Nick and Rob break down Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks and why their win total is very sharp and they are unsure of what to expect from an offense that took a step back last year.
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00:00So Gino Smith is back at practice now for the Seahawks.
00:03And he's got a knee, hip injury, all that stuff.
00:06And I mean, his story obviously a couple years ago was great.
00:08He's continued to be the starter in Seattle.
00:10Even you can, look, there's been ups, there's been downs, we get it, it's there.
00:13But still a great story overall.
00:15When I look at Gino Smith this year, I gotta be honest with you.
00:18There are so many questions though that I just have.
00:22Like I have questions about what Seattle is going to look like this year.
00:26Are they gonna run the football more?
00:27Obviously a defensive minded head coach now that's taken over.
00:30It's weird to not see Pete Carroll as the head coach in Seattle, but
00:33that's the case of where we are right now.
00:36But Gino Smith at his best has been a very, very good,
00:41if not great starter in the NFL in his time in Seattle.
00:44But you just wonder, and maybe this is just me, maybe you feel differently.
00:48But I look at this and go, when is the rug gonna get pulled out?
00:51Is this gonna continue?
00:52Or are we gonna start to see that decline to the previous Gino Smith that we used
00:57to see before?
00:59I mean, dude, we kind of started to see that last year.
01:02It doesn't mean Gino's numbers were bad last year, but he was a 70% passer in 2023,
01:08down to under 65% last year.
01:11He threw for 600 fewer yards.
01:13He threw for 10 fewer touchdowns, a couple more picks.
01:15The QBR went down eight points.
01:17And again, that's not like falling off the cliff.
01:22But if you take it one step further in the direction you weren't intending to,
01:25I think that might be the Dave Canales effect, right?
01:28Because he left Gino, went to do it with Baker.
01:29And all of a sudden, Baker Mayfield earns $100 million contract,
01:32which is why Dave Canales is now in Charlotte coaching the Carolina Panthers,
01:37hoping they can do the same thing with Bryce Young.
01:40But last year was the worst season that Gino Smith
01:46had that he played close to a full season, right?
01:49I think you've already seen a bit of that regression.
01:52Now, if he has the same year this year that he had last year,
01:56it's good enough to get you into the playoffs as a wildcard team.
01:59It's good enough to win a couple of playoff games.
02:02It's good enough to be a Super Bowl champ.
02:04I don't know if I'm quite ready to go that far.
02:06It would depend on how much help he gets from DK Metcalf and the rest of the boys.
02:09But we kind of already saw the regression last year.
02:13So the question is, what Gino Smith are you getting?
02:16You getting the 2022 version that throws for 70%?
02:20Or are you getting the 2023 version that throws for 65?
02:23And when you look at a 17-game schedule, that is a difference.
02:27Doesn't seem like it, but it's a big difference,
02:30especially when you get down into the season and playoff spots are on the line.
02:34Just under 4,300 passing yards in 2022, played 15 games in 2023,
02:39threw for a little over 3,600, 20 touchdowns,
02:42nine interceptions versus the 30 and 11 that year before.
02:46If you're looking at what his season-long props are this year,
02:493,400 passing yards, what we're sitting at right now, minus 110 both ways.
02:5421 and a half passing touchdowns, minus 110 both ways for that too.
02:5840 to 1 to lead the league in passing yards.
03:0140 to 1 to lead the league in passing touchdowns.
03:03I wouldn't touch any of those right now.
03:05I wouldn't touch the MVP at 125 to 1.
03:07It's there, but let's be honest with ourselves.
03:09That's just a way to give your money back to whatever sports book,
03:12hopefully BetMGM, that you're giving your money to and
03:14you just continue to go through with that.
03:16But I will say there's a couple bets that involve at least Seattle that
03:22are interesting, and you could look at plus 750 for Seattle to win the division.
03:28Now that means that San Francisco has a lot of injury issues,
03:32which is a possibility given what we saw in the middle of last season when they
03:36started off 5-0, then went on a losing streak when they started dealing with Debo
03:40and Trent Williams and guys were getting hurt.
03:42And then there's also just Seattle just plus 200 to make the playoffs.
03:46Like if I'm gonna look at anything out of all of these that are here and
03:49you said, hey, Nick, here's a bet.
03:51Here's a bonus bet.
03:52You gotta use it.
03:53You gotta bet something.
03:54I'm not touching the passing yards for Gino,
03:56even though 3,400 is not really a high number.
03:58But we've just talked about the questions that are certainly there.
04:02I'd look at probably Seattle to win the division at plus 750 if I had to use a bet.
04:08Or more importantly, Seattle to make the playoffs.
04:10Not great odds, but two to one still, I would go probably that direction.
04:16Yeah, I mean, if I have to make the bet, I follow you.
