Election 2024: 3 जून तक क्या करें...Buy, Sell or Hold? 4 जून के दिन क्या स्ट्रैटेजी अपनाएं? कब और कितना पैसा निवेश करें? मोदी जी फिर से आएं तो किन शेयर्स को खरीदें? समझिए Mr Vijay Mehta-President, Association of National Exchanges Members of India (ANMI) & Chairman & CEO: Mefcom Capital Mkts. Ltd. से...
#ElectionStocks #ElectionResult2024 #Votingday #sharemarket #elections #stockmarket #LoksabhaElection2024 #Votingday #ElectionsandShareMarket #Motilaloswal #ElectionImpactOnShareMarket #ElectionResult2024 #Stocks #ElectionStocks #narendramodi #congress #modivsrahulgandhi #bjpvscongress #lastphasevoting
~HT.99~PR.147~ED.148~
#ElectionStocks #ElectionResult2024 #Votingday #sharemarket #elections #stockmarket #LoksabhaElection2024 #Votingday #ElectionsandShareMarket #Motilaloswal #ElectionImpactOnShareMarket #ElectionResult2024 #Stocks #ElectionStocks #narendramodi #congress #modivsrahulgandhi #bjpvscongress #lastphasevoting
~HT.99~PR.147~ED.148~
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00BJP's government doesn't come, then what will happen?
00:03Markets have always reversed.
00:05The first one is Adani Group, it will fall.
00:0715 or 20% will fall.
00:09If the market goes up, then everyone will sell.
00:12Modi's favourite industrial houses, they will do very well.
00:16If BJP makes a government, then these short sellers will have to be covered.
00:21What the market does not like is an unstable condition.
00:25The market has gone down 16 times.
00:28Modi is good for the market.
00:59BJP's clear majority is also being formed.
01:01Government is also being formed with NDA.
01:04Or there can be a worst scenario when BJP does not form its government.
01:09So if you are an investor, trader, and want to enter the share market,
01:14then this video is completely for you.
01:17Mr. Vijaya Mehta is in conversation with us.
01:28Mr. Mehta, we will talk because we are going to Lok Sabha elections in the last phase.
01:39There are 3-4 scenarios that are coming up.
01:43According to that, we will try to know how the market will react in every situation.
01:48The first scenario is, suppose BJP wins with a clear majority.
01:53BJP gets 325 seats and NDA gets 365 seats.
01:59In such a situation, what will happen to the market?
02:01How will the market play out?
02:03If this scenario happens,
02:08if we look at the market for some time, how will it play out?
02:14We have done a study in our office.
02:18If your first scenario becomes a reality,
02:23I think Nifty will go up to about, it should cross 24,000.
02:29Alright.
02:30Because if there is a chance of an absolute majority,
02:34with or without the allies, 325 plus, this could be the scenario.
02:42Okay, now let's come to scenario number 2.
02:45Suppose BJP gets 300 to 325.
02:49It is not 325, it is less than 325, it is between 300 to 325.
02:53With NDA, it is 350.
02:56How will the market react in this scenario?
02:58Do you think there could be a fall?
03:01What target will you give?
03:02If the first seats of BJP were 303,
03:08if it is anywhere between 303 plus,
03:13but not too much, less than 320, let's say.
03:17Right.
03:18In that case, I think it will touch or may be crossing
03:24the immediate previous high of 23,600.
03:28So, it will go up to that.
03:31Because we have already reacted in the last 5 days.
03:34There was a lot of reaction in the market.
03:38The market that has closed today, it is around 22,550.
03:44So, it is a good scenario in that case also.
03:47Now, let's come to the third possible scenario.
03:51In which, if BJP gets seats from 272 to 300,
03:56with NDA, it is 325.
03:59So, what will be the reaction in the market?
04:01At that time, the market will not react much.
04:06The current situation is like a normal day,
04:11in which the market goes up and down by 400-500 points.
04:16So, the market will not react much on that.
04:18It will be almost around the same level as it was on 3rd of June.
04:24Okay.
04:26We have talked about 272-300.
04:29Now, let's assume that it is less than 272.
04:33If it is less, then the market will crash.
04:35It will crash.
04:36So, how much target do you want to give at that time?
04:38I think at least 21,700-21,800.
04:42It will go up to 21,000.
04:44Not 21,000.
04:4621,700-21,800.
04:4821,700-21,800. Okay.
04:50The fourth scenario, for which the market is not ready at all.
04:54If BJP's government does not come, then what will happen?
04:58In that scenario, the market will fall by 15-20%.
05:0215-20%.
05:04It will fall.
