Deep Dive 30/07/2024 – Heatwaves and thunderstorms
This is an in-depth Met Office UK Weather forecast for the next week and beyond. As the humidity and heat build this week across England and Wales, there’s a risk of thunderstorms for some. But will the heat last until the weekend and are hot days like these becoming more common. Bringing you this deep dive is Met Office meteorologist Annie Shuttleworth and Senior Scientist Mike Kendon.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00From heatwaves to thunderstorms, there are changes on the way for the UK's
00:05weather. What's it looking like for the weekend? How frequently can we expect
00:09days like these hot days to occur in the future? All of this is going to be
00:14covered in today's Deep Dive. Welcome along, I'm Annie, I'm a presenter and
00:19meteorologist here at the Met Office and later on I'll be joined by our special
00:23guest Mike Kendon to take a closer look at the state of the UK climate report.
00:27But before then, we'll take a closer look at the UK's weather this week and
00:31also we'll take a little look into next week as well. So at the moment, across
00:36this week across the UK, we have had some frontal systems across northern areas.
00:41It's actually been a pretty cloudy start to the week across the north but
00:44elsewhere in central and southern areas it's been a sunny week and it is really
00:49hotting up. It's likely to be the hottest day of the year so far today, if not
00:53tomorrow. So you can see on the satellite picture from the past few days,
00:57frontal systems have moved into the far northwest. They're starting to fizzle
01:01away and I think more in the way of widespread sunshine will spread across
01:05the country throughout the rest of the rest of the week and that is because
01:10we've got high pressure dominating our weather. And not only do we have high
01:15pressure, we've also got warm air as well. This is the air mass and the pressure
01:19sequence across the UK. So let's play the sequence and you can see as high
01:23pressure builds in across the UK through Tuesday, through this evening and
01:28it will dominate into Wednesday. But as I said, there is a change on the way
01:32through Wednesday evening and into Thursday. Thunderstorms are afoot across
01:37southern areas. This frontal system here across the southern areas of England,
01:42south east of England in particular, bring a threat from Wednesday afternoon.
01:47We do have warnings in force. We'll take a closer look at them in just a minute.
01:51And we continue to see these features, these little areas. This just shows areas
01:54of forcing. It's forcing from upper levels. That means that we could see
01:58some thunderstorms, potentially some really heavy downpours through
02:02Wednesday and Thursday, lasting maybe into Friday morning before we see a
02:07change, another change into the weekend. That's because we start to see low
02:11pressure dominating. Actually quite a big area of low pressure that will then
02:15stick with us throughout the weekend and into the start of next week as
02:20well. You can see the air mass here. It shows we've got cooler air. We put
02:24the wind arrows on. The air is coming in and around from the north. It's
02:28going to be a much fresher direction. We're losing that continental heat,
02:32losing that humidity through the weekend. If you're not a fan of the
02:35heat, it's probably only going to last until at least Saturday. Southeastern
02:39areas may hold onto it a little longer, but across northern areas or many
02:44western areas, it's going to turn much fresher from Friday afternoon onwards.
02:48That also means it will probably turn wetter and windier as well. So before
02:53we see that change, the temperatures are going to rise overnight and into
02:58the day as well. The daytime temperatures will vary from place to
03:02place because it all depends on cloud cover where we're going to see those
03:05thunderstorms as well. Let's have a look at where our maximum temperatures
03:09are going to be through the next few days. And then we will have a look at
03:15the thunderstorm risk and the warnings. So this is today, 32 degrees, the
03:20maximum expected temperature across southeast. That's the maximum
03:24temperature that we're expecting in the UK. But widely, if you look at the
03:27gradient, it's really much of England and Wales experiencing this heat.
03:32Across parts of eastern Scotland, temperatures are into the low 20s,
03:36still warmer than it has been earlier on in the week. But across the west
03:40of Scotland, parts of Northern Ireland, still a little bit fresher here, even
03:43north Wales as well. So it's not everywhere that we're seeing this heat.