04:19I don't think there's a Seattle future that I like, all right?
04:22There's just not, and that's not to say it's really,
04:25that includes betting the under.
04:27I just don't know.
04:28I don't know.
04:30I look at the schedule.
04:32They open up with Denver, New England, but then they got Miami, Detroit.
04:36A Giants team that we don't know what they're gonna be, the 49ers.
04:39A Falcons team that I think people are sleeping on, Atlanta.
04:43Atlanta is one of the teams that I did take an over bet on.
04:46You got Buffalo, you got the Rams, the Niners again.
04:49What are the Cardinals gonna be?
04:50I don't know, you got them twice in three weeks with Aaron Rodgers.
04:53And the Jets wedged in the middle, the Packers, Vikings, Bears, and Rams.
04:57This is one of those teams that I would love to tell you.
05:00I've got some deeper analysis.
05:01But when I look up and down the schedule,
05:04there's not an easy three game set anywhere in it, bud.
05:08There's not a three game set that I feel good about the Seahawks anywhere on it,
05:13especially when, as we pointed out, we don't know what Geno Smith we're getting.
05:18I don't know if I'm getting the one from the Pro Bowl a couple of years ago, or
05:21the one last year or two could step back.
05:23Or if there's one that will take an even further step back this year,
05:27with the question marks that the Seahawks have elsewhere on offense.
05:31So I'm with you.
05:34If you gave me a bet that I had to make a bet for,
05:37I think Geno Smith from 2023, excuse me,
05:412022 can absolutely get them into a wild card spot.
05:45I don't know if Geno from 2023 can.
05:49And if you're looking at their strength of schedule,
05:51you went down obviously what that looks like.
05:53I mean, literally middle of the pack.
05:55If you're looking at sharp football, it's 15th.
05:57And I prefer that versus let's look at the team's records from last year.
06:00Cuz let's be honest, that means very little considering teams are very different
06:04from what we saw last season.
06:06But when total is seven and a half, it's a team.
06:11The Seahawks are a team that you look at and you say they're not flashy.
06:14There's not a lot there that you're overly excited about.
06:17But I feel like the floor is a bit high, but the ceiling is maybe low.
06:21So they've got this short window where seven and
06:23a half wins just feels so, it feels so sharp.
06:27I don't think I'd probably touch that at all.
06:29But the question then becomes, okay, if we start talking about Seattle, right?
06:34And we say, all right, that's a playoff team this year.
06:37The big thing that I always try and do is then say, okay,
06:40who's gonna be out from last season?
06:43And if you look at the NFC, the NFC did get better.
06:46But you also go down the list and go, all right,
06:49Seattle just missed it at nine and eight last year.
06:51Green Bay was the last team in.
06:54I think the Packers make the playoffs again.
06:55I think the Rams make the playoffs again as long as they stay healthy.
06:58Philadelphia is better.
06:59Is Tampa maybe the team that has regression this year?
07:03Cuz the offense isn't the same.
07:04Dave Canales isn't there anymore.
07:06And that's where Seattle steps in.
07:08So it's hard for me to find a spot, obviously, other than, like I said,
07:12if San Francisco has injury issues and the Rams maybe take a step back.
07:16And Matt Stafford's hurt again, and
07:18that's where Seattle's window is to actually win the division.
07:20It's just tough to find a spot where you can say, okay,
07:23this is how Seattle jumps into the playoffs over this team from last season.
07:28Yeah, I mean, listen, even if you're stretching to make the hypothetical
07:32you need to make to fit them in, I got a hard time stretching that for.
07:37You brought up one team that I think you got right, and
07:40I think that's Tampa Bay.
07:41I do think they're taking, I love Baker Mayfield, all right?
07:44I'm a big Baker guy, I'm pulling for Baker Mayfield to do well.
07:49But that team is aging offensively.
07:51They just signed Tristan Wirfs, and that's a good pickup.
07:53The offensive line's gonna be fine, but that's a conference.
07:57It's got some damn good pass rushers in it, right?
07:59New Orleans added a couple of big edges, Chase Young down there,
08:03along with Cam Jordan.
08:04Then I look up in Carolina, Jadavion Clowney has showed up, and
08:08I've been watching their practices the last couple weeks.
08:10Dude is making life hell for a much improved Carolina Panther offensive line.
08:16And even Atlanta, if I asked you where the strength is for
08:19an Atlanta defense that needed to get better, and Falcons fans are mad they
08:23didn't because they took Michael Pettis Jr.
08:26A move I still say is the right move, and we can fight about that later.
08:31The heart and soul of that defense is the defensive line and
08:34the interior linebackers there.
08:36So there's no guarantee that Baker Mayfield, without Dave Canales,
08:40is gonna be the Baker Mayfield that he was with Dave Canales.