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00:00A full Major League Baseball card on this Tuesday and Donny
00:04right side has plenty of place for you around the bigs. I'm
00:08talking 15 games. I'm talking a ton of RBI shots. I'm talking a
00:14ton of value for Major League Baseball on Dinger Tuesday on
00:18the FanDuel Sportsbook as well. Game number one yesterday in
00:22Kansas City between the Royals and the Yankees was a similar
00:26story for New York. Carlos Rodon has won his last seven
00:30starts in a row in the Yankees win yet another game. 47 the
00:35most in all of Major League Baseball. 4-2 the victory with
00:38Juan Soto returning to the lineup. No Aaron Judge on a
00:42Monday expected I would believe to be in the lineup on a
00:45Tuesday. He has a home run prop available at plus 230. The
00:49Yanks were a road favorite in Kauffman yesterday. A road
00:52favorite in Kauffman today against KC. And rightfully so.
00:56They probably should be if we take a look at Marcus Stroman
00:58to be on the mound for the New York Yankees. You take a look
01:00at his last 30 days against left-handed batters. It's about
01:02average. It's a 175 ISO power number to 328 weighted on base
01:06percentage. If you take a look at the full season, it's much
01:09higher 252 and 385 respectively. So he has gotten better against
01:13left-handed batters here right-handed batters. He's been
01:15filthy this entire season on the totality of the season 169
01:19batters. He's faced from the left excuse me from the right
01:22side. A 118 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 267. It's
01:25almost identical to that over the past 30 days. So you'd want
01:28to look in that lineup here for left-handed batters. Now, we
01:31love Vinny P. He's got a 208 ISO power number against right-handed
01:34pitching over the past month. However, that weighted on base
01:36percentage only 298. There's not a lot of great left-hitting
01:39batters in the lineup today where I don't I don't know if
01:41the Royals will be able to take advantage and dominate against
01:44Marcus Stroman. Let's flip it over to the other side. Brady
01:46Singer's been a decent pitcher this season, but he has
01:49struggled with left-handed batters. So now that we love Juan
01:52Soto back in the lineup yesterday got a base hit looks
01:54like that forums not bothering all that much at the plate.
01:57He's got unbelievable numbers. 81 at bats against right-handed
02:00pitching over the past 30 days equates to a 388 ISO power
02:03number and a 466 weighted on base percentage. Alex Radugo
02:07is going to bat behind judge who is expected to be back in the
02:10lineup tonight. He's got a 195 ISO and a 335 weighted on base
02:13percentage. I do think the Yankees win this game. And if
02:15you take a look at RBI props, I know it's the judges numbers
02:19are insane against right-handers, but we're trying
02:21to stick to the script here with Singer has been very good
02:23against righties and poor against lefties. We'll take
02:25those left-handed batters to do damage Soto over do go for me
02:28and that lineup tonight for the Yanks. Tonight. We go to
02:31Camden between Baltimore and Atlanta a really good matchup
02:35this week between the Braves and the O's where with Max
02:39Freed on the bump the Braves booked as a road favorite in
02:43Baltimore. The O's just came off a four-game sweep of Tampa
02:47at the Trop this weekend extended into Monday. So they
02:50do have to make the trip back home, but Baltimore's won 14
02:54of its last 18 games and yet the home underdog today. How
02:58come? Yeah, you know, it's interesting about this game.