03:46If you live in the north, you're probably thinking, what is all the fuss
03:49about? And actually, it's going to be quite pleasant for the rest of the
03:52week for these areas. But where the heat really builds through today and
03:55into tomorrow, that's when we start to see the threat of a thundery
03:59breakdown. So how do the temperatures change into tomorrow? Well, you can
04:03see on the gradient, it's still England and Wales seeing the highest
04:06temperatures. You'll also see the heat building across parts of Europe as
04:09well. The Olympic Games are going to be hot and possibly thundery through
04:12the next few days. The heat does spread up to parts of Scotland as well
04:17later on on Wednesday. Again, we could see temperatures into the 30s on
04:22Wednesday, but it's starting because we've got the threat of thunderstorms
04:25from Wednesday. That's when we're starting to see a little less
04:28confidence in the highest temperatures, but still very good confidence that
04:32we'll see temperatures quite widely in the high 20s. How does that compare
04:36to average? So this is today. So you can see this is compared to the
04:41average for this month, so July's average. Of course, we're at the end
04:45of July now, but the difference between July and August average is
04:49quite little, is fairly minimal. So highest temperatures, greater than
04:55average temperatures across southern areas of England in particular.
05:00It's changing by itself there. Tomorrow, quite widely across central
05:06areas of England, across parts of Dorset and the south coast, we could
05:10see into parts of Hampshire. That's where we could see the highest
05:12temperatures tomorrow into the low 30s, but widely into Wales, northern
05:17England as well. You can start to see across Scotland, there are some
05:20specks of temperatures above average here, but around much of Northern
05:24Ireland, eastern areas of northern areas of the UK, just around average
05:29for the time of year. But I think there's still going to be quite a lot
05:32of sunshine around. So into Thursday, yes, the heat is starting to subside
05:38a bit more. That's because we've got a greater confidence of those
05:41showers breaking out, so there'll be more in the way of clouds through
05:44Thursday. But still, we're above average on those temperatures,
05:48temperatures still in the 20s, high 20s. And then Friday, again, we're
05:53still holding on to this warm air. We've not got that fresher air coming
05:56in until Friday evening. So particularly across eastern areas, we're
06:01seeing temperatures above average. And then finally, Saturday, what a
06:05change it is to Saturday. Blue's on the map. So if you're not enjoying
06:09this heat, as I said, Saturday, you should get that much fresher. But I
06:13think the humidity will stick around, temperatures will drop away.
06:18Definitely. So as I said, there is a risk of thunderstorms throughout the
06:23week. Let's have a closer look at that. So it's best if we have a look at
06:31the rainfall for the week. Now, before I show you this, know that with
06:36thunderstorms, if you don't know this already, showers, how they start to
06:39develop and how they come out on the graphics needs to be taken with a
06:43little bit of a pinch of salt, especially if you're looking further
06:47ahead. So this is going to give us a good idea of where the risk of seeing
06:51those showers and heavy thunderstorms is. So through Tuesday, we put the
07:00cloud on as well. And you can just see how bright it is and clear it is
07:05overnight. So through this evening, still fairly clear. But then as you
07:07start to see these sparks coming up from the south, this is what we called
07:12mid level instability. And it may come and clip parts of the south coast
07:18throughout Wednesday afternoon onwards. Now, this is where we've got quite a
07:22lot of uncertainty in exactly whether we're going to see any impacts from
07:26that rainfall. Now, we have issued a rainfall warning for Wednesday
07:30afternoon. This is the warning here, so it's across parts of, let's zoom in
07:38instead of zoom out. No, that's just giving you a closer look at the
07:44warning for Thursday. But this is where we've got the warning for Wednesday
07:47at the moment. It's a thunderstorm warning, and it's valid from, that's
07:52why it's going backwards. There we go. And it's valid from midday on
07:59Wednesday throughout Wednesday afternoon and up until midnight. So it's
08:04from Wednesday afternoon when we start to see that threat. As I said, there
08:07is lower confidence in this, but this is the area where we've got the
08:10potential for some thunderstorms. If you don't see any thunderstorms, what
08:15you might see is a particular type of cloud, which shows we've got that mid
08:19level instability. I mentioned that a minute ago. So mid level instability is
08:23when we have instability in our atmosphere that allows heavy showers to
08:27break out, thunderstorms, but it's from the middle level. So you may not see
08:33things reach the ground. You may not see any rainfall from any of this
08:37instability reach the ground, but you could see some lightning. Now, what a
08:40clear indication of that mid level instability is this type of cloud. So I
08:47don't know if you know what this is, but this is Alticumulus Castellanus. It's
08:51named after Castellanus because of its turret like shape. So you see this sort
08:56of turret starting to develop. It's Alticumulus, so it's a mid level cloud
09:00higher up in the troposphere, in our atmosphere. And you start to see it's
09:07just that instability. So you get the clouds bubbling away and you can get
09:10lightning from these clouds, but see no rain from them. So if you're along the
09:15south coast in that warning area, yes, there is a risk of thunderstorms
09:19breaking out. That's why we've got that thunderstorm warning. But there is also
09:26that's
09:28there is also a risk. You could also just see some of that Alticumulus cloud
09:32bubbling up and perhaps a bit of a lightning show. So definitely keep up
09:38to date with the forecast throughout the day for Wednesday. Now into Thursday,
09:42we get a bit more confidence on the risk of thunderstorms. There's a few
09:45things that happen through Thursday.
