The Lok Sabha election results have made it clear that the era of coalition politics is back. After the verdict, now is the time to analyse how did the BJP fail to achieve a singular majority despite its high decibel campaign of 400 paar. Did the politics of communalism fail to charge up the voters? What were the factors that worked in the favour of the INDIA bloc? Outlook tries to find out the answers through a conversation with political scientist and author Aditya Nigam.
Follow us:
Website: https://www.outlookindia.com/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Outlookindia
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/outlookindia/
X: https://twitter.com/Outlookindia
Whatsapp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaNrF3v0AgWLA6OnJH0R
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@OutlookMagazine
Dailymotion: https://www.dailymotion.com/outlookindia
#ReportersGuarantee #Elections #LokSabhaElections2024
Follow us:
Website: https://www.outlookindia.com/
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Outlookindia
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/outlookindia/
X: https://twitter.com/Outlookindia
Whatsapp: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaNrF3v0AgWLA6OnJH0R
Youtube: https://www.youtube.com/@OutlookMagazine
Dailymotion: https://www.dailymotion.com/outlookindia
#ReportersGuarantee #Elections #LokSabhaElections2024
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Hello and welcome to Outlook Live. We are now about nearing 3 o'clock and you know the
00:06numbers that we have right now seem to be around, BJP is hovering around, NDA is hovering
00:12around 300 mark and the opposition alliance is about 226, 228, that is at 3pm on 4th of
00:20June. So that's where we are right now. We are joined today here by Mr. Aditya Nigam.
00:27Thank you very much sir for joining. Aditya Nigam, as you all know, he is a political
00:31scientist, has written many books, he was formerly with CSDS and of course my colleague
00:38Abhik is here with me whom we have been discussing since the morning. So Aditya ji, how is it
00:44looking in the sense that it seemed that the first 3 phases went in a certain way and then
00:52suddenly when there was talk about the NDA not doing so well, the BJP being on the back
00:57foot etc and then the tide seems to have changed at least in the media and in the
01:02discourse that it's coming, it's come back. How do these results look to you now from
01:08what you have been analysing? Is it too much to what you had thought it would be like or
01:13is it a surprise to you? I am not actually at all surprised because the channels that
01:19I had been watching which were mainly the Hindi YouTube channels, they more or less
01:26got the drift of where the election was going despite whatever was going on in the mainstream
01:32electronic media and more or less from the very first phase itself, first round itself,
01:40they were very clear that drop in percentage of vote polled was largely going to affect
01:47the BJP because it was within BJP ruled states, BJP dominant areas and that the overall trend
01:56which was continued in the second phase also, the third phase more or less as Yogananda
02:00put it was more or less a draw between the two. But in the first two, they actually lost
02:08in terms of seats. That's the people who have actually been kind of watching elections
02:17closely over the years and people who are reporting from the ground. So I was not actually
02:22at all surprised. What you are saying about moving further from the third phase onwards,
02:29becoming even more consolidated, I think that part has helped in the sense that by that
02:34time, the pall of fear had also broken. People were much more openly talking about issues
02:44and things and the calculation which they had initially probably been trying to implement
02:50last two elections and that they spread it out over a long period to benefit the BJP,
02:56this time perhaps it went against them.
02:58But you know this recalibration by various parties, not only the BJP, even the opposition
03:04in the India bloc, was it very visible to you in their campaigning style, in the speeches
03:09they made in the last few phases, was there a discerning, say a certain narrative was
03:16being talked of?
03:20I would say the narrative actually started shifting from the Delhi elections 2020, where
03:29the AAP campaign determinedly stayed out of stepping on to their 80 versus 20. Their
03:39continuous effort over the past so many decades in fact has been to divide the electorate
03:46into 80-20, which would be the ideal situation for them. And then it was replicated with
03:51the Mahagadbandhan in Bihar, very narrowly lost because of the last minute marginal seats,
03:59especially with the electoral, the postal ballots suddenly being brought in at the end.
