Hamas Political Chief Killed In Iran — Here's What That Means For Israel And The War In Gaza

2 months ago

Ismail Haniyeh, the top political leader of Hamas, was killed in Tehran early on Wednesday, Iranian officials said, as Hamas blamed Israel and accused it of carrying out a targeted assassination. Brad Bowman, senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, joins "Forbes Newsroom" to discuss.

Read the full story on Forbes: https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/07/31/hamas-political-chief-ismail-haniyeh-killed-in-iran-militant-group-blames-israel/

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Transcript

00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now

00:07is Brad Bowman, senior director at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. Brad, thank you

00:12so much for coming on. It's my pleasure. Thank you. A lot has unfolded in the Middle East

00:17over the past few days, but I first want to start with the conflict between Hezbollah

00:21and Israel. So over the weekend, a strike in Golan Heights killed at least 12 children

00:27on a soccer field. The IDF blamed Hezbollah. Hezbollah denied responsibility. So then earlier

00:32this week, Israel responded with a Beirut strike that killed a Hezbollah commander.

00:37What do we need to know in this conflict? Thanks for the question. It's really an

00:42important question. I think what some of your viewers may not know that I think is the starting

00:47point for understanding what we're witnessing currently is that following the October 7 Hamas

00:52terror attack on Israel, which was the worst murder, single-day murder of Jews since the

00:57Holocaust, Hezbollah, the Islamic Republic of Iran's varsity terror proxity based in Lebanon,

01:04started attacking Israel on almost a daily basis on October 8th. And so there has been a low-scale

01:10war going on in Israel's north that has gotten increasingly intense with more deadly strikes,

01:17more frequent further into each of the respective countries across what's called the blue line,

01:22the effective border between Israel and Lebanon. And for a long time, Israel has been warning that

01:28if these attacks from Hezbollah, this terrorist organization in Lebanon that has a military that's

01:34more formidable than a lot of European militaries, didn't stop its attack, that things could spin out

01:40of control and do a major war. And unfortunately, we saw on Saturday, as you said, this short-range

01:46rocket launched from southern Lebanon by Hezbollah. I don't believe what they're saying.

01:51They're not known for truth-telling. Israel and the U.S. government says this was Hezbollah. It

01:55was launched from areas that Hezbollah controls, launched this rocket, and it killed 12 children

02:01and injured more than roughly 50 people, the worst single-day attack on Israel since October 7th. And

02:09Israeli leaders responded the way you'd expect them to respond, and that is that this was

02:13unacceptable and that there would be a response. And when you're Israel, you know, a country

02:19roughly the size of New Jersey, surrounded largely by enemies that want to exterminate

02:26your country, then when this happens and you live in a tough neighborhood, you have to respond. And

02:30indeed, that's what they did. They responded with this strike in Beirut, taking out Fuad Shukr,

02:36who was a top commander there and was responsible for this murder of these 12 children and responsible

02:45countless other attacks and was actually involved, believe it or not, in the 1983 bombing that killed

02:50more than 240 U.S. service members. So as a former U.S. service member, it feels to me, you know,

02:55I don't celebrate the death of anyone, but it feels to me like this individual had justice

02:59coming and Israel delivered that justice. And so that's the Beirut strike. And then, of course,

03:04we had the big strike in Iran that we could talk about as well, if you like.

03:09Yeah, we will talk about that in a second. But I am curious,

03:12can we expect any further escalation here? Or after Israel's response to the Beirut strike,

03:18is it over? No, I don't think. I think in the Middle East generally, but particularly in what

03:23we're seeing between Hezbollah and Israel, this is almost certainly not over. My prediction would be

03:29that Hezbollah will respond to Israel and that response could be escalatory. And so we could be

03:37here at the early stages of an escalatory cycle that could spin out of control into a full-scale

03:42war. And the thing for your viewers to understand is that these aren't vacuous words. This is a big

03:49deal if that happens, because Hezbollah is far more formidable than Hamas and Gaza is.