03:01You take a look at Max Freed has been absolutely filthy this
03:03year. A left-handed pitcher usually struggles a little bit
03:06against righties. That's not the case here in 040 ISO power
03:10number to weighted on base percentage of 191 through 222
03:13batters. That's insane. And of course when you have a left
03:15handed pitcher on the mound, what is that team going to do
03:17you're facing? They're going to stack it with right-handed
03:20batters. That really doesn't work in your favor. Only two
03:22lefties expected in the lineup tonight Colton Calzer and
03:25Gunner Henderson. Now Gunner Henderson through 24 at bats
03:27has awesome numbers against left-handed pitching and having
03:30said that if there was a spot where Max Freed will be
03:33struggling. It's his 399 weighted on base percentage
03:36against lefties over the past month here, but also have a
03:38Gunner Henderson's projection tonight not to be the leadoff
03:41hitter Ben, but to be in the four hole tonight where you'd
03:44go righty righty righty then lefty at that point. So
03:47something to keep an eye on if we're looking at the Atlanta
03:49Braves. It's one of those lineups that we love to start
03:51the season, but it's not one of those lineups that we
03:53absolutely love now and you take a look at Suarez on the
03:56mound 52 batters. He's faced over the past month and 088
03:59ISO and a 243 weighted on base percentage. So if I'm looking
04:03at this lineup today, Ozuna looks solid Olsen looks solid
04:06Kellinick and Murphy, but those numbers don't stack up against
04:09Suarez who has good splits between lefty and righty
04:12batters. If I'm being honest tonight, we're probably seeing
04:14an under tonight at Camden Yards, which is the case for
04:18Atlanta. They have gone under and 60.7% of their games. The
04:23Braves lost the final three of a four game set against the
04:28Washington Nationals. They have lost two series against the
04:32Nats in the last two and a half weeks. I believe it wasn't
04:36since 2018 or 2019 that the Nationals had even won a series
04:42against their divisional foe in the Braves. They've won two in
04:45the last two weeks against Atlanta, who I guess shouldn't
04:49really be a surprise to see booked as a favorite. They have
04:52been favored in 60 of their 63 games this year, but against
04:55the O's again, Baltimore, a home underdog could be a look
05:00today. Now as we go elsewhere around Major League Baseball,
05:04more interleague affairs between a National League East
05:07and an American League East team, Philadelphia heads to
05:10Boston as they make their return to the states. The Phil's
05:14minus 178 as or minus 176 rather as a road favorite
05:18tonight in Fenway total at eight and Zach Wheeler is on
05:23the bump when that's the case for Philadelphia. Often good
05:26things happen. It usually is and also you take a look at an
05:29extended break for some of these starting pitchers with
05:31Aaron Nola and Zach Wheeler, which you keep in mind they
05:33took off Thursday and Friday played Saturday and Sunday took
05:36off Monday. Neither one of these guys pitched in London, so
05:39you're expecting a good outing from Wheeler, but that lineup
05:41might be a little bit questionable. Let's take a look
05:43about trusting your numbers here when going up against Zach
05:46Wheeler, one of the best pitchers in baseball. He
05:48dominates against right handed batters as a right handed
05:51pitcher, but he is average against lefties and here's the
05:54reason why I'm bringing that up past 30 days 68 lefties. He's
05:56faced a 169 ISO, which is about average weighted on base
05:59percentage of 345. Why is that important? You got three
06:03absolute studs right now in the lineup batting from the left
06:06hand position against right handed batters over the past
06:09month for the Boston Red Sox Duran 355 ISO 450 weighted on
06:13base percentage as a lefty versus righty Valdez 579 ISO
06:18566 weighted on base percentage as a lefty versus righty
06:21Raphael Devers 484 ISO 481 weighted on base percentage as
06:25a lefty versus righties. So if you want to stick to the plan,
06:28those three guys probably should be on your card for some
06:31RBI action. The rest of the lineup leaves a lot to be
06:33desired. Flip it over to Cutter Crawford, who is
06:35struggling over the past 30 days with both lefty and righty
06:38batters after having a very, very good start to the season.
