Astros vs Twins: Ronel Blanco’s Return and Game Analysis
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00:00 [MUSIC]
00:03 Now we go to Houston, where the Astros host the twins in game number one of this
00:07 weekend series.
00:09 Is this Ronald Blanco's first start since he was ejected for
00:13 the sticky stuff for a foreign substance?
00:15 I believe it is, right?
00:16 >> No.
00:16 >> Second. >> I don't think it is.
00:18 >> From that ejection.
00:20 Second start back from that ejection.
00:22 Either way, Ronald Blanco on the bump tonight, who has been great this year for
00:26 whatever reason, minus 112 now working slightly in Houston's favor.
00:31 But a virtual pick them with a total of eight.
00:34 What happens tonight in Houston?
00:36 >> You know what's interesting about this game, Ben?
00:38 You take a look at it and say to yourself, okay, Houston is at home,
00:41 picked up a win yesterday, they should be competitive, right?
00:43 But Minnesota is a decent ball club this year.
00:46 You see that pick them and you say, well, if I'm just looking at frontline starting
00:49 pitching, who, Blanco not really a frontline guy, Pablo Lopez really is.
00:53 But how about this?
00:54 Let's take a look at his numbers and let's just look at the last 30 days just
00:57 based on his ISO power number weighted on base percentages.
01:00 He's a very good pitcher, but he is leaking some oil.
01:03 A 198 ISO and a 351 weighted on base percentage.
01:06 Lefties, including Kyle Tucker, who's in that lineup with an incredible ISO
01:09 power number, is a 224 and a 365 weighted on base percentage.
01:13 So you really should be able to club him.
01:15 But here's the interesting part, Ben,
01:16 about the analytical approach that does come in.
01:19 Take a look at those last 30 days.
01:20 A 26% strikeout rate, which is very good.
01:23 A walk rate of only 2.4.
01:25 But how about this?
01:26 If you're saying, all right, how does this equate to what we think he can do today?
01:31 His road splits this year.
01:33 Take a look at this.
01:34 His ERA on the road, Ben, is a six.
01:36 That's unbelievably bad.
01:38 And you're playing in a small ballpark.
01:40 But check this out.
01:41 His XFIP number on the road, 2.77.
01:45 So something has to give.
01:46 Is it what we've seen with the ERA or the analytical numbers telling us he's actually
01:51 been pitching really well, just getting unlucky?
01:54 That's what we have to filter in.
01:55 So if anybody out there saying, like, I don't understand why Pablo Lopez has this price
01:58 point, which is only a pick 'em, he's by far and away the more dominant pitcher.
02:01 He actually hasn't shown that based on ERA.
02:04 But he's due to have one of those games where he could be dominant.
02:07 His XFIP is telling you that on the road.
02:09 This is a really interesting matchup of what you trust, the analytical numbers or what
02:13 those numbers are actually showing you on the field here, Ben.
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