Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
Category
đź—ž
NewsTranscript
00:00Clovis Casale, thank you for that. And joining me now is Renard Foucault, a French politics
00:05specialist from Lancaster University in the UK. Renaud, thank you very much. You're going
00:11to be with us in the course of the next 20 minutes or so. So let me start with asking
00:16you this. An estimated 12 million people voted for the national rally. This itself has dramatically
00:23reshaped the country's political landscape, hasn't it?
00:28Yes, I think this is completely unprecedented because the high scores of the far right have
00:33always been at the same time with a record abstention. So there was this idea that the
00:38far right does well because people stay at home, they don't want to hear about politics.
00:42But this time, every party, the far right, the left, but even Emmanuel Macron's party
00:47got more votes than in the last legislative election. So this is a big moment in which
00:52millions and millions of people voted for the far right. And if you look at the details,
00:55they've largely replaced the voters of the right. So the far right, as the sum of the
00:59far right and of Les RĂ©publicains, is not particularly surprisingly high. What is very
01:03high is that they've been for the original party of anti-immigration and not for the
01:09conservative Les RĂ©publicains or the right of Macron.
01:12What do you think is the appeal of the RN to French voters, particularly young people?
01:18Well, I guess, as usual, there is the idea of, oh, we haven't tried that before, we are
01:23angry, et cetera. I think there is, to me, something that happens since Sarkozy, slowly
01:28and slowly, is that centre-right and right-wing parties have been very much following the
01:33themes of the far right on migration, security, secularism, you know, obsessing about the
01:38length of the dresses of girls in school. Those kind of things have really maybe given
01:43the willingness of voters to look at the original and not at the copy. This is something that
01:47happens in the UK with Sunak and Farage. This is something that happens in Germany with
01:51the CDU and AfD. The idea that if you follow the theme of the far right, the far right
01:55is not scary anymore.
01:57And as a result, France is in uncharted waters right now. But clearly, the focus is on other
02:04parties working very hard to block the RN from obtaining power in the National Assembly.
02:10For the viewers living outside of France, can you explain what that actually means?
02:14Yes. So what is important is that, as opposed to the presidential election in France, when
02:19there is the runoff, there can be more than two candidates. And in this case, because
02:23participation has been so high, there are often three candidates running for one job
02:28of MP. Traditionally in France, there has been something called the Front RĂ©publicain,
02:33meaning that if you are in the third place, you remove yourself from the competition and
02:37you call to vote for the best place democratic candidate against the far right. This time,
02:42the left has been very quick to say they would do that. This was not as obvious in 2022.
02:47Gabriel Attal, the prime minister, has been very clear also that he wants his candidate
02:51to withdraw. But on the right of the centre, former prime minister like Édouard Philippe,
02:57François Bayrou, former head of the centre, they've been much, much, much less direct.
03:01And they're actually calling for neither the left nor the far right. I mean, neither the
03:05far left nor the far right, meaning that this time there may be a lot of three-way contest.
03:10And in that case, Rassemblement National might do much better than if it's facing only one
03:14candidate.
03:15Renaud, stay with us because we are now going to take a look at the second party that did very
03:21well or came in second rather to the RN, and that, of course, is the New Popular Front. And Jenny
03:27Shin explains how the French left went from the New Ecological and Social Popular Union,
03:33known by the acronym NUPEZ, to what is now known as the New Popular Front in this election.
03:38Ahead of the French parliamentary elections in 2022, a new left-wing alliance was formed by the
03:44radical left France Unbowed, led by Jean-Luc MĂ©lenchon. The New Ecological and Social
03:49Popular Union, going by the French acronym NUPEZ, choralled together an alliance of France's
03:55progressive forces, the socialists, greens, communists and France Unbowed. It positioned
04:01itself as the main challenger to President Emmanuel Macron and as reform-centred and
04:06business-friendly policies. But MĂ©lenchon's polarising character and the party's policy
04:11differences, notably over the conflict in the Middle East, triggered its de facto collapse.
