Mid-Season MLB Analysis: Yankees, Orioles Lead the Charge
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00:00Now, here at the All-Star break around Major League Baseball, we will take a look at both
00:09leagues, the pennant prices as we get ready for the remainder of this home stretch of
00:14the 2024 MLB season.
00:17Now, I'm kind of a sticker when we get to this at the NBA All-Star break here during
00:22the Major League Baseball campaign as well.
00:25It's the halfway point of the Major League Baseball season, a time to reset, except really
00:30it's not.
00:31The Yankees have played 98 games.
00:33Most teams around the bigs have played at least 95 games this year in Major League Baseball.
00:38Out of 162, we're well past that midway point of around 81.
00:44But still, we use the time to reset.
00:47Now at the break, and we start in the American League.
00:50The New York Yankees, winning the series this weekend before the All-Star break in
00:55Baltimore, unable to complete the sweep yesterday, though, inside Camden Yards.
01:00But the Yankees had a 50-cent advantage on the O's entering this weekend's set.
01:05Now a 70-cent advantage, plus 2.40 for the Yanks, the O's at plus 3.10.
01:11Donnie, let's start at the top, and then we'll find the value elsewhere around this board.
01:16How tightly contested do you think the race for the pennant will be between New York and
01:21Baltimore?
01:22Oh, it's going to be like this all the way through.
01:23It really is.
01:24You've got two quality teams in the same division that also are leveling up, or we expect to
01:28be leveling up, come post-All-Star break, heading into that trade deadline.
01:32You also take a look at the Orioles.
01:34Very important for them, as I talked about just psychology-wise, just to have that game
01:37lead over the Yankees, not lose that in that nice little comeback in the ninth inning.
01:41But for my money, I do think it reads correctly right now at the Fandu Sportsbook, where the
01:45Yankees at a plus 2.40 price and a plus 3.10 price here for the Baltimore Orioles.
01:49For me, the two best teams in the American League, and I still do think the Yankees overall
01:54will be the better team here, which means they're going to win that division, get home
01:58field advantage, and should be able to win the American League pennant.
02:01Now, granted, still a long way to go.
02:03Injuries are going to happen, but if I'm looking at the team the Yankees have compared to the
02:07Orioles, it's pretty even at this point, but I do agree that the Yankees are the slight
02:11favorite here in the odds market at the Fandu Sportsbook.
02:15Even if Baltimore had gone on a tear to end late last week, in fact, they got swept at
02:21home by the Cubs and lost two of three against New York.
02:24Let's say the O's had four, four and a half game lead in the American League East.
02:29I still believe the Yankees would have been an ever so slight favorite, even at just a
02:33couple of cents in front of Baltimore, and I agree with the price.
02:38Now, the O's are still a young group.
02:40Of course, last year were the number one seed in the American League postseason, but bounced
02:44in that second round in the division series, swept by the Rangers in a best of five.
02:51So those are the two teams at the top still battling for positioning in their own division.
02:55Donnie, I've asked you this question so many different ways throughout the first half of
03:00this Major League Baseball campaign.
03:02Do you buy any of the stock into the American League Central, whether it's the Twins, who
03:07still trail the Guardians in the division, and Cleveland ever so slightly a better record
03:12by a half game over the O's entering the all-star break?
03:16That's the best mark in all of the American League.
03:18How about the Astros that have resurfaced at an eight to one price?
03:22Do you think it is worth betting any number outside of those top two teams in the AL?
03:27Yeah, again, you're just looking for darts to throw and say, you know what, if I can
03:32get one of these in the bullseye, I can probably make some money, which is why we talked about
03:35the Texas Rangers last week at that 80 to one price point to win the World Series, which
03:39quite frankly is still there.
03:40I believe they're 30, does that say 30 to one up there at this point right now?
03:43Yes.
03:4430 to one to win the American League.
03:45I don't think that's such a bad option because you're right.
03:48If we're looking at teams and if it's top heavy and it's the Orioles and the Yankees
03:52that you think are the best two teams are in the same division, I agree with that, but
03:55also keep in mind, like we're not like back in like the 1930s, it's like, okay, number
03:59one and number two, that's who goes into with home field advantage.
04:03Like no, the Orioles, if they win the division, we'll have home field advantage or the Yankees,
04:07if they win the AL East.
04:08The reason I bring that up is Cleveland Guardians, Minnesota Twins or Royals.
04:12Somebody's going to win that division, which means first round, they're going to get home
04:15field advantage as opposed to a wild card team, which would be end or the Yankees.
04:18Or I should have said the Orioles and or the Yankees.
04:21You take a look at the Mariners, Astros and Rangers.
04:24Somebody's going to win that division, Ben.