05:04Because the market is not ready for it.
05:06If BJP's government does not come, the market is not ready for it.
05:09Two things are very important in the market.
05:12One thing is a stable government.
05:14Absolutely.
05:15And second is the future policies of that government.
05:17Absolutely.
05:18The scenario that you have just told,
05:21in that case, the government will not be stable.
05:25Because there is no Prime Minister.
05:27Who will be the Prime Minister?
05:28You mean that if the Indian government comes,
05:31then definitely, even if we take the most pessimistic scenario,
05:36if the Indian government makes a government, it will make it on the edge.
05:38There is no indication of a thumping majority.
05:42So in that case, what the market does not like is an unstable condition.
05:48Right.
05:49And a policy paralysis.
05:51Because if the Indian government comes, then whose policy will be followed?
05:56They have not given a minimum common program.
05:58Absolutely.
05:59So it will be like a vacuum.
06:02In that case, the market will react very badly.
06:05My next question was what the market wants, which you have already explained.
06:10Now, sir, let's talk, because this week was Thursday, Friday, and the results are coming.
06:16So these were very important trading sessions.
06:19Today was the expiry day.
06:21The market has been falling and closing in its closing time for 4 days in a row.
06:25And this is the scenario of the result and exit poll that the market is falling and closing.
06:31What do you think are the reasons? Why is this happening?
06:34What is the problem?
06:35See, in 9 out of 10 cases of election results in the last 10 elections,
06:44markets have always reversed.
06:46So the sign that has come now, I think a very short position will be created in this.
06:54Okay.
06:54And if the result, most probably, if the BJP makes a government,
06:59then these short sellers will have to be covered.
07:03So at that time, the market will suddenly go very fast.
07:07Okay.
07:07Now, the Americans have also been in a downward trend for the last 5-6 days.
07:13Right.
07:14Generally, a downward trend does not remain for more than 6 days or 7 days.
07:21So we are almost around that time.
07:23The second thing is that the one election in which the market completely crashed,
07:30that was when Atal Bihari Vajpayee government lost in 2004.
07:35Right.
07:35But within 6 months of that, the market totally recovered.
07:39So the one who bought in the fall, he made very good money.
07:44You are talking about Atal Bihari Vajpayee's government,
07:47which was in such a way that his government came but did not come.
07:51Now, in that, we get to see this trend that no matter what the reaction in the market is,
07:55whether the market falls or comes fast,
07:57the trend that becomes of a fall or a fast, it does not remain for a long time.
08:02It recovers in 6 months.
08:04In this situation, if we talk about this Lok Sabha election,
08:09then how do you see if there is a fast or a slow in both scenarios?
08:13See, whoever comes, even if it comes fast, as I said,
08:17if it crosses 24,000, it will not last long.
08:21The reason for that is that the market is technically already at a lifetime high.
08:27The scenario that is there, depending on the number of votes,
08:32it will remain fast for that long.
08:33After that, the market has to find a realistic level.
08:38Right.
08:38Because this is such an event which is very important for the Indian stock market,
08:44but it is not very important for the world market.
08:46America will go by their own circumstances or policies.
08:50Right.
08:50So, if at that time, America, due to its own policies,
08:54America, Europe or Japan, if they react,
08:59so that reaction will then come to the Indian market.
09:02Okay, Amit Shah ji recently gave a statement
09:05that whatever volatility is seen in the market in these days,
09:09it should not be seen by connecting it with the elections.
09:11What's your take on that?
09:12I think he is right.
09:14During the last about 2-3 years,
09:18the market has gone down 16 times.
09:21Right.
09:22Right.
09:23Now, the Home Minister says that this is a part of the market,
09:27which I have also just now mentioned,
09:31that the market will come, it is an event reaction.
09:34Once that event is done, people know the reality,
09:39then slowly the market comes down to its real levels.
09:42Now, the important thing is that investors want to know,
09:46Sir, whatever questions I am asking you now,
09:49we have written all this on the basis of what investors want to know,
09:53what retail investors want and what beginners in the stock market want.
09:58In that regard, this question is that should four people make a fresh investment?
10:03It depends on what the market will open.
10:05Hmm.
10:06Okay, in the perspective of both investors and traders,
10:10what are the possible scenarios you are taking?
10:11If the market goes up, then everyone should sell.
10:14Okay.
10:15If it goes down, then everyone should buy.
10:17Okay, what should the traders take care of?
10:20Traders, I think they don't need my advice because trading is fast fingers.
10:27Yes.
10:28So, they react very fast.
10:30Hmm.