09:48So let's go back to
09:52Wednesday.
09:55So this is Wednesday evening. That's when we get in this sort of mid level
09:58instability coming up from the near continent. It could bring a threat
10:01thunderstorms. And then it becomes a bit more of a feature as it spreads up
10:08as it spreads up into parts of East Anglia and southeastern areas of
10:14England. And that threat kind of increases as it comes closer to the UK.
10:19And we could see some some heavier thunderstorms from there. There's also
10:22another feature as well that starts starts life
10:27over across parts of Wales. This is Wednesday evening starts across parts of
10:34Wales and then spreads into northeastern areas of England. Now, those
10:39are at the moment two fairly distinct areas where we could see some heavy
10:43rainfall. If we look at the rainfall totals for
10:5212 hours.
11:05If we look at the rainfall totals, there's some spots in these areas where
11:09we can see 25 millimetres of rainfall that could fall in quite a short period
11:14of time. And if you see any of those showers falling in the same places
11:17because they could come quite focused in some places, they bring a threat of
11:21some flooding issues. Obviously, we've got lightning as a risk with
11:25thunderstorms. There's a potential for some quite large hail as well. We could
11:29see hail of four centimetres in diameter, which is pretty large for the
11:34UK. And so as a result, we have got a thunderstorm warning in force. As I
11:38said, it's at the moment models are showing two different areas, parts of
11:42southeast and parts of northeastern England. But the warning because of that
11:46uncertainty means that we've we've encompassed a larger area than that to.
11:52Is that that's paused? And we've encompassed a larger area. Sorry, keeps
11:59changing. So I just don't want it to change again. And a larger area than
12:03that, that spreads into parts of Wales, as well as southern areas of England as
12:07well. But I think through Thursday morning, it's most likely across eastern
12:11areas. And then there's a third, the risk of thunderstorms that develops as
12:16well as a lot to focus on, which is the brilliance of the deep dive gives me the
12:20opportunity to show you a bit more information about this when we've got a
12:24bit more time. And so Thursday. It's just it's a feature more than anything, it's
12:31forced by something in the upper atmosphere, creating these areas where
12:36we could see this risk of thunderstorms. And then once that area clears out the
12:41way, we then can get stuff showers breaking out from the daytime heating of
12:47the ground. That's when you get those cumulus clouds that bubble up and get
12:51bigger and bigger to towering cumulus and then cumulonimbus clouds as well.
12:56And that's what these showers are from. And that's where we've got the risk of
13:00thunderstorms. So that larger thunderstorm warning is associated with
13:05both that feature that came through on Thursday morning, this feature here, and
13:10then that's going to be closely followed by this risk of showers. Now, these
13:15showers could break out here, there and everywhere, to be honest, most likely
13:19where we get the peak of the heat through Thursday morning or Thursday
13:24lunchtime. So it does kind of depend how quickly that feature moves away because
13:28there will be some cloud associated with the overnight, the Wednesday night
13:33feature. So you've got this cloud where you hold on to the cloud through the day.
