Analisis dan Rekomendasi Saham Pilihan
"Saksikan tayangan kami Official Youtube IDX Channel di Program Power Breakfast, Selasa (16/07/2024) dengan Tema Analisis dan Rekomendasi Saham Pilihan".
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00:00And now we will look at the interesting economic agendas for us to discuss, as you can see on the television screen from the United States, there is data on retail sales, then from Canada there is an index of consumer prices,
00:11the European Union, a survey of European Central Bank loans, then also from France, the transaction is running, then also from Italy there is data on the consumer price index, and from South Korea there is an import price index.
00:24The SMSM brokerage emittance agenda includes the payment date of cash dividends, AMIN, the payment date of ex-dividends, then MORA,
00:32by paying the fee of Mora 0.2 BCN 2 to 2, then this taxi will hold a general meeting of the shareholder.
00:44And next we will look at the opening data from the main Asian exchanges this morning, as you can see on the television screen.
00:54For the opening of the ASEAN exchange,
01:03the opening of the ASEAN exchange is 0.32% at level 41,323, while the STI, KOSPI, and Hang Seng are opened at 0.69% with their own weaknesses.
01:21For the STI at level 3,475, KOSPI, Korea is opened weak at level 2,860, weak at 0.03% and Hang Seng, Hong Kong, weak at 0.95% at level 17,845.
01:36For the STI at level 3,475, KOSPI, Korea is opened weak at level 2,860, weak at 0.03% and Hang Seng, Hong Kong, weak at 0.03% at level 17,845.
02:06Okay, as we know, the IHSK is weak after 4 consecutive days of strengthening and is now back at level 7,300, the psychological level.
02:28In the last trade, the IHSK is back to the same level as the trade on July 9th.
02:38This shows that there is significant sales pressure after the previous high-strengthening.
02:43This is also proven in the last Monday trade, there was a regular net sale of 180 billion rupiah.
02:55Biotechnically, the IHSK has rebounded since June 20th, and since June 20th to July 12th, 2024, the movement of the IHSK has been uptrended and increased quite a bit.
03:13Since July 5th, the stochastic indicator has responded to the movement in the overbought area.
03:19So it is natural or there is an indication that the IHSK must be corrected.
03:27So the correction that happened is because of profit-taking, because the IHSK has rebounded or maybe overbought.
03:33Is the correction that happened included a correction that is then healthy, or is there another concern, Mr. Torik?
03:44Okay, if I look at it, after 4 consecutive days of increasing, this happened because of profit-taking.
03:53If you remember what I said earlier, the IHSK has been strong for 4 days, and the IHSK position has now been allowed to buy or overbought.
04:02And based on the indicator of the technique, using the stochastic has also been in the overbought area since July 5th.
04:10Then there is a probability that this weakness happened because of the action of profit-taking.
04:15Because after a few weeks, it has also been strengthening continuously like that.
04:20So it means that this weakness actually happened when the IHSK has been in the overbought area, right?
04:24Yes, that's right.
04:26Okay, so it means that there is no other concern.
04:28Then maybe it is considered as the right moment for domestic investors to realize their profits, even though the IHSK has been in the overbought area.
04:36Okay, if we talk about the incident of the shooting of US President Donald Trump, a few days ago,
04:45it was very shocking, and it is quite unfortunate that it then hindered the democratic process there.
04:53What are the market expectations?
04:56If we look at the electability of Donald Trump, it actually rocketed when this incident happened.
05:02What are the expectations of the market players?
05:05Regarding the leadership of Donald Trump or the presidency of Donald Trump in the next election.
05:12Okay, if we look at the shooting of US President Donald Trump,
05:16of course, this has a significant impact on the economic and political conditions in a country, especially in the United States.
05:24This incident indeed increased the political uncertainty in the country,
05:30then it will also affect the needs of investors in the financial market or the US stock market.
05:40And of course, this can also be a polarity in the financial market, especially the dollar.
05:44It could be that after the incident, the dollar tends to weaken.
05:49This can also be seen from the comparison between the US dollar and the Rupiah,
05:54which is currently in the range of Rp. 16,100 compared to the previous one at Rp. 16,300.