10:30We can tell investors, but the day the votes come,
10:35let's take a scenario that before 9 o'clock,
10:40there is a situation in which BJP is not leading.
10:44Right.
10:45So, traders will go short.
10:46Absolutely.
10:46But at 11 o'clock, the position reverses.
10:49Yes.
10:49So, they will immediately cover their short and go long.
10:51Absolutely.
10:52So, traders have a reaction of a fraction of a second.
10:57Hmm.
10:57It is very difficult to envisage that in advance.
11:01Okay, now one more question.
11:02If you are investing money, then where should you invest?
11:05Look, there are two scenarios for money.
11:08Hmm.
11:09One scenario is that, let's say, BJP-Modi government comes.
11:13In my opinion, in our own office, we have identified about 5-6 sectors.
11:19Right, right.
11:20One is power.
11:21Hmm.
11:22The other is PSUs.
11:24Hmm.
11:25But good stocks in each.
11:26Hmm.
11:27Then there are some manufacturing sectors in which you will find some good stocks.
11:36Then there will be new e-commerce like Nika, Zomato.
11:42Very right.
11:43Then defense sector, that will do very well.
11:46And then maybe some of Modi's favorite industrial houses, they will do very well.
11:52Okay.
11:52Can you tell me any safe particular stocks?
11:56In which sector?
11:57If we have to make a bucket of investors from each sector.
12:01If we look at power, I would like to consider REC, PFC, NTPC, NHPC.
12:11NHPC, right.
12:12In defense stock, we can Dexmeco, Aircon International, and RVNL, and IRCTC or IRADA.
12:25Not IRCTC, but IRADA.
12:28Yes, yes, yes.
12:28So, these are the good stocks.
12:31And then PSUs, we can look at steel companies, then we can look at HAL, we can look at BEL,
12:41we can look at BHEL.
12:43Hmm.
12:44So, there are plenty of stocks which are now correcting also.
12:47So, these corrections, people are shorting also.
12:52Hmm.
12:52So, this will give a short-term gain very fast.
12:55Okay.
12:56I think now your bucket must be ready because Mr. Mehta has told some stocks in each sector
13:03which you can include in your portfolio if you have not done it yet.
13:07Sir, my next question is, what should retail investors do before 4th June?
13:11That is, what should they do on 3rd June?
13:12Buy, sell, and hold?
13:15This depends on the guts of the retail investor.
13:18Okay.
13:18It is very difficult to hold on to your guts at this time.
13:22Hmm.
13:23And it depends on your risk appetite.
13:26Not every retail investor has that risk.
13:29Not that risk.
13:30Today you have Rs. 100, Rs. 50.
13:32Hmm.
13:33So, another thing is that a lot of retail investors, they are trading on borrowed money.
13:39Hmm.
13:39Either they have broker funding.
13:41So, you will have to define this retail investor, then only I can react.
13:46Because the small retail investors, whether they buy 100 shares or sell 200 shares,
13:52Yes.
13:52the market will not move in that case.
13:55Hmm.
13:55And if they have borrowed money, then they will lose their brokerage if there is so much fluctuation.
14:03Hmm.
14:03Because this result is a result about which no one is 100% sure in today's date.
14:12Absolutely.
14:13Even where we call it as Satta Bazaar of the Indian election market,
14:20there also they are giving a range.
14:23So, if you ask anyone, some psychologist, they will announce it on first evening.
14:31Hmm.
14:31Let's see what they say.
14:32June 3rd is very important.
14:35Why?
14:36Because on June 1st, the last phase voting is going on.
14:38It is a Saturday day.
14:39On Monday, we will get to see the reaction directly in the market.
14:43This is also important because on June 4th, the result is coming.
14:47So, sir, what do you see?
14:48What reaction can be seen on the market on June 3rd?
14:51What scenarios can there be?
14:52Will there be a correction?
14:54The reaction of the market can be told only when you ask me its underlying clarification.
15:00I can say this in a short word that the market reaction will depend on the exit polls.
15:06Exit polls.
15:07But what will be the exit poll, nobody knows.
15:09What should we do on the day of the result?
15:10Should we save cash to deploy on that particular day?
15:14Relax, the day of the result is not for a retail investor, it's for specialists and specially traders.
15:27Right.
15:27Even investors won't participate, I think.
15:30Hmm.
15:30Let the market settle down, where is the hurry?
15:33There are two kinds of people.
15:34Hmm.
15:35One is who are sitting on their position by tomorrow closure, which is the last closure.
15:42Hmm.
15:43Now, those people have taken a long-term view and they have taken a long-term view on India's economy.
