a doubleheader split,
16:38you're going to have some profitability on the Angels.
16:40Will Warren gets the start in the second game,
16:42as Zeno mentioned, minus 240 right now
16:45in favor of the Pinstripes.
16:46He got the start last week for Garrett Cole,
16:49who was dealing with body fatigue.
16:51Warren got the win for the Yankees.
16:54But if they do split,
16:55and they're a stronger favorite in game number one,
16:58plus 198 is the number on the Halos.
17:00That's if the game tonight is going to be played
17:04because Luis Gil and the Yankees minus 300
17:07in the opener of the doubleheader today.
17:09Last four starts for Gil,
17:11one earned, one earned, one earned,
17:14three earned runs given up so far this year,
17:1711 and five with a 3-2-0 ERA.
17:20By the way, Colton Couser for the Baltimore Orioles,
17:23now an odds-on favorite at minus 155
17:25to win the American League Rookie of the Year award.
17:29Luis Gil, second best price.
17:31Chris Sale is the favorite
17:33to win the National League Cy Young Award
17:34at a plus 110 number.
17:36He gets the start today in Atlanta for the Braves,
17:38who are a minus 164 home Moneyline favorite.
17:41Two straight goose eggs out of Atlanta
17:44at home in their last two games.
17:47They're trying to get some offense today
17:49against Milwaukee.
17:50Does it happen?
17:51Yeah, I don't know if they can,
17:52because again, sometimes you just have to ride those streaks,
17:55right, when the Phillies aren't playing great baseball,
17:56still a good pitcher, still a good lineup.
17:58Sometimes you have to take it with a grain of salt
17:59and say, I don't really want to bet them
18:01until they get it back together.
18:02A couple of good performances from the Phillies at the plate.
18:04You feel much better tonight,
18:05even if it's Phillips on the mound.
18:07The reason I'm bringing that up is you have Chris Sale,
18:09and you don't want to waste it.
18:10Like, hey, Chris Sale, I'm going to go
18:11and give you a seven-innings pitch
18:12and one earned run and be losing when I leave the game.
18:15That's supposed to be an easy victory here.
18:17So what are we looking for?
18:18Law of averages would like to say,
18:20well, you can't go three straight games with a shutout.
18:22That's not a lot of, hey, look,
18:23I'm really looking forward to bet the Atlanta Braves,
18:25and sooner than later, they should bounce back.
18:27If we are looking at the numbers itself,
18:29the one thing I will say,
18:30if we're looking from an Atlanta batting side,
18:32you know, Austin Riley, Marcelo Zuno,
18:34Olsen, Arcia, and Whitmer,
18:36if it all have decent numbers against right-handed pitching.
18:38And Freddy Peralta, who is a quality pitcher,
18:41not as good right now as he was to start the season.
18:44Because if we take a look at the last 30 days,
18:45ISO against 224,
18:47weighted on base percentage against 30,
18:49excuse me, 342.
18:51You should be able to hit.
18:52So theoretically, yes,
18:53maybe the best pitcher in baseball,
18:55particularly in the National League,
18:56is on the mound today at home.
18:57You should be able to lean on that.
18:59But once again, it's not as if it's like,
19:00hey, every night we're getting five-plus runs at Atlanta.
19:03This should be an easy one.
19:04It's one where you ride it out and say,
19:05well, I wish we were up more than one run
19:08after seven innings and Sale leaves the game.
19:10That's what you're left with.
19:11No confidence for me right now in betting the Atlanta Braves.
19:13They just haven't shown up on the plate the last two days,
19:15and I can't back them today,
19:17even if Chris Sale's on the mound.
19:19Yesterday's total was nine and a half.
19:22Milwaukee scored 10 runs.
19:24Atlanta did not score a single run.
19:26Again, the Braves, the only team in MLB
19:30with an underpercentage of 60% or more.
19:33It's just what they have done all year long,
19:36even with those struggles today.
19:38Some day baseball in Chicago,
19:39the rubber match between the Cubbies and the Twins.
19:43Minnesota won game one.
19:44The Cubs were spawned yesterday.
19:45Isak Perades, the new acquisition from Tampa Bay,
19:49three RBIs yesterday for the Cubs.
19:52The Twins, a road favorite today, though, minus 136.
19:56Chris, what do you like inside the friendly confines?
19:58Yeah, we were seeing sixes out there in some outlets
20:01with two good pitchers on the mound,
20:02but always the joke is,
20:03unless it's 30 miles an hour blowing in,
20:06you can't really say it's gonna be worth a few runs,
20:09like two to three runs,
20:10and yesterday they went over the total.
20:11Now today, similar conditions, Ben.
20:1377 degrees at first pitch, 12 mile an hour winds blowing in,
20:17but you do have Ryan,
20:18who I believe is the better pitcher today, over Assad.
20:20If you look at Assad's last 60 days in Major League Baseball,
20:23he's got a 113 X-fit minus, which is slightly elevated.
