Escalation into all-out war will produce 'insecurity, economic consequences for Israel and Lebanon'
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00:00Well, Israel and Lebanon's militant group, Hezbollah, have exchanged near daily fires
00:04since the war in Gaza began almost nine months ago. And again, fresh cross-border fire reported.
00:10This week, though, saw fewer missiles fired, but an increase of threats from both sides,
00:14raising fears once more that the war could turn into a broader regional conflict. Meanwhile,
00:20the U.S. voiced concern about Israel's Iron Dome's capacity to stop Hezbollah's many
00:25precision missiles. Shirley Sitbon has more.
00:32There has been daily cross-border fire between Israel and Hezbollah,
00:36like here in Odessa, Lebanon, intense pressure and many threats. These images showing
00:43residential homes and sensitive sites in Haifa, the largest city and port in the north of Israel,
00:50were filmed by Hezbollah with at least one UAV. Meanwhile, Israel released more
00:56footage of its forces hitting Hezbollah targets. World powers have tried to settle the unrest
01:04through diplomacy to avert an all-out war and a regional escalation. After Israel's
01:09defense minister said the army is achieving readiness, U.S. officials warned Israel's Iron
01:16Dome air defense system may not be able to cope with Hezbollah's missiles and drones.
01:21The armed group has stockpiled large numbers of Iranian precision-guided missiles and munitions.
01:28This means a lot of hits. Iron Dome will not be able to cover everything.
01:34We may be cut off electricity, cut off internet.
01:37A senior U.S. administration official has told CNN they assess that at least some Iron Dome
01:44batteries will be overwhelmed. Washington says it's pushing an agreement that would bring both
01:51a ceasefire in Gaza and on the Lebanese border. Well, for more, let's speak to Filippo Dionigi,
01:58a senior lecturer of politics and international relations at the University of Bristol. Hello to
02:04Filippo. Thank you for speaking to us. Do you share Washington's assessment that the Iron Dome
02:09might be insufficient to meet Hezbollah's capacity? Well, if they say so, that's probably
02:17because they mean it. The reality is that the Iron Dome also in the past has shown that it
02:22has a saturation limit and it has only a degree of capacity to, in fact, respond and react to the
02:30threats to which it's subjected, not only from Lebanon, but also from other potential sources
02:37of threats, including Iraq, for example, we saw. And that means that, yes, there is a possibility
02:43that the Iron Dome may not be sufficient to guarantee the security that Israel is looking for.
02:50We also saw that recently Hezbollah has released a video that was allegedly recorded with a UAV
02:59flying over northern Israel and doing so undisturbed without, you know, being targeted
03:06or taken down from the Israeli military. And that is also another signal that in reality,
03:12Israel might be more vulnerable to Hezbollah's threats than it believes it is. And the situation
03:20may be more dangerous than they expect it to be. Yeah, Hezbollah calling that flying drone a
03:24psychological warfare. For months, we've heard from Hezbollah issuing these threats since the
03:30war began in Gaza almost nine months ago. We've been talking about fears of a broader conflict.
03:36What struck you about their actions this week that stood out from those previous months?
03:41I think we witnessed an increase in the level of threats that have been issued towards Israel on
03:51both sides in reality. What we notice is that there is a constant qualitative change of the
03:57type of weaponry that they show and that they demonstrate have been capable to use against
04:03Israel. They also show a higher degree of intelligence and knowledge of the ground,
04:08as we saw from the video that was shared by Hezbollah, as we were saying a minute ago.
04:14And therefore, you know, the reality is that they are making a show of their military capacity.
04:20We still don't know exactly the depth of that military capacity in reality,
04:27but we increasingly learn about it. And that is, you know, that has two meanings. On one hand,
04:33it means issuing threats against Israel, but on the other hand is also trying to increase
04:39the credibility of their deterrence capacity against Israeli attacks. Let us remember that
04:45one of the key concepts that Hezbollah's secretary general often mentions in its speeches
04:50is the so-called deterrence equation. That is the capacity of the two sides to deter each other
04:56and therefore to refrain from fighting each other into an all-out war and instead trying to balance
05:02each other and maintain a degree of stability at least on the border between Lebanon and Israel.
05:08What does that mean on the ground? U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told these Israeli
05:12officials to avoid escalation. Where is the line between deterrence and escalation?
05:18Well, it's hard to say. It's a tricky balance. Right now, what we're witnessing is
05:24a constant exchange and a constant level of threats going up. I think what could really
05:29make a difference is, for example, Israel targeting some very high profile members
05:35or as they did already before. But again, also that may not necessarily be what will cause
05:42a war. What perhaps is going to be really cause of difference is perhaps the beginning of operations
05:48on the ground, such as with a ground invasion on both sides. Those are kind of red lines that
05:55will trigger a greater reaction at that level. But also from the latest speech of Nasrallah,
06:00we saw that Nasrallah himself has said that if a ceasefire is established and accepted in Gaza,
06:08Hezbollah will seize hostilities against Israel, at least for the time being. And that opens a
06:13possibility for greater security also on that front. Yeah. And let's just play devil's advocate
06:18and say that the mediators aren't able to reach a ceasefire agreement. Where does this leave the
06:23Lebanese people? They're in full-blown economic crisis. How do they feel about a possible new
06:31front of this war? Well, in general, I don't think no one welcomes this war, neither the Lebanese
06:37people nor the Israelis, in fact. I mean, the reality is that the escalation of this war to
06:42an all-out war itself will produce insecurity and further economic consequences for Israel and
06:49Lebanon. Israel is obviously in a better economic situation to deal with such occurrence, but
06:54obviously wouldn't be happy about this, of course. And Lebanon will be devastated. Of course, as you
06:59said, Lebanon, since 2019 at least, is basically bankrupt. It wasn't capable of paying for its
07:09public debt any longer at that point. And therefore, an all-out war with Israel would
07:15further exacerbate what is already a disastrous economic situation, unfortunately.
07:20Filippo, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah also threatened nearby EU member Cyprus if it opened
07:25its airports or bases to Israel. How should the bloc respond? I think we need to read
07:35the situation with due attention. I think, obviously, Nasrallah's words were aggressive
07:42and concerning, of course. But it was also a way to say, stay out of this conflict because otherwise
07:50you will become part of it and therefore you'll be dragged into it. I think Cyprus should act in
07:56its best interest in this sense. And possibly its best interest is that of remaining relatively
08:01neutral with regard to this conflict. Lebanon is one of the major, if not the major, economic
08:10partner for Cyprus. And Lebanon also on its own side has excellent relations with Cyprus itself,
08:16their neighboring countries. Therefore, opening another front between those two countries will
08:22be against the interests of both countries. So my sense is that the response should be firm,
08:27but should also be very much prioritizing political and diplomatic negotiations over
08:33an unnecessary display of force. Filippo, thank you very much for your time. Filippo
08:37from the University of Bristol.