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00:00The prop perspective on this Monday that means only one thing our jack-of-all-trades
00:05Tom Vecchio back here on this Monday on the early line on SportsGrid the home run prop king
00:11one week out from the home run derby in
00:14Arlington and of course a look at all that we have around a seven game slate in Major League Baseball on this Monday
00:21Not just that Vecchio, but a future forecast as well following the 4th of July holiday weekend
00:26Hope your Independence Day and a long holiday weekend was great. Glad to have you here on this Monday
00:32Yeah, thanks for having me. We are in you know, I want to say moving towards the dog days of the MLB season
00:38I want to make a quick note that
00:40Early before the season started I said Bobby Witt to lead the league in hits and right now about halfway through the year
00:45He's number one in the league with 119 hits. I'm ready to get ready to get going
00:50He is doing that right now
00:52119 for Bobby Witt in KC
00:55118 for Luis Araya's for now the San Diego Padres Vecchio
01:00Let's go big picture to start them which windle it down to the seven game slate on this Monday around Major League Baseball
01:07We've looked at the World Series odds a few times here on this show
01:10the Dodgers still the short favorites at
01:12Three to one the updated numbers the Phil's and the Yanks tied for that second best price at five to one the Orioles
01:197 to 1 the Braves a 9 to 1 number
01:22That's the top 5 and $11 drop off to the American League's best team in the Guardians
01:27There's four teams at that 20 to 1 price
01:31So Vecchio, where does your attention go?
01:33First the top of the board the Dodgers the Phil's the Yanks or maybe some longer prices in some value deeper down the board
01:41Yeah, it would be moving down the board with the Guardians and like you said best record
01:45I don't want to say that they have the division locked up right now
01:48But they're looking pretty good. It comes down to the trade deadline. Can they acquire another frontline starter?
01:54I want to say their pitching is good right now and they've great hitting it
01:56It's not always a ton of power
01:57But you know Steven Kwan at the top of that lineup getting on base producing runs when they need to but can they acquire another?
02:03Elite pitcher to have them go head-to-head with those two frontline starters, which you really need to have the playoff
02:09So I like them
02:10I don't think there's value on the Orioles the Yankees or any of those teams the Braves are a bit of a mystery to me
02:14Right now they look good. They look horrible. They're all over the place
02:17So give me the Orioles right now, excuse me, not yours. Give me the Guardians at 20 to 1
02:21Let me ask you a quick question on this to Tom
02:23You take a look at that al West which is so
02:25mangled and crazy right now the Mariners and the Astros are a 20 to 1 price the Rangers at an 80 to 1 price if
02:31You're looking at the Mariners. What are the expectations moving forward post all-star break?
02:35It looked like they were gonna easily win this division and now they're fighting with the Astros who should be dead and the Rangers who?
02:40Can't get out of their own way. What are we looking at that al West here in that market?
02:44For the Mariners they gonna acquire some hitting right? They have the pitching up there. They have Kirby. They've Logan Gilbert's
02:49I think they have what it takes when it comes to the pitching but they just do not have the offense and you know
02:53J-rod got hurt. He left the game. He has the MRI like what are they doing?
02:56You know Pete Alonzo's name keeps popping up
02:58Will there he'll be traded there?
02:59so they have to get the hitting going because I just can't trust them to produce enough to even have a shot to make the
03:05Playoffs because this dogfight that they're and I think it's gonna happen until literally the last weekend of the season. I
03:10Think the best value on the Houston Astros is plus
03:14125 to win the American League West and if that's going to be the case
03:17Then you might have some value in the American League pennant prices as well on the Stroh's
03:22But there's a lot of baseball to be played Seattle struggling at this moment. They have lost nine of their last 13
03:28Let's go individual now back. Yo the American League
03:32Award races that we have of the components that we have up here six
03:37Awards with odds available on the fan duel sports book only two of the six have a minor or a non-minus
03:44Money plus money favorite Tarik schubel in front of Corbin Burns in the Cy Young race
03:50Wyatt Langford of the Texas Rangers barely in front of Louise heel in the American League rookie of the year
03:57Odds Vecchio of the American League award races, which to you is most compelling
04:02It's gotta be the AL MVP
04:05We know judges like looking like their runaway favorite as of now
04:07I think Gunnar Henderson has a clear case to be made for him as well
04:11But I got to go with my bot my guy Bobby Witt at 20 to 1
04:15Getting on base in producing runs producing offense. Will he ever have you know, same amount of home runs as Henderson or
04:21Judge, of course, I never gonna have the same amount of RBI as all those sorts of things
04:24But at his price, I think he's a realistic third option right now. I think the odds are just a little bit too long
04:30If we're taking a look at the National League here, it looks like it's gonna be show
04:33Hey Otani's to lose at this point. It's a minus
04:36330 price which means he's headway above Bryce Harper and Freddie Freeman and Marcel Ozuna
04:41Let me ask you this question because it's easy to say is
04:44Otani going to win it because he's favorite to give me an idea on Bryce Harper and let's just say Freddie Freeman
04:48Is there any way they can close the gap on trail Otani? And how can they get that done?
