Tren Turun Hantui Surplus Neraca Perdagangan Indonesia
Badan Pusat Statistik atau BPS mencatat, neraca perdagangan Indonesia surplus sebesar USD2,39 miliar pada Juni 2024. Meski masih mencetak surplus, namun nilainya menurun alias lebih rendah dibandingkan bulan Mei 2024, yang tercatat sebesar USD2,93 miliar.
Pelaksana Tugas Kepala BPS Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti menjelaskan, neraca perdagangan Indonesia telah mencatatkan surplus selama 50 bulan berturut turut. Kinerja surplus ditopang komoditas non migas, yang tercatat mencapai USD4,43 miliar. Adapun komoditas penyumbang surplus utama adalah bahan bakar mineral, lemak dan minyak hewan nabati, hingga besi baja.
Adapun, nilai ekspor pada Juni tercatat USD20,84 miliar atau turun 6,65% secara bulanan. Dan secara bulanan, kontraksi ekspor di bulan Juni didorong oleh penurunan ekspor non migas. Sementara itu, nilai impor Indonesia pada Juni 2024 tercatat sebesar USD18,45 miliar.
Pelaksana Tugas Kepala BPS Amalia Adininggar Widyasanti menjelaskan, neraca perdagangan Indonesia telah mencatatkan surplus selama 50 bulan berturut turut. Kinerja surplus ditopang komoditas non migas, yang tercatat mencapai USD4,43 miliar. Adapun komoditas penyumbang surplus utama adalah bahan bakar mineral, lemak dan minyak hewan nabati, hingga besi baja.
Adapun, nilai ekspor pada Juni tercatat USD20,84 miliar atau turun 6,65% secara bulanan. Dan secara bulanan, kontraksi ekspor di bulan Juni didorong oleh penurunan ekspor non migas. Sementara itu, nilai impor Indonesia pada Juni 2024 tercatat sebesar USD18,45 miliar.
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TVTranscript
00:00INDONESIAN MARKET REVIEW
00:15Hello viewers, how are you today?
00:17Back again with me, Prasetyo Ibo
00:19in the Market Review program
00:21which will discuss the issues of Indonesian economic movements.
00:23And this time we will discuss
00:25related to Indonesian trade
00:27which has been experiencing surplus for 50 months in a row.
00:30But what's interesting is that the trend is starting to decline.
00:33Is there any signal that we need to pay attention to?
00:35Let's start the complete Market Review.
00:39INDONESIAN MARKET REVIEW
00:47Indonesian trade has again recorded a surplus in June 2024
00:51of US$2.39 billion.
00:55Even so, the trend of decline is still imaginable
00:58due to the surplus of Indonesian trade
01:00which has been going on for 50 months in a row.
01:09The Statistical Center, or BPS,
01:11recorded Indonesia's trade surplus
01:13of US$2.39 billion in June 2024.
01:19Although it still recorded a surplus,
01:22or lower than May 2024,
01:24which was recorded as large as US$2.93 billion.
01:28BPS Chief Executive Amalia Adinenggar Widyashanti explains
01:32Indonesian trade has recorded a surplus for 50 months in a row.
01:37Now the surplus is supported by the non-negative community
01:40which is recorded to reach US$4.43 billion.
01:44However, the main surplus donor community
01:46is mineral fuels, fat, and pet oil,
01:49not to mention steel.
01:51China is still Indonesia's main non-negative country
01:56with a contribution of 35.20%
02:01to Indonesia's total non-negative imports.
02:05A little lower than the previous month, which was 36.34%.
02:14Non-negative imports from China reached US$5.34 billion,
02:22or lower than May 2024,
02:26but higher than May last year.
02:31Amalia added that exports in June
02:34recorded US$20.84 billion,
02:37or down 6.65% monthly.
02:40The monthly export contract in June
02:42was supported by non-negative exports.