13:36That just means the temperatures won't get quite as high. So we may not get the
13:40showers breaking out as widely across eastern areas. So it's most likely
13:44further west across parts of southern England, South Wales, where we could see
13:47those thunderstorms into Thursday afternoon. But we've got a big warning
13:50area for the whole of Thursday at the moment. So stay tuned for more details
13:56on that. If you've got any questions about thunderstorms, then make sure you
14:00just leave your comments and we'll be having a look at them later on in the
14:03day. So as I said, there is a change on the way for the weekend. We've got low
14:09pressure returning after the brief interlude of the summer burst. And as I
14:16said, it's not it's not been it's not entirely widespread, this heat, but I
14:19think a lot of us will get away with some dry and pleasant weather. And then
14:25we see this change into the weekend.
14:29Low pressure dominating by Friday and temperatures returning much closer to
14:34average from Friday and actually getting much fresher on on Saturday. So
14:39a notably colder day to come on Saturday. Low pressure dominating actually
14:44could be that's the jet stream. So I'm gonna be quite as windy as that, but it
14:47could be quite windy with this low pressure system up to the north and west
14:51of the UK through Saturday. How does that change through the weekend?
14:57So we're expecting this weather front to to sweep through introducing that
15:02fresher air bit more widely across the UK. But there is some uncertainty on
15:06the timings of this weather front. It may develop a wave on it, meaning the
15:10rain might linger a bit more in the southeast through Sunday morning
15:15as well. And then, but once it does clear, we get a bit of a ridge building
15:20in. But then there's the next frontal system coming in from the south and
15:24east, south and west,
15:27from the south and west, bringing with it more rain. It's this low pressure
15:31system. It really developed into quite a big system and sticks with us through
15:35much of the week. And that's the trend through next week is for low pressure
15:39to dominate, but sat up to the north of the UK. And so what that means is that
15:45wetter weather is more likely across northern areas, western areas, dry
15:49weather across the south and east. It's very often the case in the UK's weather.
15:53Westerlies are our dominant wind direction. So kind of typical summery
15:59weather throughout next week and into the weekend
16:03is expected. So that low pressure is expected to dominate through much of
16:07the week. This is the most likely pressure pattern. This is for Tuesday,
16:11next Tuesday, the 6th of August. And if you look at these, I was having a look
16:16at these earlier. They all look the same through much of the week. This low
16:20pressure just moving gradually eastwards across the country. Some of
16:24these fronts will, most of these fronts will likely clear to the east through
16:28the southeast quite quickly. But because the rain may become what we
16:32call aligned with the wind direction that can make them stick around for
16:36longer. And that's when we get those wiggles and waves on weather fronts.
16:40And that's when you can get the rainfall totals really pepping up. So
16:43there is the potential for some heavier rain still in the southeast. But I
16:46think most frequent wet and windy weather north and western areas, most
16:51frequent dry and brighter weather through next week's south and eastern
16:54areas. That's quite clear in the anomalies map for the rainfall. This is
17:00for the whole week from the 5th of August to the 12th of August. So wetter
17:05than average weather across western areas. It's not significantly wetter
17:09than average. But if you looked at this map for this week, they're all brown
17:13showing the drier than average. So it's definitely gonna be a different week
17:16next week. But kind of around average, which will probably be quite pleasant
17:21really most of the time across eastern areas, including eastern areas of
17:24Scotland, parts of eastern northern England as well. So it's not just the
17:27southeast that we'll see any nice weather through next week. And the
17:32temperatures will also be impacted by that. Because with that low pressure in
17:35that position, that brings us northwesterlies, westerlies, none of
17:40those southerlies that we're seeing at the moment. And that introduces that
17:43mild air. So likely will be temperatures around average. You can see the blues
17:48on the map here show below average temperatures across the northwest when
17:52we see that more frequent wetter and windier weather. But still across
17:56eastern areas, potential for some warmer than average weather. So
18:00whenever the sun does shine will be in August by that point, it's still pretty
18:03nice. So I think it's not going to be as unsettled as it has been for a lot
18:08of this summer through next week, but certainly not as settled and dry and
18:12sunny as we're seeing or as hot even as we're seeing this week. So it has
18:17definitely or definitely is a hot week this week. We've seen quite cool
18:23weather so far. And this summer, there's been brief interludes of summer.
18:28And but when the temperatures really ramp up, and they ramp up quite quickly
18:34in the in the UK. And what I wanted to talk about next, as I mentioned
18:39earlier was the state of the UK climate report. Now it's a report that we've
18:43put together here at the Met Office with some of our partners, it is a huge
18:47report, you can find the full report online. And but today, I just wanted to
18:53go over a few more, a few details in it to pick out some key pieces of
18:57information. And joining me in the studio today is senior scientist here
19:01at the Met Office, Mike Kendon. Hi, Mike.