06:41So Bryce Harper and Alec Boehm in the middle of that lineup
06:44should be on your card, but I don't love this Phillies lineup
06:47Schwarber, Riomuto, Stott, Castellanos, Dahl, and Rojas,
06:51not good numbers against right handed pitching over the past
06:5330 days. So this is an interesting handicap. If you
06:56trust your numbers, maybe you're getting a pretty good
06:58price here on Boston, but it's hard to go against some of
07:01those analytical numbers that really match up in the favor of
07:04obviously a great pitcher like Zach Wheeler. And Cutter
07:07Crawford was great for Boston to start this year. First eight
07:10starts of the season, a 2-1 record, a 1.75 ERA, but Donnie
07:15mentioned how Crawford has struggled in the last 30 days
07:18or so. In his last five starts, he has given up 20 total earned
07:23runs. Tonight, we go out to Los Angeles, where last year's
07:27World Series champs take on this year's current World Series
07:31favorites. The Dodgers, a home favorite against the Rangers
07:34tonight, minus 148, the Moneyline number in favor of
07:38L.A. If you remember Paul Skeen's day last week, James
07:42Paxton, who gets the start tonight in Los Angeles, got the
07:45start against Skeens, and we were all surprised, really not
07:48Donnie, but a lot of us were surprised the Dodgers were a
07:50dog, not a dog tonight with Paxton on the bump. Yeah, he's
07:55a terrible analytic pitcher. We're talking about Paxton's,
07:57and we'll get to him in just a second. Temperatures there,
07:59cooler, 67 degrees, light wind blowing out the center field,
08:02so a typical night that you're going to get in L.A.
08:04However, if we're taking a look at Dane Dunning on the mound,
08:06struggles with left-handed batters, that used to
08:08automatically ring a bell, because that's Shohei Otani,
08:10that's Freddie Freeman, even Jason Hayward with some really
08:13good numbers as a lefty versus righty. As a matter of fact, if
08:15we do have that anticipated starting lineup tonight, Betts,
08:18Otani, Freeman, Will Smith, Hernandez, and Hayward, every
08:20one of those guys, above average ISO power numbers and
08:23above average weighted on base percentages over the past 30
08:26days against right-handed pitching. That should bode well
08:28for them, but having said that again, hard to trust James
08:31Paxton. He's a fly ball pitcher that doesn't strike a lot of
08:33guys out and walks too many guys, which means runners will
08:36be on base. However, that lineup here for the Texas
08:38Rangers doesn't look all that fantastic opposite a guy like
08:41Seager not being in the lineup. If there's one guy I would
08:44choose and say if you wanted maybe an over one and a half
08:46bases, an RBI chance, maybe a chance to score a run, Marcus
08:49Simmon at the top of that lineup. 32 at bats over the
08:51past month against left-handed pitching, 333 ISO, 525 weighted
08:56on base percentage. I still do give a slight lean to the
08:58Dodgers here because I like the way their lineup presents, but
09:00boy oh boy, if you're trusting Paxton, that's usually a money
09:03burner. And right now, Texas, by the way, a very large
09:08underteam alongside Atlanta and Houston, the only three clubs
09:11in MLB playing 60% of their games to the under Texas under
09:1611 of its last 15 games for MLB breakdowns next. Skeins day
09:21number six in the history of Major League Baseball tonight
09:25under the arch in St. Louis. You got Craig Mish's thoughts on
09:29the game. Now time for down here right side thoughts and
09:33the handicap for tonight in the loo. Pittsburgh booked as a
09:38favorite. I guess that is going to be common occurrence when
09:40Paul Skeins makes a start on the bump around a minus 134
09:45price in favor of the Buccos. DRS, we've shared this a couple
09:49of times, but I do find the National League Central rather
09:52compelling for the rest of this summer. Only one team, that's
09:56Milwaukee, has a winning record at the moment. The Brew crew
09:59well above 500, a seven game lead for the top spot in the
10:03division, but the Cardinals and the Pirates along with the Reds
10:07playing much better baseball and the Cubs who are actually
10:09kind of floundering at the moment. Nobody is worse than
10:12three games below 500 and that's the Buccos in the basement. So
10:16there is a group of teams that if they started to play better
10:20could maybe make a run in the National League. Yeah, no, they
10:24could and by the way, I think Milwaukee really is built for
10:27playoff baseball to be honest. I like that one through nine.
