Membaca Peta Politik Jakarta, Siapa Cocok Jawaranya?, Pengamat: Satu Persatu Mulai Membuka Kartu
Membaca Peta Politik Jakarta, Siapa Cocok Jawaranya?, Pengamat: Satu Persatu Mulai Membuka Kartu
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00:00A number of figures appear to be involved in the election of the Governor of Jakarta.
00:03Then, how is the political map in the Jakarta Cabinet?
00:05And who is worthy to be nominated as a candidate for Governor of Jakarta?
00:09We will immediately ask the political observer.
00:13Mas Kherul Umam, good afternoon.
00:15Mas Umam.
00:16Good afternoon, Ms. Vita.
00:17Okay, Mas Umam, maybe first like this.
00:20We look at the battle map in Jakarta.
00:23What will it be like, Mas?
00:27Yes, so far, the battle map is still quite liquid.
00:30But one by one, it has started to open its card.
00:33For example, a few days ago, the PKS, as a party that became the champion in the election in 2024,
00:40affirmed that it would nominate Soehipul Ipman, the ex-president of the PKS.
00:46And it means, this is a political card that has been opened.
00:50At the same time, to open up the room for negotiation and compromise with other powers.
00:54Because in practice, today, there is not a single power and there is not a single power
00:59that has the golden ticket to make Poros a 20% power.
01:03The threshold in the nomination is good.
01:06Therefore, in the future, this will be a first step.
01:10Especially in the context of Anis's circle.
01:13Will Anis still try to negotiate with the PKS or not?
01:20Actually, the nomination of Soehipul Ipman did not include closing Anis's circle.
01:26Because no matter what, it can still be a tool for negotiation.
01:31Because today, the PKS itself does not have the experience of being an imam
01:36in the political competition coalition in Jakarta.
01:40Well, if there are still questions about who will be the leader of the PKS,
01:47who is ready with all the consequences of defeat, including the potential of victory,
01:52then if there are still questions, the PKS will still be forced to negotiate again.
01:59Perhaps, the name Soehipul Ipman will not be used as a dead weight for a good position.
02:05But it can also be used as a bait.
02:08When it becomes a bait, it can then be used as an opportunity for Anis to get in there.
02:15So it will be used by other coalitions, especially the Indonesia Forward Coalition.
02:19Okay, Mr. Umar.
02:20Why is it that the political parties have not yet decided who will be the leader?
02:28Does this mean that each political party has the highest call to nominate a cadre?
02:33Or is this a political strategy to say,
02:35okay, we'll announce it at the last minute.
02:37The card will be opened at the last minute.
02:39Which one is it?
02:41Well, it's the Mandalika strategy.
02:45So, the last maneuver will potentially happen on August 27th.
02:50But even though this day has not yet shown a significant basis of power,
02:57one of them is still trying to recalculate the context of the potential of victory,
03:03then calculate the loss in terms of politics.
03:06On the other hand, for example, the Indonesia Forward Coalition
03:10who won the last election,
03:12is certainly of great importance to maintain the basis of the DKI Jakarta leadership
03:16so that it remains under the control of the new government later, Prabowo-Gibran.
03:21Now, what becomes a challenge, for example,
03:23there are quite a few names that have been nominated,
03:27and one of the biggest names is Ridwan Kamil from the Golkar party.
03:31But the one who leads is Gerindra and also Pan.
03:35While Golkar himself is still trying to weigh.
03:38Now, Golkar's own consideration can certainly not be seen as a mess.
03:43But calculate precisely,
03:45what is the potential of the consolidation of the base of loyal voters in West Java?
03:50What are the other potentials that could be bypassed
03:54if RK is pulled in DKI Jakarta?
03:57Well, this is still being negotiated.
04:00And if, for example, Kim's future can remain solid,
04:04then the potential becomes a very powerful force
04:07to face one of them, Anies Baswedan.
04:10Okay, this answer can be short,
04:12later we will talk about each of the figures that have emerged in the stock market.
04:16If this is what we see, there are several names,
04:18for example, Ridwan Kamil's name, then Anies Baswedan,
04:20Kaisang Pangarep, and so on.
04:22Are these names later at the last minute,
04:25when the registration is in August later,
04:27will it really be carried out by the political party?
04:30Or is there a possibility that other names outside the names in this stock market can also be carried out?
04:35Which one, Mas Umar?
04:37There are other potential names that will be carried out.
04:39Because no matter what, if there are two powerful forces,
04:43then this will present a very extraordinary battle.
04:46So, for example, then to avoid that,
04:49including to ensure victory,
04:51then there is a potential that one of the forces will form the third force.
04:55We see the development.
04:57Which then makes it possible to form the third force.
05:00Today, what we can see,
05:03everything is still liquid.
05:05At the level of the trade coalition, it is still wet and sea.
05:08At the level of the Kim coalition itself,
05:11it seems that there is not a complete voice yet.
05:13Meanwhile, the PDIP, which has been holding the golden ticket,
05:16is still struggling to determine the direction forward.
05:19Well, forward, it can be proven or formed by two forces,
05:24but remember, because the voice is quite even in the DKI Jakarta,
05:28then the potential presence of the third force will be very potent.
05:33And that will determine the direction of victory,
05:35especially in the second round later.
05:37Yes, it means, Mas, the potential is great, right?
05:40Later, for the names that will be carried out by the political party in the Jakarta election,
05:44especially this, outside the names that have been in the stock market, right?
05:49The potential is very open.
05:52Okay, but like this, Mas.
05:54If the potential is open,
05:56is the psychology of this political party more dominant or tend to,
06:00well, let's just refer to the cadres of the internal party.
06:05Because we are talking about the effect of the party.
06:08Is that the psychology of the political party right now?
06:11Yes, the political party in the context of the presidential election,
06:14they tend to side with those who have greater potential for victory.
06:21And they will count it one by one,
06:23because no matter what,
06:25the victory in the presidential election this time will have an impact
06:28on the composition of political power in 2029 that will come.
06:32So this is still a wait-and-see, right?
06:35But still, there are clearly only two poros today.
06:39That is, the Poros of the Indonesia Forward Coalition,
06:41and Poros in the circle around ANIS,
06:43who are still trying to weigh whether this will be solid or not.
06:48But if later, there are still remaining political power particles
06:53that have not been represented,
06:55because the distribution of positions or political compensation is not even,
07:01then the potential of the third power will make it very possible.
07:05Okay, good.
07:06Later we will see together, Mas.
07:08For the coalition map, what will it look like?
07:11Will there be two or three poros, as Mas Umom said?
07:14Thank you very much, Mas Umom, for your time.
07:16Thank you.