19:04Hello.
19:04How are you doing?
19:05Hello. Good, thank you.
19:06Good, good. And so you are an expert in the UK state of the climate report.
19:11And first of all, maybe just give us a bit more detail about what the report
19:15involves, a bit of background on it.
19:17Sure, yeah. Okay. Well, there's a lot of information about this report.
19:21Basically, it's a summary of what the observations from the network of
19:25weather stations around the UK are telling us about our climate and how it
19:30is changing. So we have a network of about 250 automatic weather stations
19:37around the UK, and another 100 or 150 or so manual weather stations, which
19:42are read daily. And we have observations from these stations that go
19:47back, they go back actually historically all the way back to the 19th
19:51century. And they tell us very clearly that our climate is changing. It is
19:56changing right now. So the report is looking at year 2023, what happened in
20:032023, in the context of these long term climate records going back. And as
20:08well as looking at 2023, we also look at the most recent decade, 2014 to
20:132023. Because that provides us with, if you like a snapshot of where our
20:18climate is at right now.
20:20So it takes a look at 2023 as a whole, and what are some of the key events
20:26that for those that can't quite remember last year, let alone yesterday,
20:31and what are some of the key events that we had in the UK in 2023?
20:35Sure, well, I think the first thing to say, of course, is that it was another
20:38very warm year, overall. So it was actually the second warmest year on
20:43record for the UK, behind the warmest year, which was 2022, the previous
20:49year. And when we look at the statistics overall, for this annual
20:55temperature series for the UK from 1884, the most recent 10 years is the
21:01warmest 10 year period in the whole record. And it includes six of the 10
21:05warmest years. So we're seeing a lot more extremes in temperature in our
21:11climate than we we did in the past. I mean, in fact, we had four months of
21:15the year were in the top 10 warmest months, which were February, May, June
21:22and September.
21:23June was a particularly notable month, wasn't it?
21:25It was.
21:26The very hot start to the summer.
21:27It was exceptionally warm. It really, really was very, very warm indeed. It
21:31actually smashed previous records for June. And actually, one of the
21:36contributing factors to that was a marine heatwave, which is estimated,
21:42studies estimated that that raised the UK temperature by around about 0.6 of a
21:48degree. So that obviously lifted it further. But yes, it was absolutely a
21:51record warm June.
21:53And so the report looks at key events from the past year. And it looks at so
21:58many different things, such a long report, I was having a flick through
22:01earlier. But there are also some key findings of how we then put that data in
22:06to context with our changing climate, as you said. And so what are those key
22:10findings that have come out of this year's report?
22:13Sure. Well, so one of the key things is if we look at temperature extremes. So
22:18in particular, if we look at the number of days that are exceeding temperature
22:22thresholds of 20, 25, 28, 30, or 32 degrees. So we could show a map of that.
22:30We've got some of those prepared. So yeah, you said you looked at a few
22:34different thresholds, but 28, we're using 28 degrees in the map here. So
22:39what does this one show?
22:40Okay, so this is showing us for the period 1961-1990, how many days on
22:48average for each of these regions see somewhere in that region exceeding 28
22:54degrees. So we can regard that as if you'd like a hot day. Yeah. And so you
22:58can see the scale of this map goes up to 20 days. And you can see
23:03climatologically, so the warmest areas of the UK are in the south and the
23:07southeast. Yeah, so this is 1961-1990. But if I look at the most, if we look
23:13at the most recent decade, can you see how the reds have really, really
23:18dramatically expanded across that map? So in this report, we summarise
23:22statistics, which look at the most recent decade. And we look at a number
23:26of these thresholds. So we look at 20 degrees, which we've described as
23:29pleasant, 25 degrees, which we've described as warm days, and 28 as hot
23:35days, 30 and 32 degrees, which would be extremely hot days, very hot and
23:40extremely hot days. What is really interesting is these are all increasing.
