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00:00The final full day of two of the MLB all-star break. Of course we have the
00:06all-star game on Tuesday, the home run derby on Monday. Four full days off from
00:11regular season action but two days without any form of baseball. A full
00:16Friday slate resumes the season tomorrow. It's not exactly the second
00:21half but we'll call it that for all intensive purposes. Every team around MLB
00:26has played at least 95 games of the 162. Here we will update the playoff picture
00:33around the bigs and what you need to know. Current American League playoff
00:38picture in the extended and expanded postseason. Here is one through six. The
00:43Guardians the best record overall in the AL. They are of course atop the American
00:48League Central. They have a half game advantage over the O's who have only a
00:52one-game lead in the AL East. The Mariners holding on to a one-game lead as
00:57well in the American League West which means the three wildcard teams the New
01:01York Yankees the Minnesota Twins and the Boston Red Sox in what is expected to be
01:06a very competitive race for those three spots around the AL. Yes it is and also
01:12it should be not a surprise to many people which might be when you start
01:16talking about the Orioles and the Yankees as the best two teams in the
01:18American League and then say okay well wait a second these standings say the
01:22Guardians have the best record overall in the American League. They played great
01:26baseball but understand this from a competitive standpoint yes they're a
01:29good team here but similar to what we see so many times not necessarily in the
01:33NFL but more in the NBA. It's not about the regular season and sometimes that's
01:37a little bit unfair because it wasn't as if the Guardians have played nine games
01:40like hey they're six and three they're a good ballclub. They played as Ben said
01:44over 90 games and that's a key indicator but also when you get to the playoffs
01:48how do these rosters match up against each other and the reason I brought up
01:51the NBA is just in the recent past like remember when the Nets were not even
01:55going to make the playoffs but like still factored in as the best overall
01:58team odds wise or second overall team odds wise in the Eastern Conference if
02:01they did make the playoffs that's kind of wacky here and that's sort of what
02:04we're looking at with the Guardians a very good baseball team but from my
02:07perspective I don't know if they'll be able to tangle with yet the Orioles or
02:11the Yankees depending on what changes are made to all three of those ball
02:14clubs before they actually get the postseason so when I look at those
02:18standings here there's a lot of respect for the Guardians in the regular season
02:21and agreed you are what your record says you are I just don't know if that
02:25record Ben is going to translate once we get into the playoffs but kudos to them
02:28leading the pack here coming out of the all-star break yeah absolutely so and
02:33those odds you see to your right the division prices the Yankees actually a
02:37better number to win the American League East than Baltimore who right now sits
02:42in first by a full game it could have been a lot more than that the O's
02:46struggling in their final week before the all-star break swept at home by the
02:49Cubs lost two of three in the weekend set against the New York Yankees unable
02:54to take advantage of some bad baseball out of the Bronx Bombers who entered the
02:59series against the O's having lost 17 of their last 23 games but did win two of
03:07those final three to cut it to just a one game lead in the American League
03:11East now let's go to the wild card there are five teams now in the wild card
03:16chase including the three that occupy those three AL wild-card spots that are
03:22at least four games above 500 or better when we look at the National League in
03:27just a moment you will see the difference there in what we expect to be
03:31a competitive wild-card race in both leagues the Yankees sit atop they have a
03:36three-game lead over Minnesota who has a half game lead over the Red Sox Boston
03:41two games in front of KC three and a half games in front of the Astros will
03:47make a point on Houston's playoff price and that postseason number in just a
03:52moment but the three teams that if the season ended today at the all-star break
03:56of course it does not that would be in the wild card that would be the Yankees
04:01the twins and the Red Sox that's incredible the Red Sox again if the
04:05season ends today would be in the playoff something that would be unheard
04:08of release untalked about we should say coming out of spring training not a lot
04:11of expectations for the Red Sox it's almost like a show-me year for some of
04:15these young players then we might add on in the offseason and they're quite
04:18frankly I believe they are gonna make the playoffs when it's all said and done
04:21but there are been some really talented teams that are not right now in the
04:25playoffs you take a look at the Kansas City Royals say well we didn't expect a
04:28ton from them coming into the season no they're pretty talented here that
04:31pitching staff is very good the bullpen is okay and that one through nines got
04:34superstar players like Bobby which you and you're in Salvador Perez you know
