From insult to murder: A new brutality in politics?
Are extreme political views in the U.S. and Europe intensifying, and is violence turning into a common tool for political disputes? Our guests: Jörg Himmelreich (Political scientist); Thibaut Madelin (Les Echos); Soraya Sarhaddi Nelson (Journalist)
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00:00Politics gone brutal.
00:03The shooting against Donald Trump is another highlight of a trend towards political violence
00:07in the US and Europe.
00:09The pictures of blood-stained Donald Trump have already become iconic for his supporters.
00:15Violence is driving radicals to what they consider the last resort to silence politicians.
00:20Just like here, in Europe, with the attempted assassination of Slovakia's Prime Minister
00:24Robert Fico.
00:26How did we get there?
00:28Situations like the ones in France also show a shift towards the extremes to the left and
00:33to the right.
00:34The centre is losing ground.
00:36On To The Point we ask, from insult to murder, a new brutality in politics?
00:55Welcome to this week's To The Point.
00:57I'm Javier Arguedas and I'll meet today's guests.
01:00Thibaut Madelon is the Berlin correspondent for the French business daily Les Echos.
01:06Jörg Himmelreich is a freelance journalist, a political analyst, and a honorary professor
01:11at a French university here in Berlin.
01:14And Soraya Serhadi-Nelson is an American journalist and the host of the Common Ground Berlin podcast.
01:22To all of you, welcome.
01:23Thank you for being here.
01:24And I'd like to start with you, Soraya.
01:26What was your first reaction when you heard about the shooting against Donald Trump?
01:30Was it just a next foreseeable step in this political violence?
01:34It was shocking.
01:35I mean, one would argue because of the gun culture that it's a common thing.
01:39But I definitely, I mean, I was fortunate enough, I guess, or unfortunate enough to
01:42wake up at 1 a.m. our time here in Germany and was able to see it sort of on live as
01:48it were.
01:49So it was quite shocking.
01:51And do you think it was foreseeable or in any way shocking?
01:55Why?
01:57Well, there's so much rhetoric about violence, you would think that one wouldn't be shocked
02:00anymore.
02:01But I guess I didn't think it would be him who would be targeted.
02:04Certainly a lot of the targets we've heard a lot about in the U.S. have been from the
02:08Democratic side of the aisle or their spouses in the case of Nancy Pelosi.
02:12So yeah, so I think it was the fact that it was him, that it was so open at an event like
02:17that, that there was so much secret service and that a 20-year-old could get that close
02:20to fire off an AR-15 rifle.
02:24We've also seen assassination attempts here in Europe, most recently against Slovakia's
02:28Prime Minister Robert Fico.
02:30How do you think these two cases compare?
02:33I think basically they are quite different.
02:36I think apart from the gun culture, which is not that developed here in Europe still
02:41as to politicians, I think the background is very different.
02:45We have a different aggressive political language, which is much more, seems to be much more
02:52aggressive in the States in the political debates, whereas we have an increase in this
02:57in Europe as well.
02:58But I think in the United States it has a longer tradition.
03:01And I think, I can't imagine, luckily, that there will be an assassination of a candidate
03:07for the German Prime Minister or for the French President here in Europe.
03:12But we have seen attempts to assault and even murder candidates in Germany as well.
03:18Not in that high political level, but many others.
03:20I don't know if they are, yeah, but they, I think, have a more rare background.
03:27I think it's much less violent still in comparison with the United States.
03:32And of course you never, when you have shootings in the early 90s of other ministers in Germany
03:38as well, but that happens as well.
03:43But I think it's not that dangerous, I think, in the debates here as in the United States.
03:48Timo, Western democracies are seeing more and more violence, but also more willingness
03:52to vote for extreme political movements to the left and to the right.
03:56Do you think those two developments go hand in hand?
03:59Yeah, I mean, probably.
04:02What we see is that the debate is becoming more and more polarized.
04:09And the capacity of people to talk with each other, if they belong to, you know, opposite
04:16parties, is getting less and less here, I think.
04:22And you know, to some extent you can see that the rhetoric of the political parties, politicians,
04:29has become more and more aggressive.
