NFL Insider Discusses Key Team Changes | Analysis | Predictions
Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00All right, Adam Kaplan is our NFL insider.
00:08You can follow him on X for free at Kaplan NFL.
00:11He's covered the league for almost 30 years.
00:13He's been on sports grid with me for five years.
00:16He's undeniable, unequaled by his peers, and he's on coast to coast regularly and on the
00:22grid regularly.
00:23You can catch him all over the place on sports grid.
00:26Thank God for that.
00:27And you can even follow him on the sports grid app.
00:30So Adam, why don't we start with the Steeler story coming out of Pittsburgh with Sutton
00:35who's having a bad day.
00:38Yeah.
00:39So Cam Sutton, the veteran corner who the Lions cut earlier this offseason due to a
00:45off the field domestic violence issue.
00:48So Sutton signed a one year minimum deal.
00:51Today he was suspended.
00:53The Steelers were notified.
00:54He knew it was coming.
00:55It's not a secret.
00:56It's not six games.
00:57That's the baseline for domestic violence or a violation of personal conduct policy.
01:01It's eight games, not weeks.
01:03It's actual games.
01:04So he could practice with the team and train a camp.
01:06He actually can play in the preseason.
01:09Once the team sets its initial 53 man roster, he goes what's called on the reserve suspended
01:15list.
01:16So he doesn't count against the roster.
01:17They could replace him on the roster every serves the eight games.
01:21They would have to make room for him to put him back on the roster.
01:24What they'll do, and they made a trade for Dante Jackson.
01:27He was acquired in the Deontay Johnson trade with the Panthers, but Dante Jackson was expected
01:32to start anyway and Sutton with being the third outside corner.
01:36So their depth at the outside corner position is impacted by this situation with Sutton
01:41out for eight games.
01:42This is an issue.
01:43I'll look at Corey Trice, by the way, who was the seventh runner last year.
01:47They really like it.
01:48He suffered a torn ACL.
01:49He's doing well, I'm told.
01:51That's a guy to watch and train a camp.
01:52He's got a real shot, not only to make the team, but to contribute.
01:56I mean, besides Minka and Joey Porter Jr, again, this is their issue.
02:04People always say it's their offensive coordinator.
02:08It's their offense.
02:09They're so boring, this and that, but the reality is it's the back end of their defenses
02:13that has been killing them the last couple of years.
02:17They can't stop anybody.
02:19They got one or two guys and that's it.
02:20It's not enough.
02:22Yeah, it's the cornerback position.
02:24It's been the problem.
02:25Joey Porter Jr will be a full-time starter now, no question about it.
02:28He's their best corner.
02:29So that's something to look at.
02:30You're right.
02:31Those teams will spread them out.
02:32But Mick is back from his injury.
02:34Watt's back from his injury.
02:37They're a little bit older on their front, but this is going to be a good defense.
02:41But when you try to beat the Steelers, you don't run it.
02:43You throw the football.
02:44You and I probably would agree on that.
02:45All right.
02:46Let's do it.
02:47We're going to break down the AFC East today.
02:50Let's start with the Buffalo Bills.
02:52All right.
02:53So this is for training camp, right?
02:54So the Bills, you and I have talked about the Bills this offseason.
02:58It's really interesting.
02:59So their win total, the over at 9.5 is minus 160.
03:04Clearly the oddsmakers think that they'll do that.
03:06In fact, most people do.
03:07That's why the number is what it is.
03:09The under, by the way, is plus 130 at 9.5.
03:12Now to win the East, it's plus 165.
03:16You like them.
03:17Now's the time to get out on them.
03:18Now, the offense is going to change a little bit.
03:21Joe Brady, the offense coordinator, who took over for Ken Dorsey, who was fired during
03:24the season.
03:25They'll never be a run offense.
03:28Let's clear this up because there's too much misinformation out there.
03:30But they'll run the ball more than we've been used to with Josh Allen being the quarterback.
03:34There's still going to be a spread offense.
03:37That's going to happen.
03:38They're not the deepest team at wide receiver.
03:40The starters there, Keon Coleman, they're excited about.
03:43He'll be their ex-receiver.
03:45Curtis Samuel, they know him a little bit.
03:47They did a lot of work on him.
03:49He'll share time with Khalil Shakir at that number two spot.
03:52Samuel is probably going to play a little bit more.
03:56They're not super deep to tight end, but they're deep enough with their two guys.
04:01Kincaid's the guy to watch.
04:02The offensive line's undergone a couple of changes.
04:05But Pharrell, the issue with the Bills is on defense.
04:07I'm not really worried about their offense.
04:09I'm worried about their defense.
04:10Lack of a pass rush did them in last season.
04:13They're going to have two new starting safeties, one new starting outside corner.
04:15They need to get the pass rush back.
04:17Carver High's favorite player, Matt Milano, is back at linebacker.
04:20And man, did they miss him when he suffered that serious leg injury.
04:24They lost a lot of star players.
04:27And their back end is, right now, a problem.
04:32It's a weakness.
04:33And at some point, somebody just has to say it.
04:36Von Miller was terrible last year.
