'Furiosa' And 'Garfield' Race For The Number One Spot In The Box Office

Forbes

Matt Craig a reporter at Forbes, joins Forbes talks to break down the disappointing holiday weekend box office.   Subscribe to FORBES: https://www.youtube.com/user/Forbes?sub_confirmation=1  Fuel your success with Forbes. Gain unlimited access to premium journalism, including breaking news, groundbreaking in-depth reported stories, daily digests and more. Plus, members get a front-row seat at members-only events with leading thinkers and doers, access to premium video that can help you get ahead, an ad-light experience, early access to select products including NFT drops and more:  https://account.forbes.com/membership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=growth_non-sub_paid_subscribe_ytdescript  Stay Connected Forbes newsletters: https://newsletters.editorial.forbes.com Forbes on Facebook: http://fb.com/forbes Forbes Video on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/forbes Forbes Video on Instagram: http://instagram.com/forbes More From Forbes:  http://forbes.com  Forbes covers the intersection of entrepreneurship, wealth, technology, business and lifestyle with a focus on people and success.

Transcript

00:00 Hi, everybody. I'm Alexis Noriega. I'm a producer here at Forbes. I'm joined now by Matt Craig,

00:07 a reporter who's going to help me break down the box office. So I want to kind of start

00:12 off and I want to talk about Furiosa. So Furiosa had a big, big price tag on it. It was $168

00:19 million budget and it was projected to kind of make around $45 million. Can you break

00:24 down how the holiday weekend went for Furiosa?

00:27 Yes. Yeah, I saw tracking around $42, $45 million opening for them. It only made about

00:35 $32 million domestically, added another $32 million overseas. But that's way less than

00:42 what we traditionally see Memorial Day weekend being a big release weekend on the movie calendar.

00:49 Last year, Little Mermaid made like $119 million in the same weekend. Two years ago, Top Gun

00:55 Maverick made $160 million. So we're talking orders of magnitude more than Furiosa. Even

01:01 in 2021, A Quiet Place Part Two made in the high 50s and that was still during the pandemic.

01:08 So I think the point to make here, I mean, it is very disappointing for Warner Brothers.

01:12 This was I went to CinemaCon a few months ago and this was like one of the movies they're

01:16 rolling out is, you know, their big releases for the year. So they're definitely disappointed

01:21 with this. The movie will not make its money back for sure. But I think the bigger point

01:25 to make here is that the movies coming out or I guess the lack thereof. I mean, anyone

01:31 could tell you that Furiosa would not make as much money as The Little Mermaid or Top

01:35 Gun Maverick or A Quiet Place Part Two. And so I think really the bigger point is the

01:40 way that last year's Actors and Writers strikes have really chokeholded the supply line of

01:47 movies coming out. And now the theme that you hear all the studios saying and all the

01:52 theater chain saying is survive to 25. Like we just have to get through this year. This

01:57 year is going to be really rough. And there's a lot of big blockbuster movies that are coming

02:01 out next year.

02:02 Yeah, absolutely. And I and correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think a single movie

02:06 this year has made $100 million in the box office. So I want you to talk a little bit

02:11 more because you said that nobody was expecting Furiosa to make that much money. Can you tell

02:16 me some factors why and what the reasonings why like why audiences were running to the

02:21 theaters to go see this movie?

02:23 Well, I just think that maybe there was a different expectation put on it because it

02:28 was the big Memorial Day release. But it was never going to be a world conquering hit.

02:33 I mean, it was it's a sequel or I guess a prequel of a movie that came out in 2015,

02:38 Mad Max Fury Road. And that movie only opened to about $45 million and made about $380 million.