20:25Has a decent ERA 3.19,
20:28but those future metrics that we like to see,
20:30a 4.59 X-fit number and a 4.65 Sierra number,
20:33tells me the better team
20:34and the better pitcher on the mound
20:36will be from Minnesota's side.
20:37I'll go Minnesota today in this game.
20:40The Twins very much in wild-card positioning,
20:43second-best record in that wild-card race,
20:45only behind the Yanks.
20:47Actually, now it might be the Orioles,
20:49as the O's lost yesterday.
20:51Yeah, Baltimore a half game behind the Yankees
20:54in the American League East,
20:55so Baltimore now the top American League wild-card team.
20:59We'll talk more about that A.L. wild-card chase
21:01and other games on the docket on this Wednesday in MLB.
21:05More breakdowns from Donny Wright, signing up next.
21:08A near-no hitter last night in Arlington,
21:12so what a series it has been already
21:14between the Rangers and the Astros.
21:16Texas taking game one in extra innings.
21:19Josh Smith hitting a walk-off two-run home run.
21:22Last night, Frambois Valdez had a near-no hitter
21:24down to his final out.
21:26Corey Seager hit a two-run shot over the wall,
21:28but Houston still victorious, 4-2.
21:31The rubber match today in Arlington,
21:34where Yusei Kikuchi makes his second start
21:36in an Astros uniform.
21:38Houston won his first start over the weekend
21:41after being acquired at deadline from the Toronto Blue Jays.
21:46Minus 132, the number in favor of the Stros on the road
21:50in Arlington, total of nine.
21:52What's the play today in the in-state showdown?
21:55Yeah, see, creeping up, I guess, and rightfully so,
21:57with Houston at that minus-120 price,
22:00you know, elevated now to the minus-130s.
22:01It feels a little bit like yesterday,
22:03sort of a disrespectful line.
22:04Now, not as important because Valdez
22:06clearly was the better pitcher on the mound.
22:08I still do think Kikuchi is the better pitcher today
22:10than Jose Ureña.
22:11You take a look at Ureña on the season,
22:13he actually has some pretty decent numbers,
22:15but over the past month, he's fallen off a bit.
22:17His last 66 batters, a .237 ISO against
22:20a weighted-on-base percentage of .426.
22:22You got some good bats in that lineup
22:24that should be able to take care of business,
22:26but here's the issue that you might have.
22:28I do like you say, Kikuchi, he's been dominant
22:30as a left-handed pitcher against left-handed batters
22:32all season long, particularly in the past 30 days,
22:34but against righties, he's more average here.
22:37So you're gonna get a lineup
22:38with a lot of right-handed batters
22:39going against Kikuchi, and he is on the road.
22:42That should be a little bit of a test,
22:43but for me, again, I'm just going to roll up the asterisks.
22:45I just think they're a better overall team
22:46than the Texas Rangers.
22:48They won yesterday, and I think they win again today.
22:51Yeah, I would look at that way as well.
22:54You say Kikuchi was given up,
22:56or they gave up a lot to get Kikuchi
22:59to be a part of this embattled and injured starting rotation
23:03for Houston all year.
23:04Farmer Valdez has been great.
23:06The Astros need more of it.
23:08They're a half-game back of Seattle at this moment
23:10for the top spot in the American League West,
23:12and let's be frank, if any of those three teams,
23:15the Mariners, Astros, and Rangers,
23:18are going to get to the postseason,
23:19it probably comes from a divisional title.
23:22The Rangers have lost eight of their last 11
23:24even with the win yesterday.
23:25The Houston Astros have dropped six of their last nine.
23:29We'll get to Seattle in just a moment.
23:31Kansas City inside Kauffman Stadium.
23:34The Royals looking to avoid a sweep over the Red Sox
23:37and looking to avoid a flip-flop
23:39in the American League wild-card standings.
23:41Boston right now, a half-game behind KC
23:45for that third and final A.L. wild-card spot.
23:49The Red Sox have won six of their last eight.
23:52The Royals have now lost a couple of games in a row
23:56here to Boston, but with Cole Reagans on the bump,
23:58KC, a minus-142 home-money-line favorite
24:02in this series finale.
24:03What happens, DRS?
24:04The Red Sox pull off the sweep.
24:06The Royals avoid a sweep.
24:08I wouldn't be surprised if we got more runs in this game,
24:10but we can argue, or should I say can argue,
24:12that the better pitcher, technically,
24:13will be Cole Reagans for the Royals' innings at home.
24:16If we take a look at the card today, 30 total pitchers,
24:1820 innings pitched over the past 60 days.
24:21Reagans comes in at number five
24:22with an 81 X-fit minus number and a solid ERA at 3.36.
24:26Something has got to give here, though,
24:28because Reagans, even over the past month,
24:29very good numbers iso-power-wise
24:31and weighted on base percentage
24:32against lefty and righty batters,
24:34but check out the Boston Red Sox.
