EXCLUSIVE: Lok Sabha results are out. And they are not even remotely close to what Exit Polls had predicted. Activist Yogendra Yadav had however predicted a different outcome last week. According to Yadav, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) was set to face significant losses, with their seat count expected to fall below the crucial 272-mark required for a majority. Yadav had predicted BJP's tally could plummet to around 250 seats or even dip below 230, indicating a substantial shift in the political landscape. One India spoke to Yogendra Yadav and asked him how did he manage to predict the near-exact numbers in Lok Sabha polls. Watch.
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#loksabharesult #YogendraYadav #ExitPollVsFinalResult #ExitPollPrediction #MallikarjunKharge #CongressPressConference #RahulGandhi #Modi #Adani #CongressPressConference #Congress #CongressCelebrations #RahulGandhi #SP #UPResult #AkhileshYadav #loksabharesult2024 #loksabharesultlive #electionresults2024 #electionresultslive #liveelectionresult #electionresults2024live #electionresultsanalysis #liveelectionresult2024 s#electionresultsnow #electionresult #electionresulttoday #2024elections #2024loksabhaelection2024 #2024electionresult #chunavresult #loksabhaelection2024 #loksabha2024 #bjp #congress #pmmodi #narendramodi #rahulgandhi #electionbreaking #electionnews #election2024
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NewsTranscript
00:00Namaskar, welcome to OneIndia.
00:02I am your host, Yogesh Ranta.
00:04With me is my co-host, Pankaj Mishra.
00:06And today we have a special guest with us
00:09with whom we will talk about the election
00:12and especially about the exit poll
00:15that came just before the election.
00:17We will talk about that,
00:18and what the situation is after the election,
00:20what the results are,
00:22we will also talk about this.
00:23We have a special guest with us,
00:25Yogendra Yadav,
00:26who is a social worker,
00:28an election strategist,
00:29and the founding president of Swaraj India,
00:32Yogendra Yadav.
00:34Thank you.
00:58Thank you.
01:23Allow me to begin with a disclaimer.
01:26I'm not a sociologist.
01:27I used to be one in my previous birth.
01:29That's about 10 years ago.
01:31I gave it up.
01:32I have no intention of being a sociologist
01:35or a soothsayer of any kind.
01:37As a political worker,
01:39I was doing a job,
01:41which is an important job,
01:44that is to say,
01:45to puncture a false narrative
01:48that was being created in the country.
01:50And it's not just...
01:51So the fact that the final figures that I gave,
01:54240 to 260 for BJP,
01:56and the numbers for India
01:58happen to have come more or less correct.
02:01To my mind,
02:02that's a bit of a fluke.
02:04You know,
02:05you make multiple errors
02:06and those errors cancel each other out
02:08and the figure looks stunningly good.
02:10These things happen.
02:11To me,
02:12that's not the most important thing.
02:14I believe my real contribution,
02:16the small contribution that I made
02:18was that throughout the campaign,
02:20I kept pointing to a reality
02:23which was out there in the open.
02:25Anyone could have seen it,
02:27but no one was willing to talk about it.
02:30So I said,
02:31not before elections,
02:33on 26th April,
02:35after the first round was over
02:37and second was about to begin,
02:39I said,
02:40Uttar Pradesh mein
02:41Rajnetik puchaal aane wala hai.
02:43I did it.
02:45I gave my reasoning
02:46and I invited everyone to check it.
02:48No one bothered to check.
02:50The media rhetoric went
02:52the way it usually does.
02:54Then with every phase,
02:56I kept pointing to the fact
02:58that in a very large geography,
03:01BJP was systematically losing votes and seats.
03:04I did say that BJP will gain
03:07in the coastal regions.
03:09My impression throughout the last two months
03:12was that BJP's gains in the coastal region
03:15would be to the tune of 15 seats or so.
03:18Finally,
03:19BJP turned out to be about 22-23.
03:22I kept seeing that their losses
03:25in that territory
03:27from Karnataka and Maharashtra
03:29till Bihar,
03:30the losses would be at least 65-70.
03:33The losses turned out to be
03:35a little more than that actually.
03:37Now this is a simple political reality.
03:39This is not deep syphology.
03:41This is not some real secret thing.
03:46And my real question is,
03:48how is it that the media,
03:50pollsters, and everyone
03:52miss this very simple reality?
03:54The example I kept saying
03:56was very simply this.
03:58When you touch it,
04:00you can tell it's a fever.
04:02The thermometer tells you
04:04it's 101.2 or 200.
04:07You can make a mistake.
04:09But you can't see it's a fever.
