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00:00Well, for more on the campaign, we can speak to Paul Smith, the head of the French and
00:03Francophone Studies department at the University of Nottingham.
00:06Paul, it's always a pleasure.
00:08Thank you so much for joining us.
00:09Now, we just saw that report on the surge in people who are voting by proxy.
00:13Do you think that we are headed for record turnout?
00:16And how might that impact the results?
00:18Well, it's two things.
00:21I mean, we talked about how people are going on holiday, so they'll want to have a proxy
00:25vote.
00:26It certainly seems to indicate that six times more people applying for a proxy vote is an
00:31extraordinary statistic.
00:33So it may well be, if one imagines, that the high rate of proxy votes is because people
00:39feel this is very important, that it might play against the national rally.
00:45Very difficult to know exactly who these people are going to be voting for, of course, through
00:50their proxy votes.
00:51But my mother-in-law has sorted out her proxy vote because she won't be able to vote next
00:54Sunday.
00:56We've kind of got skin in the game, as it were.
00:58So I think that it would probably mean that it's kind of an opposition vote to the national
01:05rally.
01:06I'm also voting for someone else by proxy, so skin in the game as well.
01:09Now, after last week that was dominated by alliances, this week saw various political
01:14factions unveiling their programs.
01:17What stood out to you, perhaps from the national rally in particular?
01:20There were quite a few surprises there.
01:23Yes, I think above all, there's been a kind of rowing back from the more radical, the
01:28more standout aspects of their policies, commitments to pensions reform have kind of gone back
01:37from that.
01:39There was the big meeting during the week on Wednesday or Thursday, what they call the
01:43Gondorral, a meeting with the bosses, the employers' associations, to talk about their
01:49plans, all of the parties to talk about their plans for the French economy.
01:54And that certainly has kind of led to, in some ways, a kind of watering down of particularly
02:00national rally policies, not so much the left, the LFI, the sorry, the New Popular Front
02:07have made a very clear program and said, this is what we want to do.
02:10And they actually use, very interestingly, they use the word patriot, you know, that
02:15patriotic employers should think about adhering to their program.
02:21So a lot of jockeying for position over the economy this week.
02:24I'm not sure that that's going to pay off for the parties very much.
02:28I'm not sure that this is fully about the economy, but it's been interesting to see
02:32how they've all been moving around that particular issue and, of course, the risk of instability
02:38after the election.
02:39And can you maybe just be a little bit more specific about, you know, kind of what particular
02:42changes the national rally made that were notable?
02:45Sure.
02:46Their commitment to reversing the pension reform, for example, but also some of their
02:52other policies in terms of unemployment insurance, because there's been a great deal of uncertainty
03:02about things like interest rates and mortgage offers and so forth.
03:06You know, these are very, these are micro issues, but they're having an impact on individual
03:12people.
03:13So, you know, people who are on the on the cusp of buying, buying houses are beginning
03:18to get a bit nervous because banks are looking a bit jittery as well.
03:21So it's it's kind of it's kind of beholden upon the National to to do that, to kind of
03:26say, well, we're not going to we're not going to start tearing up the the whole fabric.
03:32But at the same time, I think they're playing a game of preparing their own electors for
03:37frustration as well.
03:39I think that that's part of the game that they're playing.
03:42National rally leader Jordan Bardella also said this week that he'd only accept the post
03:46of prime minister if his party won an absolute majority.
03:50What do you make of that?
03:51Do you think maybe he doesn't really want the job?
03:53No, he wants the job, but this is his master's voice.
03:56There was a very interesting interview in Le Monde with Marine Le Pen, and she she basically
04:02said exactly the same thing, that the the national rally would only want to be would
04:07only want the prime ministership if they've got an absolute majority, because otherwise
04:12she's she explains it this way, that there would almost immediately be a vote of no confidence.
04:17The government would be unable to rule.
04:18There wouldn't be any legislative program.
04:20And then we'd be from her perspective, they'd be back to square square one.
04:25I think also that there's kind of again, this is part of the process that I call sort of
04:30preparing their electors for for frustration.
04:33This is part of the strategy of the far right to kind of look at how institutions look.
04:38We're the biggest party, and yet the existing institutions, the system prevents us from
04:44governing properly.
04:45So that's kind of the that's you know, it's a bit like Liz Truss in this country saying
04:50that her economic policies failed because of the left wing financial establishment,
04:54whatever that is.
04:55And that's that's part of the policy.
04:57The strategy is to is to prepare their supporters for for frustration.
05:03And just briefly, Paul, Emmanuel Macron and his allies have continued to make this argument
05:07that they're the only alternative to the two extremes basically equating the far right
05:11and the left.
05:12Do you think that strategy is still effective for them?
05:15It doesn't seem to be working terribly well, although there is some kind of there has been
05:19a little bit of a surge in support for Macron.
05:22I saw one opinion poll that suggested that the the presidential parties between them
05:28are now back up to about 22 percent.
05:30I mean, they're still way behind the the new popular front and way behind the national
05:34rally.
05:35But there is there has been something of of a recovery, but it doesn't seem to be a terribly
05:41effective strategy, although having said that, you know, today, Edouard Philippe, the former
05:45prime minister, who, of course, has distanced himself from Macron this week or over the
05:50last couple of days, has also talked about the importance of presenting the the center
05:55block, as it were, as being the the block for stability and the block for taking taking
06:00France forward in a measured and intelligent way.
06:04But at the moment, it's still leaving the that center block quite a long way behind
06:11the the far left and the far right, the left block and the far right.
06:15All right, Paul, thank you so much again.
06:18Always good to have your thoughts.
06:19We're going to have to leave it there.
06:20That's Paul Smith, the head of the French and Francophone Studies Department at the
06:24University of Nottingham.