04:16Fast forward to 2024. Confronted with the far-right's historic gains in the European
04:21elections, it took the left only four days to reach a similar agreement. The same four
04:26parties decided to join forces once again, this time running under the rebranded banner
04:31the Nouveau Front Populaire, the New Popular Front. Its aim is loud and clear, to stop the
04:39far-right national rally from coming into power and challenge the Macronist centre.
04:46I think everyone here today acknowledges the history of what we're experiencing,
04:49and in particular the urgency. We're facing an extremely worrying political situation,
04:55fraught with danger, with the threat of the far-right coming to power.
04:58That's what we've come to talk about today.
05:02Like Noupez, the New Popular Front grounds itself in the principles that MĂ©lenchon champions,
05:07and positions itself as a voice of unity on the left. Its manifesto outlines its plans for a
05:12policy overhaul, including price freezes on basic necessities, the repeal of the increase in the
05:18retirement age to 64, the repeal of Macron's immigration law, and on an international level,
05:24a call for the immediate recognition of Palestinian statehood.
05:29I'm going to go back to Renaud Foucault, a French politics specialist from Lancaster
05:34University in the UK. Renaud, the New Popular Front is an alliance of left-wing parties,
05:40including Jean-Luc MĂ©lenchon's France Unbowed Party. Last night, MĂ©lenchon clearly said that
05:46any left-wing candidate will bow out if they have no chance of winning.
05:51Is that strategy actually going to work?
05:54I think this is a very clear strategy, in the sense that the message of the new left
06:00coalition was to say, we are here to block the Rassemblement National. This is as clear as it
06:05gets. And I think this sends a message to the voter that they are forming an alternative. So
06:10they all hate each other. They don't agree on a lot of things within the left. But there is
06:14this sense of urgency that Emmanuel Macron, in the past, by creating this very white centre,
06:20has only created the possibility of extreme alternatives. Here, they want to present
06:25themselves as, we're giving you the choice. And also, there is this sense of urgency that
06:28if the Rassemblement National gets to power, it's an autocratic party, like in Hungary,
06:33like in Poland, like in Turkey, like in Donald Trump's United States. It's not clear when you
06:37give the key of power to those people if you get a chance to compete again in the next election.
06:41So there is this idea for this time, we withdraw our candidate, we support anyone in the centre,
06:46but this will only work if the centre does the same. And this is halfway good. I think Gabriel
06:52Attal has been very clear, but not everyone is on the same line. And that will make the difference
06:56between a majority for Rassemblement National or a plurality of votes.
07:00The reality is, and you talked about the fact that not everybody gets on in this particular
07:05alliance, Melenchon himself is a divisive figure. But given what is at stake, do you think the
07:12alliance will be able to hold it together in order to block the far right from taking power
07:17next weekend? I think at the moment is the most likely scenario. If you look at the stock market
07:24this morning, they seem to have a little bit of relief in financial markets that okay, a hung
07:28parliament is actually the best thing that could happen, not necessarily for France, but for Europe,
07:32because it means you will not stop supporting Ukraine, you will not stop any moves of European
07:37integration or financial support. You will not have some other countries trying to challenge
07:42the independence of the European Central Bank, that kind of thing. So I think, yes, the left
07:47will go, I think, into a hung parliament, and then they will start, of course, disagreeing
07:52among themselves on another thing. And we'll start a recomposition of the French politics,
07:58unless, of course, Rassemblement National wins. And that's a completely different world that opens
08:02to us. Renaud Foucault, do stay with us, because now let's turn our attention to President Emmanuel
08:08Macron, who, of course, called this snap election after his party was challenged by the national
08:14rally in the European elections last month. But as Delano de Souza explains now, it was a gamble
08:19that didn't pay off. He launched a political movement that turned French politics on its head.
08:29En Marche was a starting point for an ambitious quest by Emmanuel Macron to secure the presidency.
08:37Firmly in the centre but taking on policies from both the right and left,
08:42it resulted in the two traditional parties kept out of the second round of the presidential vote
08:47in 2017, for the first time in nearly 60 years. Banker, presidential aide, finance minister and
08:54then president at age 39. Emmanuel Macron's entire time in office has been spent with the
09:00threat of a far-right surge looming. From the Yellow Vest movement to protests over pension
09:05reform, the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, Macron has grappled with a series of
09:11crises. In 2022, he did what his two predecessors were unable to and secured a second term as
09:19president after appealing to voters on the left. I also know that many people voted for me,
09:29not because of my policies, but to keep the far right out.