04:06Then replicated very successfully in Karnataka and of course Bengal has always had its own
04:11separate, they have not really got into this Hindu-Muslim thing in a very big way, whether
04:20it was TMC, Congress and left really don't matter right now. So I think that was consolidated
04:30also after Rahul Gandhi's Naya Yatra, Bharat Jodha Yatra and the Naya Yatra. That in a
04:37way Congress, which was the crucial player here, has learnt a lesson. In the past Congress
04:43would have actually stepped into it each time the provocation was made. If you remember
04:48the Gujarat election, the only reason why the rapists of Bilkis Bano were released was
04:56to turn the election into a referendum on 2002, again, once again. And in a way they
05:06kind of succeeded, partially succeeded because the opposition, the new opposition let's say
05:13AAP was very small and the Congress there did exactly what they were expected to.
05:18In fact this what you mentioned about 2020 Delhi elections with AAP, one sees that whenever
05:24in whichever state the opposition, whether it is the Congress or any other regional party
05:28to the BJP, it does not get into the turf of BJP, does not get into this Hindutva narrative
05:35for instance and fights its own, has its own story to tell of say unemployment in Bihar
05:42for instance, of corruption in Karnataka for election, in the Bombay elections, in
05:50the assembly elections. There the opposition, whichever like I said, whether it is a Congress
05:55or a regional party does seem to do well. It can take on the BJP in those states as
06:01long as they don't fight them on these areas.
06:05I will just add to it once that since Aam Aadmi Party's, the politics actually what
06:13welfareist politics that Aam Aadmi Party started, that was a transition from what actually BJP
06:19was doing and then was followed by different parties. But one thing I will add to that,
06:24that in some cases this welfareist politics worked in the last assembly elections if we
06:29look, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and others, in some cases it didn't. Why is it happening?
06:34On one case it is working, in the other case communal politics is working. What do you think?
06:39No, I think there is a problem with the way in which UP went about it later. I am specifically
06:45referring to UP because they, starting off with a very correct premise and focusing on
06:50education, health, water, electricity, eventually kind of got swayed into stepping into that
06:56turf in a different way by trying to do the soft Hindutva number. Now that is not, and
07:02they saw after Gujarat that actually that was a voters base they could not dent. They
07:09have not been able to dent it even in Delhi. After so many years of rule, Kejriwal being
07:14falsely put under arrest and so on, if they are still going to win 7 seats in Delhi, then
07:19obviously it shows a failure of that and I think the real mistake UP has made is to completely
07:30excise politics from its campaign. Only Sanjay Singh, probably the only one who talks politics.
07:37Rest of them are always only talking about Bijli, Paani, Sadak and so on and so forth,
07:41which is actually not enough. If you have to take the BJP on, it also has to be, and
07:47politics meaning not in Hindu-Muslim terms, politics meaning there are so many other issues
07:52right now.
07:53Yes, exactly. In this context I will just add one thing, as you were saying this depoliticization,
07:58sort of depoliticization is an effort by Aam Aadmi Party that we have seen. So, what
08:04is the alternative then? If like, because on one hand, except Sanjay Singh, nobody has
08:09been talking about it, the specific politics of the country in case of Aam Aadmi Party.
08:14In case of Congress, when we found out, definitely there is some political agenda and other things
08:18that have been spoken about, but still there is somewhere or other this whole thing is
08:23reduced to giving freebies, that what they are calling freebies and giving specifically
08:298,500 rupees a month and all these things. So, how is it actually playing? Is it going
08:37to, because the talk of job generation, inflation, GDP, these are not the things that are coming
08:44into actually discussion.
08:47Right, I think actually on that, I noticed in some of Rahul's speeches, he actually made
08:53quite an impact. So, while he was talking about giving so much money directly into the
08:59accounts and so on, he didn't stop there. In fact, in one of his speeches, I think in
09:03Lucknow, he was very clear that this money will give you more to spend, which will actually
09:10increase demand, which will actually lead to more industry, more growth. And the emphasis
09:18of course, very importantly was on medium and small industries. But the thing is, and
09:23that's where employment is. Employment is not in the big sector. And with AI now, it's
09:29even reducing further. So, really, if you're talking of employment, you're talking of medium
09:34and small enterprises. And that, because of his continuous focus, A, on GST, and the wrong
09:42way in which GST was implemented is how he puts it. And the other thing is that the fact
09:47that you have completely been, the purchasing power, your disposable income has completely
09:52been taken away from you. So, this is a way of actually replenishing, so that you have
10:00more purchasing power in your hand. I think that somewhere he's actually made that connection,
10:07which in a sense, AAP did not. Politics of economics is also important.