15:48Hmm.
15:48Let's say under Modi government, the GDP growth is at the rate of 7%.
15:53Right.
15:54Let's say Mr. Modi does not come back, the GDP growth will stay at 6%.
15:58Hmm.
15:59So, they have made that margin.
16:01India will not stop growing overnight.
16:04India will continue to grow.
16:07Very well.
16:07In fact, it's a matter of, it's a very funny calculation that the markets have given better
16:15returns during Congress rule.
16:16Hmm.
16:17So, it's not that if, but at that time Congress was stable.
16:23Hmm.
16:24The problem is of stability.
16:26The problem is not of the, if Mr. Modi is unstable, then also the market will react.
16:31Very true.
16:32Very true.
16:33Hmm.
16:34Hmm.
16:35Hmm.
16:36Hmm.
16:37Hmm.
16:38Hmm.
17:08Hmm.
17:09Hmm.
17:10Hmm.
17:11Hmm.
17:12Hmm.
17:13Hmm.
17:14Hmm.
17:15Hmm.
17:16Hmm.
17:17Hmm.
17:18Hmm.
17:19Hmm.
17:20Hmm.
17:21Hmm.
17:22Hmm.
17:23Hmm.
17:24Hmm.
17:25Hmm.
17:26Hmm.
17:27Hmm.
17:28Hmm.
17:29Hmm.
17:30Hmm.
17:31Hmm.
17:32Hmm.
17:33Hmm.
17:34Hmm.
17:35Hmm.
17:36Hmm.
17:37Hmm.
17:38Hmm.
17:39Hmm.
17:40Hmm.
17:41Hmm.
17:42Hmm.
17:43Hmm.
17:44Hmm.
17:45Hmm.
17:46Hmm.
17:47Hmm.
17:48Hmm.
17:49Hmm.
17:50Hmm.
17:51Hmm.
17:52Hmm.
17:53Hmm.
17:54Hmm.
17:55Hmm.
17:56Hmm.
17:57Hmm.
17:58Hmm.
17:59Hmm.
18:00Hmm.
18:01Hmm.
18:02Hmm.
18:03Hmm.
18:04Hmm.
18:05Hmm.
18:06Hmm.
18:07Hmm.
18:08Hmm.
18:09Hmm.
18:10Hmm.
18:11Hmm.
18:12Hmm.
18:13Hmm.
18:14Hmm.
18:15Hmm.
18:16Hmm.
18:17Hmm.
18:18Hmm.
18:19Hmm.
18:20Hmm.
18:21Hmm.
18:22Hmm.
18:23Hmm.
18:24Hmm.
18:25Hmm.
18:26Hmm.
18:27Hmm.
18:28Hmm.
18:29Hmm.
18:30Hmm.
18:31Hmm.
18:32Hmm.
18:33Hmm.
18:34Hmm.
18:35Hmm.
18:36Hmm.
18:37Hmm.
18:38Hmm.
18:39Hmm.
18:40Hmm.
18:41Hmm.
18:42Hmm.
18:43Hmm.
18:44Hmm.
18:45Hmm.
18:46Hmm.
18:47Hmm.
18:48Hmm.
18:49Hmm.
18:50Hmm.
18:51Hmm.
18:52Hmm.
18:53Hmm.
18:54Hmm.
18:55Hmm.
18:56Hmm.
18:57Hmm.
18:58Hmm.
18:59Hmm.
19:00Hmm.
19:01Hmm.
19:02Hmm.
19:03Hmm.
19:04Today you can see that what you are saying is available in the market daily.
19:11In the last 7 days also if someone had a risk appetite then he could go short and he could have made a lot of money.
19:19And before that 7 days, you see today is Thursday when we are talking.
19:24Last Thursday market went up by 3-400 points.
19:27So the one who is going to understand the market after that both the sides are open.
19:34But this is like SEBI has gone on record officially saying that 90% of the people lose money in their options and future.
19:46Now I am feeling very bad that today's market fall is not exactly a reflection of the election results.
19:56It is a reflection of the technical position of the market.
20:00So all the people who were in options, today majority of them have ended up paying losses.
20:07So my advice to this small investor is that he should not go for rampant speculation.
20:16He can pick up some good stocks if the market falls and he can sell his old investments on which he has made good profit.
20:25He can sell it if the market goes very high.
20:28According to the share market, how do you see the Modi government?
20:32Modi government during the last 10 years, investors have made good money.
20:39Especially after the COVID period.
20:42So naturally stock market loves the person who makes them make money.
20:46Whether it is Adani or Ambani or Modi or Mahindra.