23:45But whereas when we look at the most recent decade, compared to 1961-90, the
23:50number of pleasant days has increased by about 40%. And the number of warm
23:55days has increased by about 60%. The number of hot days has doubled. And the
24:01number of very hot and extremely hot days has actually trebled. So we're
24:06seeing a disproportionately greater increase for the higher temperatures,
24:11the more extremes of temperature. And of course, yes, absolutely. And of
24:14course, it's those that are of most significance, really, when you think
24:17about impacts on public health. So, you know, the fact that these extremes are
24:23changing so fast is really of concern.
24:26Yeah, definitely. And that is a major piece that's come out of the report. So
24:30that's kind of showing the daily extremes, I suppose. How does it fit in
24:36with sort of seasonal or annual records? And how are those changing?
24:41Yeah, that's a good question. We've also looked at that as well. So if we look at
24:48another couple of figures in the report, there's lots of figures in the report, I
24:52can only show a couple really. But just to look at this, this is looking at by
24:56decade, the number of the number of occurrences that are in top 10, the top
25:0310 warmest of monthly, seasonal and annual temperature series for counties
25:09of the UK, we've got like 97 county areas of the UK. And we're summing them
25:14up. So we have monthly top 10 occurrences in blue, seasonal in orange
25:20and annual in green. And this is looking at the top 10 warmest and the top 10
25:25coldest. So the first thing that we'd say is if our climate was what we'd call
25:30stationary, so if it wasn't changing, we'd broadly expect these bars to be a
25:34similar height across here. And they are for a lot of actually for the
25:39they are. Yes. But what's happened is actually, they are overwhelmingly
25:43occurring the towards the far end of the series. So climate change is
25:47dramatically increasing the chance of us having a record warm month, or, you
25:51know, a top 10 warmest month, seasonal year. So we're actually at the point
25:55now, where around about one in four months, one in three seasons, and every
26:02every other year is falling in the top 10 warmest of our series. Wow. So
26:08that's what we're seeing based on the observations. And the flip side of that
26:12is, of course, the other way around with cold temperature records, these are
26:16absolutely disappearing. So the last record cold month that we had for the UK
26:20was December 2010. Since then, we've had a large number of record, you know,
26:25we've had a significant number of record months since then. So we're seeing
26:28dramatic changes in these records as well as a result of our climate
26:32changing. And we know why these are happening. You know, studies have shown
26:36that if we look at the year overall, 2023, the chance of a year occurring
26:43like that, as a result of climate change is increased by around about a
26:49factor of 150. We know that the record warm June that we had, and an
26:53exceptional we had a really notable heatwave in September as well. People
26:59might remember it was 30 degrees for seven days in a row. We've never had
27:03seven days in a row, seven days in a row. That's the first time that's
27:05happened. So all of these things, studies have shown that they're more
27:08likely as a result of the fact that our climate is changing.
27:11Yes, this is such a stark, you can just see it so obvious on there. And I
27:17think it makes it it's even more notable when we have the colder than
27:21even just colder than average, to be honest, or disappointing, disappointing
27:25starts to the summer that we've had. So far, obviously, there's a bit of a
27:29change to that at the moment. But it becomes more notable because we are
27:33expectations are changing because our climate is changing.
27:36Yeah, that's a really good point, I think. So, you know, when we look at
27:40our climate, and we're looking at our statistics, we generally monitoring
27:45those against a 30 year baseline period. So that baseline period is it
27:51follows World Meteorological Organization guidelines. And we use
27:561991-2020 as the most recent 30 year period, and 1961-1990 as kind of a
28:03baseline reference period. But what's really interesting is that 30 years is
28:08also roughly one human generation. I mean, actually, in my own family, a
28:12human generation is about 40 years, if not more. But that's a typically a
28:17human generation, one generation. So what we're talking about is we're
28:21talking about generational changes in our climate. So what, for example, my
28:26father would have regarded as a normal climate, when he was my age, what my
28:30children regard, will regard as a normal climate, when they reach my age.
28:35Yeah, so I guess that's why we also the perspective of the weather and the
28:40perception rather of the weather is really changing. You can see between
28:44different generations of what people have experienced, like the summer of
28:481976 is one that sticks out for lots of people.
