Cubs vs. Reds at Wrigley: A Strategic Game Analysis
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00:00Now we go to a day baseball game at Wrigley. The friendly confines on a nice early summer Friday,
00:07at least after Memorial Day. Now that's baseball to me. Before I ask you about the game between
00:13the Cubs and the Reds, the title of this graphic, if we could show it, is Central Seas. Do you know
00:19what that is referring to? Central Seas, I guess would be the logo with a couple of C's in there.
00:25I mean, you're trying to get one by me on a Friday here? Do you know who Central Seas is?
00:31He's a British rapper from London. Yeah, that's what I believe Joe Frizzo, our producer,
00:37was alluding to. Hasn't sold a lot of albums apparently at this point. Goodness, who is that
00:42guy? You don't listen to UK rap if it ain't David Centro. We'll say that after another
00:46title. Javier Assad on the bump for the Cubbies today, and Javier Assad has been very, very good
00:52this year. Chicago nearly a dollar and a half favorite. The Cubs return from Milwaukee where
00:57they dropped three of four against the Brew Crew. Now, this also is one of those where you might
01:02want to take advantage of a situation that may not appear for us today. 75 degrees at Wrigley,
01:06which is always nice. Wind actually not blowing in, but technically not blowing out. More from
01:10a right foul pole to left foul pole at this instance. But take a look at this. Assad,
01:14just in his home start span, he's been very good against left-handed batters. But take a look at
01:19this. Against righties, the weighted-on-base percentages over the last 30 days have really
01:23gone up. He's got a 255 ISO and a 365 weighted-on-base percentage against. On the season,
01:28it's only 120 and 267 respectively. But how about this? An over six XFIP number to right-handed
01:36batters at home this season, which means you put the ball in the air in Wrigley, it typically goes
01:41out of the ballpark. But again, that dilemma is who is going to be those dominant right-handed
01:46bats. Candelaria is having a very good season, but he's a switch hitter. He's going up against
01:50a right-handed pitcher today. Hobat lefty. There's nobody in this lineup. Will Benson has very good
01:54numbers against right-handed pitching, but he's a lefty as well. So maybe Assad will be able to get
01:59by in this game because not a lot of good statistics from the right-handed batters of
02:03the Cincinnati Reds in this spot. So that's where you get the advantage. Flip it over to the opposite
02:07side and take a look at how those situations play out. Ashcraft is an average pitcher,
02:11struggling against right-handed batters. And for those right-handed batters in the lineup today,
02:15you're probably going to look more or less at that cleanup spot. Christopher Morel, 167 ISO
02:20power number as maybe an opportunity, but I'm not in love with this game for a total. Two pitchers
02:25that can be hit. I don't know if these lineups are going to be able to provide that punch, Ben,
02:28that we need to get a total to the over.