04:25Somebody is going to have home field advantage over the wild card position.
04:28And that's what key to try to line up.
04:30So for my money, though, do I like the Guardians?
04:32I do.
04:33Fifty and thirty seven is a quality record at the all star break.
04:35Do I like the twins?
04:36Fifty four and forty two.
04:37I do.
04:38I just look at those two teams differently than I would say maybe the upper echelon
04:42teams like the Orioles and the Yankees, because I'm not trying to project about what the record
04:45is right now.
04:46I'm trying to project what that team is going to look at come playoff time.
04:50Do we have enough superstar talent in front end rotation with the Guardians and the Minnesota
04:54Twins?
04:55Because, you know, it's going to probably happen with the Yankees and the Orioles.
04:57They're going to make those acquisitions to beef up their team, knowing that they're going
05:01toe to toe down the stretch.
05:03That's the only reason why I'm sort of downplaying like the Guardians at this point, the twins
05:06and the Royals in the central.
05:07Now, do I think Seattle's going to make a lot of moves?
05:09I actually don't.
05:10Do I think the Astros have a ton to make moves with?
05:13I don't think so either.
05:14Are the Rangers going to have to make moves?
05:15You know, they have a huge payroll with guys.
05:17They're hoping to just come back.
05:19So getting back to the two teams at the top, the Orioles and the Yankees.
05:23That's why I'm so high on those teams.
05:24I like what I see right now and I think they're actually going to improve themselves within
05:28two weeks.
05:29That's why I have those two guys shelved up top.
05:31So trusting the central, I like those teams, Ben.
05:34I just don't have trust in them to win it.
05:37You know, Donnie, I think it is a really fascinating point that you bring up because again, let's
05:41talk about value.
05:43What is value?
05:44Can you get to a cash out or a hedge out opportunity or is value cashing the actual ticket?
05:49Because right now, I still think the American League runs through the AL East and those
05:54two teams at the top.
05:56Yes, Houston is playing better.
05:57The Astros have been at least in the American League championship series each of the past
06:02seven MLB campaigns, but I do find it difficult to look elsewhere and think a team can actually
06:08win the pennant as of this moment.
06:10However, the wildcard race is going to be fascinating.
06:13The Yankees, Twins and Red Sox in those spots right now, the Red Sox to like 20 to one price.
06:19I believe there is some value there on Boston if they can be one of those playoff teams
06:26in the AL and I expect them to be, but it's going to be a competitive race for those wildcard
06:31positions.
06:32I say all of that right now because to win a pennant, you need to win, of course, through
06:36those playoff rounds in the American League.
06:39But as we have seen with the expanded postseason, Donny, each of the past two Octobers, chaos
06:44happens.
06:45The Rangers were the final team into the American League playoff bracket.
06:48They won the pennant and they won a World Series.
06:51So a lot can happen come October, of course.
06:53Oh, of course.
06:54Yes.
06:55And you have a lot more mileage on these arms.
06:57So those dominant pitching staffs throughout these summer months here might get a little
07:00bit light.
07:01And that's what Max Scherzer over the years, dominant during the regular season, runs out
07:03of gas at the end.
07:04Sometimes it's just a matter of how good those starters are at the end of the season and
07:08how your bullpen matches up.
07:09But you're right about that.
07:10The new wildcards entering into this, everybody has a legitimate chance to win.
07:14And also keep in mind, once again, you don't have to win the regular season.
07:17You have to win in the playoffs for people to cash.
07:20But you want to be in those positions and we'll do the same around the NL next.
07:24First in the American League, now in the NL at the all-star break around Major League
07:28Baseball, where those pennant prices stand and where there might be some value to be
07:33had.
07:34Let's start as we did DRS in the AL at the top of the National League.
07:38The Philz in a marquee matchup in the final week before the all-star break, sweeping the
07:43LA Dodgers at home.
07:45And yes, the Philz did lose yesterday, 18 to 3.
07:47And yes, they did lose the weekend set against the Oakland Athletics, but still the best
07:52team in Major League Baseball, the best record.
07:54So of course, that carries over to the NL.
07:57The Dodgers will enter the all-star break, losing 8 of their last 11 games.
08:02So we start at the top, LA still 20 cents in front of the Phytons, plus 180 for Los
08:09Angeles, plus 200 for Philadelphia.
08:12I ask you this question to begin, should the Phillies have the second best odds or should
08:18the Phillies be the favorites?
08:21Based on what we've seen over the first half of the season, and granted, I'm going to say
08:24the Phillies should be the favorites here.
08:26But also, you got to take a look at the way the sports folks operate as well.
08:29There's a lot of money that came in on the Dodgers right away, so that's still playing
08:33in to that price point for them.
