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00:00Let's get some more analysis. We can speak now to Dr. Anna Makeeva who is a
00:03lecturer in political science at the University of West Scotland
00:06who joins us now from Glasgow. Thank you very much indeed for joining us.
00:09I just want to ask your opinion. I mean you've been watching this campaign I
00:12imagine shaping up from there in Scotland. I mean what's
00:15your what's your view at this stage as to how things are proceeding?
00:20Thank you for having me. So at this stage you can see that it's true indeed that
00:24the national rally is set to get the biggest number of seats in the
00:29National Assembly. So they're currently at about 33 percent
00:34and they are estimated to get between 235
00:38and 259 seats. So yeah they'll they're set to travel their
00:43share of seats in the National Assembly but it's unlikely that they will get the
00:47overall majority of 289 seats.
00:51And then we're seeing of course the popular the National Front, the
00:56coalition of left-wing parties, the new
01:02the New Front Populaire. So they are set to get
01:05about 30 percent of the seats. So they are likely to come second. And then the
01:11Macron's Ensemble, so that's the coalition of
01:16centrist and right-wing parties, are set to get about 18-19 percent. So
01:22they are set to lose the election. Of course the Republicans
01:25who are currently torn and have a lot of internal
01:29rivalries are set to get about five to seven percent. So they're unlikely
01:33you know to improve their scores. If anything the Assemblement National
01:37is going to be the biggest player in the National Assembly in the
01:42upcoming election even if they're not going to get the
01:45overall majority as currently predicted.
01:49Yeah I mean all the experts, the political pundits said when President
01:53Macron announced this election, what was it 10 days ago or so, I mean
01:57it was a huge political gamble. And it's really
02:01looking, if you look at the poll numbers and what you just told us, like Macron's
02:04gamble is not paying off. Is there any way he can
02:07turn this around between now and the 30th of June or indeed the 7th
02:12of July if he even gets into the second round?
02:16Yeah so the European elections that just happened on the 9th of June
02:22showed that the Assemblement National managed to mobilize their electorate
02:27massively. So what Macron has to do now in order
02:30to get or at least retain the seats that he
02:34has in the National Assembly is to mobilize the electorate because a
02:38lot will depend on how Macron's electorate is going to be
02:41mobilized and the left-wing electorate is going to be mobilized
02:44because we are seeing currently the higher levels of political absenteeism
02:50when it comes to elections. But according to the polls
02:53that are coming from the Institute of French Public Opinion, we're
02:57actually projected to see the increase of political participation for this
03:00legislative election. So in the last election in 2022, we're
03:05seeing the massive rates of abstentions. So it was only
03:0847.5 percent of voter turnout and now is set to
03:12increase to 63 percent. So what is
03:16important for the left-wing and for the center-right parties and the center
03:20parties to do is to mobilize their electorate. In that
03:23way they might be able to neutralize some of the support that is coming to
03:28the national rally. But Macron is currently
03:31losing his electorate both to the left parties
03:35and to the radical right national rally as well.
03:39So it's really important to see how the campaign will unfold
03:43and whether they'll be able to mobilize their electorate.
03:47While you've been talking, we've been looking at pictures of
03:50Gabriel Attal, the Prime Minister, campaigning and he cuts quite a lonely
03:54figure, doesn't he? It seems like President Macron has
03:57almost become a handicap for him as he tries to
04:01campaign and win centrist votes. Lots of emphasis on the
04:05economy today. We heard from Jordan Bardella at
04:08Medef, for example. We've also heard from the left-wing
04:12talking about the economy as well and President Macron saying
04:15both the left and the right are going to be irresponsible when it comes to
04:19the French economy. What do you think France's international
04:23business partners and France's international allies
04:26would like to see happen during these two rounds of voting?
04:32So yeah, recently we've seen Emmanuel Macron attacking both the
04:38and also the National's economic campaign. So he's trying to
04:44neutralize them. But essentially he has been a weak
04:47president and he has a working majority in the National
04:51Assembly but he doesn't have an overall, his party
04:54doesn't have an overall majority right now. So what has happened is that
05:00over the last few years he has passed legislation resorting to the article 49.3
05:05of the French constitution which allows him to pass legislation without
05:09actually the vote in the National Assembly. So while he is trying to attack
05:14left-wing and radical right camp, essentially he's seen as the weak
05:19president in terms of economically. His pension
05:22reforms aren't popular. What's currently been happening is that
05:27he has been passing the legislation without the vote
05:30a number of times. So I think what the international partners
05:35would like to see is probably not the rise of the National
05:41Rally because again National Rally has never been in
05:44power and as a populist radical right party
05:48it's always easy for them to make promises. But what are the actual
05:52mechanisms that they're going to use in order to increase
05:55purchasing power? Because purchasing power has been one of the key issues in
05:59this electoral campaign in addition to immigration and other
06:02issues. So more likely that
06:07foreign colleagues and other governments
06:10would like to see more moderate government in France and
06:16again, in case Rassemblement National wins
06:21the majority of the seats, not the overall majority,
06:24they will then need to think about what are the actual
06:29mechanisms that they're going to use in order to achieve their
06:34electoral promises. Because it's always easier when you're not an incumbent.
06:37Incumbent usually tend to score much worse because they've been in power
06:42and it's not easy to translate electoral promises
06:45in five years into actual policies and into legislation. So it's interesting
06:52to see how, in case National Rally gets the
06:56biggest share of seats, how they're going to pursue their strategy and whether
07:00they'll be able to achieve that, whether they'll be
07:02able to get support from other parties on the right in
07:06order to push their economic agenda. Okay, well thank you very much. We're
07:10going to have to leave it there. Dr Anna McIver at the University of West Scotland.
07:13Thank you very much for taking the time to speak to us.