10:15The other big story, I think, as of now, I mean, it may all change, it's still early
10:19days, but as of now, the other big story from today's results is this that, you know, the
10:25southern states, the south of the country, still remains a citadel which the BJP is not
10:30able to penetrate. You know, they may win, I think, after a long time, one seat in Kerala.
10:35I think, Trishul, Suresh, was leading last I saw by quite a few seats. But even then,
10:42apart from that, in Tamil Nadu, we'll come to Karnataka a little later. That's a different
10:46story. But, you know, the southern states are still holding out. They're not, despite,
10:52you know, a lot of effort by the RSS, by the BJP to penetrate into even tribal areas,
10:59far-flung villages. How do you read that in that sense?
11:06See, I think the south is a different country. If you ask me, we're just historically together,
11:12it's a different country. Because, starting from language, linguistic, cultural ethos
11:21and so on, from the eating habits, from what you eat, I mean, it's different in Bengal also.
11:26But I think it is much less amenable to this kind of upper caste, Brahminical, North Indian Hinduism.
11:37Also because of such strong Dravidian and Dalit movements from those areas.
11:42Yes, yes, yes. So, Dravidian movement is a very important part so far as Tamil Nadu is concerned.
11:47But in case of Kerala, for example, the lower caste movements have been very strong.
11:53The left also has had a contribution to make in that sense. But, for example, come on.
12:00Now, when you try to go and tell the people of Kerala that Onam is about Vaman, then definitely it's going to work.
12:08It's not. It's a festival where actually Bali Raja comes to meet his former subject.
12:15And Aditya Onam was in Kerala with such a mixed religious composition. Everybody celebrated Onam.
12:23Yes, you transform it into a kind of upper caste Brahminical Hindutva discourse, it's not going to work.
12:30So, that's I think what has happened in most of the southern states. Karnataka is a weak link here.
12:38It's a different state actually. I mean, you know, compared to Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala, also Karnataka is a little...
12:46I mean, you know, it's borders with Maharashtra, you know, there's a lot of...
12:50And because of Lingayat votes, one of the major factors that always...
12:53Because the strongman, BJP strongman B. S. Yadureyappa's emergence was dependent on this Lingayat politics.
12:59And last time when even Karnataka assumed the elections, it was because BJP didn't give enough emphasis on B. S. Yadureyappa
13:06that the situation certainly changed. This time even we can see, we don't have the data yet.
13:11When CSDS will come up with the data, we'll get to know that whether Volkega and this whole Lingayat community have voted for Bajpa.
13:18So, there lies... and except that, what are the other things in Karnataka that you think that BJP certainly gained from?
13:25No, this is where BJP was successful actually. Lingayats were the ones, 12th century, they break away from mainstream Hindutva.
13:31They break away on the question of caste. The success lies in having got them in, back in, in a certain sense, into the fold.
13:39So, that is something which is unstable. I am not saying that they are going to be permanently successful with this
13:45because Lingayat's identity itself is quite strong and there is a kind of pull to the other direction also.
13:53But I think, over the years, I believe in coastal Karnataka, they have been very active.
13:59They have also kind of used this anti-Christian, anti-Muslim. Large parts of Karnataka are quite cosmopolitan actually.
14:08Yes, yes, exactly.
14:09So, in fact, this Lingayat question also, I think they have actually, they have ridden on the leaders.
14:15You know, there are a few, you know, like Yadurappa. I don't think, even in those regions, the common people have that kind of a connect, you know, with the right wing party.
14:28But in coastal Karnataka, definitely, they have a, you know, there is, I think they are very strong.