08:34But having said that, also, what did you take away out of that three-game series where the
08:38Philadelphia Phillies swept the Dodgers?
08:39Well, you took away that the Phillies are supposed to win those games, and they did,
08:42widening their margin, which helps them in that chase for the number one overall seed,
08:46which they're probably going to get.
08:48However, once you get to the playoffs, it's not going to be Aaron Nola versus an opener
08:52against the Dodgers like we were seeing over the weekend, or last week.
08:55That's not going to be the case.
08:56The Dodgers, when they get their pitchers back from IL and add on at the deadline, are
09:00going to be a much more formidable opponent.
09:02The one thing we have to remind ourselves, it's similar to football, right?
09:06If you have a very good quarterback, sometimes it doesn't really matter who's around you
09:10as long as they're confident, you're going to win your fair share of football games.
09:13The reason I equate that to baseball is if you have a dominant pitcher on the mound and
09:16your lineup isn't so good, a la the Braves right now, you have a chance to win every
09:21single game because the pitcher is the most important position on that field on a game-to-game
09:25basis.
09:26And you always hear this adage, you're only as good as the starting pitcher momentum for
09:29the next day, right?
09:30So when you sort of break that down, the Dodgers have been throwing out junk after junk after
09:35junk, just trying to get to the deadline when the Phillies are throwing Zach Wheeler and
09:39throwing Aaron Nola out yet and Sanchez, that's going to work out much, much better case in
09:43point.
09:44You saw yesterday with the Phillies in Oakland, it feels like, ah, well, we was going to miss
09:47his final start bullpen game turns out 18 runs for Oakland.
09:51You're only as good as the starting pitcher that you have on the mound that day.
09:55And trust me, the Dodgers will be much better with the starting pitching staff, at least
09:58we hope in the months of August, September, and October.
10:02Just quickly here so we can highlight what Oakland did yesterday, 18 runs.
10:06They had three players hit multiple home runs, Lawrence Butler, Brett Rooker, and Seth Brown.
10:12Crazy.
10:13Lawrence Butler had three home runs and six RBIs yesterday.
10:17The first time, of course, as you would expect in franchise history for the A's, they've
10:21had three players hit multiple home runs, two plus long balls in a single game.
10:27Donnie, there are arguments that were kind of jokes, but now I think very true that the
10:31Dodgers IL team could beat their everyday roster at the moment because the starting
10:37pitching would have such an upper hand with Tyler Glass now and Yoshi Yamamoto and Clayton
10:42Kershaw and Dustin May still all on the injured list, despite the offensive firepower that
10:49might be there on the other side.
10:51The Braves, the third best price at plus 460.
10:55There are five teams around Major League Baseball at this moment that enter the All-Star break
11:00with a nine to one price or better to win a World Series.
11:03The Phillies, Dodgers, Yankees, Orioles, and those Braves in the World Series market.
11:09You have to double Atlanta's price to get to Cleveland at 18 to one.
11:14Are the Braves in your estimation, Donnie, because of that pitching staff, despite what
11:19they don't have in Spencer Strider or Ronald Acuna Jr.
11:23Is Atlanta still a legitimate contender to win the National League pennant?
11:27I'm going to say no, but let's fast forward and say like, we're not going to have any
11:31missteps with sale and or Lopez and they're just as dominant.
11:34Why don't they have a chance at that point?
11:36But you're still trying to extrapolate.
11:38Is sale going to be this effective in 60 days?
11:41Same thing with Lopez at this point, I'm going to say probably not.
11:44And I just don't think they have enough firepower overall, but as always tell you guys, that's
11:48a great front office.
11:49They're going to make adjustments.
11:50They're going to improve their team at the deadline.
11:53Something to watch.
11:54But by the way, quick little side topic on what happened in Philadelphia and yesterday,
11:57Ben, when you like to make me commissioner of sports, explain to me why position players
12:02pitch in Major League Baseball and make a mockery of the game late.
12:06We don't do that really in any other sport at this point.
12:09And also for the Phillies to say, well, we didn't want to use any of our bullpen.
12:12Oh, that's right.
12:13Yeah.
12:14You know what?
12:15They're all spent.
12:16They're burnt out.
12:17They're all spent to try to get that bullpen back with some rest.
12:19So you couldn't throw an extra guy out of the bullpen as opposed to Garrett Stubbs giving
12:23up the run after run, home run after home run.
12:26That's embarrassing.
12:27Part of the sport that we don't talk about all that much.
12:29There should never, ever be a position player that ever throws a single pitch in a Major
12:34League Baseball game.
12:35That's ridiculous.
12:37I don't know if you want to be the commissioner of MLB or the manager of the Phillies.
12:41See you later, Rob.
12:42Tom.
12:43Yeah.