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00:00Great to have you on NDTV Profit and an interesting day with so much to unpack.
00:05Let's just talk about what the political upheaval or the big moves over the weekend mean for global
00:11markets. Biden bowing out was expected. It was expected to happen over the weekend. He's backed
00:18Kamala Harris. Do you see that going down smoothly or some uncertainty there? Because she still has
00:24to win the votes of all the Democrat delegates before she's actually the nominee, isn't it?
00:30Yes. I need to begin by saying, you know, I've been with you for about 20 years and I don't know
00:36that we've had a discussion that's really, you know, intersected with politics like today's will.
00:45So I do have to say that anything I say is my opinion and does not reflect, you know,
00:51anyone else's opinion. And I should probably also let the audience know that I am a Democrat.
00:57So my view is going to be somewhat biased. I am now even more excited to hear your answer,
01:04Seth. How are you feeling? Do you think Kamala is the best bet and has the whole,
01:10you know, sequence of events over the last 48 hours made a Trump victory more probable?
01:18More probable. Or I would say less probable. First of all, I should also say that, you know,
01:27I'm here in California, in San Francisco. This is her home turf. She was a prosecutor,
01:36then a senator. I think it's going to be very tough. Just before getting ready for this hit
01:45today, I guess Trump announced he has no intention of being in a debate with,
01:53doing the debate that was scheduled for September. And I think a debate with Kamala
02:00Harris would be very interesting. She's highly trained and I think it would just be,
02:08really set the stage for a lot of excitement. But the market, as you said, I think baked in
02:19the Biden announcement. And we can see that because futures have not really moved much.
02:24The market's pretty flat today. Seth, good evening to you. Now,
02:31while you're a Democrat, I would love to know an independent opinion of what
02:35the markets will have in store for them in the run-up. Because if the shooting incident
02:42made the markets believe that Trump was a shoo-in, and if you are saying that this
02:46throws the election wide open, what does it mean for equities? They may not have reacted overnight.
02:51What's next until November 4th? A number of things. This is going to be a,
02:59will end up being, I think, a policy-driven election. And we're also going to have to wait
03:05and see who the vice president nominee is going to be. Because I think that's also going to drive
03:12policy and give us a lot of guidance. You know, there's a big difference in the Biden-Harris
03:22policy in terms of internationalism versus protectionism, nationalism. And
03:31we have seen a lot of new infrastructure investing over the last few years. And I would imagine
03:39that that's the same kind of thing we're going to see here under, you know, potentially a Harris
03:45or other Democrat president. But there's, you know, it's very difficult as a matter of principle
03:56for many Americans to elect someone who has been convicted of 34 felonies and who has
04:07been found liable for sexual assault and who has been in the midst of taking away a lot of
04:16rights for women. And I think that there's going to be a lot of excitement in the Democratic
04:24side and that independents who may have gone with Trump may be looking at that.
04:33Seth, do you expect Kamala to sail through for the Democrat nominee? I mean, President Obama
04:40said we're in uncharted waters here. Could there be more contenders popping up or is she a shoo-in
04:47right now, in your view? You know, we are a democracy and there's opportunities for others
04:53to present themselves. And there's certainly money behind other candidates, possible candidates. But
04:58yes, I actually think that she, shoo-in may be a little strong, but I would be surprised
05:06if another nominee materializes. Well, it is history of sorts. Joe Biden entered politics
05:14as one of the youngest senators in American history. And of course, he leaves as the oldest
05:20president. So, of course, it's a moment, Seth. And I think while we may not be able to relate
05:25to your emotion completely, it is significant because Biden has done so much good for the U.S.
05:30So, it comes at a point when it's his health and not his policies that are leading him to step out.
05:36But just let's quickly change focus and talk about the other important trigger for the markets. 35
05:41percent of the S&P 500 will report earnings this week from Tesla, Microsoft and Google.
05:48Markets have had a fantastic run from the start of this year. Do you now feel like it's best off
05:53to take profits off the table? While politics could be one reason to give a bit of uncertainty
06:00to the markets, maybe it is just looking for a cue to take profits. Do you think it's best to
06:05get out and then come back in? I don't know how much the market run up really reflects
06:14politics. You know, we've had a pretty good economy. What the biggest difference is that
06:22we have so many technology stocks dominating the large cap side of the market.
06:29And some of those like Nvidia, of course, have gone up like crazy. So,
06:37I guess it depends on whether someone's a trader or a long-term investor. But I don't anticipate
06:45big market withdrawals based on the run ups that we've had. I think we have to see how the Fed
06:54responds. You know, we have a very impaired real estate market here in the U.S. and those
07:03symptoms are just coming out stronger and stronger. And real estate drives a big piece
07:08of our economy. So, I think we have to look at what the Fed's going to do.
07:13Thanks, Seth. It's going to be a very important week. I guess when you come back to work
07:17later today or Monday morning, it's going to be a reaction to Biden stepping down,
07:2235 percent of the S&P reporting earnings, a potential ceasefire in Gaza and U.S. GDP data
07:29that your markets will be eyeing. But thank you. Have a good weekend or whatever it is.
07:34Thank you.
07:34And we'll see you soon.
07:35Yeah, thanks for having me.
07:37Thank you.