04:11Why can't I see this?
04:12I don't understand.
04:13This is where the question arises,
04:16which you yourself pointed out.
04:18Why couldn't the rest of the people
04:19see this?
04:20Because all the numbers
04:22that were coming in,
04:23almost all of them
04:25were 99% in the same direction.
04:27What is this?
04:29The samples that are collected,
04:30is there a mistake in that?
04:31Is there a mistake in the data?
04:32Is there a mistake in its interpretation?
04:34Or was there something else
04:35going on behind the scenes?
04:38You are right.
04:39This is not just about the exit poll.
04:42It doesn't make much difference
04:44to me.
04:46Because by then,
04:47the votes have already been cast.
04:48The exit poll only affects
04:49the satta market.
04:51It affects the share market.
04:53And to be honest,
04:54I have nothing to do
04:55with either of these.
04:56I mean,
04:57it doesn't matter to me.
04:59But what worries me the most
05:02is that before the elections,
05:04two months ago,
05:06the Prime Minister
05:07played the bong 400 times.
05:10And the entire media
05:12started playing the bong 400 times.
05:14400 times, 400 times.
05:15If Modi comes, it's Modi.
05:16If Modi is there, it's possible.
05:18I mean,
05:19all these people
05:20are Modi's spokespersons.
05:22And many times,
05:23I'm sorry,
05:24I felt this many times
05:26on the channels.
05:27I stopped going there.
05:29I thought,
05:30why do they make
05:31a poor BJP spokesperson?
05:32The anchor himself
05:33is more of a BJP spokesperson
05:34than them.
05:35So, they played the bong 400 times.
05:38400 times.
05:39After that,
05:40before the elections,
05:41when the opinion polls came,
05:42everyone said
05:43that BJP is going to
05:44do an amazing performance.
05:46BJP,
05:47someone showed 320,
05:48someone showed 370,
05:49one showed 411.
05:51I mean,
05:52in general,
05:53before the elections
05:54in the country,
05:55the atmosphere was made
05:56that,
05:57now BJP has won,
05:58now only the formality is left.
06:00And then,
06:01during the entire election period,
06:03when there was a ban
06:04on opinion polls,
06:05at that time,
06:06the media
06:07broadcasted
06:08the same bong.
06:09This,
06:10I think,
06:11is a small thing.
06:12If the exit poll is wrong,
06:13that is a small thing.
06:14Before voting,
06:15the impression
06:16that was made
06:17in the mind of the voter,
06:18that he will come,
06:19this is very dangerous.
06:20And this
06:21caused a lot of loss.
06:22Okay.
06:23Okay.
06:24Yogendra,
06:25what was it
06:26in your opinion,
06:27from your understanding,
06:28which BJP
06:29failed to read
06:30or maybe
06:31miscalculated?
06:32Was it
06:33the public sentiment?
06:34As you said,
06:35there is fever.
06:36They must have
06:37also known.
06:38Whether you
06:39call it
06:40gossip,
06:41a bit more
06:42than they could
06:43chew.
06:44Still,
06:45the figures
06:46that came,
06:47I don't think
06:48BJP had
06:49or was
06:50expecting it.
06:51Where was it
06:52wrong?
06:53This happens
06:54with dictators
06:55all over the world.
06:56They think
06:57that everything
06:58can be said.
06:59And what happens
07:00is that
07:01once you make
07:02the public
07:03fool,
07:04the second time
07:05you make them
07:06fool.
07:07After that,
07:08the public
07:09will forget.
07:10Taken for granted.
07:11Pardon?
07:12Taken for granted.
07:13Sorry.
07:14Yes.
07:15You tell the
07:16public
07:17that
07:18demonetization
07:19is good.
07:20Give me 50 days.
07:21After that,
07:22hang me from the
07:23pole.
07:24The public
07:25will forget.
07:26Tell them
07:27that we will
07:28double the
07:29farmer's income.
07:30Don't even
07:31answer later.
07:32The public
07:33will forget.
07:34So,
07:35this complete
07:36conceit
07:37and
07:38hubris
07:39put together
07:40creates a
07:41situation
07:42in which
07:43undemocratic
07:44or rulers
07:45with undemocratic
07:46bent of mind
07:47tend to believe
07:48that they can
07:49spin anything
07:50around.
07:51And with media
07:52in your body,
07:53it was very
07:54easy for them
07:55to believe.
07:56What is the
07:57media?
07:58Call me at 3
07:59in the evening
08:00and spread this news.
08:01Who has the
08:02courage to
08:03speak against us?