04:37the past watches in there there's a lot of fun players we'll see how they can
04:40hold up their end of the bargain in the second half but then you're getting into
04:43those teams that usually are perennial playoff teams right the Houston Astros
04:47three and a half games back the Tampa Bay Rays five and a half games back now
04:51the Tigers 47 and 50 I don't think we anticipated too much coming out of
04:55spring training having a decent season hovering around that 500 mark and trying
04:58to stay around getting into the wildcard but right behind them are those Texas
05:02Rangers 46 and 50 they have way more pedigree but then a lot of teams that we
05:06just stated they won the World Series last year and are now getting healthy I
05:10think that's one of those teams we can watch and have fun with but it's
05:13interesting to see if it ended today Yankees Twins Red Sox but a lot of
05:16talent just outside of those three wildcard spots we'll see how they play
05:21the rest of the way to try to play themselves into a playoff position
05:25Boston is 53 and 42 11 games above 500 it is the same exact record as the
05:33Atlanta Braves and the Braves have a substantial lead for that top spot in
05:37the National League wildcard race so the team that is in the last wildcard spot
05:41in the AL has the same exact record and is the same amount of games above 500 as
05:46the team in the top spot comfortably in the National League what does that mean
05:50a lot of good quality ball clubs in the race for the postseason in the AL because
05:56Donnie for a good majority of the first two and a half months or so of this
06:00Major League Baseball campaign what was one of the stories around the entirety
06:04of the league mediocre ball a couple of teams above 500 four or five in each
06:10league with those teams sitting atop the division doing really well but not
06:15really getting pushed it seems as though as we have reached the all-star break we
06:20are starting to find better baseball across the league you'll see there by
06:24the way in the playoff prizes for the wildcard chase that we have showed you
06:27the Yankees number is off the board expected to be a playoff team and the
06:31divisional favorites to win the American League East despite trailing by a game
06:35the Twins juiced at a minus 500 price but then you'll see both the Red Sox and
06:40the Astros also in minus money the Scrolls have a better price to be an
06:45American League playoff team then even Boston in Houston trails the Red Sox by
06:51three and a half games why is that because of the race in the American
06:54League West as well the Astros only a game behind the Seattle Mariners the M's
07:00entered the all-star break losers of nine of their last 14 Houston has won
07:0517 of its last 23 games to get back in a playoff contention and four games above
07:11500 and enjoy that parody while you can right now there's three sections of the
07:16Major League Baseball season that I always like to break up it's the opening
07:19which would be let you say the month of April everybody thinks they can make the
07:22playoffs everybody thinks they can be a contender you know numbers don't really
07:26matter the Pittsburgh Pirates are in first place they're an amazing baseball
07:29team we see this on a year-to-year basis with some teams we didn't expect to be
07:32there then you have the middle of the season where things start to settle in
07:35then there's post trade deadline which we're coming up in in about two weeks at
07:38this point and the reason I say parody is most teams are still trying to win
07:42baseball games the minute you have the trade deadline and your team decides to
07:46go in for the playoffs or out for the playoffs you also start to see those
07:50taxes where if a price point for an underdog was plus 150 they're not gonna
07:53be plus 175 plus 185 because it's apparent their goal is to not win
07:58baseball games it's to see where players fit in the future of their team for the
08:02next couple years here get ready for that to happen so when you take a look
08:05at the White Sox the Athletics the Angels and also quite frankly the Toronto
08:09Blue Jays we're just talking American League right now if they decide to sell
08:12that's gonna be one to watch because you go from hey man this team was
08:16competitive for a while why not anymore you'll know the reason why because that
08:19front office told the manager and his general manager you know what this year
08:24is gone we're trading players away we're not really trying to win let's get to
08:27evaluation mode and you can take advantage of that on the opposite side
08:30with some of these favorites good time to stack up some wins the Yankees still
08:35the favorites to win the American League pennant at plus 240 over half a dollar in
08:39front of the O's again Baltimore has the better record and a lead in the division
08:44but the Yankees the better odds outlook in every single category same story
08:49in the American League Central and the American League West the twins have a
08:54better price to win the pennant but trail the Guardians by four and a half
08:57games in the division the Astros trail the Mariners by a game but have a better
09:02price to win the American League pennant as well of course the Astros have played
09:06in each of the last seven American League championship series we'll talk