02:45 Overall, and so I think you really have to do like sort of a reverse inflation, if you

02:52 will, you know, because over the last 10 years, fewer people are going to the movies. And

02:56 so if a movie opened at $45 million, 10 years ago, then maybe about $32 million, you know,

03:02 seems about right. That movie has a great reputation at one six Oscars and film lovers

03:09 love it. But generally, prequels don't do as well as direct sequels. You know, it's

03:14 not the same cast, you know, not the same familiarity. And really, what I think is that

03:20 this was just a movie for a certain audience, and it found that audience, but that audience

03:25 was not enough to justify $170 million budget. And that's, again, just the production budget

03:32 much more than that marketing. And so yeah, I think ultimately, the movie was just too

03:37 expensive for what its audience was. But hey, the money is there on the screen, it looks

03:44 really cool. It was definitely a fun movie to watch.

03:48 Good. Well, I want to talk about something a little bit different. I love talking about

03:51 the numbers because we're Forbes, obviously. But I want to chat about how this movie was

03:55 received. Like what did critics and audience think about this release?

03:59 Yeah, I mean, I think many critics had the same impression that I did watching it, which

04:06 is that this is a very good movie, but maybe not quite as good as Mad Max Fury Road. That

04:12 movie, again, like I said, won six Oscars, has the reputation as being one of the great

04:17 action movies, really, of the 21st century, if you want to get that grand about it. And

04:23 I think this movie captures some of the same essence of that. Obviously, heavily action

04:29 packed, intense. I think that certainly played a factor in why about 75% of audiences were

04:36 male this weekend. It's certainly like a very testosterone heavy movie, right? But I think

04:44 that to a certain extent, this movie was trying to do a little bit more exposition, I guess

04:49 you could say like lore building of the world. And really, I guess to me, and I know a lot

04:54 of critics agree that that was kind of the weaker parts of the movie. George Miller,

04:59 the director, is one of the great action filmmakers of all time, and especially working today.

05:05 And so the movie is best whenever, you know, there's the cars blazing and the flamethrowers

05:12 going and you know, all the crazy action stuff happens.

05:15 Okay, so I want to pivot to the runner up this weekend. I was surprised to kind of hear

05:21 this movie was runner up to Furiosa. Tell me a little bit more about Garfield and why

05:28 you think it did, it was competing so well with Furiosa.

05:32 Yeah, I think one of the staples remaining in the box office calendar right now is family

05:40 entertainment. Family entertainment does really well. In general, I think it just plays by

05:45 a different set of rules, right? I think oftentimes, parents want to take their kids to a movie

05:50 and care less about, you know, how good is this movie going to be? It's the new movie

05:55 that you know, people are talking about people want to see. And so in general, family entertainment

06:00 does well. The thing I would say it opened to about $31 million domestically. That's

06:04 pretty much just right in line with his tracking. I don't think anyone's you know, popping champagne

06:10 on the Sony lot about this massive hit that they have. But the movie did what it was supposed

06:15 to do here. It's did really well internationally made about 66 million. So it's close to $100

06:21 million overall, it will eventually make its money back and earn some profits for Sony.

06:27 The other thing I will point out about Sony is that they're kind of like one of the arms

06:31 dealers in Hollywood right now. They're not trying to prop up a streaming service. So

06:36 they can go and sell this movie to say Netflix, for example, that's where a lot of their projects

06:41 end up. And that's another way for them to kind of make their money back. So you're seeing

06:45 how studios do have to be more creative about how to make money, right? Like the Fall Guy,

06:50 for example, is already on digital video on demand, only a couple weeks after its release.

06:56 So I think if you're Sony, you're probably really happy with the performance of Garfield.

07:00 So we're happy with performance. How are audiences feeling about the movie? Did it get reviewed?

07:06 Well, maybe not so much.

07:08 Yeah, I think, for the most part, critics kind of killed this movie. And audiences mostly

07:16 liked it. And I think that's actually not as unusual, really in recent years for a lot

07:22 of movies, but not unusual for movies with kids and families as the audience, because

07:28 as I mentioned, there's just kind of a different set of criteria there that, for example, if

07:32 you're 10 years old, what you're looking for from a movie is very different than a professional

07:36 movie critic, right? And so it seems like, you know, a lot of the kids that see this

07:41 movie are happy with it. And as I mentioned, it's doing well internationally, as well as

07:47 in the United States. So those are all good things. I mean, the success of the movie is

07:52 judged on, yeah, if people want to come out and see it. So in that instance, in that criteria,

07:59 it's doing well. But I think critics, for the most part, are not hailing this as an

08:03 Oscar contender.