14:33And it's been decades of work without any challenge. The main problem is that wherever there has been no challenge over the years, you see, we have left it.
14:40I mean, we, I am talking of a larger we, it's not any particular party.
14:45But they have been working at it in these regions for a very, very long time, poisoning young men, and their strategy is to poison young minds.
14:56They get them very young.
14:58Is it because that coastal Karnataka has a formidable minority population that it is possible for them to do it?
15:04Because this religious, wherever there is religious minority in formidable population, if we look at Uttar Pradesh with 20% population, Bengal 27%, in coastal Karnataka there is huge percentage.
15:14So, is it like that, that they need that otherization for like…
15:17It could be. It's possible because actually there is, at some point, it also becomes a struggle over resources, right?
15:23It becomes, it can be at least presented the way Modi did in his speeches.
15:28It was not funny, I mean, we may laugh at it, but it was actually, yeah, that they will take away, ek bhaise leke udhar de denge, I mean, it was ridiculous.
15:37Exactly.
15:38But it was playing on the same kind of…
15:40And, you know, coastal Karnataka also, it's a very, it's quite complex.
15:44You know, the minority question, you know, there are a whole lot of, it's not a, you know, homogeneous…
15:49Yeah.
15:50There are a lot of Muslims who are very well off, you know, who are the traders, you know, who are the, and who employ, you know, the Hindus as, you know, labor, etc.
16:00So, there is, it's quite a complex thing because, you know, their trade goes back a long way.
16:05Long way, yeah.
16:06You know, with the Muslim traders there.
16:08Right.
16:09So, that, but then the results in this elections are, it's not exactly, I mean, it's not what the exit polls predicted or what the…
16:16No, not at all.
16:17Not at all.
16:19Karnataka also in some ways, you know, has shown that this can only work so much, maybe.
16:25Yes, yes, yes.
16:26I think Karnataka is still very hopeful because there is a lot of, I mean, the shift from 2019 is what we have to look at in terms of the parliament election.
16:37Exactly, yeah.
16:38And, in a sense, the defeat of BJP in the assembly elections has had that impact at least.
16:44True.
16:45True, true, true.
16:47And even perhaps Mallika Arjun Khargi belonging to Karnataka, that even affected.
16:51I believe a Dalit leader from Karnataka leading Congress, that even affected, I guess, the results.
16:55But, you know, we thought that Maharashtra and Karnataka are going to be the so-called swing states, let's say, you know, which are going to decide.
17:03But that has turned out to be quite true.
17:06But the other addition to it is Uttar Pradesh.
17:08Yes, yes.
17:09That is, in fact, the…
17:10That is something very interesting.
17:11I mean, that is the most interesting result really for me.
17:13Yeah.
17:14I don't think anybody gave Akhilesh this kind of, you know…
17:17Yes, that's even…
17:18Yeah, because it was, some way or other, it was totally Yogi Adityanath's huge popularity as it has been portrayed.
17:27You know, two big developments have taken place in UP, which… or rather three.
17:32The third one is a slightly more subterranean level.
17:36The first one, of course, with the farmer's struggle among the Jats, who were 2013 onwards, after the Kairana riots.
17:44Yeah.
17:45They were thoroughly communalized and the last election they had voted for the BJP.
17:51This time, after the farmer's struggle, and the entire Jat belt, so to speak, both Western UP and Haryana, turned totally against them.
18:01Now, with RLDs dilly-dallying and kind of playing around with the, playing along with the BJP and so on,
18:09it dissuaded some section of Jat voters to the extent that they did not go and vote at all, but they would not vote for the BJP.
18:16That was one big thing.
18:17The second thing was, and this is very interesting again, coming…
18:22Initially, I thought, the Rajput revolt inside UP.
18:27Yes, yes.
18:28So, in Kairana, they had, and a couple of other places, they had their Mahapanchads, where they publicly, openly said, we will defeat, took a vow to defeat the BJP.
18:36Yes, they will not support, yeah.
18:38Yes.
18:39To the extent, now, first, initially, somebody told me, and I was kind of inclined to take that seriously, that this Rajput thing is also partly egged on by Yogi.