09:12about Houston's price a little bit later on in the AL West but now to the
09:17National League we go up now first the American League postseason picture now
09:21the NL the Phillies have the best record in all of MLB 62 and 34 at the all-star
09:28break they sit in that top spot with a comfortable lead over the LA Dodgers of
09:34course these two faced each other at this point last week in Philadelphia and
09:38the Phil swept LA a six and a half game advantage for the fight and to top
09:43everybody in the National League the Brewers a top the National League
09:47Central third best mark 55 and 42 in front of the Braves who had that top
09:53spot in the National League wild-card race the Cardinals there as well in the
09:58New York Mets turning things on since the month of June when they were nine
10:03games below 500 entering occupy that third and final and our wild-card spot
10:09with a game lead over both the D backs and the Padres DRS what do you make of
10:14the National League playoff picture at the all-star break I mean we talked
10:18about parody I don't really think there's all that much parody here in the
10:21National League because when you take a look at legitimate teams to win the
10:24pennant it probably starts and ends with the Philadelphia Phillies and the Los
10:28Angeles Dodgers now granted it's not a slight to say that Milwaukee is a solid
10:32team they are but they don't have a chance the Atlanta Braves 53 and 42 they
10:36are but they really don't have a chance st. Louis Cardinals Mets Diamondbacks
10:39come on now those teams probably won't going to challenge at the top granted
10:43you could have disaster scenarios on teams the Dodgers can all get injured
10:46the Phillies can all get injured we understand where we're going with that
10:49but also as we get to a little bit later in the pick six players to watch down
10:53the stretch there's one that I'm not going to reveal but he is on the Atlanta
10:56Braves as somebody I need to see more of down the stretch to see if Atlanta can
11:00be a true competitor but if we're just looking at the marketplace it is quite
11:03shocking though to see the Philadelphia Phillies it's okay eight and a half game
11:06lead in their own division that probably means the Dodgers only two to three
11:09games back the Dodgers six and a half games back which is direct you know
11:13reflection of what the Phillies did to the Dodgers in that three game sweep
11:16really to buffer that granted the Phillies didn't have a great series
11:19against the Oakland Athletics and the run differential which is a plus 110
11:22took a 15 point shot there on that last day they got crushed by 15 runs against
11:28of all teams the Athletics but I do think the Phillies right now looking at
11:31their pitching staff it's healthy Zach Wheeler Ranger Suarez got an extra break
11:35before the all-star break now they'll be able to come back in full form you take
11:38a look at JT Ramuto one of the best catchers in Major League Baseball he's
11:42set to come back within the week here Bryce Harper is healthy Schwerber is
11:45healthy injuries do happen during the season quite frankly to happen to the
11:48Philadelphia Phillies as well Atlanta Braves but just a synopsis overall it
11:52looks for me right now the Philadelphia Phillies right now are the best team in
11:56Major League Baseball and they should be slotted in that position here as that
11:59number one seed. Injuries certainly plaguing the LA Dodgers as well there is
12:04little doubt that top to bottom when fully healthy the Dodgers have the
12:08advantage roster-wise starting staff rise around Major League Baseball just
12:13top to bottom everything taken into account but they are not healthy at the
12:18moment Tyler Glass now we expect to come back pretty quickly after the all-star
12:22break but on the IL Yoshinobu Yamamoto not exactly going to be a quick return
12:27from his injured list time same with Mookie Betts for the offensive lineup
12:33for LA all that said you'd have to look at the Phillies and give them the edge
12:37at this moment now let's talk about the National League in those division
12:43standings and how it plays into the wild-card race we shared in the American
12:47League two of the three divisions separated by only a game Baltimore in
12:50front of New York in the AL East Seattle in front of Houston in the AL West the
12:55largest divisional lead in the American League it's in the Central the Guardians
12:59four and a half games in front of the Twins but Minnesota shortening that gap
13:03the shortest gap between the top two teams in the National League is the NL
13:08Central where Milwaukee leads st. Louis by four and a half games the Dodgers up
13:13by seven games in front of both the D backs and the Padres and LA has won the
13:18National League West 10 of the last 11 years Philadelphia an eight and a half
13:22game advantage over the Atlanta Braves of the Braves have won the division each
13:26of the past six seasons but Philly well in front minus 600 to win the National
13:31League East minus 3,000 still for the Dodgers to win the NL West despite
13:36losing eight of their last 11 games entering the all-star break so again
13:40that leads us to where we are in the wild-card watch the Braves comfortable
13:45with that top spot there more than three and a half games in front of the st.
