It's been a slow start to hurricane season, but a dip in the jet stream this week to the Southeast coast could bring the risk of development.
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00:00Hurricane season started officially June 1st. We haven't had a storm yet, and this is really the latest start of the hurricane season
00:07We've seen since 2014 that year we didn't have our first named storm, and it was Arthur until July 1st
00:152014 now
00:16Why is that been the case well?
00:19It's the pattern just hasn't been conducive for tropical development now this time of the year
00:24Where do you look for development three main basins Gulf of Mexico Northwest Caribbean Southeast Coast of the United States?
00:30It has nothing to do with water temperatures by the way the reason that we haven't had any activity water temperatures are well above where
00:37They should be
00:38There it's warm enough for development anyway, but it's even warmer than historical averages here
00:44This is our ocean temperature anomaly you start getting into the orange and yellows that means the water temperature is above normal
00:50So it has nothing to do with that
00:52Here's the problem, and this is the problem this time of the year
00:55We usually have too much dry air and too much wind shear
00:58Across the Atlantic Basin and you can see both here on the water vapor loop first of all you can see all the dry air
01:04Denoted by the yellow shading across the tropical Atlantic so all these tropical waves that are coming off Africa doesn't matter too much dry air
01:11also dry air right now in the Gulf of Mexico and off the southeast coast of the United States and
01:17There's a lot of wind shear winds coming in out of the west southwest or out of the west across the entire Atlantic Basin, so
01:25This is normal. This is why you don't see tropical development for the most part
01:29So you need something to overcome?
01:32These obstacles and how you overcome this obstacle is when you get the jet stream that comes south right?
01:38It's the interaction between the jet stream in the tropics that can start tropical
01:43Development by this dip in the jet stream bringing upper level lows or fronts over the warm water
01:48Then you can get showers and thunderstorms to develop and if low pressure could sit there
01:53With those showers and thunderstorms for a minimum of 48 hours you could overcome the wind shear and the dry air to get tropical
02:00Development now look what's going to happen later this week. We're going to get this energy across, Texas
02:05That's going to dive south and southeast
02:07What is that? What is that going to do eventually produce?
02:10What this dip in the jet stream, and it's dip in the jet stream that may produce the process of showers and thunderstorms?
02:17And that's why we have a low probability for development in the Gulf of Mexico late this week