28:52Yes, absolutely. And that was still a really, really exceptional summer,
28:55actually, looking at the previous graphic we showed, which is looking at the
28:59number of days exceeding thresholds. Actually, 1976 was exceptional, really,
29:06for the persistence of the heat that year, the number of days exceeding 30
29:10degrees. But actually, the highest temperature that year, around about 35,
29:15was not exceptional in the context of the current climate. You've got to
29:18remember that only the previous year, 2022, we had 40 degrees in the UK for
29:25the first time. And we saw, you know, we saw some very stations with very
29:30long running records by places like Durham, and Sheffield, and so on, you
29:35know, well over a century of records where they're breaking an all time
29:38temperature record by a margin of three or even four degrees. So quite
29:42extraordinary. And so our climate is really changing. And just to go back to
29:46the generational thing, we do have another figure.
29:48Yeah, so you're saying it's changed from your father to you, and then now for your
29:52children, like what should people be expecting for the future?
29:55Yeah, there's a key point, isn't it? And I mean, one of the things that one of
30:00the key pieces of work done here in the Hadley Centre in the maths office is
30:04running climate projections, using high resolution climate models running out to
30:08the future to try to understand how climate change is going to play out. And
30:15so what this graph shows is UK annual mean temperature, UK annual mean
30:22temperature. And we're looking at the observations in blue from 1884 to 2023.
30:32And then beyond that, sorry, beyond that, beyond that, we have this plume of a
30:40range of outcomes heading towards the end of the century, depending on so that
30:45depends on how much more we emit in terms of greenhouse gases into the
30:49atmosphere in the future. And you can see there's a range of possibilities with
30:53this. But what you can see really the most the key thing to see is that how
31:00how much this increases going into the future. So we have this record that goes
31:04back to 1884. So it's more than a century. And generally speaking,
31:08fluctuations have we been within about a half a degree of the average over that
31:13period. In fact, we have an even longer series called Central England
31:17temperature, which goes back three centuries and fluctuations within that
31:21in the annual mean temperature, Central England temperature within about a half
31:25a degree over that period. What we're now looking at going out to the end of
31:30the century is under what we described as a medium emission scenario. So this is
31:37one of the one of the one of the different scenarios being looked at. A
31:41year like 2023, by the middle of the century, it will be considered a fairly
31:47average year. And by the end of the century, that will be considered a cool
31:51year. And remember that this at the moment is the second warmest year on
31:55record. And actually, studies have shown that even in the current climate as
31:59potential for a year that's to be much warmer than year 2023. So generational
32:05changes, if you think about a general rational change being, you know, two of
32:11the gridline spacings on this chart, say, or something like that, we're seeing
32:15these dramatic changes in a relatively short space of time in our climate.
32:18Yeah, and I think you can see the line is sort of it goes up and down. This is
32:21key for temperature, isn't it? So it's the trends and how you're more likely to
32:26have those warmer years or warmer months, or record-breaking events. But
32:32you're still going to have that variation in our climate. So you're still
32:36going to have those cooler months. And so we're going to continue to have that
32:41variation in the future, aren't we? But it's the warmer things that become more
32:45likely.
32:45So there's these two things playing out. There's the large variability that we
32:50all know in our climate, that we all know about. And there's also climate
32:54change. And it's these two things happening together. And effectively, it's
33:00basically climate change is kind of weighing the dice, if you like. So the
33:04chance of getting a record warm month or season or year or a really
33:09significant heatwave is greatly increased as a result of our changing
33:14climate, whereas the chance of getting a cold spell is reduced. Now, that
33:20is not to say we won't still get some spells of severe winter weather, but
33:24they tend to be much less frequent than in the past. So for example, I
33:28remember when I was a child, some quite lengthy spells with snow on the
33:34ground for a couple of weeks at a time in Leicestershire in the 1980s, for
33:39example. Temperatures falling to minus 20 in quite a few years during that
33:48time. Those are very much more unusual now than in the past.
33:51Definitely. Mike, it has been so interesting to cover a bit more about
33:55the report. Thank you so much for taking the time for joining us. And thank
33:59you very much. I hope you've enjoyed today's deep dive. If you've got any
34:03questions about the state of the climate report from 2023 or anything
34:07about the weather for the next few days, what we can expect for the
34:10upcoming heat or the heat we've already seen, then make sure you leave some
34:15comments. I'll be around to answer your comments throughout the rest of
34:17the day. But thank you again, Mike. Thank you very much for joining us. And
34:21I'll see you again soon.