10:29They're a much better hitting lineup than what they showed
10:31last year and also if you're going to get very good front
10:34end pitching in the rotation, if they make a move to trade
10:37deadline, we're also talking about, as I said, getting David
10:39Williams back. It's all about, you know, not so much your
10:41starter because you expect them to be at least solid in the
10:43postseason, but when you have that lead in the fifth, sixth,
10:46seventh, eighth, and ninth innings, do you have guys that
10:48can put that game away? If you have a one run lead, they can
10:50probably do that. So if we're looking at today, another
10:52central battle, Skeins certainly should be the favorite in this
10:55game. There's no question about it. Just look at the past 30
10:58days, 36% strikeout rate, which ups to 43% when he goes against
11:03lefties, which is incredible. Look at his ISO power number
11:05122 weighted on base percentage 231. The two best batters in the
11:09lineup tonight over the past 30 days against right-handed
11:12pitching are both lefties here, Gorman and Burleson. They have
11:14fantastic numbers, but I just told you 43% of the batters
11:17that are stepping to the plate against Skeins' lefties aren't
11:20even making contact, which is incredible at this point. So
11:23advantage right away. Now, do we have a great lineup here for
11:25Pittsburgh on a night-to-night basis? No, we don't. And Myles
11:28Miklas, who has had a much better run than the start of
11:31the season, which he started out, let's take a look at the
11:33totality of the season, Ben. Almost 300 batters he's faced,
11:36a 205 ISO and a weighted on base percentage of 345. That
11:39should get you wrecked on a night-to-night basis, but take
11:41a look at the last 30 days. That 205 ISO lowers to 154. That
11:45345 weighted on base percentage lowers to 277. So I'm looking at
11:49an under today, but also if you are thinking that the better
11:52team is Pittsburgh, which I think it is, you better be
11:54taking them in the first five innings. Don't have Skeins go
11:57six innings, 101 pitches and dominate, and then leave it up
11:59to some of those guys in the pen. If you're taking Skeins
12:02today, take them first five. Pittsburgh has won four of his
12:06five starts and all four of those starts, Skeins has
12:09recorded at least seven Ks. There is a Skeins specials on
12:14the FanDuel Sportsbook under a specific tab. Do any of these
12:19tempt you? 35-1. Paul Skeins to throw a no-no through his first
12:24five innings, a minimum of 15 outs. Paul Skeins to record
12:28three strikeouts in the first inning, three plus strikeouts
12:32in the first inning. How would he record four? A swinging
12:35strike miss and then another. Yeah, what's that? Alright,
12:38well, there you go. 14-1. It's not even enough. If you give me
12:44four strikeouts, what even would that be? That would have
12:47to be a lottery ticket, wouldn't it? I wonder what
12:49those prices would be. Yeah, $110,001, something of the
12:53sort. Paul Skeins to go three up, three down in the first
12:56inning. That's the shortest number, plus 130. Any of the
12:59Skeins specials catch your eye? Yeah, three up, three down. I
13:03mean, it probably makes the most sense because you know
13:04getting out of the gape and you tried to say, hey, maybe Skeins
13:07don't got that fastball to start off the game. Where's he
13:09going? 101 right off the bat and away you go. So, I like
13:12that one. I think three up, three down does make some
13:14sense. Plus 280 by the way to go over 101 miles per hour for
13:18Paul Skeins' first pitch of the day. Plus 114 of the over of
13:23seven and a half strikeouts. That's the K prop for Skeins.