24:36Let's just take a look at the top seven batters
24:37we anticipate to be in the lineup for the Red Sox
24:40over the past month against left-handed pitching.
24:42Look at these weighted on base percentages,
24:43and again, use your baseline around .325.
24:46That's the Major League Baseball average.
24:48Durant, .434.
24:49Ref. Snyder, .596.
24:51O'Neal, .386.
24:52Devers, .355.
24:53Wong, .415.
24:55Gonzalez, .431.
24:56And Jansen, .418.
24:58So you're looking at a pitcher that has been dominant,
25:00but a lineup that has been scorching hot
25:02against left-handed pitching.
25:03Flip it over to the other side.
25:04Cutter Crawford will be on the mound.
25:05Not a great pitcher, and certainly not on the level,
25:08at least over the past 60 days, that Cole Reagans has been on.
25:10And if you're talking about weighted on base percentages
25:12against right-handed pitching, take a look at the Royals.
25:15Witt, .503.
25:16Pasquantino, .394.
25:17Perez, .316.
25:18Renfro, .339.
25:19Melendez, .384.
25:21Fermin, .344.
25:22Garcia, .327.
25:24We've had good run support the past two games.
25:26Why not good run support again today?
25:28Unless you feel Reagans is gonna dominate
25:30that very good lineup for the Red Sox,
25:32which I think he can do okay,
25:34I think we get more runs than not.
25:35Why not go that direction as opposed to a side
25:37or a heavier side on the Kansas City Royals?
25:40Will there be any run support today in Seattle
25:43out in the Pacific Northwest?
25:45The odds maker's not expecting a ton.
25:47The total is six.
25:49George Kirby gets the start for Seattle.
25:51The American League's Cy Young odds-on favorite,
25:54Tarek Skubal, gets the start for Detroit.
25:57The M's a slight home favorite,
25:58but again, that total is dropped.
26:00It is a flat six at this moment.
26:03We going over, we going under today in Seattle.
26:07Here's the thing, like I said,
26:08oh, why don't you just go with the six and take the over?
26:10Well, there are different scenarios
26:11where we talk about like Wrigley Field a little bit smaller.
26:13You see how it plays out.
26:15Both of these lineups technically leave a lot to be desired.
26:18They're one through nines, but those pitchers are good.
26:20As I said, those 30 pitchers that we have,
26:22minimum 20 innings pitched over the past 60 days.
26:25Number two, Tarek Skubal on the card today.
26:27Number six, it's George Kirby.
26:28Ex-fifth number, Skubal, 68.
26:30Outrageously good.
26:32You take a look at Kirby, an 82 here.
26:34This game probably more likely to stay under,
26:36but who's betting under six, to be honest?
26:39There's better games out there.
26:40You just might want to sit back and say,
26:41yep, two to one.
26:42That's probably what we anticipated,
26:44but I didn't bet it or win any money on that one.
26:47All right, some better games out there.
26:49Afternoon baseball for the A's and the Red Hot White Sox.
26:54Maybe, can they make it two straight wins?
26:56Winning multiple games on a win streak for the first time
26:59since late June.
27:01Oakland still a minus 190 favorite against Chicago,
27:04despite the White Sox snapping that historic 21 game
27:07losing skid yesterday.
27:09I know it's not Dinger Tuesday,
27:10but we take a look at that lineup.
27:12Brent Rooker, right-handed bat, 72 at bats
27:14against right-handed pitching over the past 30 days.
27:16How about a 453 ISO and a 485 weighted on base percentage?
27:19And also, keep in mind, we like day games in Oakland.
27:22At night, that marine layer comes out.
27:24It's about 65 degrees.
27:25Your first pitch today, 75 degrees with that normal wind
27:29blowing out of the center field.
27:30So I do think Rooker, Rooker can get a hold of one
27:33and put one into the seats and catch in that home run ticket.
27:36Let's see it play out.
27:38Keep an eye on the Padres, 12-3 since the All-Star break,
27:4112 wins in their last 14 games.
27:44They beat Pittsburgh yesterday in PNC Park, 6-zip,
27:48shutting out the Buccos.
27:50San Diego now the top wildcard team in the National League,
27:53followed by divisional mate Arizona.
27:56The Braves, who have lost three straight games,
27:58including the opener yesterday against Milwaukee,
28:01now cling to a one-and-a-half game lead
28:03for the third and final National League wildcard spot
28:06in front of the Mets.
28:08It was Atlanta in the top spot virtually all year long.
28:11The Masons losing yesterday in Colorado,
28:14a game the Mets could ill afford to lose.
28:17He is Donny Rightside.
28:19We will talk tomorrow.
28:20Now, go enjoy the Moneyline, DRS.
28:23We'll see you tomorrow here on the Early Line.
28:25A couple more minutes on TEL next.