08:04After this,
08:05the signals
08:06will come.
08:07You will
08:08tell them to
08:09leave it.
08:10What difference
08:11does it make?
08:12Manage it.
08:13Everything
08:14can be managed.
08:15This is
08:16what happened.
08:17It can't be
08:18that BJP
08:19politicians
08:20couldn't see
08:21that inflation
08:22is a question.
08:23Unemployment
08:24is such a
08:25terrible
08:26problem
08:27in this
08:28country.
08:29In this
08:30country,
08:31inequality
08:32is a
08:33question.
08:34People
08:35don't
08:36have
08:37a good
08:38message.
08:39Electoral
08:40bonds
08:41are a
08:42problem.
08:43But
08:44there is
08:45pride
08:46that
08:47everything
08:48can be
08:49managed.
08:50This
08:51is what
08:52happened
08:53with
08:54Mrs.
08:55Gandhi
08:56in
08:571977.
08:58One
08:59question
09:00comes from
09:01this.
09:02The
09:03numbers
09:04that
09:05we have
09:06got,
09:07do you
09:08think
09:09there will
09:10be a
09:11change
09:12in their
09:13politics?
09:14Will
09:15there be
09:16a change
09:17in their
09:18methods?
09:19Even
09:20if the
09:21government
09:22makes them?
09:23It
09:24didn't
09:25seem like
09:26that until
09:27last evening.
09:28Listen to
09:29their speech
09:30last evening.
09:31It
09:32seemed like
09:33they were
09:34talking
09:35about
09:36politics.
09:37They
09:38were
09:39talking
09:40about
09:41politics.
09:42They
09:43were
09:44talking
09:45about
09:46politics.
09:47They
09:48were
09:49talking
09:50about
09:51politics.
09:52They
09:53were
09:54talking
09:55about
09:56politics.
09:57They
09:58were
09:59talking
10:00about
10:01politics.
10:02They
10:03were
10:04talking
10:05about
10:06politics.
10:07They
10:08were
10:09talking
10:10about
10:11politics.
10:12They
10:13were
10:14talking
10:15about
10:16politics.
10:17They
10:18were
10:19talking
10:20about
10:21politics.
10:22They
10:23were
10:24talking
10:25about
10:26politics.
10:27They
10:28were
10:29talking
10:30about
10:31politics.
10:32They
10:33were
10:34talking
10:35about
10:36politics.
10:37They
10:38were
10:39talking
10:40about
10:41politics.
10:42They
10:43were
10:44talking
10:45about
10:46politics.
10:47They
10:48were
10:49talking
10:50about
10:51politics.
10:52They
10:53were
10:54talking
10:55about
10:56politics.
10:57They
10:58were
10:59talking
11:00about
11:01politics.
11:02They
11:03were
11:04talking
11:05about
11:06politics.
11:07They
11:08were
11:09talking
11:10about
11:11politics.
11:12They
11:13were
11:14talking
11:15about
11:16politics.
11:17They
11:18were
11:19talking
11:20about
11:21politics.
11:22They
11:23were
11:24talking
11:25about
11:26politics.
11:27They
11:28were
11:29talking
11:30about
11:31politics.
11:32They
11:33were
11:34talking
11:35about
11:36politics.
11:37They
11:38were
11:39talking
11:40about
11:41politics.
11:42They
11:43were
11:44talking
11:45about
11:46politics.
11:47They
11:48were
11:49talking
11:50about
11:51politics.
11:52They
11:53were
11:54talking
11:55about
11:56politics.
11:57They
11:58were
11:59talking
12:00about
12:01politics.
12:02They
12:03were
12:04talking
12:05about
12:06politics.
12:07They
12:08were
12:09talking
12:10about
12:11politics.
12:12They
12:13were
12:14talking
12:15about
12:16politics.
12:17They
12:18were
12:19talking
12:20about
12:21politics.
12:22They
12:23were
12:24talking
12:25about
12:26politics.
12:27They
12:28were
12:29talking
12:30about
12:31politics.
12:32They
12:33were
12:34talking
12:35about
12:36politics.
12:37They
12:38were
12:39lecturing
12:40organizations
12:41who
12:42had
12:43crafted
12:44commentaries
12:45on
12:46high
12:47level
12:48topics.