04:32And you never know to, you know, how far it will go.
04:36Will it stop with words or will it go into deeds like in the States?
04:42What we've seen in the more recent political campaign in France we had for two elections,
04:47European elections and parliamentary elections lately, we did see acts of violence against
04:55politicians.
04:56And to an extent that is probably new.
04:59It didn't come to that sort of violence like against Trump, but surely there is a trend
05:05in that direction.
05:07Times certainly seem to be changing.
05:09Now, non-violent communication may be a buzzword on social media and podcasts, but apparently
05:14not in politics.
05:15Democracy, it seems, is increasingly becoming a fight, using words and using weapons.
05:23Shots fired on camera.
05:25US presidential candidate Donald Trump narrowly escapes an assassination during a campaign
05:31rally.
05:34Serbia's head of government, Robert Fico, is hit by several bullets, leaving him critically
05:39injured.
05:42And the brutal attack against German SPD MEP Matthias Ecke in Dresden was literally a slap
05:47in the face of democracy.
05:52Attacks instead of arguments, motivated by hate.
05:56And politicians become the boogeymen.
06:01Meanwhile, the political center is suffering, like recently in France.
06:06Many voters rallied behind parties on the political fringe.
06:09The extreme left New Popular Front and the extreme right National Rally.
06:16And in Germany, Berlin is nervous about the upcoming state elections in the eastern part
06:20of the country, where the right-wing populist AFD with its hateful slogans are leading in
06:25the polls.
06:27In politics, is the political center becoming increasingly irrelevant?
06:32Now, Thibault, why do you think it is that what we would call a sane, moderate, inclusive
06:39political message just doesn't seem to be working anymore?
06:42Well, I think this message has come broadly from the parties from the center, center left
06:51or center right, and that is parties which have been in power over the last decades.
07:00And obviously, when you're in power, you try to bring solutions to sometimes complex problems.
07:07And solutions aren't simple, whereas populist parties on the far right or far left will
07:14tend to offer apparently simple solutions.
07:19And I think people long to that sort of discourse and swift and simple solutions, which they
07:28feel they don't have really, coming from traditional parties.
07:32So that would be one explanation.
07:37But there are many, many factors why people will tend to vote for extremist parties.
07:45One of them is cost of living.
07:46One of them is also immigration, security.
07:50All that plays a role, and it's difficult to know what comes first.
07:53But surely, the center right and left parties are more and more challenged in all Western
07:59democracies.
08:01Speaking of those Western democracies, Joachim, you're an expert on Russia, and you wrote
08:04a book called The German-Russia Illusion.
08:06Russia took advantage of the Trump shooting and immediately used it to point out what
08:10they consider the downfall of the West.
08:13Do you think this type of violence is a symptom of liberal democracies?
08:17Yes, it's becoming more and more a symptom, because of course the democratic debates have
08:24fundamentally changed due to the social media, the internet communications.
08:29And we are still not aware how this can as well be abused by foreign powers like Russia,
08:34like China.
08:35And this is not a secret anymore today, but it's still difficult to really become aware
08:40of it.
08:41Of course, these weaknesses of democracies, Western democracies, to find solutions are
08:48exploited by Putin, for instance.
08:50And I think this is a big challenge as well for the established parties of the centers
08:56and the left and the right to really convince the people in Europe about the possibility
09:03of solutions and to talk and to point to the problems they have.
09:07The policy in particular in Germany, I don't know, in other states, is much more to hide
09:12the problems because it's too difficult to explain them and to lose votes in elections.
09:18I think this is a key challenge for the established parties, really, to come to a point, to point
09:24to the problems and to really try to solve it.
09:27The problem of the last governments, in particular Germany, had been to hide the problems, not
09:32to be forced to solve them.
09:34And do you think that can also cause this aggression by voters and the citizens in itself?
09:39Yes, because then the people need and trust the people and the government to deliver security,
09:46for instance, as one ought to do, the problems of the local, regional, communal problems
09:50of migration.
09:51And if the parties, the established parties, are even not ready to point to them and to
09:57understand the problems apart from solving them, it's already a big cause for this discontent
10:04of the people in elections and prefer the populists' simple answers, which are as well
10:12not real.