20:53So right now, of course, people feel that Modi is good for the market.
20:58After the results, the next big event will be the budget.
21:02In the budget, last time we saw that the focus of the Modi government was on infrastructure.
21:07This time, what do you think, which sectors will the Modi government focus on?
21:12Taxation will be rationalized.
21:15This is a very old standing demand.
21:20Because if you have noticed, the first budget, government likes to really come forward and be a little aggressive.
21:33And in the last budget, distributing to the poor and all that.
21:37So before the first budget, there is another major event on which the budget will depend, that is monsoon.
21:44So if the monsoon is good, then the budget will change.
21:48And if the monsoon is bad, then the budget will be different.
21:52So I think it is too early to talk about the budget.
21:55So do you think volatility can be seen in the market at that time, the way you are talking about monsoon?
22:01See, monsoon, the prediction is that it should be good.
22:06Now good is one point of the monsoon.
22:09The other point is spread out.
22:13Previously, there were four states in which the monsoon was deficient.
22:18And another four states was floods.
22:21So what is required is a homogeneous distribution of monsoon.
22:26Now this is something which is very difficult to predict so much in advance.
22:31Right now, by the time we are talking, it has been predicted monsoon will be entering Kerala.
22:38I think it has entered today and by tomorrow it will be officially announced.
22:43So let's see, I think there is always a room for another interview closer to the budget.
22:49Absolutely.
22:50By the way, sir has to say that it is too early to discuss about the budget.
22:57But still, because it is almost decided whose government will be formed.
23:02I am not saying this.
23:03There have been a lot of predictions.
23:05The share market is reacting in this way.
23:08But if investors have to make strategies for the budget, those who think of the long term,
23:13what suggestions would you like to give them?
23:16See, I can tell you that markets are good.
23:20They will continue to be good.
23:22Don't consider the reactions.
23:25Reaction is making markets healthier.
23:29So the more the reaction, the higher will be the markets.
23:32I would suggest the investors that identify good stocks, which if you can get at a reasonable value,
23:40which is very difficult.
23:42But if you get it, there is a fall.
23:44Buy that stock and sleep over it.
23:48Minimum for 6 months.
23:50And I think they should be able to earn good money.
23:54Okay, sir.
23:55My last question to you.
23:56I would like to know your wish list.
23:58What would you recommend for before 4th June and after 4th June, which is the time of 3-4 days.
24:03What would you recommend to investors for that?
24:05Well, I think Adani Group and one of the most competent banks.
24:12Not all the companies, but Adani Power and Adani Enterprises.
24:19This is on the assumption that the Modi government is coming back strongly.
24:24So in the speculation side, they will go up.
24:27Defence stocks will go up.
24:30HAL, BEL and BHEL, they are all ripe to go up.
24:38Cochin Shipyards, Mazgaon Dock.
24:43And one very important sector will be the market infrastructure sector.
24:49BSE, NSE, MCX, CDSL, CAMS, these stocks will go up.
24:57Because if you see the number of investors, the DP accounts have already crossed about 14 crores.
25:04Now if you look at CDSL, there is still a scope to do well.
25:10In the defensive stock, it is always Pharma and IT and all.
25:15That's it.
25:16Okay, although it was my last question, but I feel like asking one more question.
25:21Are there any such shares that will fall if the Modi government comes?
25:25The first one is Adani Group, it will fall.
25:28No, no, if the Modi government comes.
25:30If it comes, it will fall.
25:32What are the sectors or stocks that will fall if the Modi government retains?
25:38The same stock.
25:39IT, because IT will fall due to speculation.
25:43In IT, IT and Pharma are defensive stocks.
25:47But they will not fall if the Modi government comes.
25:50If the Modi government comes and the market goes up, then everyone will go up.
25:53Thank you so much sir.
25:54Thank you so much for joining us.
25:55Thank you.
25:56So I hope your bucket is ready in which you can focus on which sectors and which shares.
26:03You must have known all those things.
26:05I hope you liked this video.
26:06If you have any queries by commenting, you can ask us.
26:07If you are watching on Facebook, then like the Facebook page.
26:08If you are watching this video on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:09If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:10If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:11If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:12If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:13If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:14If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:15If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:16If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:17If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:18If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:19If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:20If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:21If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:22If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:23If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:24If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:25If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:26If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:27If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:28If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:29If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:30If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:31If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:32If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:33If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:35If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:36If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:37If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:38If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:39If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:40If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:41If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:42If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:43If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:44If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:45If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:46If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:47If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.
26:48If you are watching on YouTube, then subscribe to this channel.