This Storm Will Be A BIG Problem Today
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This Storm Will Be A BIG Problem Today
This Storm Will Be A BIG Problem Today
Transcript
00:00A big day of severe weather is ahead across the northern and central plains, the Midwest and the
00:05Ohio Valley, where the potential for significant and perhaps even numerous to widespread damaging
00:11winds, large hail and a few tornadoes will all be possible today. And we might even see a rare
00:17derecho across parts of the Midwest. So in this forecast, we're gonna break down exactly what you
00:22need to know about this severe weather event today, and why I think the weather is going to
00:27change entirely as we go throughout the rest of this week and probably for the rest of July.
00:32Now let's begin with what's happening across the United States right now. There are a lot of areas
00:37that have been seeing showers and thunderstorms throughout the overnight hours and even into
00:41early this morning where we had a large complex of thunderstorms roll across areas like Illinois,
00:46Indiana and Michigan. This is basically the appetizer in terms of what we're gonna be
00:51seeing later today, where I think it's giving more of an entree across the Midwest. This is
00:55just kind of like a little prerequisite to what we're gonna see later today. But overall,
00:58a lot of this activity from last night was some scattered damaging winds.
01:02We didn't end up seeing a couple of tornadoes near Chicago last night. They were relatively
01:06pretty quick and also pretty weak in nature. But overall, this is gonna continue to move
01:10throughout Ohio this morning. Overall, most of that activity, though, has been fizzling out over
01:14the last few hours. Back over in Louisiana and Mississippi, we also had a complex of thunderstorms
01:19over there late last night. That is pretty much winding down as well. And we also had some
01:23complexes of thunderstorms across the central and northern plains. And there will be more of that
01:28as we go throughout the day today. So I do think we're gonna continue to see a pretty active
01:31stretch of weather, especially in the central and northern plains, the Midwest, the Ohio Valley,
01:36and then eventually the Northeast by tomorrow. Now let's talk more about the severe weather
01:41potential for today. And it is a large area that we're talking about today for at least a potential
01:46for severe weather. We have three different areas that we're really watching for today. We're gonna
01:50have the main bullseye of severe weather, which is where we're gonna have at least one line of
01:54storms across parts of the Midwest today with significant damaging winds, large hail and the
01:59potential for a few tornadoes. We'll spin back to that here in just a second. We also have a slight
02:03risk in the central plains, which mostly wind and hail is gonna be happening over in this area. I
02:08don't really expect a tornado risk to materialize. And then we also have a slight risk for severe
02:13weather in New York and Pennsylvania, where more damaging winds and hail will be possible. And then
02:17we might also see an isolated tornado or two and then a small little marginal threat back over in
02:22Arizona. How cute. We do have an enhanced risk, though, for those in Iowa, Illinois and Indiana,
02:27where there will be a potential for significant damaging winds today. We do have a hatched area,
02:31which does mean there is a potential for damaging winds that could exceed 75 miles per hour. We very
02:37easily could see a couple of storms produce damaging winds as high as 90 miles per hour
02:41later today. This is all gonna be from a line of storms that will start in Iowa early to mid
02:46afternoon and then eventually move into Illinois and Indiana as we go later into the afternoon and
02:50then eventually into the evening hours. I would not be shocked if we do get some sort of small,
02:55moderate risk for severe weather for mainly a wind threat in either eastern Iowa or as well as
03:00western Illinois. Now, the hail risk for today, it's pretty low. I wouldn't really expect much
03:05hail. I wouldn't be surprised even if we got a small, slight risk in like central Iowa for hail
03:09out of those initial storms that develop later today. But again, it's a pretty low risk across
03:13the board. The tornado risk for today, it's a little bit more elevated in eastern Iowa and
03:17western Illinois. It's actually a very favorable environment today for tornadoes. The problem is,
03:22is the storm mode. We are expecting mostly linear lines of storms to impact these areas. We're not
03:27expecting rogue, discrete supercells, at least as of right now. I wouldn't really expect many.
03:32If for whatever reason we do get a rogue supercell somewhere over here in like eastern Iowa,
03:37I would not rule out a tornado or two, and I wouldn't even rule out an isolated strong
03:41tornado. It's just a very low risk in my opinion. I think if we do get any tornadoes today, which I
03:45think will at least have a few, I think a lot of them are just going to be embedded in a line of
03:49storms. Again, mostly just QLCS tornadoes. Those are usually relatively brief in nature. And once
03:55we go into tossing trampolines on Tacos Tuesday, we have yet again another threat for severe
04:00weather. It's another large area. Got a slight risk over New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and West
04:05Virginia. Large marginal threat from New England all the way back into the central plains. Main
04:10concern across the board will be damaging winds and hail. I don't think we're going to be live
04:14tomorrow. I think we'll be live today, but I don't think we're gonna be live tomorrow.
04:17Tornado risk does appear pretty low across the northeast and even Ohio and Pennsylvania.
04:21Does not look really concerning. I wouldn't be concerned too much about tomorrow's threat. Just
04:25make sure that you have a tornado action plan in place and have multiple ways to receive alerts.
04:29Now let's talk more about the severe weather setup and as well as the timing for today. I
04:33do want to point out the significant tornado parameter for today because I think a lot of
04:37people are thinking today might be a big tornado day. Well, we might see some tornadoes, but I
04:42think today is gonna be much more wind driven for this particular threat. The overall sheer
04:47and also the holographs today, which indicate the spin throughout the atmosphere, are relatively
04:51favorable for tornadoes today. The problem is gonna be the storm mode as we are expecting a
04:56line or multiple lines of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. So overall, there will
05:01be some areas where we could see again a few tornadoes. I think we'll have two different
05:04corridors that we have to watch for, one of which will be in central Iowa during the mid
05:08afternoon hours, and then another one that will be back over in western Illinois. I think we'll
05:12have a couple of areas again where we have the most maximized threat for tornadoes. Even then,
05:17I think overall, the general gist for today is that tornadoes are gonna be still a low to maybe
05:21low to medium chance, but I don't expect a tornado outbreak unless for some reason today's setup goes
05:27completely discreet when it comes to supercells. I think again, most of this will be linear today.