13:49Louis Cardinals who had the second position then things get interesting
13:53the Mets in a wild-card spot at this moment a full game in front of the D
13:59backs the Padres and then the Pirates surfacing back to an even 500 and Donnie
14:05we saw around the American League really where you look at things six teams that
14:09have a minus money price to get into the postseason the Yankees in a wild-card
14:13spot off the board the twins minus 500 notice there is only one team in the
14:19wild-card race at this moment with a minus money price and that's the Braves
14:24well in front for the top spot at minus 4,000 the oddsmakers pretty much
14:29alluding to the idea the race for the wild-card spots in the National League
14:34uncertain up in the air chaotic and something to monitor here after the
14:40all-star break comes to a close absolutely and so many times we equate
14:44these to other sports Ben particularly with college football right it's going
14:48to have a much of an impact profound impact on the regular season expanding
14:52the playoff more teams more schools are brought into the equation which means a
14:56better regular season college football schedule than what we had in the past
15:00we're doing the same thing now with Major League Baseball the advent of that
15:03third wild-card spot take a look at this now outside of the Marlins Rockies and
15:07Nationals which you could probably wipe off right now the Cubs three and a half
15:10games back of that final spot the Reds three Giants three Pirates one and a
15:14half Padres and Diamondbacks one game back the Mets in Cardinals and Braves
15:18this is fantastic for baseball it brings in organizations that might be
15:22ultimate sellers at the deadline with maybe one wild-card just to now saying
15:26you know what maybe we won't sell at the deadline maybe we'll give our fans
15:30something maybe we'll add a bat as opposed to sell about at this point so
15:33when I take a look at the National League I do think it's very top-sided
15:37with the Dodgers in the Phillies but that doesn't mean you can't have fun and
15:40also more meaningful baseball down the stretch as a handicapper Ben who likes
15:44to go in that final three weeks of the season going like all right this team's
15:47way out and this team's way out nobody's gonna play for anything go okay let me
15:50bet the Pirates for the full game ago hey by the way just got word they're
15:54gonna try a double a reliever as their closer of three to two just to see how
15:58he performs you don't want to see that with money on the line you want teams
16:01that are in it with legitimate chance to make the playoffs with a couple weeks
16:04left to help your handicap and you're getting that right here in the National
16:07League I love what I see parity is fantastic in the National League to keep
16:11our interest late in the season Ben it's a great point it changes the handicap it
16:16changes the ideas and philosophies for front offices ahead of the trade
16:21deadline but still in terms of contenders it does seem to be a two-team
16:26race the Dodgers and the Phillies LA still in front by 35 cents plus 175 in
16:32front of the Phil's at plus 210 more on the playoff picture at the all-star
16:37breakup next final day of the Major League Baseball all-star break before
16:41the home stretch of this season kicks off tomorrow with a full slate on a
16:45Friday around MLB let's go big picture let's look at the league as a whole
16:51right now the winning division of a World Series championship and how we
16:56might form a wager here the two Eastern divisions lead the way in the NL East
17:02it's the Phil's the Braves and the Mets there would be three teams out of that
17:06division right now into the NL playoff bracket if the season ended today same
17:10story in the American League East the Orioles as the division winner one game
17:15in front of the Yankees but the Red Sox hold on to that third and final American
17:19League wild-card spot as well the National League West has the Dodgers and
17:24that's why the price is plus 290 before we get into a large drop-off at 8 to 1
17:30the NL winner versus the American League winner juiced at minus 140 in favor of
17:35the National League because the two best prices to win a World Series crown both
17:40hail from the NL the Dodgers the favorites the Phillies the second best
17:43price yeah if we're looking at some of those price points right because
17:46sometimes you do want to take a long shot with a legitimate chance to win I
17:50honestly would say the only one I would not bet honestly would be the NL Central
17:55and again that's the Brewers that's the Cardinals and the Pirates because I want
17:58to give a little bit more of a you know a backing of the AL central because I do
18:02think there's better quality teams in there meaning the Guardians and the
