Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran, Iran, on July 31, the Palestinian militant group said. According to Iranian state media, Haniyeh and one of his bodyguards were killed in a strike on the building they were staying in. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that Haniyeh was in Tehran to attend the inauguration ceremony of Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian when the incident occurred. Now questions are looming about who was behind the attack? We have got Hüseyin Bagci - Co-Founder, Ankara Global Advisory Group From Ankara, Turkey To talk over matter.
#IsmailHaniyeh #Hamas #MiddleEastConflict #Iran #Israel #GlobalReactions #EscalationWarnings #Tehran #HamasLeader #InternationalAffairs #Hezbollah #PalestinianIslamicJihad #PeaceEfforts #MiddleEast #BreakingNews
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#IsmailHaniyeh #Hamas #MiddleEastConflict #Iran #Israel #GlobalReactions #EscalationWarnings #Tehran #HamasLeader #InternationalAffairs #Hezbollah #PalestinianIslamicJihad #PeaceEfforts #MiddleEast #BreakingNews
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00:00Hello and welcome to this special broadcast on OneIndia in the series of interviews that
00:06we are doing on OneIndia as the fallout or the impact, the likely impact of the assassination
00:13of Hamas chief Ismail Khanye not in Palestine, not in Gaza, but outside of its borders in
00:21Iran.
00:22Today, we are joined by Professor Hussain Bagchi, he is the co-founder of Ankara Global
00:29Advisory Group.
00:30Professor Bagchi, thank you so much for speaking to OneIndia, sir.
00:34Thank you very much.
00:36Thank you.
00:37Professor, the first question that I want to ask you is the very basic question.
00:43What could be the possible motives behind the assassination of Ismail Khanye in Iran?
00:50Actually, this type of political assassinations conducted by Israeli intelligence service
00:58has been not new.
01:00The difference is, as you rightly pointed out, it is outside of the Palestine territory,
01:05it is in Iran, and it is a very directly targeted attack and his killing is of course a big
01:16blow to Hamas in general because he was one of the prime ministers, negotiator, one of
01:23the international personalities of Hamas, who was also very much welcomed in Turkey
01:30by the Turkish government so many times.
01:34This is another situation now that Israel probably will conduct further this type of
01:45attacks or assassinations for the other political leaders as far as they have the opportunity.
01:54I think when Prime Minister Netanyahu visited America last week and he came back,
02:02and probably he was getting the gift, I would say, the support of American administration
02:09because he was talking not only to President and Deputy President, Vice President, but also
02:16candidate Donald Trump and he was receiving a big ovation in the Congress.
02:23He was, from his body language point of view, very happy there and when he returned back,
02:31he got directly his cabinet and decided probably to attack also Lebanon
02:38and now this political assassination. It is, of course, for Israel, concerning the Israeli
02:46population and people, it is a very high increasing moral now that their people can do
02:54a fight and the government is behind it to punish, if you want, the same attack of Hamas.
03:03But there is a problem. Netanyahu is like somebody who has no stock in the hand in a
03:12village where there are a lot of dogs, so he is not having any reactions neither by the Arab League
03:20nor by the other people there and Turkey and Iran are mostly the two countries which
03:29made a lot of noise, but no thunder, no rain. But they cannot so far
03:40attack Israel because of this. Condemnation will be the case, moral condemnation, political
03:46condemnation, diplomatic condemnation will be there, but to declare the war to Israel means
03:55declaring the war to America, NATO and the European Union. As the American defense minister
04:01Austin stated, if Israel is attacked, it will support. This is the signal to those countries
04:09who are important in the region. I'm talking here the Arab countries, Gulf countries in general.
04:16And we know that the Gulf countries do not want to get any organized,
04:25militarily organized groups, non-state actors in the Middle East. Hamas, Hezbollah and
04:33like groups they don't like. So why? Because Middle East, if there is a cooperation between
04:40Arab countries and Israel like the Abraham Accords, then there should be no this type of
04:48disturbances in economic, political terms. So, I think whatever it is, the assassination of
04:57Hamieh is a big event within the Gaza conflict since October 7th.
05:05October 7th, indeed, indeed. Professor Bauchi, you mentioned that after the return of Benjamin
05:12Netanyahu from the United States, he possibly carried out that attack and others also. There
05:18was one attack in Beirut also. To implicate Israel as of now for this assassination,
05:27what could be the ramifications first? And secondly, how importantly or how convincingly
05:33do you believe that a United States which is going to elections, would any candidate,
05:41either Democrat or Republican, would risk his candidature of possibly getting into another war?
05:50First of all, I don't think there will be a war. The second one, two countries
05:57in their, not constitution, but in their raison d'etre, are obliged to help to Israel. This is
06:06the United States of America and this is Germany. So, these two countries are the, in quotation,
06:14natural protectors of the state of Israel. And then maybe the other European countries,
06:22Great Britain included. But these two countries are crucial ones. And I think
06:28the American presidential candidates, they know exactly if they would have any statements against
06:37Israel or Israel-related political issues, they don't have any chance to win the elections in
06:44America. This is another political reality. So, even candidate Kamala Harris, just last week,
06:52she started her speech, Hamas is a terror organization. It is exactly what the Israelis
06:59wanted to hear. Whereas for other countries like Turkey, for example, Hamas is not a terror
07:05organization. So, this process will continue. But maybe in this respect, I may tell you what I
07:15told to Turkish press and newspapers. The Gaza issue is turning, evolving to a non-Arab issue.