02:45Meanwhile, Indonesia's import value in June 2024
02:48recorded US$18.45 billion.
02:52From Jakarta, Harjo Padmo, IDX News.
02:59Okay, viewers.
03:00Next, we will talk about Kinerja,
03:02the trade surplus from December 2023
03:05to June 2024.
03:09Let's take a look at the trend
03:11of Indonesia's trade surplus movement.
03:14As you can see on your TV screen,
03:17in December 2023,
03:19US$3.31 billion was recorded.
03:22Then, from January to February,
03:25US$0.87 billion was recorded.
03:29However, in March 2024,
03:31it jumped to US$4.47 billion.
03:35The trend continued to decline
03:38until June 2024,
03:40which was just released by Badan Pusat Statistik.
03:43US$2.39 billion was recorded.
03:47Next, let's take a look at the trade surplus composition.
03:53From the export and import side,
03:55as you can see,
03:56US$20.84 billion was exported,
03:59and US$18.45 billion was imported.
04:03The import decreased by 4.89% monthly,
04:06and the export decreased by 6.65% monthly.
04:13To discuss our topic this time,
04:15related to the trend of Indonesian trade surplus decline,
04:18we have contacted Mr. Mohamad Faisal,
04:21the Director Executive Core Indonesia.
04:23Good morning, Mr. Faisal.
04:25Good morning, Mr. Pras.
04:27How are you, sir?
04:29Alhamdulillah, I'm fine.
04:31Thank you for your time.
04:33We're still waiting for you to join us.
04:35We have Mr. Adhito Juwono,
04:37who is the Head of the Export School.
04:39Before we start,
04:40let's hear a brief review from Indonesia's Core.
04:43Mr. Faisal,
04:44how do you see the development
04:47and national economic growth
04:49until mid-2024?
04:53Yes.
04:54By mid-2024,
04:58I see various macro indicators,
05:01such as export-import,
05:03and other indicators,
05:04such as household consumption, investment, etc.
05:07There is a tendency,
05:09there is a marginal weakness.
05:12This is not only in export-import,
05:15but also in economic indicators
05:18or the biggest contributor to GDP,
05:21which is household consumption and investment.
05:25I'll start with quarter 1.
05:27In quarter 1,
05:28if we look at household consumption,
05:30which is the biggest contributor,
05:33it only grew by 4.9%.
05:35This means it's much lower
05:37than household consumption growth
05:41before the pandemic,
05:42which was an average of 5%.
05:44And it's also slower
05:46compared to 2023-2022.
05:50Whereas in quarter 1,
05:52there are some moments
05:53that can support economic growth,
05:55consumption growth,
05:56such as voting cancellation
05:58or Ramadan and Eid.
06:01Then, investment.
06:02This is even slower.
06:04Only 2.7-2.8% in quarter 1.
06:07This is much lower than
06:09the pre-pandemic condition,
06:11which can grow up to 5-6%.
06:14If the two sources of economic growth
06:17are lower,
06:18this is when there is a voter.
06:20What if after the voter?
06:22This means the potential
06:24in quarter 2
06:26is relatively slower
06:28because some of those
06:30who can support economic growth
06:31in quarter 1
06:32are no longer in quarter 2.
06:34This can be seen
06:35from various indicators of consumption.
06:38If I look at the retail sales index,
06:40long-term goods sales,
06:42basic inflation, etc.,
06:44all tend to experience weakness,
06:46even though,
06:47if I look at the last condition,
06:49the weakness is actually relatively marginal.
06:52Marginal means not very sharp.
06:56Now, let's look at import export.
06:58Import export is interesting.
07:00As mentioned earlier,
07:02in June, the BPS released
07:05the surplus that experienced weakness.
07:09But I would like to suggest
07:12that we should not only
07:14look at the surplus
07:16or the weakness,
07:18but also look at export growth
07:20and import growth.