08:04 Okay, well, can you tell me a little bit more about like the future of these movies? Do

08:10 you think that they're going to continue to see sales? Are they going to gross more, maybe

08:14 less? What are your thoughts?

08:17 Yeah, especially with these movies. I think they will kind of limp out for a few weeks.

08:25 You know, they'll try to hang on as long as they can, and then they'll try to come up

08:28 with other ways to monetize them. As I mentioned, Fall Guys is an example of a movie that opened

08:34 well below expectations. And within two or three weeks, they're trying to sell it video

08:40 on demand. And actually, it's continued to make some money at the box office, even whilst

08:43 being offered on demand as well. That stinks if you're a theater owner, right? Because

08:50 they don't see any of that money from video on demand. But I think what Hollywood is learning

08:55 is really that this is kind of the right range for a movie that only reaches like two quadrants

09:01 of audience. Like Hollywood talks about the four quadrant appeal, which is older and younger

09:06 males, older and younger females. And I think if you have a movie that is only two quadrant

09:12 appeal, right, like Mad Max, I said, is predominantly male. So it's two over the four, right? Garfield,

09:18 really only young people, not older people. Then yeah, okay, 25 to $45 million is kind

09:26 of like your range for an opening. And maybe you're maxing out around $300 million total

09:33 in your run or more, 300 to 400. If that's the case, what's going to have to happen is

09:38 these movies are going to have to get cheaper to make, because if that's the kind of range

09:42 you can expect to bring in, then you're going to have to stop spending $170 million to make

09:48 a movie like this. I think that the bigger trend is just people will come out for movies.

09:53 We saw this last year with Barbenheimer. People will come out and see a movie, but they're

09:58 not in the habit of going to the movies. You're very unlikely to find someone who's like,

10:03 I want to go to the movies and I will figure out what I want to see when I'm there, or

10:07 I'll take a chance on a movie that I don't know much about, or I don't know if I'll like.

10:12 Now you pretty much have to sell someone fully on loving it before they even buy a ticket.

10:19 And so again, if these movies that are kind of, again, appealing to some people, not appealing

10:24 to others, maybe this is kind of the range that you can expect as the new normal.

10:29 Yeah, absolutely. And I can definitely see how streaming has definitely changed the way

10:34 we go see the movies. But I want to talk about the other films that were still in theaters

10:39 this weekend. How did they do? What were the other films?

10:42 Yeah, I mean, I kind of think that like, so King of the Planet of the Apes is kind of

10:47 the case study right now that people are looking at and they're like, why did this movie succeed?

10:53 Because it's still hanging on, doing pretty well at the box office. It's passed its expectations.

11:00 It's going to be probably a moneymaker for Disney in a year when they really need it.

11:03 Because again, they don't have a lot of big releases this year. That's kind of the one

11:06 that I'm looking at. And I'm sure people in the industry are looking at and saying, you

11:11 know, why did why did this appeal to so many people? Why? Why was this one of those event

11:15 movies that you feel like you had to come out and see? I again, I don't know. I don't

11:20 know. I don't know the answer to that. The other movie that was kind of hanging on is

11:22 if the imaginary friends movie directed by John John Krasinski and a star studded cast.

11:29 However, that kind of competes directly with Garfield for that kids audience. And so the

11:35 success of Garfield kind of ultimately it's somewhat of a binary thing. Like there's very

11:40 rarely multiple kids movies in the market that are doing well. So as Garfield did well

11:46 this weekend, the imaginary friends movie kind of went down. And so, again, we'll see.

11:53 We have still to come this summer, like some huge movies that I'm sure will will still

11:58 be hits because to my point, I feel like people will come out for a big movie. The bigger

12:02 point is that just there's not there's not that many must see can't miss releases really

12:09 for the entire calendar year.