06:02Well, this will of course have a huge impact on economic policy and political policy in the future.
06:09However, what needs to be highlighted here is that after the shooting of Donald Trump,
06:15there is no significant impact on the sentiment in the United States.
06:19This is also proven that the conditions in the US market are not very influential,
06:25it does not experience significant weaknesses.
06:28Even in trade, yesterday, the Dow Jones index fell by 0.53%.
06:33It means that even though there was a negative sentiment,
06:38but because of the electability of Donald Trump,
06:42it did not have a significant impact on the US stock market or economic conditions in the United States.
06:47Okay. It means that if we look at the history of this incident,
06:54after that, the electability of Donald Trump increased,
06:59then the US stock market was closed and tended to rise.
07:02So, maybe Donald Trump himself is considered favorable compared to Joe Biden, right?
07:10What do you think, from the point of view of a global investor?
07:13Actually, if we look at the comparison between Donald Trump and Joe Biden,
07:21it is true that from the point of view of the public, it seems to be on the side of Donald Trump.
07:28Indeed, for Donald Trump himself, the focus is on trade, not on human rights.
07:35So, at this time, in the era of Joe Biden, human rights can be said to be back on track,
07:42like what happened between Israel and Palestine,
07:47where the United States supports it.
07:50What happened to Donald Trump at the time of his victory
07:55did not have a significant impact on the US trade with China.
08:02The focus was on trade, which was a positive catalyst
08:07and Donald Trump got strong support from the public.
08:13In my opinion, Donald Trump and Joe Biden.
08:16Okay. If there was a war, I mean,
08:20what happened was a trade war between the US and China,
08:26for example, when Donald Trump served as president a few years ago.
08:32Then, what is the implication of the possibility of an increase in inflation
08:37and will it affect the policy of the Fed, which is likely to be hawkish in the future?
08:42Mr. Torek.
08:45Okay, if we look at the inflation of the US in July,
08:50including the Dutch, which is roughly 3%,
08:54then there is a probability that the Fed will lower its flow rate.
09:00However, there is a projection from various analysts that
09:04the Fed is projected to lower its flow rate in September 2024.
09:10This will certainly be a positive sentiment for the US economy
09:15and will have an impact on emerging markets such as Indonesia.
09:19So, it can be said that this inflation can push
09:24to lower the flow rate faster.
09:27Okay, the context of the possibility is if Donald Trump is really elected
09:34back to be president of the US.
09:36But, if we look at the context, which is behind the sentiment of Dovish
09:42that Jerome Powell said about inflation and the policy of the hawkish flow rate
09:48that will be taken, most likely the flow rate of the Fed will drop.
09:52Will this affect the IASG, Mr. Torek, when it weakened yesterday?
09:58Will it affect the IASG?
10:03Yes, Powell himself said there was data that was quite positive
10:07and was also responded to by the policy of Dovish.
10:12How will this give a positive sentiment for the strengthening of the IASG
10:17after the correction yesterday?
10:19Okay, if we look at it, if we look at the inflation rate
10:24which can also be said to be quite low,
10:27then there is also a statement from Dovish that it will be Dovish,
10:32I estimate that even though the IASG has been corrected,
10:35if in the end the Fed will drop the flow rate in September,
10:40this will have a significant impact on the condition of the IASG.
10:44Why? Because as we can see, the BIRate has increased the flow rate to 6.25%.
10:52This will also be the biggest boost in the banking sector,
10:56the banking sector is one of the four big banks that also has the largest cap market in the IASG movement.
11:04If there is a probability that this flow rate will drop in September,
11:10then this will have a major impact on the IASG movement,
11:14which of course the banking sector share is not a significant impact on the flow rate
11:20and that will make the banking sector share continue to rise.
11:26and push the IASG movement forward.
11:29Okay, in yesterday's survey, the brand decreased by 4.23% and Telkom by 1.86%.
11:35Both of them are investors who say that the capitalization is quite large.
11:40This also affects the movement of the IASG which was closed in the negative zone
11:45or then dropped from the level of 7,300.
11:49What is your analysis like with Telkom and also what is the brand like?
11:54Okay, if we look at the IASG movement,
12:00it can be seen that this infrastructure sector is experiencing a weakness of 1.05%.