07:23In June,
07:25although the surplus is lower
07:28than in May
07:30and April,
07:32but in June,
07:34I think it's better.
07:38Because I don't just look at the surplus,
07:40but also look at the export and import movement.
07:43Why do I say it's better?
07:45Because in May,
07:47the surplus was higher.
07:48But this is because
07:50there was a weakness in import.
07:53Export also slowed.
07:55So, the wider surplus
07:57is not because of export expansion.
07:59Even import experienced a slowdown
08:02or contraction.
08:04This means that it indicates
08:06that the conditions in the country
08:08are not quite good.
08:09In June,
08:11if we look at it collectively,
08:14export and import are contracting.
08:16But in terms of year-on-year,
08:18it turns out that the import is higher.
08:21So, it's actually better
08:23if I look at the growth of import
08:25and also the growth of export.
08:27It turns out that if we make it in batches,
08:29the surplus becomes thinner.
08:32But whatever,
08:33if we relate it to the question
08:35of pre-economic conditions,
08:37from the import side,
08:39it tends to be weaker
08:41from January to June
08:43than last year.
08:46Especially export,
08:48which is weaker than last year.
08:50Import is actually a little higher,
08:52but the increase in import
08:54is more in consumer goods.
08:56While in goods that are suitable for production,
08:59such as raw materials, auxiliary materials,
09:01and also capital goods,
09:03the growth is very thin,
09:05even though the capital goods are contracting.
09:07Okay.
09:08Mr. Faisal, this is related to export,
09:10which you seem to respect,
09:12the growth is still quite good.
09:14We will discuss it later with Mr. Handito Juwono.
09:16We will interview him first.
09:18Good morning, Mr. Handito.
09:20Good morning, Mr. Faisal.
09:22Okay, good morning. Thank you.
09:24Good morning, sir.
09:25Mr. Handito,
09:26we will discuss about export.
09:28This is interesting.
09:29Mr. Faisal has outlined it earlier.
09:32What do you think?
09:33Is our export performance
09:35still quite okay?
09:37In the middle, from the trend side,
09:39our trade surplus
09:41tends to go down.
09:44Yes.
09:45Yesterday, I had a chance
09:50to enjoy
09:52what was thought of
09:54by the Minister of Trade,
09:56Mr. Givri Hassan.
09:58Okay.
10:00He said something
10:02that I agree with
10:04170%.
10:06He said something like this.
10:08It turns out that Indonesia's export
10:10is this.
10:11There are many things that we can optimize.
10:13There's coconut.
10:15There's ginger.
10:16There's coffee.
10:18And many other things.
10:20Agricultural products.
10:22For example, fisheries, farms,
10:24there are many of them.
10:26And things like that,
10:28all this time,
10:30we haven't seen enough.
10:32But I'm really happy
10:34with 170%.
10:36It's great.
10:37This is our future.
10:39That's right.
10:40So, indeed,
10:41we have to do an export revolution.
10:43What is an export revolution?
10:45We have to concentrate
10:47on something
10:49that can grow
10:51and continue in Indonesia.
10:53Yes, as long as nickel,
10:55as long as the country can still be used
10:57for mining, it's okay.
10:58But it can't be done in the long run.
11:00In the long run, we develop
11:02agricultural products, fisheries,
11:04forests,
11:05that are already in Indonesia,
11:07infrastructure.
11:09We have to improve it immediately.
11:11And optimize it immediately.
11:13Okay. There are some points
11:15on how we do an export revolution.
11:17What are the challenges?
11:19If we try to do
11:21one of them,
11:23focusing on Indonesia's export communities.
11:25We'll discuss it in the next segment, Pak Faisal.
11:27And Pak Andito, we'll leave you for a moment.
11:29Stay with us.
11:39Thank you for joining us
11:41in Market Review.
11:43In the next segment, we'll present data
11:45related to countries.
11:47The purpose of Indonesia's non-migrant export
11:49is from where?