12:12 That's right. There's doesn't seem like there's another Barbenheimer in our midst, but I want

12:16 you to talk a little bit more about what we can look forward to in the coming weeks and

12:20 months. I think that there's some movies that could could do some numbers in July.

12:25 Yes. Again, I think this is important to say, because originally Marvel's Wolverine vs.

12:33 Deadpool movie was slated to come out this Memorial Day weekend. It got delayed because,

12:40 again, actors and writers strikes harmed the back end of that production. And so it's coming

12:44 out in mid-July and that's going to be a huge movie. So, for example, if that movie had

12:49 come out this weekend, Memorial Day, it probably would have opened, you know, one hundred million

12:54 dollars or something like that. And then, you know, the narrative, everyone would be

12:57 singing a different tune about, oh, people still love coming out to the movies. Right.

13:01 I just think it's it's way more case by case versus kind of this sea level that's relatively

13:08 good for everyone. And then there's some that rise above or below. And now it's just like

13:13 the sea level is so low. You know, the baseline, you're not guaranteed anything and you kind

13:18 of have to earn all those dollars. So, yeah, Deadpool vs. Wolverine will be a huge movie

13:24 for Marvel in July. Also, we're a couple of weeks out from Inside Out 2. I think that's

13:29 going to be a huge movie. And then a lot of people are predicting that Despicable Me 4

13:34 of July 4th weekend might be the biggest movie of the entire year, which is kind of crazy

13:39 to think that this is now like one of the biggest franchises, you know, in all of Hollywood.

13:45 But we could look at the end of the year and say Despicable Me 4 was the king to rule them

13:50 all, the Barbie of the year. I want to pivot one more time and I just want to pick your

13:55 brain a little bit. Con just wrapped up. I want to know what your biggest takeaway is

13:59 from that. What are you excited about? What are you not so excited about? Yeah, I think

14:05 there's two movies that you have to talk about out of Con and not necessarily as bright spots

14:12 for the year. Honestly, they could be disasters. But Horizon, part one that the movie directed,

14:19 written and starring Kevin Costner, reportedly put thirty eight million dollars of his own

14:23 money into this. And it's only part one of a four part epic series. That's another Warner

14:29 Brothers release. There's two of them coming out this summer and it's a massive, massive

14:36 risk. For example, if people don't like the first movie, no one goes to see it. Then the

14:41 second one is like almost guaranteed to flop. That is going to be such a bellwether of not

14:47 only Kevin Costner's current star power in Hollywood, but also, you know, Warner Brothers.

14:54 Honestly, their success for the entire year, I think depends on that one. An even bigger

14:58 risk you could say is Megalopolis, which is the movie directed by Francis Ford Coppola,

15:04 because reportedly and again, no one's really been able to pin this down, but he may have

15:08 spent like over one hundred million dollars of his own money to make this. It's kind of

15:12 like a passion project, 40 years in the making. And it had very mixed results. It kind of,

15:20 I would say, mostly negative. But some people said it was genius in a kind of messy, confusing

15:28 way. And that movie does not have a distributor yet. So we actually don't know when we're

15:33 going to be able to see it. It has like a sort of a limited engagement with IMAX set

15:38 up. And that seems like almost like a career achievement award for Francis Ford Coppola,

15:43 who, of course, he made The Godfather and he made Apocalypse Now. And those movies were

15:49 thought to be kind of runaway disasters until they turned out to be huge hits. So, of course,

15:56 maybe hoping for a similar outcome here. I think it's unlikely based on what I've read

16:01 and what I've heard, but I haven't seen the movie and I don't know when I will get a chance

16:06 to see the movie or if I will. So it might end up being kind of like the most expensive

16:11 museum piece of all time. But I think those are the two movies that you have to talk about

16:17 coming out of Con, for sure.

16:20 Matt, thank you so much. I really enjoyed this conversation. I really hope to talk to

16:23 you soon.

16:24 Always fun to talk movies. Appreciate it.

16:26 Thank you.

16:27 Thank you.

16:28 Bye.

16:29 Bye.

16:30 Bye.

16:35 [BLANK_AUDIO]

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