12:49There
12:50were
12:51confenses
12:53conducted
12:54by authorities
12:55who
12:56world, where the ruling party has infinitely more money than the opposition, there's absolutely
13:02no comparison, where all the institutions, administration, police, ED, IT, and unfortunately,
13:13even the election commission was acting as karakatas of the BJP, in that context, if
13:19the opposition gets 235, I would see this as 335. It's a great achievement, both on
13:27the part of Congress and Samajwadi party and all the opposition parties. However, I would
13:33guard against complacency. I would say that, yes, in very adverse situation, they have
13:40done this, but they could have done better. The opposition alliance could have issued
13:45its own manifesto, could have given some kind of a, you know, five point charter to
13:51the country, which Congress did, but the entire opposition alliance could not. The seat adjustment
13:57and seat sharing was postponed till the very last minute, which ended up creating very
14:01bad blood and very bad media, which was only waiting to capture all this. And the kind
14:07of synergy that we witnessed in Uttar Pradesh after the third round is a synergy, if you
14:13have seen it from the first five phase, everywhere in the country, we may have been looking at
14:20opposition fairly close to 270 rather than 235. And we could have been looking at a very,
14:25very different outcome. So yes, there are, there were some weaknesses as well, which
14:30need to be worked upon.
14:33I would like to add a question to this, that Nitish Kumar, who started the alliance in a way,
14:41did he make a mistake later that Nitish Kumar got separated from that alliance? If he had
14:47stayed together, then perhaps the situation in Bihar would have been different.
14:50Look, applause is saved by two hands. So it is obvious that there were no mistakes on both sides.
14:56Nitish Kumar's overnight reversal, Nitish Kumar, who is a treacherous leader,
15:04puts a lot of pressure on his image. The kind of image he has created,
15:09people have started calling him Paltu Ram. It will be very difficult for him to recover from that.
15:14So it is obvious that he is weak. But at the same time, somewhere, the other allies of Kathmandu,
15:22on their behalf, when you run such an alliance, then you have to think about everyone's feelings,
15:27everyone's ambitions, all kinds of things and adjust it accordingly.
15:32There must have been a shortage in that. And this is a lesson for the coming days,
15:36for the India Coalition, that you have to run this coalition very intelligently,
15:43keeping everyone together, otherwise there will be a problem.
15:47There is one more question related to this, because you are looking at the entire politics.
15:51You have also contributed to the India Coalition. You are looking at the politics of the Congress,
15:56you have been looking at the politics of the BJP for years.
15:59Especially in the politics of the Congress, during these elections,
16:02what difference did you see in their leadership, in their strategy,
16:07which was perhaps very different from 2014 or 2019?
16:11There were two big changes. I give credit to Rahul Gandhi for both of them.
16:16And there is a third change for which Mr. Khadge should be credited.
16:22First, in 2022, after the success of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh,
16:28where there was such a hopeless environment and everyone felt that they would have to take the Hindu-Turkish wicket and do politics.
16:35In such a situation, Rahul Gandhi announced that he would not do politics in between them.
16:41And the India Coalition was a very big announcement of this, that we can do something different.
16:47This is a matter of great courage. Very few people have such a character that Rahul Gandhi described.
16:53Secondly, the India Coalition journey and the five big announcements that took place,
16:59for the five members of Congress, women, youth, Dalits, poor, laborers,
17:09it was a kind of re-attempt to connect with the members of Congress.
17:16The women and leadership of the Congress were separated from the members of Congress.
17:20It was an attempt to bring them back. Rahul Gandhi should be credited for this.
17:24And thirdly, after the arrival of Mallika Arjun Khadge,
17:28there was a kind of collective effort in Congress.
17:32The boardroom is working, some work should be done.
17:36The kind of things that happen in the BJP.
17:38A part of that came with the arrival of Mallika Arjun Khadge.
17:43And all this helped Congress to go from 52 to 99.
17:47I feel that the amount of work that is required to go from 52 to 99,
17:55the amount of hard work that is required to go from 50 to 100,
17:57with the same amount of hard work, you can go from 100 to 250.
18:01And this is the lesson of Congress.
18:03It is commendable and it is an election.
18:05Right.
18:07One final question before we let you go.
18:09June 8th is anticipated to be the day when Narendra Modi will be taking oath as the Prime Minister.
18:17I mean, that's what the sources are telling so far and the reports are also saying.
18:21Do you think that by June 8th or before that,
18:25and I would like to know from your sheer political experience,
18:29the way you have seen it over the period of years,
18:31two parties, JDU and TTP, are still in the headlines.
18:35Delhi has also come to meet Chandra Babu Naidu.
18:37Chandra Babu Naidu and Nitish Kumar.
18:39What do you think?
18:41Will we see any changes?
18:43As we are hearing, as we are reading,
18:45that India Alliance will be strengthened.
18:49Look, I am not a very good expert on what happens in the streets of politics.