03:55Just to throw a few numbers on the table, Hezbollah has somewhere between 150,000

04:01and 200,000 rockets and mortars and missiles. And so we've had periodic spats between Israel

04:11and terrorist groups in Gaza over the last few years, and you have a few thousand rockets launched

04:18over a week, week and a half. Hezbollah could be launching that quantity in one day. And it would

04:24be a combination of unguided rockets, large quantities of those, combined with drone swarm

04:31attacks, combined with the use of precision-guided munitions. So the Israeli military is the best in

04:36the region, but that kind of attack that I'm describing could overwhelm some of Israel's air

04:42and missile defenses. And so that would put a burden on Israel to not only try to shoot those

04:46down, it will fail in some cases to do that, but to aggressively go after the launch sites in

04:51Lebanon. So what I'm describing is a major war in Lebanon where it could become worse than what

04:59we saw in Gaza. So let's talk about geography here for a moment. This is happening in northern

05:05Israel, but I want to turn to how this would affect the war in Gaza. Would it? Yes. So I think

05:14it's important to understand that Hamas was not acting alone and Hezbollah is not acting alone.

05:21It's important to understand what the network that they're operating as part of. They're part

05:27of what's called a resistance movement, which sounds very noble, but it's not. It's just,

05:32frankly, a group of terrorists, a whole bunch of different terrorist groups. Who's in that group?

05:37It's Hamas, which a lot of your viewers are familiar with in Gaza. It's Hezbollah, whom we

05:43were just talking about in Lebanon. It's the Houthis now in Yemen, which also has been attacking

05:48Israel and has been attacking U.S. sailors and civilian merchants in the Red Sea for quite some

05:54time, the most significant assault on international shipping in decades, as well as groups in Iraq

05:59and Syria. So there's a whole network of terror proxies. You can think of it as kind of a puppet

06:05master in the Islamic Republic of Iran and these terror proxy puppets. And what happens is that,

06:12and this will sound like I'm exaggerating, but I believe the evidence supports it and stands

06:16up to scrutiny. Iran is implementing a multi-year campaign to surround, harass,

06:22harryware down and ultimately exterminate the state of Israel. And I think anyone who would

06:28say, well, that's kind of extreme. Are you exaggerating a little bit? Look at what happened

06:31on October 7th. Look at Iran's response. Look at Iran's response to the death of the Hamas leader

06:40in Iran. And you start to understand that this is a methodical strategy where they're trying

06:45to establish this ring of fire around Israel, America's most reliable and capable ally in the

06:50Middle East. And so America is not and should not be neutral on this. And that's why it's so important

06:55that we've come to Israel's aid after October 7th, in my view, and also when

06:59Iran conducted an unprecedented direct assault on Israel on April 13th and 14th.

07:06So Iran is fighting Israel through these multiple proxies. Many of my guests from the FDD included

07:12have told us this. But when or at all, if will we see Iran become in and Iran directly fight Israel?

07:22It's a great question. We've already seen it. The assault I just mentioned on April 13th and 14th,

07:28we had the Islamic Republic of Iran launch somewhere close to 350 munitions

07:36at Israel, and only a small number got through. And it wasn't for lack of trying. They were

07:40absolutely trying to murder Israelis with that attack. But they failed. They did injure,

07:46sadly, one Bedouin girl, but they failed because of the sophistication and capability of Israeli

07:51air and missile defense and the assistance of the United States. And don't miss this.

07:56Some of the help that came from Arab countries, such as Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and that's a

08:01nightmare for Iran, because like a bully on the playground, the Islamic Republic of Iran wants to

08:06divide and conquer, divide, distract and conquer the other kids so they can pick them off one by

08:11one. So that's why it's so important to understand what's going on here. This is a broader strategy

08:17by Iran. And if we only respond to the terror proxies, we only hit the terror puppets,

08:24and we leave the puppet master sitting back in comfort, smiling, then that plays right into

08:30Iran's strategy. Unfortunately, that's what the United States and to some degree, Israel

08:34has been doing for quite some time now. Hamas's top political leader was killed in a strike in

08:40Iran. Hamas is blaming Israel. The IDF has not commented. What does this strike do to the Israel

08:47Hamas war? Yeah, you know, so what it's not a great time to be a Hamas leader. And it's not it's

08:55not it's not a safe time to be a Hamas leader. And that's hardly surprising, right? If you conduct

09:01the worst single day murder of Jews on October 7th, then what would you expect Israel to do?

09:07Let's remember, Israel was a country established after the Holocaust, where 6 million Jews were

09:12murdered as a place of safety for Jews. And this was some combination for Israelis of Pearl Harbor

09:19in the 9-11. And just they had to respond. So, of course, Israel is going to go after the leaders.