10:13Now, Soraya, coming back to the US, the Trump shooting is quite complex because it was not
10:18an obvious Biden supporter attacking the Republican candidate from what we know so far.
10:23How do you assess the way Republicans and Democrats have actually dealt with this incident?
10:28Well, it's the usual equation where one side is blaming the other.
10:33I mean, the Republicans right away were talking about the fact that this young man had given
10:38$15 to some progressive cause that was not abundantly clear.
10:42He also came from a quote-unquote mixed family where I think the mother was a Democrat and
10:45the father was a Republican in a community that was well-to-do.
10:49It just shows a lot of the frustrations.
10:52And I think the problem in America is that social media does drive this to some extent.
10:57The political discourse drives this to some extent.
11:00But everybody invents their own facts.
11:03It immediately is used to sort of polarize the situation, and this was no different.
11:07Even though recent surveys show that people are saying, oh, the political discourse is
11:12becoming too violent, 84 percent saying it's time to ratchet it down.
11:17But then what they actually do in action is something else.
11:20Do you think all those calls for unity that we saw from Joe Biden, for instance, and other
11:26politicians also in the Republican Party, were not really that honest then?
11:30Do you think they still decided to-
11:31Well, I think they, you know, I mean, the Republicans, I don't know who said they were
11:36calling for unity, but I don't really hear that at the convention.
11:39We're back to blaming Joe Biden using a phrase that was perhaps unfortunate that could be
11:44used to show that somehow Donald Trump should be targeted.
11:51So yeah, I don't think they're necessarily being honest.
11:53I think it's something that you want to say because you think it's what people want to
11:56hear, but then it's back to business as usual, which is progressively, or I should say, it's
12:01a regressing, you know, it's not a healthy thing in a democracy.
12:06It certainly isn't.
12:07If we take a look at the Slovakian or Slovak example, Joak Robert Fico, the prime minister,
12:13handled the situation similarly, and it's saying that it was political rivals, the media,
12:19and even George Soros were responsible for the attack that he suffered.
12:23Is there a way of capitalizing on such a sensitive event?
12:26Yes, of course, there's a danger to capitalizing on that that supports the frustration of the
12:34victims.
12:35And, of course, he can, I mean, the best example is now Trump, how he's exploiting the situation,
12:40and he's really brilliant in using the situation, causing this iconic picture with blood on
12:48the face, and showing the face to demonstrate the will to fight.
12:53I mean, this is probably the best political propaganda you can have, and I think this
12:58is the same with other extreme radical parties, the same.
13:04I would like, again, to make the difference in the United States.
13:08I think it's more, by these radicalized Republicans, more a fight against the state itself, because
13:17they fight against the so-called deep state, they want to take back the political will.
13:22This is, I think, slightly different in Europe.
13:26They are more politically discontent with certain political problems that are not solved,
13:31but not such a fundamental challenge to the form of democracy we see in the United States.
13:37When we take a look at the example in France, Thibaut, you already mentioned it at the beginning,
13:41France hasn't seen these types of attacks on high-level politicians so far, despite
13:46a very strong discontent among the French population.
13:49Why do you think that is?
13:50What's different there?
13:53I'm not sure.
13:54We did have, there was one assassination attempt on Charles de Gaulle, but it was quite a while
14:03ago, in 1962.
14:05But I don't know exactly why, it's an interesting question, why such things happen in some countries
14:13and not in other countries.
14:15I'm not sure France is known for its capacity to demonstrate, go on the streets, so that's
14:20probably one way to express anger, and perhaps it helps.
14:27But interestingly, we don't have assassination attempts as you may have in the States, we
14:33don't have the same weapons law either.
14:37But nevertheless, the roots of the problem remain, and to some extent, even though there
14:43are differences between countries, there are also similarities or common aspects,
14:49I would say.
14:51We saw in the last election, people who voted for the far right had issues with cost of
14:57living, and that's surely something with the rise of inflation we saw in other countries.
15:03They also had issues with immigration or with the feeling of insecurity, but that's common
15:10to many, many democracies.