07:27Since the very beginning, since 1948, it was Arab-Israeli conflict. We all know the history,
07:34like Omar Sadat's Israel's policy, land for peace or peace for land policy. And he was
07:40assassinated by Muslim brothers in the north. It is very difficult to get peace in the Middle East.
07:47But these two countries, Turkey and Iran, are non-Arab countries. And suddenly these two
07:54countries appear as the national protector of Gaza issue or Hamas supporters. This is a very
08:03dangerous, I would say, involvement because Iran and Turkey, two neighbors, important
08:13concerning the Jerusalem and of course Palestine issue, always supported Turkey as the one
08:21since 1979 as a Palestinian embassy in Ankara. But the problem is here, how Iran and Turkey
08:30will react now to react to Israel's position. I understand that Iran supporting Hamas,
08:41but I do not think that Iran would enter into war with Israel for two reasons. One,
08:50in the history, it has never been the case. And Ahmedinejad stated just today that they
08:59supported the occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan and supported America. So this type of statement
09:07suddenly comes and it creates a new political environment. I do not expect that America and
09:14Iran will fight. It is not at the moment. Turkey, the Turkish policy from the very beginning
09:24was on the side of Hamas, which created a lot of discussion in the Turkish public,
09:30in the mainstream discussion. And the president's statements just a couple of days ago,
09:38where I commented also several times to different newspapers and televisions, I think
09:49it was meant not to attack Israel, but in the long run how to fight Israel. Turkey and Israel
09:59actually had the best relations in the past. Until last September, Netanyahu was on the way to come
10:07to Turkey to visit before 7th of October. So the Turkish-Israeli relations have been
10:15troublesome. But last year and the year before, the Israeli president came to Turkey and everything
10:23was just going on with this Abraham Accords. Turkey was turning the policy not to be against
10:33Israel, but to cooperate with Israel. Now, the verbal confrontation between the foreign ministers
10:43of two sides, I find it childish that one is talking like Saddam Hussein in Portugal and
10:53Turkish foreign ministry, never ever Turkish foreign ministry stated to compare Netanyahu
10:59as Hitler. I mean, this type of verbal accusation mostly for domestic consumption. So I think
11:09both sides, Netanyahu and Erdogan, in all those years, they were
11:14blessing each other, but making, if you want, positive results in the elections.
11:23Absolutely, Professor. A lot changed, you're right. Not just in September-October of 2023,
11:32but also even during the time of 2015, when there was a churn in Kyrgyz politics, when
11:40President Erdogan gave more powers to the president and prime ministerial powers were curtailed.
11:47That was also a time when all this migrant crisis was going on. Turkey was
11:54facing the heat from Syrian border. There was a war also going on, the red zone issue, and then
12:00the Israeli support to the other factions. So nonetheless, coming back to Turkey, Professor,
12:06and this would be the last question, I don't want to keep you busy on your holiday also.
12:11Given Turkey's strong response to the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, the journalist in 2018,
12:21in the Saudi Arabia embassy in Istanbul, how do you think Turkey might respond to the killing
12:27of Ismail Haniyeh in Iran, outside his own country's borders? And what parallels, if you
12:33may share with us, can be drawn between these two incidents, Professor? Interesting comparison,
12:40first of all, and good question. One of the issues, it was the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul,
12:49where Jamal Khashoggi was killed. It was perfectly organized, like Hollywood film.
12:59Turkey condemned, like many other countries, of course, this. But at the end of the day,
13:05President Erdogan turned his policy from unfriendly relations to now brotherly relations.
13:12So this is something which we have sometimes difficulties to analyze and compare, because
13:20President Erdogan's policy is very strongly polarizing, but then is like a boomerang,
13:29coming back, and as if nothing happened before, he continued the relations. It is very pragmatic,
13:38I would say, political animal, in political terms. I do not expect that for Haniyeh,
13:47it will be the same, because Haniyeh is not the state representative. I mean,
13:54Hamas does not represent a state, first of all. But the Turkish concern, President's concern, is
14:02much more ideological in this respect. And this ideological rapprochement,
14:09started with the Arab Spring, continues. And I think he never given up, he has never given up
14:17his position concerning the Hamas. But he knows, technically and practically,
14:24that he cannot do anything against Israel in this sense, militarily. Verbal attacks will be there,
14:34but if there are some developments in future, a new Gaza, a new, let's say, political environment,
14:45probably Turkey will further continue to have good relations with Israel. If President
14:52Erdogan is out of office, and then replaced by another one, not from his party, but from the
14:59opposition, probably the Turkish style relations will be faster, much better than it would be the
15:07case for AKP political leadership. Right, the AKP, for which President Erdogan becomes the up party,
15:16as they call it. Yes. Professor Hussain Bagchi, thank you so much. This is the time when I say
15:21tamam here. Thank you so much. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you so much for speaking
15:28to us. We were speaking to Professor Hussain Bagchi, and he is the co-founder of ANGARA,
15:36Global Advising Group. Thank you so much, sir. Have a lovely day. Thank you.
15:45Thank you.