09:26And that's what they've done. They've gone after Salah. There was the death on January 2nd of

09:30Saleh Arori in Lebanon. You had the death of Marwan Issa, the deputy commander of the military

09:36wing on March 10th. You had the likely death of Bahama Dief on July 13th. And then here on July

09:4431st, Ismail Haniyeh, the chief political leader. So, you know, who does that leave? That

09:50leaves Kaleid Mishal in Qatar, who's sitting in comfort there in Qatar, is less relevant these

09:56days. And Yaya Sinwar, the person most responsible for the horrors of October 7th. So Yaya Sinwar

10:02is likely hiding in a tunnel in Gaza. And I suspect he's probably going to find his final

10:08demise there in that tunnel. So Israel has been successful in going after Hamas leadership as

10:14you'd expect them to, as they had no choice to do. Roughly two-thirds of Hamas's fighting force

10:19has been destroyed. That's the good news. The bad news is about a third to some degree, depending

10:24how you measure it, still exists. And so one of the reasons why Israel has been reluctant to go

10:29to a full-scale war with Hezbollah is because it didn't want to be confronting two major wars at

10:34the same time. And then also keep in mind what I said earlier, right? If you have a major war

10:38in Hezbollah that lasts months or years with the kind of firepower that Hezbollah brings to that,

10:44then once again, as formidable as Hezbollah is and as necessary as it is for Israel to respond with

10:50more than 60,000 Israelis displaced from their home, more than two dozen Israelis killed,

10:55they have to do something about it. But again, if they're spending all their finite time,

10:59resources, attention, munitions on going after the puppet, then once again, there is Iran sitting

11:05back, smiling, seeing Israel get worn down as it's receiving no counterpunches itself.

11:12I do want to talk about what this all means for a potential ceasefire deal, because the top

11:17political leader of Hamas that was killed on Wednesday, he apparently was a key figure in the

11:24ceasefire talks. So does this mean that they are stalled? Are they not on the table anymore?

11:30What does that look like? Right. So if you think about it, if you're Yaya Sinwar or another Hamas

11:37leader and you're looking at the offer on the table, right, and you see all of your colleagues

11:43in crime, if you will, dying, I would say receiving their just due, then that might make you just on

11:50a human level eager for a ceasefire. Right. And the main point of contention has been whether it

11:58is a temporary ceasefire or a permanent ceasefire. Right. Generally speaking, Friends of Israel want

12:04a temporary ceasefire because they want Israel at a time and place of its choosing to come back

12:09and finish as much of the job as possible. Easier said than done. And Friends of Hamas want a

12:14permanent ceasefire because they they they want this group, this group itself. I'll speak to

12:19about them directly, wants to survive, to live and conduct a future October 7th as many times

12:25as possible. Don't take my word for it. See what they've said. So that's been the central

12:30contention. Obviously, we have the the poor hostages, the ones that are still alive that

12:35need to come home sooner rather than later. But there are multiple dynamics at play here.

12:41And I would I would suggest that probably for the remaining Hamas leaders, what they're seeing

12:47might incentivize them to be more to view a potential deal more favorably. But again,

12:53they're going to want a permanent ceasefire, not a temporary ceasefire.

12:57From this conversation, you're essentially saying all roads lead back to Iran. They are the puppet

13:03master here. What do you see Iran's role being as tensions continue to escalate further and further?

13:12I think that the Islamic Republic of Iran will feel a need to respond strongly from their

13:18perspective to to the assassination of Ismail Hania, the chief political leader. I my educated

13:26guess would be that that response would come in multiple forms. We're probably going to see

13:30responses from the terror proxies. I probably certainly response from Hezbollah and then also

13:36potentially responses directly from Iran. I think Iran is troubled for their part. The regime is

13:44by the fact how easily Israel went in and did a pinpoint strike against this leader.

13:49And they're going to feel a political need to respond, because frankly, it makes them look

13:53pretty weak. And and it kind of undercut suggestions that the Islamic Republic of Iran,

13:58the regime at least is 10 feet tall because it's not. And what specifically are you looking out

14:04for next in the Middle East region as a whole? Yeah, I've been watching. And at FDD.org,

14:11we have a tracker of all the attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq, Syria and Jordan. And your viewers

14:17can go there and see it where we document each of those. And the point is that for so long,

14:22we had regular attacks on U.S. forces and the Biden administration was just, frankly,

14:26slow in responding. But when they finally and then sadly, because they were slow in responding,

14:32the attacks continued. And then we had the three U.S. service members kill the Tower 22 in Jordan,

14:37as some of your viewers remember, which was horrible. You know, three patriotic Americans

14:41that will never return to their families who paid the ultimate sacrifice for our country.