11:51Yes, here it is.
11:53In June 2024 data,
11:55which has been released by the BPS,
11:57the purpose is China.
11:59We see 4.65 billion US dollars.
12:01Then the United States,
12:031.99 billion US dollars.
12:05And then China,
12:07then the United States,
12:091.97 billion US dollars.
12:11India, 1.84 billion US dollars.
12:13Then ASEAN, and some of its members,
12:153.62 billion US dollars.
12:17Then the purpose of the export
12:19to the European Union,
12:21there are about 27 countries,
12:231.21 billion US dollars.
12:25Next, we see the imported countries.
12:27Here it is.
12:29Where are the imported countries of Indonesia from?
12:31There's China too,
12:3332.45 billion US dollars.
12:35This is 35.41 percent.
12:37Interestingly, the import value
12:39is 32.45,
12:41while our export to China
12:43is 4.65 billion US dollars.
12:45Then Japan,
12:476.47 billion US dollars.
12:49Then Thailand, 4.87 billion US dollars.
12:51ASEAN, 16.32 billion US dollars.
12:53And the European Union,
12:555.89 billion US dollars.
12:57Okay, we'll continue our discussion
12:59with Mr. Muhammad Faisal,
13:01Director Executive Corps Indonesia,
13:03and Mr. Haditho Juwono,
13:05Head of the Export School.
13:07Mr. Faisal, this is interesting.
13:09If we look at some of the data
13:11that have been presented,
13:13what do you think?
13:15If there was a desire
13:17for an export revolution,
13:19as mentioned by Mr. Haditho,
13:21do you think the momentum
13:23is right or not?
13:25Or what about the challenge
13:27of coordination
13:29between, as we know,
13:31a number of countries
13:33that make our conditions
13:35stagnant at some points?
13:39Actually, I agree.
13:41In fact, we've been doing it
13:43for a long time.
13:45But if we talk about momentum,
13:47maybe the momentum is good
13:49because the new government
13:51emphasizes the importance
13:53of the agricultural sector.
13:55This sector includes
13:57agriculture, food planting,
13:59fisheries, and forestry.
14:01It's related to the fact
14:03that we have a lot of potential
14:05in agriculture.
14:07Not only that,
14:09palm oil is already very competitive
14:11in the world market.
14:13But we can't just
14:15continue to palm oil
14:17because our potential is not just palm oil.
14:19We have coffee, cocoa,
14:21coconut, rubber,
14:23and others
14:25whose potential is still below
14:27the realization
14:29of development,
14:31especially if we look at
14:33the potential for export
14:35to the world market.
14:37If we want to push
14:39hillarization there,
14:41this is very good in my opinion.
14:43One point that was said by Mr. Adito
14:45is that if we want hillarization,
14:47what is planted in agriculture
14:49is better, has a value plus
14:51compared to hillarization in the mining sector
14:53because what is in the mining sector
14:55will eventually run out
14:57because it is a non-renewable resource
14:59while this one does not run out.
15:01And the second is
15:03because it is actually more labor-intensive
15:05in agriculture.
15:07It can absorb more workers
15:09and the skills needed
15:11are closer to
15:13the level of skills and education
15:15of the public in general
15:17in Indonesia compared to
15:19the skills needed in mining
15:21and also in the law sector which is usually more specific.
15:23So it means
15:25it is easier to
15:27direct hillarization.
15:29But of course, the challenge is not easy.
15:31First, the mindset
15:33is not just to focus on palm oil.
15:35We focus on
15:37priority policy and also
15:39budget, of course.
15:41This must also be seen as an opportunity
15:43for other communities
15:45and if you want to push hillarization,
15:47there must be a synchronization
15:49from the policy side.
15:51The second is
15:53synchronization from the policy side to the hillarization side.
15:55For example,
15:57if we want to push the export of
15:59coffee, cocoa, etc.,
16:01it means that the supply
16:03from the policy side must support
16:05hillarization and industrialization
16:07in this sector.