12:07What is of concern is the stock that has the largest cap market,
12:11it can be said that this brand is experiencing a fairly deep weakness, up to 4.23%.
12:17What I see from the stock itself is that the foreign majority
12:22has done a net sale to the brand since June 5, 2024.
12:28Moreover, in this trade, the foreign net sale brand is also quite large,
12:32so this of course affects the movement of the IASG on Monday.
12:37The same thing can also be seen in Telkom.
12:41Looking at Telkom stock, it has also grown by 14% since the rebound again
12:46after the level of 2,700 psychological numbers.
12:50This of course makes a profit for Telkom,
12:53which has increased the price by 14%.
12:59Okay, the analysis or maybe the recommendation for these two stocks,
13:04what do you think?
13:05Can the weakness be used to then enter or do you still see the possibility
13:10that these two stocks will continue to weaken?
13:13Okay, if we look at the stock of the brand,
13:15actually this brand is beneficial for profit only.
13:19Because indeed, if we look at it fundamentally,
13:22it tends to be very overvalued.
13:25Moreover, if we use the relative valuation,
13:30the P.E. ratio can be seen, indeed the P.E. ratio of the brand stock
13:35has exceeded 300 times,
13:38which is on average 50 times.
13:41A gap that is quite far away that makes the price of this brand
13:46tend to be overvalued.
13:48I see that this Telkom stock is actually quite okay for collectors
13:54because at the moment Starlink is also working with Telkom
13:59for the sales issue, which is also a positive sentiment.
14:04Then it can also be seen that after a few weeks,
14:09the price of Telkom has weakened again at the level of 2,700 psychological numbers
14:14and now it has rebounded back to the level of 3,000 psychological numbers.
14:18Of course, that can be a momentum for the collection of friends.
14:22Okay, taking advantage of the momentum means that it can enter now
14:25and then also be released in the short term, or what is it like?
14:30Okay, if we look at it from the brand,
14:32of course, we first look at the movement today
14:38at the opening of IHSG.
14:40Because of course, this brand is a driving force for the movement of IHSG.
14:46Even if you want to collect, but the movement weakens,
14:51of course it will also affect other stocks.
14:54For Telkom itself, I see that the support area at the psychological level
15:04at 2,900 to 3,000,
15:07you can collect according to your trend.
15:11Okay, there are four options that you recommend this morning.
15:15We will discuss the next topic in Mastorik.
15:17And if you stay with us, we will be back soon.
15:37Support at 1585, resistance at 1720,
15:41buy recommendation ICBP, support at 10175,
15:45resistance at 11150 with a buy recommendation.
15:49Then there is also IMJS with support at 177
15:53and resistance at 195 is also recommended to buy.
15:58Okay, we will discuss one by one.
16:03Mastorik, for Saratoga, what is the complete analysis like?
16:08Okay, if we look at it technically,
16:11actually from Saratoga itself,
16:14it can also be seen that the candlestick is bullish,
16:18then it can also be said that it is above MA5 or MA50.
16:21It can be said that it is in the support area,
16:25support at MA5 or MA50.
16:28Then at the moment, SRTGI is testing the resistance dynamic level at MA200
16:36at level 1545.
16:39Of course, it can also be seen that
16:41actually if you look at the stochastic,
16:43the indicator is also heavy.
16:46There is a golden cross even though it hits the overbought area.
16:49Then also the volume in the trade yesterday experienced an increase.
16:54Then there was also a poor accumulation since last week of 7.4 billion rupiah
17:00at an average of 1,445.
17:03The gap is indeed quite far,
17:06but this is a positive sentiment that
17:08actually Saratoga is being accumulated
17:11even though the number is quite small at 7.4 billion rupiah.
17:15Like that for Saratoga.
17:16Okay, if we look at the movement here,
17:18one month has increased by 10.74%
17:20and a week has increased by 1.7%.
17:24But this increase has not yet made the valuation of Saratoga itself expensive.
17:29Moreover, you recommended that the entry level is at 1495.
17:35But the last price is 1495,
17:38so the last price can go straight to Saratoga, right?
17:41That's right, it can immediately buy at the price of 1495.