14:44And so after that, belatedly, I would respectfully say the Biden administration responded strongly.

14:50And after more than 85 attacks in one day and then killing some militia leaders a short time later,

14:56after that strong response, what happened? Exactly what you'd expect to happen on a playground

15:02when you finally punch the bully in the face. The bully backed down for a long time. For an

15:07extended period of weeks, there was only a couple attacks, a dramatic change from the status quo.

15:12And so my study of history since 1979, looking back to the Reagan era, looking back after the 2003

15:18Iraq invasion, looking at the data that we lay out in detail on our website about more recently

15:24in Iraq and Syria, what I observe is that when the Islamic Republic of Iran sees weakness in

15:30Washington, it is literally a green light for more attacks. And when they see concerted strength

15:36emanating from Washington, they back down. The problem is, is that we do this strategic,

15:42narcissistic, strategic mirroring where we think our adversaries are just like us, that if we

15:46extend a hand in friendship, extend an olive branch, hey, we don't want a regional war, we don't want

15:51to fight. Then we think, oh, they'll be reasonable and they'll respond. But no, they see that as

15:55weakness and they attack us more, just like the bully on the playground. I hate to keep coming

15:59back to that. But if you have a bully who's throwing punches and you keep saying, I don't want

16:03to fight, I don't want to fight, I don't want to fight, what's the bully going to do? He's going to

16:05hit you in the mouth again. And that's the general, that's the approach toward Iran. But unfortunately,

16:11in this election year, if I'm being blunt, and kind of the instinct that we see from this

16:15administration that played out, frankly, in the Ukraine context, and we've seen playing else

16:20elsewhere, very good intentions, but very naive and weakness and repeating, we don't want a regional

16:26war, we don't want a regional war, we don't want to, which is all true, we don't want a regional

16:30war, we don't want an escalation. By saying that, you're signaling weakness and inviting more

16:34attacks. And if I could, if I could persuade the Biden administration of one thing, I would ask

16:38them to look at the evidence for that approach and see that it has failed. If you could talk to

16:43the Biden administration today, how would you want the United States to respond today?

16:49I would say that when Israel confronts one of the worst attacks in its history,

16:55you stand with Israel. And I would give the Biden administration credit for the first week's act

16:59for October 7th, both in word and in action, they stood with Israel. They continue to send

17:05an unprecedented array of weapons, quantity and array of weapons. But at the same time,

17:10the rhetoric was escalating, demonizing and isolating Israel, which was inadvertently,

17:15I would say, empowering Israel's enemies. And then every time Israel is attacked,

17:21the White House comes in and says, well, you know, restrain Israel, restrain Israel. And if

17:25you just think about that logically, again, if Israel's enemies can rely on Washington restraining

17:30Israel every time it's attacked, what are you doing? You're encouraging the enemies of Israel

17:36to attack them because they can rely on the United States to use its political power over

17:41Israel to try to restrain Israel. When you live in a tough neighborhood, you can't keep taking blows

17:46in the face and not responding. And sometimes we live in such relative safety and comfort here in

17:51Washington, we forget those basic facts. So if we want peace in the Middle East, which we all want,

17:57we've wanted for a long time, you got to understand who the number one culprit is behind what's going

18:02on is the Islamic Republic of Iran. And you got to understand that this regime is not like us.

18:07And that when you think you're extending a hand of friendship in moderation and you're

18:11being reasonable, you're actually signaling weakness and you're going to get more of the

18:14same. And when you're when your best friend in the region, Israel, your most reliable partners

18:19experience their worst day, you don't join its enemies in criticizing them. You stand with your

18:24best friend, its moment of need. And that's when people find out who their true friends are.

18:29Brad Bowman, I appreciate the conversation today. Thank you so much for joining me.

18:34Thank you for the opportunity. I appreciate it.

Hamas Political Chief Killed In Iran — Here's What That Means For Israel And The War In Gaza

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