09:36Weeks later, Macron suffered his first setback in his second term.
09:40His party failed to secure a majority in parliament. It's made pushing through
09:45reforms like raising the retirement age to 64 more cumbersome, leaving the president with
09:50little choice but to use special powers to bypass parliament. Neoliberal economic policies and a
09:56number of gaffes over the years have earned Macron the nickname Jupiter, often viewed as
10:01someone who's simply out of touch. You can go across the street and you'll find a job.
10:09EU parliamentary elections in June were the most recent gauge of Macron's popularity.
10:14Following its outcome, the president caused a political storm when he dissolved parliament,
10:19a risky move which is likely to see Macron left with his hands tied for the rest of his term
10:25and his party struggling to survive.
10:30Joining me now from Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance party headquarters is France 24's Peter O'Brien.
10:35Peter, we've been talking there with our guests about the conflicting messages from the centrist
10:40bloc about how people should vote to keep out the national rally next weekend, with Macron and
10:46Edouard Philippe saying neither far left or far right. What have people been saying at the HQ?
10:56Well, the message has been confusing. There's 300 three-way races come Sunday and up until
11:05today even, there didn't seem to be much clarity on what the Renaissance party was telling people
11:11to vote for and what they were telling their candidates to do. I just spoke to a team member
11:17of Gabriel Attal, the prime minister, who's meant to be holding a big online video conference with
11:24all of the candidates, having just met with the other ministers and with Emmanuel Macron at the
11:29Elysée earlier, and they seem to have now finally devised a clear strategy, which is if you are
11:37third placed as a candidate and the Rassemblement National, the far right, is likely to win,
11:45drop out the race and make sure the other candidates get as many votes as possible.
11:49Now, there is an asterisk to this. They're saying that in some cherry-picked scenarios, in some of
11:55the seats, we're actually not going to say that. We're going to determine that the far left
12:00candidate, the one belonging to LFE, might be just as dangerous as the far right one. And in that case,
12:07they won't be dropping out of these three-way races. But as you can see, it's still pretty
12:11confusing to explain. And even after Gabriel Attal made his address to the public after the vote
12:18was announced, the results came in last night. And as you say, we heard from other big figures
12:26in what was until now the presidential majority having different ideas about what to do.
12:33I'm not sure it's going to convince voters to necessarily follow along with what they're saying,
12:39because we know how much Macron's camp still does not like the far left. We know how much the far
12:44left does not like Macron's camp. So, Sunday is still very much up in the air.
12:50And given what you've been saying and their appalling result this weekend,
12:55what indeed is the mood like among people at the headquarters?
13:02What's the what? Sorry, say that again.
13:03I'm sorry, Peter. I'm just saying, what is the mood like among people there at the party
13:09headquarters?
13:11Yeah. So, as we were saying last night, when we were following the coverage, there was confusion,
13:15because we were expecting some sort of soirée electorale, some sort of at least acknowledgement
13:21of the results coming in here. We had our journalists here, and actually, it turns out
13:26they weren't here at all, any of the candidates or the party members. And instead, Gabriel Attal
13:33decides to do this address at Matignon. So, I think the idea there was to give a sort of
13:40solemn sense of the state still being in control, and Emmanuel Macron still having a say.
13:48But actually, if you look at all the divisions that have been in this centrist bloc,
13:52and this disastrous decision that he made to call this snap election,
13:56it's very much posturing and a bit of a facade doing this kind of thing at the Matignon Palace,
14:02when we know that in reality, Macron is likely no longer going to be calling the shots
14:09come Sunday. It will either be the far right in power, or it'll be a hung parliament. So,
14:14he's shot himself in the foot, and he's taken out a shotgun and blasted the other one off
14:18while he's at it.
14:19Peter O'Brien, reporting there from the Renaissance party headquarters. Thank you.