18:55I don't know these things.
18:57I am very stupid about all these things.
18:59But my basic understanding is that something or the other will happen.
19:03And you know what happens.
19:05There is a link between the government and the public.
19:07There is also a link between the chair.
19:09Private jets also come from Bombay.
19:11Private jets also bring their own suitcases.
19:13There are all kinds of things.
19:15The government will be saved.
19:17The most important thing for me is what will happen to the government.
19:21This government...
19:23Look, the government is running on Iqbal.
19:25On the fact that the public is with us.
19:29And what we are doing is not just my voice.
19:33It is not just my voice.
19:35It is not just my technical right.
19:37It is a matter of the public as well.
19:39This time, the government will run on Iqbal.
19:43The government will run on Iqbal.
19:45Without Iqbal.
19:47And without Iqbal, legitimacy, hegemony, dominance,
19:51that will be reduced.
19:53And that is very good news for democracy.
19:55Exactly.
19:57I will extend this question to you for two minutes.
20:01You talked about Iqbal.
20:03And for democracy,
20:05these results have been a very pleasant experience.
20:09So, from today,
20:11or after the formation of the government,
20:13are you seeing any changes in India's political and social development?
20:17The state of civil society that we have seen in the last 10 years.
20:21Are these results a sign of change?
20:25I can see 4-5 changes.
20:27First of all,
20:29the opposition will be a little stronger.
20:33There will be some debate within the parliament.
20:35We will have to listen to it.
20:37When 250 people are sitting together,
20:39we will have to listen to it.
20:41Third,
20:43your media partners,
20:45the big media houses that run in this country,
20:47they may start working with 2-4 degrees of honesty.
20:51They will also lose a little bit of their voice.
20:53This will be a very good thing.
20:55Fourth,
20:57the judiciary,
20:59the judiciary will also start studying the laws and constitution carefully.
21:05And fifth,
21:07the people's movements,
21:09the civil society,
21:11the protests,
21:13all of this will be stronger.
21:15And their strength is the firmest guarantee of democracy in the country.
21:19In this regard,
21:21I feel that this decision,
21:23will make the democracy of this country stronger than before.
21:27The dangers of democracy
21:29will be avoided.
21:31It is deep.
21:33This is why I feel that this is a very beautiful day.
21:35And I say this in Hindi,
21:37this is the victory of democracy.
21:39This should be saluted.
21:41If you have time,
21:43I would like to ask you one more question.
21:45Yes,
21:47don't make it short.
21:49This is Narendra Modi's
21:51question about the politics of his future.
21:53Or about his political career in the future.
21:57As it was said between BJP and RSS,
21:59that things are going on.
22:01So after this mandate,
22:03how do you see his political future?
22:07I don't know these things very well.
22:09No one in the world knows what he thinks.
22:11I think that
22:13if there was a real traitor,
22:15a leader like Nehru,
22:17with whom he wants to compare himself again and again,
22:19he would have resigned today.
22:21He would have said,
22:23I didn't even do 272.
22:25I asked for 400.
22:27You didn't even do 272.
22:29I think you want to give someone else a chance.
22:31But Modi will do this.
22:33No one believes this.
22:35I don't see any faith in your faces.
22:37That Modi will take such a political step.
22:39This means that everyone in this country
22:41has some doubt.
22:43Regarding politics.
22:45It seems very difficult for anyone in this country
22:47to be a politician.
22:49The result of this
22:51can be that
22:53if you are running a government
22:55without an Iqbal.
22:57Modi is there,
22:59but there is no decency.
23:01Then slowly,
23:03this entire tyranny of Modi
23:05will break
23:07one day.
23:09Believe me.
23:11In a year or two,
23:13this situation can arise
23:15when you see Modi's face on TV
23:17and on the channel.
23:19This happened with
23:21big dictators.
23:23When he left,
23:25he was very humiliated.
23:27If Modi had not done this,
23:29maybe it would have been better for him.
23:31Mr. Yogindra Yadav,
23:33you have said it all. Thank you so much.
23:35I think the kind of figures
23:37that are with the NDA this time,
23:39Yogesh will have to
23:41listen to his alliance partners
23:43and give them the same priority.
23:45And as Mr. Yogindra said,
23:47there will be a very strong
23:49and formidable opposition team.
23:51Mr. Yadav.
23:53How far will
23:55Shah and Narendra Modi
23:57go together?
23:59How long will the NDA's family
24:01stay together?
24:03Thank you very much, Mr. Yogindra,
24:05for taking the time to talk to One India.
24:07Thank you.