Frances Election Results Explained - Elecciones Francia 2024-
Elecciones Francia 2024
France recently went to the polls for the second round of the General Assembly elections, a critical event featuring key political figures like President Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen, Jordan Bardella, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The results were unexpected without a clear majority. This video looks at what this means for France and what is likely to happen next.
France recently went to the polls for the second round of the General Assembly elections, a critical event featuring key political figures like President Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen, Jordan Bardella, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon. The results were unexpected without a clear majority. This video looks at what this means for France and what is likely to happen next.
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00:00The French General Assembly election results for the second round are finally in and they
00:05are super unexpected.
00:06Le Pen's national rally did not win, nor did Macron's Ensemble.
00:11Instead the left-wing coalition emerged victorious, securing a plurality of seats.
00:16This surprising outcome marks a significant shift in the French political landscape and
00:21bears all kinds of consequences.
00:23Bear in mind though that these are not presidential elections, but parliamentary, meaning that
00:28Macron will stay until 2027 as planned.
00:31But before we dive into the final results and what they mean, let's do a super quick
00:36recap of how French General Assembly elections work.
00:39In France there are 577 constituencies and in each constituency one representative is
00:45elected to represent their constituency and party in the National Assembly.
00:50This means there are 577 seats in total and 289 seats are required for a majority.
00:57The election process involves a two-round system.
01:00In the first round, which took place last week on June the 30th, citizens voted for
01:04candidates and their respective parties in their constituency.
01:08There are two possible outcomes in the first round.
01:10Either a single candidate receives 50% or more of the vote, or none of the candidates
01:15reach this threshold.
01:17If a candidate receives 50% or more, they automatically become a member of the National
01:21Assembly, a result known as an absolute majority vote.
01:25In this case, there will be no second round.
01:28If no candidate achieves 50%, which is much more common, a second round is held on the
01:337th of July, where the top candidates face off.
01:36This example on the right illustrates what actually happened in this constituency last
01:41night.
01:42Three candidates qualified for the second round, however, one candidate withdrew their
01:46candidacy before the runoff.
01:48Consequently, the remaining two candidates competed, with one ultimately winning the
01:53seat.
01:54According to the first-round results from last week, only 76 out of the 577 constituencies
01:59had a single party winning by over 50%, thus determining the outcome in one round.
02:05The remaining constituencies required a second round to decide the winners.
02:09So finally, what are the results?
02:11In the first round, the following seats were allocated.
02:14Le Pen's right-wing populist National Rally and their allies, 38 seats.
02:19The broad left-wing alliance New Popular Front, also called NFP, 32 seats.
02:24Macron's centrist Ensemble, only 2 seats.
02:27And the right-wing Republicans, only 1 seat.
02:31Last week, it really seemed as though Le Pen was poised to take France by storm.
02:35However, what happened in round 2 last night?
02:38At the time of recording, the Republicans won an additional 44 seats, the National Rally
02:43won 105 seats, Macron's Ensemble won a surprising 166 seats and the New Popular Front won an
02:50additional 150 seats.
02:53Now if we add the first and second-round results, we get the following.
02:57And here it's clear.
02:58The left-wing alliance emerges as the clear winner and Macron in second place, which was
03:03rather unexpected.
03:05However, 289 seats are needed for a majority.
03:09And even the New Popular Front is not even close to meeting that target as they would
03:13need to have an additional 107 seats.
03:16This was unexpected, as polls before the election showed a National Rally in first place.
03:21But they ended up in third!
03:22The National Rally's party president, Jordan Bardella, slammed what he called the unnatural
03:28alliance between Macron and the leftists, to stop by all means National Rally's most
03:33important surge of its history.
03:35What he means is that if a National Rally candidate advanced to the second round along
03:39with two other candidates, the centrist and left-wing parties have strategically withdrawn
03:44their candidates in third place.
03:46This move was aimed at consolidating votes against the far-right candidate, thereby increasing
03:51the chances of defeating the National Rally candidate in the second round.
03:56They did this in over 200 constituencies.
03:59And let's be honest, it worked.
04:01But what does this mean though?
04:02At EU Made Simple, we see three ways forward.
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05:15So back to France.
05:17What do these results actually mean?
05:19Who will form a government?
05:20And who will be the prime minister?
05:22Well, as said, we see three ways forward.
05:24The first option is a coalition of moderates.
05:28Before the election, Macron and his allies floated the idea of building a broad coalition,
05:33including moderate lawmakers from both the left and the right, to counter the far-right
05:37influence.
05:38For example, Macron could try and bring together Ensemble, the Socialist Party, Greens, and
05:44some of the Republicans.
05:46However, given the highly polarized political landscape, forming such a coalition is difficult
05:52and could lead to a paralyzed legislature.
05:54Plus, Melenchon from the far-left France Unbowed has already stated in a victory speech that
06:00the NFP is not interested in a coalition with Macron's centrists or the right-wing Republicans.
06:06However, maybe some of the other parties within this coalition can be swayed.
06:10The second option is a NFP minority government.
06:14Given the new popular front's large share of seats, Macron may be forced to appoint
06:18one of their leaders as prime minister.
06:20But this already presents the very first problem.
06:23Who?
06:24So far, the coalition has not been able to put forward a person who could be the prime
06:28minister.
06:29The third option is a blocked parliament.
06:31With three large groups unable to agree, we could find ourselves with a blocked parliament,
06:36where any attempt at government faces a motion of no confidence.
06:40In other words, a majority disagrees and votes against it.
06:44French institutions would be paralyzed and no laws could be passed.
06:48This could be particularly difficult for civil servants if it results in the budget never
06:53being voted on.
06:54It is possible that this situation could even continue until the 2027 presidential elections.
07:00To get out of this impasse is the appointment of a technocrat government, comprising of
07:05ministers with no party affiliation, similar to the government led by Mario Draghi in Italy
07:10from 2021 to 2022.
07:13This approach aims to manage the country impartially and maintain stability until a more permanent
07:18solution is found.
07:19However, it is unlikely that a majority can be found for this solution.
07:24In more extreme cases, we could see constitutional reform or even an early presidential election,
07:29but these seem very unlikely.
07:31But we will address them in future videos if they become an option.
07:35French viewers and others, we would love to hear from you.
07:39Thank you to our contributor and thank you so much for watching.
07:42And remember to check out MyHeritage.
07:44Start your 14-day trial to journey into your family's past today.
07:48Find the link in the description.
07:49And if you want more election explainers, check out the UK election results here and
07:54its impact on the EU.
07:55Or check out the EU election results from last month here.
07:59Don't forget to like the video and subscribe to our channel and stay tuned for more videos
08:03like this.
08:04Until next time.