A US Navy submarine has arrived in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, in a show of force as a fleet of Russian warships gather for planned military exercises in the Caribbean. Ed Augustin reports from Havana. Jeffrey Hawn, researcher at the London School of Economics and Political Science, tells FRANCE 24's Mark Owen that the small size of the Russian fleet involved in the naval drills in the Caribbean is indicative that the exercises are largely symbolic.
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00:00 Tonight, Russian warships and submarines dock in Cuba.
00:08 It's a situation that echoes the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis that pushed the world to the
00:13 brink of nuclear war.
00:14 A Russian Navy frigate and nuclear-powered submarine churning into Havana harbor this
00:18 Wednesday - a stopover the US and Cuba said posed no threat, but which was widely seen
00:25 as a Russian show of force as tensions rise over the Ukraine war.
00:30 White House National Security Advisor said that there was no evidence that Russia was
00:33 transferring any missiles to Cuba, but the US would remain vigilant.
00:38 Ed Augustin is in Havana for France 24.
00:43 A Russian naval deployment docked in Havana on Wednesday for the first time since the
00:48 start of the war in Ukraine.
00:50 Analysts say it's a signal, coming two weeks after Washington gave the Ukrainian army the
00:55 green light to hit targets within Russia with US weapons.
01:00 The Russian Defense Ministry released a video of the flotilla carrying out drills while
01:04 approaching Cuba, and the Biden administration dispatched three destroyers to track the flotilla.
01:11 Cubans watching said the arrival was good news.
01:14 "We need each other.
01:17 Cuba has a geographically strategic position in the middle of the Americas, and Cuba needs
01:23 Russian economic help and technology."
01:26 This Russian tourist enjoying Havana's sights with his wife agreed.
01:33 "I hope that the relationship between Russia and Cuba gets stronger.
01:41 We have lots to offer each other."
01:46 Russian tourism to Cuba has so far doubled this year.
01:50 As trade has increased, Cuba's position on the war in Ukraine has become more pro-Russian,
01:55 with Havana now supporting the invasion.
01:58 "Both nations, both Russia and Cuba, are subjected to unfair, arbitrary sanctions that
02:04 come from, originate from the same enemy, the Yankee empire."
02:09 Though Russia and Cuba are moving closer together politically and economically, they're still
02:13 not military allies.
02:15 Nonetheless, analysts say that symbols like this will make any future rapprochement with
02:19 the United States a lot harder.
02:23 Sanctions placed on Russia since the war in Ukraine and extra sanctions placed on Cuba
02:27 ever since the Trump administration are binding the erstwhile allies together.
02:32 Ed Augustin, our reporter there.
02:36 It's fair to say that some analysts have talked me down for this comparison to the Cuba missile
02:42 crisis.
02:43 It's not the same.
02:44 But I say it's an echo of the situation.
02:46 I mean, certainly the idea of Russian forces pulling into Cuba like that, it does conjure
02:52 a certain image.
02:53 And of course, this all comes off the back of Vladimir Putin saying just a couple of
02:57 weeks ago that the fact that the UK, France and now the US have given a green light to
03:03 Ukraine to fire the weapons that the allies are providing at targets on Russian soil.
03:10 It gives, according to Vladimir Putin, him the possibility to supply weapons to countries
03:15 that could perhaps fire those weapons at allied soil.
03:18 So there we have the kind of context in a nutshell.
03:21 The latest we can tell you is that a US submarine has now pulled into Guantanamo Bay.
03:27 Of course, that is on the island of Cuba.
03:29 A routine visit, according to the Pentagon.
03:32 Let's get the analysis.
03:33 Geoffrey Horn joins us, a researcher at the London School of Economics.
03:37 Thank you very much, sir, for being with us.
03:40 Russia says the US has nothing to worry about.
03:42 That seems to be the kind of theme.
03:44 How do you interpret it?
03:48 So my interpretation is that this is very much, as you said, for performance.
03:54 Russia is very much trying to make a statement through this deployment, but it has very little
03:59 true military significance or value.
04:01 It's essentially a PR stunt and it's designed to help to escalate the rhetoric around those
04:07 in the in the United States, especially the American right, who are increasingly trying
04:14 to say, why are we risking confrontation with Russia over Ukraine?
04:18 Look how there's Russian troops off of our coastline.
04:22 But yes, it has very little military significance.
04:25 It is very much a PR stunt.
04:28 So little military significance, as you say.
04:31 And so the parallel that I made with the Cuban Missile Crisis fades away, I think, in that
04:35 sense, and that clearly is a good thing.
04:38 But you mentioned the right in the United States.
04:41 Now, the right in the United States, Trump supporters, Trump acolytes in the Republican
04:46 Party, which is turning more and more into Trump's party, they might perhaps want to
04:51 revise funding for Ukraine in that sense.
04:54 Now, I'm wondering whether this kind of sabre wrapping exercise by Putin might actually
04:58 backfire on him, because surely the Republicans would look weak if they were to say, well,
05:03 let's stop funding Ukraine, because that would be giving Putin exactly what he wants.
05:07 Is there a possibility this could backfire on Putin in that sense, do you think?
05:11 You would think so.
05:13 And in any other election environment, that would be the logic.