13:26Now, we go back to Milwaukee. A team we just highlighted. The
13:30Brew Crew, the only team in the National League Central above
13:33512 games above 500 but a slight home underdog today
13:38against the Toronto Blue Jays. Eight and a half the total in
13:40Milwaukee. What do you like? Yeah, trying to see who that
13:44confirmed pitcher is here. Do we have that up for the uh looks
13:47like Rodriguez which I don't know if we really have too much
13:49of a uh stat basis on that but let's just take a look in your
13:52bet. You're going up against Yusei Kikuchi. What a very good
13:55start to the Major League Baseball season which included
13:57absolutely dominating left-handed batters. That's
13:59still the case here in the past 30 days but against
14:01right-handed batters, the tide has turned from a great start
14:04to the beginning of the season now whose last 97 batters of 213
14:08weighted on base percentage assuming 213 ISO and a 372
14:11weighted on base percentage. Here's the crux of the argument
14:14though. Joey Ortiz due to bat lead off. Solid chance here
14:17tonight. Take a look at Blake Perkins. You know, switch hitter
14:20that's probably going to bat in the seven hole today. Legitimate
14:22options but the rest of that lineup hasn't done all that
14:24well with lefties here and it's hard to handicap if I don't
14:27have those numbers on Rodriguez. So, maybe just a
14:30slight lean because I know what I'm getting out of Kikuchi
14:32without a great hitting lineup against left-handed batters. So,
14:35I'll just lean on that at this point. Carlos Rodriguez, the 22
14:40year old from Nicaragua makes his MLB debut for Milwaukee
14:44today. Yeah. He is the back to back minor league pitcher of
14:48the year for this Brewer's organization sharing the award
14:52a season ago. Okay. With our guy Robert Gasser who might be
14:56out for the remainder of this year. A central focus today but
15:00an interleague matchup at the Great American Ballpark in
15:04Cincinnati between the Reds and the Guardians. Cleveland
15:07atop the American League Central. The Reds playing
15:09better baseball. Cleveland a road favorite today in Cincy.
15:13Yeah, I was doing a little work on this one. A suitor is going
15:16to open the game. Here's the left-handed pitcher for the
15:18Cincinnati Reds. So, when you line up that lineup for the
15:20Guardians, it looks sensational. Oh, let me get
15:22after it because that's the matchup but he's only going to
15:24be in for a couple, you know, outs presumably and probably
15:27at the end of the first inning be lifted. I do believe it's
15:29Nick Martinez that's going to be coming behind him as a
15:31right-handed pitcher. You say, oh, Nick Martinez. Don't hear
15:34that name. He's probably not that good. He actually has some
15:36very good starts. Last 30 days, seventy-three batters he's
15:39faced. Only 153 ISO and a 227 weighted on base percentage.
15:43Even though that lineup presents incredibly well, you
15:46would love to take Ramirez and Fry's RBI chances and I'm not
15:49saying they can't get one but I like to just stick to the
15:52numbers that I trust and instead of just saying, I like
15:54these guys. They're really good hitters to go up against it.
15:57They really don't match up all that well. Now, let's take a
15:59look at Cincinnati on the opposite side. Tristan McKenzie,
16:01one of the worst analytical guys you will see and also
16:04some of those other numbers prove it out as well. Last 59
16:07batters he's faced as a right-handed pitcher against
16:08right-handed batters. How about this, Ben? A 479 ISO and a
16:12weighted on base percentage of 524. So, immediately, you want
16:16to start hunting there for right-handed batters but
16:18there's no real good ones in the lineup. The lefties, Benson,
16:20good numbers. Candelario will be a lefty today. TJ Friedel
16:23will be a lefty today. It just doesn't line up perfectly or so.
16:26I don't really have too much of an effort on this game because
16:28they have an opener on one side, a bad analytics pitcher but I
16:31don't know if they could take advantage of it today. A couple
16:34of more Major League Baseball plays and a best bet. Up next,
16:37live right here on the Early Line. From May 20th on, the Reds
16:41have been playing good baseball. They have won twelve
16:43of their last sixteen. From May 21st on, it has been a very
16:48different story for the Chicago Cubs. Chicago on May 21st with
16:53a victory over the Braves at Wrigley. Twenty-seven and
16:56twenty-two. Now, the record, thirty-two and thirty-four.
