Mets vs. Pirates Game Preview: An Afternoon Matchup
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00:00Now we go to the earliest game on the card, the fourth and final of an extended weekend
00:08series between the Mets and the Pirates in Pittsburgh.
00:13The Pirates as a home Moneyline favorite today, looking to split this four-game set.
00:17The New York Mets looking for a series victory as the underdog on the Moneyline today.
00:23Early start, 12.36 p.m. Eastern Time.
00:26What gives inside PNC?
00:27And by the way, 87 degrees here at first pitch, there's going to be a cooker out there
00:31at PNC Park.
00:33If you take a look at the wind conditions, it's not really going to help either way,
00:35slight wind blowing out to left field.
00:37If you take a look at Mitch Keller, here's sometimes what's tough, which can trip you
00:40up when you're trying to back RBI props.
00:42You look at Mitch Keller the last 30 days, 107 total batters he's faced, a .247 ISO and
00:48a .357 weighted on base percentage.
00:50That's not going to get it done here.
00:52But if you take a look at his home starts this year, he has, let me see, 50 and two-thirds
00:57innings pitch bend to a 3.02 ERA and an XFIP number of 3.80.
01:03If we take a look at the last 60 days for Mitch Keller here, and if we include both
01:08away starts and home starts, a .265 ERA and a 4.05 XFIP, which actually rises a little
01:14bit.
01:15The one thing that we do know is PNC Ballpark, that is a true pitcher's paradise there.
01:20We'll see if it holds up.
01:21Now, here's the issue once again, the Grimace Mets that we like to talk about over the past
01:2430 days.
01:25They've been wonderful at the plate.
01:26Now, they showed up yesterday, didn't hit their team total, but still ended up getting
01:29that win and helped me out quite a bit.
01:31You look at Lindor, Nimmo, Martinez, Alvarez, Vientos, Taylor, and also Bader, all above
01:37average against right-handed pitchers over the past 30 days.
01:40So I think the better overall lineup is probably coming in from a Mets perspective.
01:44Let's turn it over on the opposite side.
01:46Not a lot of great hitters in that Pittsburgh lineup, but Kuchin, Reynolds, and Rowdy Tellez,
01:50all elevated iso and weighted on base percentages against right-handed pitching over the past
01:5430 days.
01:55The problem is we don't have a lot to go off of over the past 30 days for Christian Scott.
01:59His iso power number through 24 batters, 182, that's elevated.
02:02A 346 weighted on base percentage, that's elevated here.
02:06So if you're just looking to trust that Mets lineup, I understand, but I envision this
02:09more like what we saw yesterday.
02:11Even though it's hot, it's humid, it's muggy, it's hitting conditions, I could see this
02:15game probably staying under the total here at that point.
02:18Keller's the better pitcher, obviously, because he's the veteran guy, but it's going to be
02:21interesting to see how that Mets lineup that has shown so well against right-handed pitching
02:24against Keller, who's been very good at home.
02:26That's an interesting concept here.