04:54If Harper comes back and he's producing home runs at a high rate and we see
04:59Maybe Mookie Betts come back around the same time. You know, if we see Otani stats on a head-to-head basis
05:04We have to look at the fact that he's being surrounded by two other
05:08MVP caliber players when Harper is and I know Schwarzer is great and I know
05:12Alec bombs have been awesome season
05:14but on a head-to-head basis if we see that Harper is doing more individually compared to
05:18Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts these two perennial all-stars that are kind of
05:22I
05:23Want to say protecting Otani in the lineup. We can look at Harper as a viable MVP candidate on a year-to-year basis
05:30plus 950 that number for Harper the odds so strong for both judge and Otani in either league in the MVP race
05:38That there is Aaron judge versus the American League field and Shohei Otani versus the National League field
05:44Available to bet as well the reigning National League pennant winners off to a slow start this year
05:50But the D backs playing better baseball as of late. They've won six of their last eight
05:55They host the Atlanta Braves who avoided the weekend sweep at home against the Philadelphia Phillies
06:01Yesterday, but Chris sale who you saw in National League
06:04Cy Young contention and they have the odds on favorite to win the new comeback player of the year award in the National League on
06:11the bump today in
06:12Phoenix Atlanta nearly a $2 favorite on the road in Arizona. Are the odds correct Tom?
06:18I think the odds are looking fine, you know sale has been tremendous
06:22I gotta say I was pretty low on him coming into the year didn't expect it at least as
06:26Consistently as he's been doing it. We know the strikeouts would always be there for sale, but would it be as consistent?
06:30He's absolutely proving me wrong. I know for today
06:32I like going to Ozzie Albee's for two plus total bases, you know a bit of a slow start to the year
06:37Spend some time on the IL he's going up against Gilbert Diaz who is making his or should be making his first start for the
06:42Dimebacks we look to obvious Ozzie Albee's in terms of month-over-month after the IL his ISO his WRC pluses
06:49They're all increasing in July granted
06:51It's only six games same size, but they were also increasing in June
06:53So he's trending upward after it really Ross starts the year with the injury. So all these two plus total bases today
07:00First game on the night slate here tonight Tom
07:02Not a lot of household names particularly from the pitching end of it Williams versus Montero a minus 48 minus 148 favorite
07:08Excuse me at the fan blue sportsbook for the road team the Cleveland Guardians in a total of eight and a half Cleveland Detroit
07:14What can we look forward to tonight on that one?
07:16It's going to Gavin Williams under four and a half strikeouts at minus 111
07:20This is only a second start of the year. It's 74 pitches in the first start
07:24So it's not like he's gonna be up at 90 95 pitches
07:26It'll be maybe in the mid to low 80s get 82 innings pitch last year at a twenty three point five percent strike a rate
07:32Also the ten point seven percent walk rate and yes this year in AAA a bit of a smaller sample size the strikeouts were going
07:36For him, but the walks are still an issue
07:38And yeah, the Tiger strikeout at twenty four point two percent versus Brady's which the eighth worst in the league
07:42I just don't see him lasting that long deep into the game
07:45Especially the walks continue to pile up that will drive up his pitch count and ultimately he's a modest strikeout pitcher overall
07:51Yes, we're seeing a higher rate in AAA this year, but last year than the majors
07:54It was only at twenty three and a half percent, which is super super average. So under four and a half for Williams tonight
08:00When you look at the numbers right now minus 148 in favor of Cleveland
08:04The Guardians the best record in all of the American League Vecchio exactly one week from today in
08:11Arlington the 2024 home run Derby Pete Alonzo in the field, but not many others Gunnar Henderson Alec Boehm
08:17What are we gonna find out the full list of eight to compete in the home run Derby?
08:22That should be coming out this week
08:24I gotta say I have a lot of interest if Christian Walker makes the list
08:28I think he's been awesome as of late obviously terrorizing the Dodgers over the weekend with multiple runs
08:33So if he makes the list, I'll be on board that I don't expect judge to go if Otani's in there
08:38He's probably gonna be one of the favorites. I think that's fine
08:40But again, as I said last year it comes down to the bracket which player has the path to winning multiple rounds the easiest
08:46And we'll get those odds when they come out
08:49Christian Walker slightly snub from the National League all-star team
08:53Maybe with a grudge or a chip on the shoulder to be there at the home run Derby
08:58That's why he's the home run prop King even a week out from the Derby. He lets you know what you need to know Vecchio
09:05I hope we talk next week to look at the actual bracket of eight for the home run Derby
09:09And you can shine thank you for being here as always for the prop perspective on this Monday