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00:00Fanduel's Tom Vecchio is known as many things. The man that consistently provides the Monday
00:08prop perspective here on the early line. The jack of all trades, because he's going to have a thought
00:14and a bet on the hardwood in the NBA throughout the entirety of the regular season. On the ice
00:19in the National Hockey League, football during that time of year, and the home run prop king
00:24in Major League Baseball. And Vecchio, we got oh so close from having just a focus on a Monday MLB
00:32card before the weekend got started. But the Mavericks prevail in game number four to give
00:37us a game five tonight in the NBA finals. And the Oilers blow past the Panthers on Saturday to force
00:44a game five in the Stanley Cup final as well. So the jack of all trades at least is alive for just
00:52a few more days. Yeah thanks for having me. We are winding down to that time of year where it's just
00:58going to be baseball will be at that point projecting forward for football. But a few
01:03more games in both the NBA and the NHL. Let's roll. Let's roll into game five tonight in Beantown
01:10of the 2024 NBA finals. The Celtics back home. One win away from championship 18. The Mavericks
01:16trying to get back home as well and force a game number six. Six and a half points spread in favor
01:22of the Celtics. Total now at 209 and a hook. Vecchio, what are the numbers telling you about how game five
01:29is expected to play out? I think we're getting a little bit more respect for the Mavericks just
01:35based on you know where they are at six and a half. That number would have been a little bit bigger
01:39or was a little bigger earlier in the series. You know tonight's game I think is all about the under.
01:43I think teams are going to play. Both teams are going to play things super tight. Wouldn't be
01:47surprised to see a lot of turnovers, a lot of missed shots. I think taking unders is you know
01:51across the board is the best way to go for most props overall. I will say there's one area that I
01:55think there's a clear exploit in the market. Let's say you're interested in the Mavericks money line
01:59which is at plus 220. Right let's just say someone out there is interested in the money line.
02:03If they win tonight that means the series is guaranteed to go at least six games. Six game
02:08series prices at plus 550. So I'm not sitting here saying I love the Mavericks money line tonight but
02:13in theory if they win the series has to go at least six game which is at plus 550 which is so
02:17much bigger than plus 220. So keep that in mind. There's still some exploits to take advantage of
02:21in the market if you think the series gets extended. Absolutely. Let's take a look at some
02:26of those Celtics game five player props here on their home court. Jason Tatum 27 and a half points
02:30listed here at the FanDuel Sportsbook. Jaylen Brown 24 and a half listed but outside of that
02:34or if you want to include those two. Who are we looking at tonight from a prop perspective for
02:37the Boston Celtics. I'm going to Tatum over nine and a half rebounds that's sitting at minus 120.
02:42And you know what we saw in the last game we have to kind of throw out just because everyone across
02:48the board played far less minutes. Tatum played 27 minutes when he's up at 42 and 45 minutes
02:52than previous games. Like we have to basically throw out what he did in the most recent game
02:56seeing 11 nine and six rebounds in the first three. That's a little bit more comfortable
02:59what I'm seeing from him. Again tonight's not about scoring. Tonight's about defense.
03:03Tonight's about that extra effort. Tonight really should be you know I want to say like a Tatum
03:06legacy game. But if this game if this series gets extended to six games at that point the
03:10Mavericks are playing with house money knowing that they won that game and they're back at home.