15:13Andrea, the comment I've heard most after the shooting is Trump will now win the election
15:17in November, there's still a long way to go, but how do you assess the impact of the shooting
15:22and the outcome of the election?
15:23Well, there's no doubt it gained him points in polls and surveys, and that iconic image
15:28that we've talked about a number of times is something that he's going to be able to
15:32draw on for the election.
15:34Certainly we saw a bump for Reagan when he was shot, and it was a different dynamic,
15:40so that does help him.
15:41But there's so much in play yet that we don't know.
15:44We don't know whether Joe Biden is actually going to step back.
15:47Now there seems to be some indication that he's thinking about it to some extent, but
15:52again, that's still an equation we don't know.
15:54We don't know the introduction of J.D. Vance and what that will have.
15:58There is some popularity there.
16:00The goal, obviously, was to reach to the MAGA, Make America Great crowd, that is poorer or
16:06working class, that comes from states that will hopefully, or what I think Trump is hoping
16:14for is that that will cast votes his way.
16:16So we don't know about, you know, there are still too many unknowns to be able to say
16:21definitively that Donald Trump is going to win.
16:23But there's no doubt that the shooting gave him a very, a boost, a big boost.
16:28We'll have to look into that future, because with or without the shooting, it seems increasingly
16:33likely at least that Donald Trump might return to power in 2025, a development many in Europe
16:38are concerned about.
16:39Because after four years of the first Trump administration, leaders here know that Trump
16:44is not exactly a fan of Europe.
16:48What if Donald Trump wins the US presidential election?
16:52In Europe, alarm bells are sounding off.
16:55Because Trump never hid his hostility toward the EU.
16:58During his last term in office, he called it an enemy of the USA, a brutal trading partner,
17:03and worse than China.
17:07He's also repeatedly challenged NATO, even threatening to leave the alliance.
17:12He doesn't want to protect member states delinquent in their payments.
17:15Trump has even said that Russia can do whatever it wants with them.
17:22Europeans are also worried about the impact of a second Trump term on the economy.
17:27For Trump, America first means a world trade order that prioritizes economic protectionism
17:32over a transatlantic partnership.
17:37A sense of deja vu is being felt in Brussels.
17:42Is a divided Europe ready for more Donald Trump?
17:47It's time for those what ifs.
17:49Soraya, I'd like to start with you.
17:50We've heard the Republican National Convention and first ideas about a possible second Trump
17:54presidency.
17:55What would you expect from a second Trump term with regards to its policy towards the
17:59European Union?
18:00Oh, I think Europe is going to be in for a hard time.
18:03I mean, I think that the pressure on NATO is going to be very great in terms of Germany.
18:08Jens Spahn even mentioned today, I think, that Germany has to fulfill its 2% of GDP
18:16obligation to funding its defense, and that is still not there.
18:20I think we're going to see also a lot more focus on Asia, which is something that people
18:26forget that America is not, you know, the transatlantic relation perhaps is more important
18:31to Europe than it is to America.
18:33There is definitely an Asia pivot, no matter who's in the White House, and that's going
18:36to be, I think, more pronounced.
18:38I think tariffs are coming.
18:39I think a devaluation of the dollar is coming.
18:41It's going to be a rocky ride for Europe, I'm afraid.
18:44A rocky ride that requires unity.
18:46Thibault, the European Union would need to stand united with a possibly hostile US president.
18:53How difficult do you think that will be, considering the current political landscape here?
18:57Well, it has been difficult in the past, and it will be surely even more difficult now.
19:05Not only because, you know, the policies that will be hostile, most likely, against Europe,
19:11but also because, as you say, the political landscape has become more and more fragmented.
19:17What we see is that in France, which is the second largest economy in the European Union,
19:24is very unstable.
19:25We don't have a proper government yet.
19:26We don't know for how long that will last.
19:30It may take weeks, if not months, before we have a formal government.
19:38And that will surely make it more difficult for the European Union and for France and
19:44Germany to find a common language, to build common positions.
19:50Because we know we do have different interests.
19:53We have common interests, obviously, as a European Union, to stand together.
19:57But we also have, because of the structure of our economy, different interests.