05:31Now let's talk more about the future radar and give you an idea of timing for today across the
05:36Midwest and the Ohio Valley. I do want to point out right off the bat that I am going to show you
05:40two different scenarios. This is gonna be the first one, and the reason why is because there
05:44are different things that could happen today. Essentially, we could see two lines of storms,
05:48or we could just see one uniform line of storms. So I'm gonna kind of show you those two different
05:51scenarios here. Going through the rest of the morning, we'll have some showers and thunderstorms
05:55still out there across Ohio and Michigan. Main concern with those will just be some isolated,
05:59damaging winds. Once we go into the afternoon, this is one scenario that could pan out. The
06:03HRRR model showing that most of the convection that we had from last night that's rolling through
06:08Minnesota this morning will kind of die out. And if this does end up happening, there should be
06:12some energy left over in northern Iowa to form some showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon.
06:18And you'll kind of see there will be basically one unison area of thunderstorm activity that
06:22develops around three to four o'clock this afternoon. And then by six to seven, this is
06:26all mostly just one line of severe storms. And in this case, there is a higher likelihood that we
06:31could see something called a derecho, which a derecho essentially means that we could see
06:36widespread damaging winds between 60 to even 80 miles per hour, and all one unison line of storms
06:41that stretches over about 200 to 250 miles in length. So basically, the starting point could
06:47be Iowa, and it could go all the way into Indiana, for example. That is something that we are
06:50concerned about today. At the bare minimum, though, we are at least talking about scattered,
06:54damaging winds. I do want to point out one thing. As we get closer to five to six o'clock tonight,
06:58we could see this turn into more of a bowing segment with a couple of inflow notches.
07:03If that does happen, we could again see a few embedded tornadoes in that line of storms,
07:08which would be called a QLCS line of storms. Once we go later into this evening, this line
07:12of storms continues to bow out across central Illinois and into northwestern Indiana. And this
07:17might look pretty familiar to what we saw last night, and it is. It really is basically the
07:21same thing that the HRR model is showing, basically the same line of storms overnight
07:26tonight into early tomorrow morning. That line of storms will probably continue into Indiana and as
07:30well southern parts of Illinois, with at least some isolated to scattered damaging winds before
07:35it fully dies out. Now, another scenario is that this line of storms stays more intense in southern
07:40Minnesota this morning, and then eventually, as we go into the afternoon, we actually see this
07:44continue as an intense line of thunderstorms with mostly damaging winds. And then we see a second
07:50line of storms develop right behind that, right around and just after lunchtime. In this particular
07:55scenario, it actually shows an earlier start time to these storms. So instead of them happening at
07:593 to 4 o'clock for initiation, these are showing closer to like 12 to 1 o'clock, so like 3 to 4
08:05hours ahead of time. That is something that we'll have to watch for this morning, and we'll have to
08:09monitor trends very closely. Once we go into the late afternoon and evening, though, it will become
08:13again just one unison line of storms. And then eventually, as we go later into the evening,
08:17this thing starts to die out into Indiana and southern parts of Illinois. And then eventually,
08:21as we go into the overnight hours, there could still be some storms left over. But in conclusion,
08:25there are multiple scenarios, but most of them lead to the same end result of there just being
08:30one line of storms in eastern Iowa and eventually into Illinois. And then it kind of falls apart
08:34more as it goes into Indiana and eventually even into Ohio as we go later into the evening hours.
08:39But overall, the main concern again today will be damaging winds. I don't expect today's tornado
08:44threat to go crazy. I think we'll have a few tornadoes, but I think it'll be mostly just
08:47embedded in that line of storms. This is one more scenario from the HRR model run, which does show
08:52that line of storms weakening this morning. And eventually, by the afternoon, we see those storms
08:56initiate and eventually turning into one full-blown line of storms with mostly a wind threat across
09:02Iowa and as well as Illinois. The threat of severe weather does not end there. We have another risk
09:07for severe weather in the northeast today for areas like New York. Notice by this afternoon,
09:11we'll have some storms coming off Lake Erie and as well as Lake Huron. And this is where we're
09:16going to be seeing a couple of discrete cells that'll be capable of mostly hail and wind.
09:19Not nearly as favorable as an environment as what we had with Hurricane Beryl or at least the
09:23remnants of it, but it is a pretty similar setup. We'll probably have a couple of tornadoes,
09:28at least a potential for a couple of tornadoes this afternoon in western New York, anywhere
09:32from Buffalo and Syracuse back into Watertown. Eventually, as we go later into the evening,
09:36this is mostly a wind threat. And then once we go into tomorrow, we'll probably get another round
09:40of damaging winds across New York and maybe Pennsylvania. But overall, the tornado risk for
09:44tomorrow does appear lower at this time. And back over in the central plains for today, the main
09:49concern is just going to be damaging winds and hail. And this is all going to be coming from
09:53that high-pressure system that's back over in the southwest. So this will just kind of be circling
09:57around it. But overall, just mostly damaging winds across the central plains, nothing out of the
10:01ordinary for today there. And also the northern plains, basically the same thing as well. Now,
10:05tomorrow in our video forecast, we're going to talk more about what to expect beyond today,
10:09as I do think the weather's going to be changing a lot. I was hoping to get to it in this forecast,
10:12but we didn't have time for it. We will likely be live later today though for the
10:15severe weather threat. So make sure that you are subscribed to the channel and like the video.