03:14So this has to be a maximum effort from Tatum and the Celtics. Everything they've learned over the
03:18past two seasons. Losing to the Heat in the conference finals. Losing to the Warriors in
03:22the finals two years ago. This is the game for them to put the piece together and finally come
03:26away with the win when it matters most. It has to be a big Tatum game not from scoring from doing
03:30everything else. Vecchio I think that's a fair assessment. This core led by Jason Tatum and
03:36Jalen Brown was going to have their season success defined by an NBA championship and winning the
03:42Larry O'Brien trophy and you called it a legacy game. You said the impetus is on Jason Tatum to
03:49lead the Celtics tonight and you think he goes over nine and a half rebounds. He has a higher
03:54points prop than that of Jalen Brown. So Vecchio make it make sense to us. Why is Jalen Brown a
04:01minus 230 favorite to win the NBA Finals MVP award? Well I was on Brown in a few spots on MVP
04:09prior to this series and it comes down to the impactful shots. As we saw as he won the Eastern
04:15Conference Finals MVP. If he's making game-winning shots. A shot that sent it to overtime to you know
04:20take the lead. Those are more important when it comes to winning the series and winning games
04:24rather than just simply averaging more points overall averaging more rebounds. So when it comes
04:29to Brown his importance when it comes to highlight moments highlight real moments we're going to call
04:33it that stands out to voters rather than oh this player simply had a ton of points. They won games
04:38because X player hit a shot and that's really what we're seeing from Brown right now. If we take a
04:43look from that Mavericks perspective here obviously we know the headliners on their team Kyrie Irving
04:48and also Luka Doncic. Are we looking at any prop perspectives from below them that could certainly
04:53impact the market tonight? How we feeling about the Mavericks and their props? You know I don't
04:57mind some Derek Lively rebounding props just because he's been so good overall but really my
05:02favorite prop for the Mavericks is gonna be Kyrie Irving under 23 and a half points. 12, 16, 35,
05:0821 points is what we've seen from him in the four games this series. Going over this mark just once
05:14and you know notably the first two games struggling big time in the road and I'm not expecting points
05:18overall and those points are going to be distributed among the entire team. It's not like we're going
05:22to see yes maybe 30-ish points from Luka but if Luka and Kyrie are both going over that means I
05:27should be more interested in the Mavericks money line rather than just a single player prop because
05:30that would put them in a spot to win rather than just simply taking over 23 and a half points. So
05:34it's about under for Kyrie tonight. 32 and a half is the points prop for Luka Doncic the highest
05:41entering game number five. He has scored at least 27 in every game this series but has not gone
05:48over 32 and a half his series high 32 back in game number two. Vecchio you mentioned what you
05:55thought was some value if you think Dallas can keep this game competitive and maybe just maybe
06:00when it's second straight to force a game six. Do you believe that truly happens outside of the
06:05value sprinkle or do the Celtics win game number five and championship number 18 tonight? I think
06:13the Celtics win but they don't cover and again looking from a market standpoint and just in
06:18terms of finding exploits I think there is a very clear spot to take if you have interest in Mavericks
06:23but again ultimately what the Celtics have learned over the past two seasons they have put themselves
06:27in the spot that this is the time to shine. I think they win the game they do not cover and
06:31the game hits the under tonight. How about this let's go back to the ice in a game number five
06:36we're also going to talk about similar to the NBA back in Sunrise Florida the Panthers a minus 137
06:41money line price a total of five and a half Oilers Panthers coming up on the deck here Tom
06:46how we feeling about that game? This game is very similar to what we saw for the NBA like we can't
06:52take everything we have to take it all with a grain of salt I should say a blowout in the most
06:56recent game players are seeing different ice times Sergey Bobrovsky got pulled for the Panthers again
07:01we have to kind of throw that out maybe we'll get a few parts here there but ultimately tonight's
07:05all about the under the Panthers are an elite defensive team they've been here before they've
07:09throughout the season that when they make mistakes and correct it the system that Paul
07:12Maurice has in place their head coach has proven over the past two years to constantly put them
07:17in a spot to win games Sasha Barkov has done a phenomenal job outside of that last game at
07:22shutting down McDavid and dry saddle overall limiting their chances the Panthers are at home
07:26they have the preferred line change which means Barkov will always be in a good spot to counter
07:30either McDavid or dry saddle Panthers come away with the win and the under hits tonight I would
07:34be ultimately interested in under four and a half and all thunder because we're not going to
07:38seeing a ton of scoring tonight yeah both games in Edmonton over both games in sunrise under and it
07:45was a very interesting conversation on Saturday with a man called Bob Sergey Bobrovsky getting
07:50pulled after allowing five goals and facing only 11 shots he has been the consmith award favorite
07:57Tom if tomorrow night back in sunrise we do see an under do you think Sergey Bobrovsky ends up
08:03as your consmith award winner ultimately he probably does especially if it's a shutout or
08:09only one goal you know only giving up one goal Barkov he has no value you know as I said before
08:15I was on card where he coming into the series but Evan Rodriguez up there at a massive number
08:19leads the series right now in gold so if he just keeps that magic going I'm not gonna say he's the