18:05Twins either one of those teams make the playoffs I think there's a decent chance
18:08they can win at least one round but again we're getting back to who do we
18:11think are going to win and it is so simple as to say like well hold on now
18:14why would the Dodgers be priced as the number one overall team in the odds
18:18market at the Fandul Sportsbook to win the World Series but then their actual
18:22division isn't it's simple mathematics has been explained you get three cracks
18:26at it with the Phillies Braves and the Mets if the season and today now do we
18:29think the Mets are gonna do damage or the Atlanta Braves for my money right
18:31now I don't think they will but then again I think you're getting the best
18:34overall team with the Philadelphia Phillies there then you flip it over if
18:37we had a better performance in the first half from the Giants and or the D backs
18:41then you would have the NL West leading the way is the best division here with
18:45the best odds to win the World Series so I do agree with a lot of those but if
18:48I'm just leaving out one it's he said well Donnie why would you leave out the
18:51AL West I'm telling you right now there's some funny business going on out
18:55there and has nothing to do with the Mariners chances because I don't think
18:58they're gonna withhold either the Astros or the Rangers in the second half of the
19:01season if they do congratulations to playing much better baseball but there's
19:04just something about the Astros showing up in the playoffs the Rangers showing
19:08up in the playoffs lightning at a bottle which means they were terrible to
19:11start the season but maybe one of the better teams in baseball over the second
19:15half of the season because how else would they wind up in the playoffs
19:17that's one to keep an eye on at this point is that division yeah absolutely
19:22so how could you not it's been our bit for the first half where is the fork is
19:26it in the Houston Astros to say that they are done is it in the drawer is it
19:30even still in the house or is it at some dump because we threw it away a long
19:35time ago I would lean with the latter the Astros are back whether you like it
19:40or not they are firmly in playoff contention at this moment and if they
19:45get to the dance if they have a seat at the table it's hard to bet against them
19:50in whatever iteration Houston has been throughout the cheating scandal and
19:55knocking on trash cans or what we have seen as of late they have played in the
19:59last seven consecutive ALCS last year if you bet the AL West to win the World
20:05Series you were feeling good because the American League Championship Series was
20:10a divisional duel and an in-state showdown between the Rangers and the
20:14Astros it is interesting Donnie when you look at the World Series odds overall
20:18two top teams from the National League then you go to the two top teams out of
20:23the AL and the Braves round out the top five those three T or those five teams
20:28rather eight to one or shorter before you have over a $10 drop-off to the
20:33Guardians and the twins at 18 to one but six of the nine best prices from the
20:39American League so again the National League at least from the odds
20:42perspective seemingly kind of more of a top-heavy league where the AL has a
20:48bunch of quality teams at this moment that could make a run toward the pennant
20:53yes and by the way if we are looking at those odds on the fan blue sportsbook I'd
20:57only make one minor change I would put the Phillies above the Dodgers and then
21:01still have the Yankees or is and Braves in that exact order I think that makes
21:04the most sense so I think we're on it but of course we're not worried about
21:08the regular season and we already brought up how the NBA typically views
21:11its regular season and the odds market at the fan blue sportsbook where it's
21:14like not what have you done for me lately what do I expect out of you if
21:17you're healthy come playoff time and that's the Dodgers I'm telling you right
21:20now like we talked about some of those free agent pitchers yesterday they're
21:22gonna be on the market and it's like the Dodgers are stacked up here wait a sec
21:25they just got scuba and now they're in the hunt for crochet as well like that's
21:28the type of organization the Dodgers are that's why we're expecting big things a
21:33dominant bullpen a ridiculous one through nine and they have to improve on
21:36that injured pitching staff which you expect some of those guys to come back
21:39with two more starters or so watch out for the Dodgers that's why they're
21:43priced where they are in the NBA the regular season just lacks the
21:47significance of the postseason the last few years with the expanded playoff in
21:51MLB it's been pure chaos and looks very different because of how it is
21:56structured power to comes your way next