05:16 However, the Trumpian takeover of the Republican Party has become so total that essentially
05:25 there's no way to come back from that.
05:29 It's many people within the American right see Putin's Russia as something to aspire
05:34 to, strong, nationalistic state.
05:36 They look at this and they don't say, well, obviously he's threatening us because we are
05:41 supporting Ukraine, but we should be able to threaten other nations in the exact same
05:45 way.
05:46 And yet they'll look at it as something to imitate, but it's also Trump always very much
05:51 frames international relations in exchange, in deals.
05:57 And he'll say, look, there won't be any submarines off our coast as soon as I make a deal with
06:01 Putin and yeah, we'll give away Ukrainian land, but they'll have to listen to us because
06:07 we're the strongest.
06:08 So I don't think it will have a significant backfire on the media and political ecosystem.
06:14 However, how voters will feel will be very different.
06:17 It's interesting to note that the American right wing media seems to be covering this
06:20 much more than the American mainstream media by and large, although there has been substantially
06:26 more coverage than this fairly small deployment warrants.
06:31 Indeed, it is a very facile way that the Republicans appear to be looking at it from what you've
06:35 just said.
06:36 Very, very simplistic.
06:38 Yes, that's correct.
06:41 Unfortunately, there's not a lot of intellectual depth left in the Republican Party after the
06:45 Trump takeovers.
06:47 Many people have of intellectual heft have migrated outside of it.
06:52 I'm wondering from Putin's perspective, what does he think he's achieving?
06:56 Well, Putin is communicating in two different dimensions here.
07:01 One is the international message, which we have already established, which is communicating
07:05 to the critics of Ukrainian support in the West, showing the West also that Russia is
07:11 a great power that can project its authority and its power abroad.
07:15 He's also communicating to a domestic audience very much.
07:19 It's like, look, we are a great power.
07:21 You know, if they will allow their weapons to strike Russian soil, we'll send our ships
07:26 to their coastline and we'll threaten to bring the war home to them.
07:33 It's very much that kind of communication.
07:35 But I want to be absolutely clear.
07:36 What we're seeing is the deployment of a very small military contingent, one missile frigate,
07:44 one ballistic missile submarine, and two auxiliary support ships.
07:52 Although they do have weapons that could strike the U.S. mainland, they are not, it is not
07:57 necessary for them to be in a position to strike the U.S. mainland in any kind of capacity.
08:02 It is very much a symbolic move, which is to say there Russia has other intercontinental
08:07 missiles that could be far more devastating.
08:10 These are just very much a symbolic action.
08:13 OK, I hear what you're saying.
08:15 I don't know whether I'm reassured or not, but I hear exactly what you're saying there.
08:18 There is a third party in this in this discussion.
08:21 That is Cuba.
08:22 Doesn't this put Cuba in a pretty tricky situation?
08:26 Not at all.
08:27 Actually, Cuba is very much welcoming this.
08:29 Cuba has had a very hostile relationship with the United States since the change of government
08:33 in 1962.
08:35 The other major power in the region, which Cuba has a close relationship with, which
08:40 Russia is increasingly trying to build a good relationship with, is Venezuela.
08:44 Both Cuba and Venezuela's foreign policy is increasingly based around confronting the
08:50 United States or pushing back at U.S. sanctions.
08:54 Cuba itself has been under embargo since the 1960s, despite being 90 miles from the U.S.
09:00 coast.
09:01 And this shows that they continue to have international legitimacy.
09:04 They continue to have international support.
09:06 Russia is a potential partner for military and economic ties.
09:12 Russia cannot provide the same role that the Soviet Union did throughout the Cold War.
09:18 But essentially, it allows those regimes to say that we are not alone in the world and
09:22 that we do have people who are with us and standing up to the United States.
09:26 So will this Cuban stunt be the first of many that Russia will try to pull around the world
09:31 in order to create this atmosphere of fear and tension, to kind of create this image
09:36 that Russia can do things perhaps that would strike fear into the allies?
09:41 Yes, and we've seen Russia do this before.
09:44 We remember back in 2014 when the situation in Ukraine first began to escalate, Russia
09:51 resumed its international nuclear bomber patrols.
09:56 Shortly after, a few years later, Russia did send two of its nuclear capable bombers to
10:05 Venezuela and threatened to open an airbase there.
10:08 They never did.
10:09 So we'll likely continue to see this kind of performative stunts.
10:12 But there's a question of how much capacity Russia has to stage these, because it has
10:18 a significant amount of its military assets tied up in Ukraine.
10:23 And a diminishing ability to act internationally.
10:27 So we will probably continue to see these kind of propagandistic stunts, but I'm not
10:33 sure if they'll be particularly as widespread or consistent as they will.
10:38 I doubt we'll see another major naval deployment for some time after this.
10:44 Geoffrey Horne of the London School of Economics, thank you very much indeed for sharing your
10:47 insight with us here on Apropos on France 24.
10:49 We appreciate your time, sir.
10:50 Thank you very much indeed.
10:53 Just to remind you, a US submarine pulling into Guantanamo Bay in Cuba as that Russian
10:58 warship and Russian submarine are docked in Havana.
11:02 We're watching for developments.
11:03 Thanks again to our guest and thank you for watching.
11:05 Stay with us.
11:06 Much more to come here on France 24.
11:07 before.
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