Preview: Timberwolves vs Mavericks Game 2 WCF Showdown
Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00 [MUSIC]
00:03 Game number two of the Western Conference Finals tonight in Minneapolis
00:07 between the Timberwolves and the Mavericks.
00:10 He is Donnie Rightside, I am Ben Stevens.
00:12 Heading into a Friday night with a second game of the Western Conference Finals
00:17 ahead of a holiday weekend.
00:18 Who could you better ask for than the two premier NBA handicappers on this
00:22 biz grizz network, Ben and Donnie here for you for game number two of the WCF.
00:28 And Donnie, let's start with the spread itself.
00:31 Game number one, the Timberwolves a four and a half point favorite,
00:34 which was actually the largest number in favor of the T-wolves at home in any of
00:39 their six home playoff games so far this postseason.
00:42 The Mavs went out right, 108, 105 as an underdog.
00:46 Dallas as a dog this postseason, four and one, both straight up.
00:50 And then of course, against the spread.
00:52 But now in game number two, despite the Mavericks winning game number one,
00:56 the Timberwolves a stronger favorite.
00:58 It's a five and a half point number in favor of Minnesota at home.
01:03 How come?
01:03 >> I just think you're taking a look here at Minnesota being the better basketball
01:08 team and you're expecting them to bounce back.
01:09 You can't afford to go down 02 on your home court and then go in and say, well,
01:14 let's handle our business two times in Dallas just to get back to Minnesota on
01:19 a two to even playing field.
01:20 That can't happen.
01:21 And also, if we're taking a look at the betting splits here at Fandle,
01:23 this is an interesting split that we have.
01:25 Much like we talked about yesterday with the betting public,
01:27 like wait a second, Dallas won game number one, now they're getting five and
01:30 a half. I'll take that, get that same feeling with the Pacers.
01:33 Hey, I got ten points and I'm getting roughly nine.
01:35 I'll sign up for that again and it was a heavy public favorite.
01:37 It's not so much a heavy public favorite in this one, but take a look at this.
01:41 58% of the bets coming in on the spread are coming in for Dallas.
01:45 So 58 tickets out of 100.
01:47 But how about this?
01:48 The percentage of the money coming in is actually 69% on the Minnesota Timberwolves.
01:53 So more money is actually coming in on the Timberwolves despite more bets coming in on
01:56 Dallas.
01:57 So maybe some of that sharp money pushing it around a little bit.
01:59 And as we talked about the opening number after we saw game number one, Ben, it was
02:03 four and a half right away, which has since moved to five and a half because that money
02:07 is starting to push it around.
02:08 And I do agree with that movement here.
02:10 I have Minnesota winning the basketball game tonight.
02:13 And certainly, if I think they win, it's going to be worth more than five and a half points
02:16 of the win by margin.
02:18 That's the way I'm going here.
02:19 It is a very interesting distinction you bring up, DRS.
02:23 58% of the overall volume of bets on the Mavericks.
02:26 You could think of that as the public love for a Dallas team that has already won a game
02:30 on the road in the WCF.
02:32 But the money is what is moving the market.
02:35 Now five and a half in favor of Minnesota.
02:38 Again, that would be the largest spread in favor of the Timberwolves throughout this
02:42 postseason.
02:43 Minnesota has only been booked as a favorite in Minnesota at home.
02:47 This is the largest number.
02:49 They are three and three, both straight up and against the number, meaning every time
02:53 they win at home, they also cover that spread.
02:56 It's now at five and a half.
02:57 Total up by a point to 207 and a hook.
03:00 I'm fascinated by this over-under.
03:02 Up by a point from game number one, 108-105.
03:05 It went over 206 and a half.
03:08 All four victories for the Timberwolves in their second round set against the reigning
03:12 champs in the Nuggets.
03:14 Total stayed under.
03:16 Do you think if you have the Timberwolves winning tonight and covering a five and a
03:20 half point spread, we go under 207 and a half?
03:24 They probably should, which means you're expecting a pretty good defensive output for the Timberwolves.
03:28 Also keep in mind, though, Dallas Mavericks are a very good offensive team.
03:31 Look at Donchuk.
03:32 He doesn't care how good your defense is.
03:33 He's going to get his 25 plus points.
03:35 You can certainly set your clock by that.
03:37 And also, as you pointed out so many times, we're not talking about a regular season,
03:41 233 and a half, should this game stay under the total.
03:44 It's 207 and a half, which means both of these talented offenses, you would hope that
03:49 at least one of those teams is going to be below 100 points, which technically, usually,
03:54 is hard to do.
03:55 So if I'm looking at a total itself, it's hard to take the under, but the correlation,
03:59 as we know, is there.
04:00 The better defensive team is Minnesota.
04:02 If this game is played with both teams are below 100, you're probably going to tip your
04:05 cap to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
04:07 If this game has a more of up-tempo flow, then it probably leans more towards the Dallas
04:11 Mavericks.
04:12 So five and a half there probably correlates with the under.
04:14 One of those, you know, 107, 100 type finals, which is if you hit the nail on the head.
04:19 - Right, that's really the nail on the head.
04:22 And to Donnie's point, that wouldn't be a ton of margin of error.
04:25 You don't need a high-scoring offensive affair to push us over 207 and a hook.
04:31 Again, 206 and a half was the lowest over-under the Mavericks had seen in any of their 13
04:36 playoff games in game number one.
04:40 So there's a couple of ways that you could point a path to victory for Minnesota.
04:44 The Timberwolves cover is a five and a half point favorite because one of the best defensive
04:48 teams has a better defensive output than they did in game number one.
04:52 Total stays under.
04:53 Now we go to the prop component of it all.