18:51But, when asked directly, who they would vote for, the Kairana Mahapanchad, they said, we will vote for Ikrahasan.
19:02Now, that is not a Yogi supporter.
19:05Yes, yes.
19:06That's the case.
19:07Yeah, that's the case.
19:09So, that was actually something else, something deeper had shifted in me.
19:14Absolutely, you know, in the whole elections, I think, this, as opposed to 2019, you know, another big story is that how it is these local issues, in various states, which have mattered far more than, you know, some big national narrative.
19:28Instead of any meta-narrative, like, they couldn't build up.
19:31My friend, Nakul Saini, who runs this Chalchitra Abhiyan, and they have been kind of documenting the whole Western UP political scene from 2005, when he made Muzaffarnagar, onwards.
19:46He, I have been talking to him through this campaign, etc., and his point was that these, even in the hardcore of the West UP judgment, issues of Delhi's AAP government have actually caught the imagination of the people there.
20:12They want better education, they want hospitals, and so on and so forth.
20:16They are not satisfied with this.
20:18Yes.
20:19Iqra Hasan was actually raising these issues.
20:22She was not getting into any of the other issues.
20:24She was raising local, but these are not just local issues.
20:28These are also issues that go beyond the immediate, my road, my…
20:33It has resonance beyond the spatial limitation of it.
20:37And the third undercurrent in UP, which was more of an undercurrent, but which happened mainly after the election, the constitution scare, after this statement by BJP leaders that if we get 400…
20:53They will change the constitution, yeah.
20:55That actually created a strong scare, if you could use that word, among the Dalit and backward…
21:04So it reached actually marginalized communities.
21:06It did.
21:07I mean, those speeches went apparently circulated throughout these WhatsApp circulations.
21:13Yeah.
21:14See, I think we are ending the year of our time.
21:16But you know, I want to ask you, Babban, what happens now, if this is roughly what it will end at, say 300 odd for NDA with BJP?
21:24And even opposition, sort of 240, 230 opposition.
21:28It's like we don't know yet and say BJP is say around 240, does not, nowhere near 272, the majority mark.
21:36How do you foresee the new government to be, you know, what are the changes that will happen from the last five years?
21:48See, at one level it's too early to say because as far as the opposition is concerned, we know.
21:56We know that a government which is dependent on allies, an NDA government which is dependent on allies,
22:03whichever BJP does not have its own majority, will of course not, cannot replicate what it did in the last two terms.
22:11Yes.
22:12But I think we have to watch the next 24 hours because Naive should be out in BJP itself.
22:18Yes.
22:19Now that his position is weakened and there has been a building resentment against the Gujarat lobby, i.e. the two, the two in charge here.
22:32And there is actually nobody worth the name left.
22:36So you think that one, you know, the troubles within the BJP might, you know, each one of those factions may sort of start raising their voices
22:44and also the allies, you know, who are partnering with them, they'll also be, you know, they'll be stronger now too.
22:50I mean, they're not going to be these timid allies.
22:53Yeah, they will certainly be stronger but I will be actually more interested in knowing what, you know,
22:58the non-Gujarat leaders of the BJP who have been sidelined have the backing of the RSS.
23:07I mean, RSS leaders are themselves quite pissed about the fact that in the 10 years this man never went, never found the time to go and meet them.
23:17He generally sidelined them also.
23:19This was the first time, after the first round, when he realized that things were getting bad,
23:23was when he, after first, in 10 years, for the first time he tried to go and meet these people and obviously failed.
23:30So all those will start to rise.
23:32I think, yes, something has to, how it will shape up, we don't know.
23:36People are saying they might prop up Gadkari and so on but I don't know.
23:40That is, yeah, that is a matter of speculation.
23:42Too speculative, yes.
23:44Thank you very much.
23:45You have anything to add?
23:46No, no, no.
23:47Thanks a lot.
23:48We are running out of time.
23:49Thanks a lot.
23:50It was a pleasure talking to you.
23:51Thank you.
23:52Thank you so much.
23:53This was so nice.
23:54Thank you for watching.