04:38What makes anyone think he's going to be better this year?
04:40He looked shot.
04:42And he's 35, which he turned in March.
04:44And he was coming back with an ACL injury.
04:46He took a pay cut.
04:48He's in the twilight of his career.
04:49Greg Russo's back.
04:51They have to figure out how they're going to get to the quarterback.
04:53That is a problem.
04:54They're not a big blitz team, by the way.
04:55They're a big zone defensive team.
04:57It's going to be hard.
04:59That is why, to me, the Bills should not be the favorite.
05:02I know they're the odds maker's favorite and the fans' favorite,
05:04because people are still loading up on the Bills.
05:06But the team we got number two here, the Jets, they're the team that I think is
05:10going to upset the Bills for this division.
05:12So you're going to take the Jets to win the division,
05:16it sounds like, what I just heard.
05:18And we know for a fact that this team, you know, I've always said,
05:23I've been here 25 years.
05:25Every year, I read the same thing in August.
05:28The Jets and the Giants are going to the Super Bowl.
05:31Every year, the same thing.
05:32That, you know, gang green this, gang green that, big blue.
05:36Oh, God.
05:38And they both stink.
05:40And all I've heard is that the Jets are going to the Super Bowl with Aaron Rodgers,
05:44and the Jets are loaded, and the Jets are deep.
05:48The Jets stink, and their coach stinks.
05:51Their coaching staff stinks.
05:54And then their quarterback played for five seconds,
05:57but now everyone's got them going to the Super Bowl, and you too.
06:01I don't know about Super Bowl, but here's the deal.
06:03The over is minus 150 at nine and a half, by the way.
06:07Nine and a half wins is the number.
06:08The under is plus 125, and to win the division, it's plus 190.
06:13Still, the Bill's a small favorite.
06:15You mentioned Rodgers.
06:16He's back.
06:16He looked fine in OTAs.
06:18Got to protect him.
06:20They redid their offensive line.
06:22Two new starters to tackle.
06:23They're older, though.
06:24Tyron Smith is their left tackle.
06:28You hope he holds up.
06:29They spent the first-round pick on an offensive lineman, Pashano.
06:33We'll see how he does.
06:35The right side, they brought back Morgan Moses.
06:40Three new starters, two tackles, so we'll see how that holds up.
06:43That does concern me, but the protection will be better.
06:45Defensively, they're phenomenal, possibly Pharrell.
06:48The NFL's best defense.
06:49They're terrific, terrific on defense.
06:51Not great at center.
06:54Great at corner.
06:55Great front, and they add Hassan Redick.
06:57If Rodgers plays at least 14 out of 17 games,
07:01they are locked to win that division.
07:02You heard it here first.
07:03If their defense is so phenomenal, how come they never win?
07:09Quarterback, man.
07:10You saw what happened last season.
07:12They didn't have a good backup.
07:13Now they got Tyron Taylor, who's a little bit better
07:15than what they had.
07:16All right, I've heard it all.
07:18I'm going to hurl, okay?
07:20I'm going to remember this.
07:22I think the Dolphins are going to be a problem
07:24for everyone in this division.
07:27Well, offensively, it's not the problem.
07:28They're working on Tua's contract.
07:30We'll see if it gets done before training camp starts.
07:32Their win total, also nine and a half.
07:35The over's minus 135, so on your point,
07:37it's really tight between the other two teams and them.
07:39The under nine and a half is plus 110,
07:43so clearly the odds makers think this thing's going over
07:45nine and a half.
07:46They're bringing back the same offensive personnel.
07:49OBJ's in there as their third receiver,
07:51where it was a problem last season, so they've upgraded there.
07:53Two new starters from the offensive line,
07:55left-guarded.
07:57The big issue for them is new defense coordinator
07:59Anthony Weaver, and a lot of new personnel on defense,
08:02Scott, five new starters.
08:03That's a concern.
08:04That's why they're the number three team for me
08:06in that division.
08:08Well, you know, I'll believe it when I see it.
08:11I think they're going to be a tough team.
08:12They made the playoffs.
08:13They lose in the playoffs.
08:14They got to learn how to win in the playoffs.
08:16They always fail when they get to the postseason.
08:20And speaking of failing,
08:22the Patriots are going to fail miserably.
08:25Four and a half win total, over minus 160.
08:29The honors, plus 130.
08:30So within division, the longest odds of any 30,
08:33of the 32 teams, plus 2,500.
08:36That tells you all you need to know.
08:38New quarterback, Drake May,
08:39unlikely to start their first round pick
08:41at the beginning of the season.
08:42Eventually, he'll start in season,
08:43but that's why they got Jacobi Brissette.
08:45They lack a true number one receiver.
08:47Defensively, super competitive.
08:49They're going to run the same scheme under Gerard Mayo.
08:51The defense won't be the problem.
08:53They get Christian Gonzalez back,
08:54their first round pick at corner from his injury.
08:56Offensively, Scott,
08:57they're going to have trouble scoring.
08:59They're a five to six win team for me.
09:00Actually, I kind of like the open four and a half,
09:02but it is telling when they only have four and a half win total.