16:09So,
16:11what often happens when we are not
16:13synchronized is that the policy side
16:15wants to export, while the hillarization side also wants to export.
16:17So, it is not synchronized.
16:19First, to be able to export
16:21to the hillarization side, which has a higher
16:23added value, the industrialization side,
16:25must first support
16:27the supply to the industry.
16:29So, it's not a competition
16:31for export.
16:33It's a competition with the hillarization side.
16:35This is an example of synchronization that is needed.
16:37That's the mindset.
16:39Then, secondly, there are also many things
16:41that need to be improved to boost
16:43productivity if we want
16:45to push hillarization because in reality
16:47now there are a lot of land in the farm
16:49that is outside the fence.
16:51The level of productivity is low because
16:53there are a lot of unproductive lands.
16:55This is lack of youth.
16:57Actually, if the youth is
16:59pushed, it can increase
17:01production, increase productivity,
17:03and boost hillarization.
17:05This is one of the things
17:07that must be pushed
17:09if we want to
17:11achieve hillarization that has
17:13a wider multiplier effect.
17:15Then, what was said
17:17by Mr. Pras related to the data
17:19from the export side, I also see that
17:21from the current potential,
17:23in the 7 countries of our export,
17:25if I look at the slightly positive ones,
17:27actually India and
17:29to some extent also America.
17:31The others are now
17:33experiencing weaknesses.
17:35China, the European Union,
17:37ASEAN, even those close to us.
17:39So, the challenge
17:41to then look for new markets,
17:43including markets for
17:45agricultural hillarization products
17:47that we want to push,
17:49this has to be wider
17:51outside the non-traditional market.
17:53So, there are many other countries
17:55that although the market is small,
17:57but still have potential
17:59because the growth is high.
18:01The number of middle-income population
18:03is also increasing.
18:05This must also be considered
18:07at a time when our traditional
18:09target market, China, the European Union,
18:11is now weak.
18:13This is the main requirement
18:15from the export target countries.
18:17Mr. Faisal, interesting.
18:19How about you, Mr. Jono?
18:21If indeed from the momentum side,
18:23this can be applied,
18:25but the challenge was
18:27how to synchronize policy
18:29as an exporter,
18:31do you see that
18:33so far you have found the same conditions
18:35when there is no synchronization there
18:37or is there already improvement?
18:39If we talk about the export revolution,
18:41the first thing is
18:43the courage to choose a product.
18:45No matter where we are,
18:47in any country,
18:49if we talk about export,
18:51we can't be purely marketing-oriented.
18:53We can't adjust what they want.
18:55We can't do that in some countries.
18:57In some countries,
18:59we have to optimize what we have.
19:01And what we have, of course,
19:03is sustainable.
19:05And agricultural products,
19:07farming, forestry,
19:09those are what we have.
19:11Others don't have as much as we do.
19:13So, we have to increase productivity
19:15to make it more efficient.
19:17So, we have to be brave.
19:19The export revolution has to start
19:21from the product.
19:23We have to be brave to focus
19:25on the renewable resources.
19:27That's number one.
19:29Second, we also have to be brave
19:31to choose a target market.
19:33Where do we want to export to?
19:35Let me see.
19:37Let's focus on three countries only.
19:39China, India,
19:41and ASEAN.
19:43The others,
19:45or those who are reluctant,
19:47just forget about it.
19:49Some countries are reluctant.
19:51Europe is reluctant.
19:53They buy a little, but ask for a lot.
19:55Just forget about it.
19:57I agree with the Minister of Trade.
19:59They are reluctant.
20:01They are reluctant.
20:03So, we have to
20:05be brave to focus on
20:07certain countries.
20:09ASEAN,
20:11China.
20:13I just came back from China.
20:15I was there for two weeks.
20:17I attended my son's graduation.