08:23best goal scorer in the panther because he's not but if he keeps that that magic going a game-winning
08:28goal he could certainly you maybe sneak a consmith trophy listen right now Sergey Bobrovsky
08:35has only allowed one goal in sunrise but we'll see what happens in game number five tomorrow
08:41the panthers one win away from their first ever Stanley Cup in franchise history Edmonton trying
08:46to make the long trip back up to Alberta after winning game five in sunrise quickly here Becky
08:52O'Paul schemes on the bump today in Pittsburgh what's your approach to schemes and that strikeout
08:57prop of seven and a half if it gets bent up to eight and a half I think there's value taking
09:01under simply because the number's too high and you know fading the public is always a pretty
09:05small thing to do I would also say that schemes for 150 plus strikeouts for the entire season
09:10is at minus 113 if he stays healthy and they don't limit his innings that could something
09:14that would be in play uh as the season comes to an end that's why he's the jack of all trades
09:20on full display on this Monday Becky O thank you for the early line now game number five of the
09:262024 NBA finals tonight inside TD Garden after getting blown out by 38 the Celtics silver lining
09:34is the chance to win championship number 18 the most in NBA history in front of the home crowd
09:41the Mavericks head back to Beantown trying to get back to the Lone Star State not to start their
09:47summer but to force game number six it's a six and a half point spread in favor of the C's our
09:55first total under 210 209 and a hook for a potential elimination game and series clincher
10:03Donnie how do you see game number five playing out just based on the odds right it should be
10:09the Boston Celtics but a fan interest as we are we're rooting for game number six and possibly
10:14game number seven because it's a lot of fun to have it play out the interesting part about this
10:17too is every once in a while handicapping like throws you a wrench we talked about like heading
10:22into the NBA finals and maybe how long these teams were all for and what you actually would
10:27be getting at a game number one because it's outside the norms of the NBA betting season
10:31you're playing every other night every third night most likely and you sort of stay in that rhythm
10:35it's like okay let me watch you play out but also from a perspective of we just saw game number four
10:41which was an absolute shellacking here of 40 points for the Mavericks over the Celtics so
10:46you're saying to yourself is that momentum going to carry over or the Boston Celtics just came in
10:50that game with the wrong mindset in a closeout game where they can win an NBA championship that's
10:54baffling to me but the one thing that we do know and you can rest on your laurels is typically you
10:58are a better home team and that is pointed out so many times throughout the length of this NBA season
11:03how good Boston is at home that means something here the home crowd on your side a chance to
11:08clinch an NBA championship on your own floor you're supposed to get that job done tonight
11:13so if I had to take a side it would be the Boston Celtics because I'm not going to tell you well
11:17Ben I think the Boston Celtics win I just don't think they can cover the six and a half that's
11:21dumb it's not 13 and a half 15 and a half where you could expect a double-digit victory and still
11:25get the close but the one thing I do like though and Tom Vecchio also brought this out 209 and a
11:29half to the under everything means so much more in a closeout game you also take a look at the last
11:34game if that 209 and a half price was still there it still stays under the total despite yet the
11:39Mavericks getting over 120 points I look for both of these teams around 100 points I just don't
11:45think they're going to be able to get to that 210 number to beat that I think the Celtics win
11:49this game and the game stays under the total but I would love to be wrong on the Celtics side to
11:53get us a game number six Ben and if Boston does bounce back and wins an NBA championship tonight
12:00you would expect a much better defensive performance than what we saw in game number
12:05four on Friday getting blown out in the opening half and then letting things really get off the
12:10rails but we have not seen either team or both teams I should say reach a hundred points in any
12:17of the four games of this series one team has scored 100 in all four games we have not seen
12:24both clubs reach the century mark in the same game so far it has led to four games four unders
12:32all four of the previous totals started the game at at least higher than 210 this one under it 209
12:39and a hook I said it in the fade the public poll I say it again here Boston laying six and a half
12:45the Celtics have played 51 games inside TD Garden throughout this season both in the regular season
12:52and throughout this postseason run they won 45 of 51 they are 27 21 and 3 against the spread
13:00favored in every single game in Beantown and the Celtics have played duds throughout this NBA
13:08playoff run it has been a story for the Celtics this year and in previous seasons when they were
13:14expected to contend for an NBA championship game two against Miami game two against Cleveland what
13:20did the Celtics do go on the road in game three win and cover as at least a seven point favorite
13:27game one they escaped in overtime of the Eastern Conference Finals against Indiana it was one of
13:34their biggest duds to start off that series the only cover they had against the Pacers was in game
13:40two winning by double digits and covering for the first time as a single digit favorite at home
13:45inside TD Garden throughout this playoff run in game four was certainly a dud in Dallas I expect
13:53the Celtics to cover six and a half tonight and win championship number 18 now let's get to the
14:00individuals that will indicate what the outcome is for Boston it's the comparison of the Jays