17:47What is the price target at the historical level?
17:50Okay, if we look at the price target itself,
17:53my target price for the take profit is the first take profit at 1540
18:00and the second take profit is at 1570,
18:03while the stop loss is at 1450.
18:06Okay, is it too long for Saratoga?
18:10Actually, this is for a short and medium-term trend.
18:13Because indeed, for investment,
18:17Saratoga has a positive momentum.
18:22It can be seen that the EIDCU is still negative,
18:25which means that the investors in Saratoga have experienced a negative trend.
18:34Okay, but in terms of the potential of the business sector and so on,
18:38this is probably quite potential, right?
18:39That's right.
18:41Okay, that's why you then recommended that it shouldn't be too long,
18:43but technically it's also interesting if you want to use it for trading,
18:46you can also enter Saratoga.
18:49JAPFA Confit Indonesia TBK or JPFA is a sum that you also recommended.
18:55This morning, the last level is 1645.
18:58What is the complete analysis, Torik?
19:00Okay, if we look at the JPFA,
19:03the first insight is that the candlestick can be said to be bullish above MA10,
19:08then MACD is still moving bullish in the positive area,
19:13even though the stochastic indicator indicates the overbought area.
19:17Then if we look at the candlestick,
19:20it is true that JAPFA is closed at the highest level,
19:23which is a positive indication.
19:26If we look at the first fundamentals of JPFA,
19:30actually JPFA is already quite cheap from the relative valuation using the P.E. ratio,
19:37where the P.E. ratio of JPFA is 7.25 times,
19:41if we compare it with its competitor, JEPIN,
19:44the P.E. ratio is 31.71 times,
19:47which is quite high,
19:49indicating that actually JPFA is much cheaper than its competitors.
19:55Okay, one month has been strong at 27.52%,
19:58a week at 4.44%,
20:00even though you then see that it has entered the overbought area,
20:04but there is still a potential upside for JAPFA, right?
20:08That's right.
20:10Okay, what is the target price for JAPFA at what level?
20:13Okay, if JAPFA is for buying, we are at IDR 1,845,
20:19TP1 is at IDR 1,690,
20:23the second take profit is at IDR 1,720,
20:26and the stop loss is at IDR 1,585.
20:29Okay, in 2023, JAPFA will sell cleanly at IDR 51.18 trillion,
20:36and JAPFA also admitted that this geopolitical conflict
20:41affects the increase in the cost of raw materials production.
20:44How does this then become a concern for those who want to enter JAPFA, Mr. Tariq?
20:50Actually, if it's true,
20:54the strength is also supported by sentiment.
20:57Indeed, many of our raw materials still use dollars.
21:01As we can see,
21:03Rupiah appreciation also happened,
21:06which made stocks in the poultry sector,
21:10can be said to decline, then rebound again
21:13since June 27, 2024.
21:19Also remember that since the end of June 2024,
21:22Rupiah has started to appreciate again,
21:25even though it is still at IDR 16,000.
21:29Okay, one of the stocks that in business
21:33is indeed affected by the movement of the community,
21:36which is also quite affected by the volatility of the GANUM price,
21:41which is ICBP.
21:42You also recommend BYE for ICBP,
21:45which has weakened by 0.95%
21:48at level 10,525.
21:52The BYE that you recommend is at level 10,575.
21:59Does this mean that at the last level you can directly enter ICBP?
22:03Okay, actually it can be said that it is already allowed to enter,
22:08because indeed the technical indicators also support
22:11which at the moment ICBP is actually trying to pass the dynamic resistance area
22:19at level 10,800.
22:24Now if we look at this ICBP,
22:27the candle can be said to be bullish on the trade yesterday
22:30and break out at MA50 and MA5.
22:32Although today it is indeed weak,
22:35of course it can be used as a momentum before entering the stop-loss area
22:40at level 10,175.
22:43Okay, it's too long for ICBP, right?
22:46That's right, it's too long and too long.
22:49All right, INDF is spreading dividends of 2.34 trillion rupiah
22:52will be divided at the end of July 2024.
22:55Does this transfer the sentiment to ICBP?