14:24Now, listening to all that is Renaud Foucard, a French politics specialist from Lancaster
14:29University, I have to ask you, is Emmanuel Macron a spent force? And given that there's
14:36clearly going to be a messy outcome next Sunday, how is he going to govern if he has to work with
14:41either a far right prime minister or the other alternative, a hung parliament?
14:47Well, a far right prime minister, somehow there is a history of cohabitation in France.
14:52There is a relatively clear, it's not perfectly clear, but definition of the power between
14:57the president and the prime minister. So, they will be disagreeing on, for instance,
15:01who can nominate a European commissioner or a thing like that. But the view of what happens
15:06is relatively clear. It would be the far right preparing for the presidential election
15:10and trying to Georgia Melonise itself, showing that they are respectable.
15:14Now, with a hung parliament, this is completely uncharted territory. We don't know what happens,
15:19because it will largely depend on whether people are willing to do what they failed to do since
15:24the previous parliamentary election, which is to build alliances. All those people will be in
15:29power, centrists in parliament, sorry, centrist or left wing, will be there because of the support of
15:35each other against the Rassemblement National. So, there might be case for some technocratic
15:40government, some outsider being in charge of government that rules the country, because Macron
15:45has one year in which he's not allowed to dissolve parliament again. So, whatever happens,
15:50there will need to be a role for some form of majority to pass law and to make the country
15:56simply function for one year in case of a hung parliament. But let me just ask that question
16:01again. Is Emmanuel Macron a spent force, therefore? I think Emmanuel Macron sees himself as still
16:09pulling a lot of strings, and you don't even know what he wanted to achieve in the first place.
16:14In a way, if you take Emmanuel Macron, he's been elected and re-elected in the only election he
16:20ran for. He never lost an election. He wanted to reform France economically. He's been rather
16:28successful at changing France the way he wanted to change it. He wanted to play a leadership role
16:32in Europe. He played a very important role in Europe. Somehow, you may think that for him,
16:37towards the end of his job, he might have some idea in mind of how to transition. I have no
16:42idea what he wants to do. So, I cannot answer your question.
16:46But the conservative Republicans in the meantime, Les Republicains rather,
16:50which split ahead of the vote with a small number of its MPs joining forces with the far right,
16:57they themselves have given no guidance as to how their supporters should vote. So,
17:03what do you think is going to happen to the party, and do you think they're going to issue
17:07any guidance as such? Some people from Les
17:11RĂ©publicains have left for the far right, and I think a lot of them were just waiting for the
17:14outcome. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of people on the conservative right are now applying
17:20for jobs in a possible Rassemblement Nationale administration, because the far right have
17:26absolutely no experience of power. Even Jordan Bardella is a 28-year-old. It would be his first
17:31job to be Prime Minister of France. There would be a big, big need for responsible people. I could
17:37totally imagine people from Les RĂ©publicains claiming, OK, we disagree with the far right,
17:41but we want to make the country work. But not everyone will agree with that. So, there will be
17:45no clear message from Les RĂ©publicains. There will be some people who will be pushing towards
17:50the far right. I think the main right-wing newspaper, Le Figaro, has roughly called to
17:55support the far right in the second round. But I think most of them will have a wait-and-see
17:59attitude and saying, no left, no right. We are the only ones who believe in the Republic.
18:04Finally, Renaud, a question perhaps a little bit down the future. If indeed we do have a
18:09hung parliament and all the energy is being funnelled into coalition alliance building,
18:16what does that say about the running of the government, about the country itself? What
18:21impact is that going to have? I think at the moment, given the
18:25difficulty to pass a budget, the size of the public debt, the need to invest in the energy
18:29transition, all the discussion to have at the European level, this means huge weaknesses. Unless
18:36some outside personality comes up to have some form of legitimacy and rule the country,
18:42you can expect the role, the soft power of France on the international stage to weaken
18:47and the country to just leave month after month. No, this is not in itself a catastrophe. And I
18:53think, again, the market reaction this morning shows that for investors, it might still be a
18:58better outcome than to give the power to the far right or indeed to the far left.
19:03Renaud Foucault, thank you so much again for your excellent analysis. That's Renaud Foucault,
19:08a French politics specialist from Lancaster University in the UK.