20:05In Germany, the car industry is extremely important for, you know, if we talk about
20:10free trade.
20:11In France, it may be more luxury goods.
20:13So we'll see how that combines.
20:15But surely, the fact that France is in a very unstable situation won't help.
20:24Not to talk about coming elections in Germany in September this year, but also in September
20:29next year for the parliament's elections.
20:33We also have no clue what's going to happen.
20:36Of course, one leader might be pleased to hear all of this.
20:39Jörg, we're talking about Vladimir Putin, essential figure to talk about when we talk
20:44about the future of Europe.
20:46What would a return of Donald Trump mean for Russia's ambitions?
20:49Now, Putin is certainly hoping that Trump will, to some extent, make a deal with him
20:57and accept occupations, the Russian illegal occupations of areas of Ukraine, and that
21:04he wants to demonstrate his capacity to be a peacemaker, like he tried before.
21:12So this is not very good for the European policy.
21:17I don't know to which extent Putin, and there's still many, many directions open, which policy
21:25Trump will really finally follow after a potential, even the victory of Trump is still
21:33quite crucial.
21:34It's depending upon the voters in only seven swing states.
21:41And so this is not clear what the policy of Trump will be, and in particular as to foreign
21:51international policies.
21:52So even as well to Putin.
21:54But nonetheless, independently, who will win the election in Washington in November?
22:00It's ultimately at stake now that Germany fundamentally rethinks its defense policy
22:10and culture.
22:11We still are leaving the security, the military security, against foreign aggressors in Germany
22:19of Europe entirely on the burden of the United States.
22:22And the claim of the United States to enhance and to improve the military capacities of
22:28Germany are out more than 30 years after the fall of the wall.
22:33And we still hide behind our so-called historical shame that we may never be again a great military
22:41power due to the cause of the Second World War.
22:45But this time is ultimately over.
22:48And I think for this, and this is independently upon Trump or Biden, for them, they are, as
22:55you mentioned, they are Asian powers as well.
22:59And the Asian focus is much more important than Obama, Biden, or Asia.
23:02And we know this.
23:03In Germany, the politicians know this.
23:05But they want to avoid the political debate about improving of military security.
23:12It requires a lot of investment in defense for the European Union.
23:16However, Soraya, if we listen to Donald Trump's remarks, for example, he has pledged that
23:20he would put an end to the war in Ukraine within 24 hours.
23:25What do we know about that plan and what a peace deal that would mean?
23:28I think he walked that back a little, that, you know, he said it might take a little more
23:32than 24 hours.
23:33But yeah, I think it definitely, I mean, if I had to predict, I think it definitely will
23:38mean that Putin will be able to get some concessions, the land concessions he needs to be able to
23:43save face.
23:44Whether he gets to take over the entire country of Ukraine, you know, remains to be seen.
23:49But it is, it will be very bad news for Ukraine.
23:52It'll be very bad news for Europe in many ways.
23:54Again, I think economically it's going to be a bit of a struggle, especially if the
24:00dollars devalued, which is being talked about quite a bit, will be artificially devalued.
24:04I think that would really hurt the euro in a bad way.
24:08So yeah, it's not a grim prospect, I would say.
24:13As a business journalist, Thibault, of course, we just heard about the challenges for the
24:18European Union.
24:19But lots of people had predicted that Donald Trump might come back to the presidency.
24:22Has Europe prepared for that potential scenario?
24:27Well, they've prepared in a sense that they've had Donald Trump in the first place.
24:36So they know how he behaves and they know when he says something, it follows with acts.
24:45And I guess that's perhaps new if you compare to 2016, where people just didn't know really
24:53what would happen, in fact.
24:57And now you can say, since last Saturday, that people in Germany, in France, are preparing
25:02far more intensively on a possible re-election of Donald Trump.
25:07And I think that's going quite intensively indeed.
25:12It's all in the making.
25:13It's all in the future.
25:14We'll see how that goes.
25:15And we will be here to discuss it.
25:17Thank you to all three of you for being here today.
25:19And of course, to you for watching.
25:21We'll see you next time.
25:22Take care.
25:23Goodbye.