22:58Actually, it can be said that it also comes out,
23:00because it can be said that both INDF and ICBP will also share dividends
23:06in the range of Rp. 200 per share,
23:10which will also follow from the mother, which is INDF.
23:15All right, from ICBP we go to Indomobil Multijasa TBK or IMJS.
23:20Mas Torik, what is the complete analysis for IMJS?
23:24Okay, if we look at IMJS,
23:27this candlestick does have a potential breakout
23:30from its dynamic resistance at MA50,
23:36although it is indeed weak today.
23:40Well, because even from yesterday's movement,
23:42it can be said that the MA50 has survived.
23:45This leaves the candlestick with an upper shadow that can be said to be quite high.
23:50Well, it should also be noted that yesterday's trade,
23:53IMJS experienced a very significant increase in volume,
23:57then also if we look at the MACD, it is still on track in the bullish trend.
24:01So, indeed, this correction is a reasonable correction
24:05because it has previously survived in the MA50 dynamic resistance.
24:10Moving on to the transportation and logistics sector,
24:14one of the shareholders in IMJS is PT Indomobil Sukses Internasional TBK.
24:20The last price is at IDR 1.82 million.
24:23Is it possible to enter directly?
24:26You previously projected or recommended the entry level at IDR 1.84 million,
24:31which means this is cheaper than the level you recommended.
24:35Can you go straight to IMJS?
24:37All right.
24:38Okay, that's all the recommendations this morning from the shareholders of Saratoga, Java, ICBP, and also IMJS.
24:45In the next part, we will discuss the opening data of ISG
24:50at the opening of the C1 trade.
24:52Stay tuned, we will be back soon.
24:53Thank you for staying tuned with us, Mr. President.
24:55Now we will look at the data from the opening of ISG this morning.
24:59From the opening at 9 o'clock until now at IDX channel showing 9.06.
25:06We can see the movement of ISG is 0.12% at level 7287.883.
25:14Then, greetings to those who have entered the Tap Genes journey.
25:16Among them are Ritchie, Archie, Suri, Guna, Meja, IOTF, Lab Slaba, and also Golf.
25:23Then Tap Losers, there is ISEA, Bulwika, ERTX, SMDR, PV, ICBP, then also BATR, SLIS, SSMS.
25:34ICBP, you recommended to buy, but so far it has entered Tap Losers.
25:38Can it be used to enter a cheaper price, Mr. Tariq?
25:42Absolutely, it can be used to increase the price.
25:46It can be said that it is much cheaper than my trade plan.
25:51Okay, because in terms of potential, you can still see for ICBP.
25:56If we look at the opening data of the market today at level 7200,
26:02it still shows a positive movement trend.
26:04In general, you recommend the movement of ISG.
26:10What will it be like today, Mr. Tariq?
26:13Okay, if we look at my projection,
26:17the movement of ISG will tend to weaken,
26:22because if we look at the shares of the banks,
26:26the tendency is weakening, followed by the trend shares that can be said to be weakening at 0.5%.
26:34This will push the movement of ISG to weaken.
26:39My target is indeed to weaken the ISG in terms of support is around 7246, like that.
26:51Okay, if we look at the direction of the banks and also the recommendation of the quarterly work release in 2024,
26:57what is it like, which can then be chosen by the investor?
27:03Okay, actually, if we look at the quarterly work release for 2024,
27:08the main challenge of the banking sector is that
27:12there are no signs that BPI will reduce the level of its relations.
27:19But for those of you who want to buy big bank shares,
27:25I recommend BBNI shares,
27:28because the valuation is indeed cheaper than its competitors,
27:32and indeed, even now, the price is...
27:35BBRI or BBNI, sorry?
27:37BBNI.
27:38BBNI, yes.
27:39The normal price is also quite cheap.
27:41BNI46, yes.
27:43That's right.
27:43And if we look at the price action, it can still be said to support,
27:47because it is still around the level of 5,000 compared to its competitors, like that.
27:51Alright, okay.
27:52Those are some of the analyses that Mas Dhorik has delivered this morning.
27:55Hopefully, it can be a support for market players to invest today.
27:59Mas Dhorik, thank you for the analysis and also for your time this morning.
28:02Success always comes to those who try.