14:07Jason Tatum Jalen Brown 27 and a half points for Tatum 24 and a half points for Jalen Brown and
14:14Donnie it goes right back into the NBA Finals MVP conversation every prop on your screen that Jason
14:21Tatum has is higher than that of Jalen Brown and yet he is the underdog in the NBA Finals MVP
14:28conversation Brown minus 230 Tatum plus 220. Yeah I'm going to put my chips in Jason Tatum's
14:34basket here you take a look at that 27 and a half I do think he goes over that and get great maybe
14:39they get beat by 40 points and he sits the entirety of the second half maybe that's going to happen
14:43again obviously we don't think that's going to be the case this game is going to be won or lost
14:47based on Jason Tatum shooting 25 plus times I also like Jason Tatum it is expensive at the
14:53over two and a half three point shots made at a minus 146 price so that also would correlate into
14:59I do think Jason Tatum is going to be the NBA Finals MVP when it's all said and done because
15:03of a better performance and then obviously Brown would have time but also Derek White over three
15:08and a half three point shots not as expensive it's at a plus 126 point I can see him getting down
15:12with four or more three point shots I always like to be guys at home because they tend to shoot a
15:17little and play a little bit better at home so that's where I'm going Tatum over threes Tatum
15:22points Derek White over threes and we'll get to Luka Doncic in just a moment at 32 and a half but
15:2823 and a half is the number for Kyrie Irving that was way too complimentary of the Boston crowd in
15:34the first two games of this NBA Finals whatever he needs to do to get into his bag and go over
15:4123 and a half tonight albeit hopefully not just slander people necessarily Kyrie Irving should do
15:48that because Donnie if he doesn't go over 23 and a half I don't think the Mavericks even cover as a
15:53six and a half point dog in Beantown tonight no he's got it again this game is going to be based
15:59on the superstars you want to take a look at that 60 point number we always talk about with Luka
16:02Doncic and Kyrie they got to clear that hurdle they have to do that tonight but also saying the
16:06same thing on the opposite side if you get good performances out of Luka and Kyrie you know who
16:10has to have good performances the Jay brothers they are over there in Boston and I expect good
16:14performances all the way around well Donnie why aren't you just taking the over at this point
16:18one of those two things isn't going to happen where both of these stars go toe to toe I think
16:22it's going to be Luka and I think it's going to be Tatum here good performances could also be on
16:27the defensive end and Drew Holiday should be a part of our conversation as well we'll talk a little
16:33bit more about the props give you one final best bet on this Monday ahead of game number five of
16:39the 2024 NBA Finals tonight inside TD Garden. Game number five of the NBA Finals tonight Boston
16:46one win away from championship number 18 can the Mavericks do what has nearly been impossible
16:52and that's be down an 0-3 series deficit in a best of seven and win two consecutive games I
16:59think if that happens Donnie Luka Doncic has to go off once again he has scored 27 or more
17:07in all four games of this 2024 NBA Finals set to this point including 30 plus in both of the
17:15two games in Boston but never over 32 and a half I like the number on Luka Doncic tonight not only
17:24because he scored 30 plus in both in Beantown but you look at 27 in game three if he hadn't fouled
17:31out with 4-12 remaining in regulation probably goes over 32 and a half and if the game was even
17:37remotely more competitive on Friday finishing with 29 points he goes over 32 and a hook as well if
17:45the Mavericks even keep this game close and competitive Luka Doncic in my estimation must
17:52go over 32 and a hook yeah and also let's ramp it up a little bit you're getting some pretty
17:56good price points here on a triple double for Luke at a five to one price and you know he's
18:00going to be hunting around that number obviously we know he's going to score more than 10 points
18:04and you just need one of those quarters right like the first quarter seven points three rebounds
18:09three assists and on the way you go because we are expecting this nobody is looking at the Mavericks
18:14going on the road going like man Gafford was the key to that equation never saw that coming more
18:1833 points what you know what I mean we're not doing that like it's about the upper echelon players
18:23like this game is going to be won or lost whether Luka Doncic shows up now the one thing we know
18:27he's going to show up tonight but how efficient is he going to be if he shoots 28 times can he
18:32make 18 of those shots we'll find that out but if you are a big game hunting Luka's the guy to go
18:37to because I you hear me say this a lot there's no at the end of the game Luka's like the ball
18:41just didn't get to me I'm sorry I couldn't help my team out he will make sure that ball's in his
18:45hand and I expect a big performance tonight maybe a look at a triple double at five to one price
18:51PJ Washington was Dallas's second leading scorer in the first two games of this NBA championship
18:57set in Boston that cannot happen it's got to be Kyrie Irving tonight 23 in a hook is his points
19:04prop in the first two games of course we saw Kristaps Porzingis in KP was a huge factor
19:11in Beantown we have not seen him in game three or game four the Celtics are reporting kind of
19:17through people that he's a break of glass emergency case tonight if absolutely necessary we don't
19:24expect to see Kristaps Porzingis in game five and in the absence of KP in games three and four
19:30Derek Lively has been huge for Dallas at home in Dallas at least 11 points in both games three and
19:38four at least 12 boards as well I liked him to go over either eight and a half points or
19:43eight and a half rebounds on Friday he did both for a second consecutive game