17:01That means the Cubbies have dropped twelve of their last
17:03seventeen trying to right the ship starting today in Tampa at
17:07the trough against the Rays but Tampa booked as a pretty
17:11hefty home favorite minus 142. The Rays trying to respond
17:15after being swept in a four-game set by Baltimore over
17:18the weekend that ended yesterday. Hey, Zach Eflin was
17:22good last year. A little bit, you know, underwhelming this
17:24year to say the least but he does have decent splits here.
17:27261 batters he's faced on the season. 169 on a weighted on
17:30base percentage of 310. What's the issue that always gets you
17:33in trouble in Major League Baseball? You gotta be a
17:35strikeout guy. He doesn't strike anybody out. How about
17:37a K percentage over the past 30 days of only 13%. Now, he
17:41doesn't walk anybody so that means that ball gets put in
17:43play. A couple of decent hitters in the lineup tonight
17:45that do match up against Zach Eflin here for the Cubs. That
17:48is Seiyu Suzuki at 251 ISO power number and Ian Happ by
17:51the way. Sixty at bats against right into pitching over the
17:54past month. How about this? A 396 ISO coupled with a 386
17:57weighted on base percentage. If we flip it over to the other
18:00side, Jamison Tyone will be on the mound today for the Cubs.
18:03He's been struggling with left-handed batters on the
18:05season to the tune of a 189 ISO and a three, excuse me, 420
18:09weighted on base percentage over the past 58 batters in the
18:12last 30 days. However, you take a look at this Tampa Bay Rays
18:15lineup. If we go for the first nine guys or let's just say
18:18nine batters that we anticipate tonight, only one guy is a plus
18:21ISO power number and only two guys have plus weighted on base
18:24percentages. If we take a look at Diaz, Lowe, Rosarania,
18:27Paredes, Lowe, Siri, Walls, Palacios, and Woodfelt, only
18:31one guy and that's Josh Lowe at a 225 ISO. This does not line
18:35up for a lot of runs tonight down the trough. I'm going to
18:37go under with that. Not in love with either one of these teams
18:39but these lineups certainly don't impress me all that much
18:41man. Now, we go to what might be Donny Redside's favorite game
18:46of this full Tuesday MLB court. Phoenix between the Diamondbacks
18:51and the Angels. Arizona, a hefty home favorite. Jordan
18:54Montgomery gets the start against the Halos team that is
18:57in the cellar of the American League West but we don't love
19:00this game because of the lopsided matchup. We love this
19:03game because of the RBI props. DRS, which ones do you like the
19:06most? If we're taking a look at the Los Angeles Angels, very
19:10rare that you're going to see a team that's this underwhelming
19:12of a, you know, underdog coming in and say, well, what makes
19:15sense and why should you go with the Angels? Because it does
19:17come down to pitcher versus pitcher matchup. You don't have
19:19a great one on the mound for the Angels but take a look at
19:21Jordan Montgomery. Last 30 days, 115 batters he's faced
19:25Ben, a 214 iso and a 425 weighted on base percentage. If
19:28you just take a look at him being a left-handed pitcher
19:30which you're going to face a lot of righties tonight, a 222
19:33iso and a 429 weighted on base percentage over the past 30
19:36days. If we extend that to full season Ben, 173 batters he's
19:40faced. A 228 iso and a weighted on base percentage of 404. Look
19:44at this lineup against lefties over the past month here.
19:46Rangifo, 455 weighted on base percentage. Ward, 369. Pilar,
19:51628. O'Hoppy, 501. Adele, 373. And Zach Noto, 448. This lineup
19:57sets up tremendous against Jordan Montgomery tonight. So
20:00therefore, I said, you got a legitimate five guys to take a
20:03look at. That's the reason why high numbers for these batters
20:06going to get the pitcher that's struggling against said
20:08batters from the right-hand side. And by the way, only one
20:10lefty anticipated in the lineup tonight for those Angels. And
20:15listen, Arizona needs to start winning some games but you can
20:17go to the RBI props. Yeah. As Donnie just alluded to, the
20:20reigning National League pennant winners in the D-backs,
20:23four games below 500 at this current point.