20:19It was only two hours, but I was there for two weeks.
20:21I went to several cities there.
20:23Their potential is still very big.
20:25If we talk about the target market,
20:27it has to be big.
20:29China, I think,
20:31their growth is still limited.
20:33Especially now,
20:35there is chaos there.
20:37But the market is still big.
20:39We have to take advantage of that. India,
20:41their growth is still good.
20:43ASEAN market is big.
20:45It's easy for us to go there.
20:47It's not our own experience.
20:49ASEAN's growth is also big.
20:51The others are reluctant.
20:53But there are three factors.
20:55After the export revolution,
20:57people are brave enough to choose a product.
20:59People are brave enough to choose the export price.
21:01Third,
21:03people are brave enough to make changes
21:05in Indonesia's export management.
21:07We still hear a lot about
21:09the lack of support for export.
21:11We have to be brave.
21:13The new government
21:15has to be brave enough to give incentives
21:17to the main targets
21:19and the main countries.
21:21That's our priority now.
21:23There are three items.
21:25From the ability or focus
21:27to the export mandate.
21:29Then, which export targets
21:31have been established.
21:33We have to be brave enough
21:35to change the export management.
21:37On the one hand,
21:39the importation of mechanical equipment
21:41is experiencing the biggest decline.
21:43Will this affect the energy industry
21:45in the country related to export?
21:47We will discuss it in the next segment.
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24:49We will be back soon.
24:51We will be back soon.
24:53We will be back soon.
24:55We will be back soon.
24:57We will be back soon.
24:59We will be back soon.
25:01We will be back soon.
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25:07We will be back soon.
25:09We will be back soon.
25:11We will be back soon.
25:13Do you think the government should collaborate?
25:17In my opinion, if the import value decreases,
25:19let it be.
25:21The smaller, the better.
25:23I see it this way.
25:25In my opinion, this is the right thing to do.
25:27Why should the government
25:29take care of the import value?
25:33It's not necessary.
25:35It's the business world's business.
25:37The business world needs the machines.
25:39If they don't need the machines,
25:41it's good for us if they don't need to import.
25:43But I suspect,
25:45and I hope it's true,
25:47that it's going to be the other way around.
25:49Countries that want to build
25:51big factories in Indonesia
25:53will delay or cancel it.
25:55In my opinion, let it be.
25:57Cancel it.
25:59But the investment won't go in.
26:01It will be natural.
26:03What should be pushed
26:05is the concentration on
26:07the development of renewable products.
26:09Agriculture, forestry, fisheries,
26:11all of these
26:13need the machines.
26:15But the machines are expensive.
26:19For example,
26:21durian.
26:23Durian can be exported fresh.
26:25But frozen,
26:27the machines are cheap.
26:29So, it's natural.
26:31If the import value decreases
26:33for the machines,
26:35let it be.
26:37We can produce food
26:39in the country.
26:41I'm worried.
26:43This is food production.
26:45If the food is liberalized,
26:47it will die.
26:49It's a pity.
26:51So, it needs to be maintained.
26:53It needs to be revived.
26:55The food needs to be maintained.
26:57If we can do this,
26:59in the context of the industrial revolution,
27:01Indonesia's economy,
27:03hopefully, will grow again.
27:05Thank you for your sharing.
27:07The most important thing is consistency.
27:09How we maintain and focus
27:11on several export communities
27:13to increase the markets in the country.
27:15Thank you, Mr. Faisal,
27:17for the information
27:19and the insights you shared
27:21about the economic condition
27:23and the position of Indonesia's import export.
27:25Thank you.
27:27Keep up your activities.
27:29Stay healthy.
27:31Thank you, Mr. Faisal.
27:35Thank you, Mr. Faisal.
27:37Stay healthy.
27:39Stay healthy.
27:41Stay healthy.
27:43Stay healthy.
27:45Stay healthy.
27:47Stay healthy.
27:49Thank you.