04:55 If Minnesota is going to win, and even the Western Conference series at one game apiece
05:00 tonight DRS, and maybe even cover as a five and a half point favorite, how many points
05:05 does Anthony Edwards need to score?
05:07 - Yeah, he's got to get into the 30s tonight.
05:09 I mean, that's my marking point.
05:10 So obviously if you say, "Well, I like his over 30," you're going to cash in his points
05:13 prop, which is 27 and a half.
05:15 And immediately, you heard me say this after game number one, I'm looking forward to Anthony
05:19 Edwards playing tonight.
05:20 Not especially happy with how he played in game seven and game number one.
05:23 Keep in mind, two high-leverage situations for a young player that hasn't been in those
05:26 environments.
05:27 But the team still won that game number seven.
05:29 They lost game number one.
05:30 I expect a much more efficient effort and still look for him to shoot at least 20 times
05:35 tonight.
05:36 Just cut down the three-point shots, get to the free throw a little bit more, and get
05:38 more aggressive, which could lead to foul trouble for the Dallas Mavericks and easier
05:42 open looks for guys like Carl Anthony Towns from three-point range.
05:45 Drive to the basket, kick out, wide open three, that usually helps here.
05:48 So I think Anthony Edwards, 30 points is the number I'm looking for him to hit tonight.
05:53 And if he does that, I do think that's a victory for the Minnesota Timberwolves.
05:56 - So 27 and a half is his points prop to go over, and then to get to 30 plus is plus 125,
06:03 a little bit of plus money.
06:05 If he's over 27 and a half, he needs one more bucket to get to 30 with plus money on the
06:10 other side.
06:11 Carl Anthony Towns was also not great in game number one.
06:14 That's your silver lining for the Timberwolves.
06:17 Your two superstars combined to go 12 of 32 from the floor.
06:21 That's 37 and a half percent, and you lost by three.
06:24 The leading scorer for Minnesota, Jaden McDaniels, who has scored 21 plus in three straight for
06:31 the Timberwolves.
06:32 His points prop tonight is at 11 and a hook, maybe now up to 12 and a half.
06:38 Yeah, 12 and a half is that updated number on the FanDuel Sportsbook as I see it.
06:43 He's gone over that in three straight.
06:45 He hit six threes in game number one.
06:48 He's gone over 12 and a half in five of the 12 playoff games Minnesota has played.
06:54 In four of the five, he has made at least two threes.
06:58 I would look at two plus made threes for Jaden McDaniels tonight.
07:03 A couple of prop outlooks, of course, for the Mavericks, highlighted by Luka Doncic
07:07 and Kyrie Irving.
07:08 Then I'll give you a best bet before I go, and Donny Rightside will take over to close
07:14 us out.
07:15 It's like, listen up, Brian Cornett, up next, live right here on this Friday on The Early
07:20 Line.
07:21 Live right here on this Friday on The Early Line.
07:24 A little bit more segment together, but for me, it's just a few more minutes as Big Blue,
07:28 Mike Blewett, steps up and in on Newswire, live from our New York City studios.
07:33 That means Donny Rightside will close out the show.
07:37 So DRS, let's quickly look at the Mavericks props for tonight.
07:41 Luka Doncic, 29 and a half is his points prop.
07:44 He scored 33 in game number one.
07:46 23 in a hook is the number for Kyrie Irving.
07:49 He hit the 30 point benchmark for the first time in this postseason run for Dallas in
07:54 game number one.
07:56 Are you expecting either of those two guys to go over their number once again?
08:01 Here's the good part about the early parts of a series, Ben.
08:03 You're still trying to feel the other team out.
08:05 What's the one thing that the Minnesota Timberwolves, after game number one, have said to themselves,
08:08 probably in the defensive locker room here at this point, saying, "You know what?
08:11 We can't let both of these superstars go off.
08:13 We got to take one of those players away."
08:15 Now that's easier said than done.
08:16 "Hey, let's stop Luka."
08:17 Oh, good luck with that.
08:18 "Hey, let's stop Kyrie."
08:20 Same thing.
08:21 But I look at those secondary players, which you take a look at P.J. Washington, who has
08:24 had some pretty good playoff games.
08:26 The past couple have been a little bit down.
08:27 So if I'm the Minnesota Timberwolves, I'm saying, "Kyrie's not getting off like he did
08:31 here."
08:32 And certainly Luka Doncic, we're going to try to slow down, which leaves, yes, here's
08:35 the best opportunity to win.
08:37 Role players on away teams, home courts, you are going to try to fade those guys.
08:41 I'm not going to do that today because I think more shots will be available from three point
08:45 range for the Dallas Mavericks.
08:46 That's the way I would go.
08:47 But for me, I'm actually going to stay away from Luka Doncic and also stay away from Kyrie
08:51 Irving.
08:52 Because I said again, I think they lose this basketball game and Anthony Edwards on the
08:55 opposite side, certainly at that 27 and a half points, makes a lot of sense.
08:58 But I would look at secondary value options for Minnesota, excuse me, for Dallas after
09:03 game number one with the adjustments from the Minnesota Timberwolves.
09:07 Just to make this final point, Kyrie's points prop entering game one was 20 and a half.
09:12 It's now up by three.
09:13 If you want a silver lining for Dallas offensively, just six of 25 in game number one from three,
09:19 24 percent.
09:20 All right, DRS, I'm going to give you two best bets for this Friday.
09:24 Then you close it out.
09:25 I start with the NBA as we were looking at game number two.
09:29 I think Carl Anthony Towns also has a better game.
09:32 Over two and a half made threes at plus 104 with a little bit of plus money does intrigue
09:38 me tonight against Dallas.
09:40 [Music]
09:42 (upbeat music)